2009 CFB POW Week #4

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Rx. Senior
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that's it for me today. were sitting at 33 with a tomorrow left about a hour b4 game time

post em if you got em

nite and glta
 

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thurs:
OLE MISS

FRI:
NEVADA

SAT:
PENN ST
MISS ST
TOLEDO
KENT ST
ARKANSAS
KANSAS
 

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pops this is cool thanks

i know you want weekday games but i,m not betting thurs. game do u still
want a pick ?
 

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pops this is cool thanks

i know you want weekday games but i,m not betting thurs. game do u still
want a pick ?

I'll answer since he's gone for the night. Yes, you can bet either of the weekday games if want to. If not, don't. But Sat, you can only bet up to 5 games total.
 

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SC (+)
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Nevada (+)
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Minnesota (+)
Virginia Tech (+)
Idaho (+)
Stanford

-ETC
 

Seahawk
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ole miss
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Missouri
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iowa
VA TECH
navy
boston college
tcu
 

Rx. Senior
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pops this is cool thanks

i know you want weekday games but i,m not betting thurs. game do u still
want a pick ?

if you dont like either dont take any of them. i dont what coin filips, just those for those games that are either betting the side they post and or really fell that's the side they want to bet

tks
 

Rx. Senior
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now wer cooking

sitting at 36, so would love to get 50 yet b4 game time which is 7:45pm est. i'll close everything off for todays game at 6:45pm est so that i can read the tea leaves

bad news is that those 36 as well as tomorrows game are split 50/50. right down the middle. so need as many with pow record and strong likes to.

post em if you got em
 

Rx. Senior
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So I need at least 10 for a good sample size?

no not enough, plus not that simple either. i'll go into more detail once i get all my data from yesterday updated. if that was the case those opinion polls you see pop up on almost every sport are as useless as tits on a bull. number on one side or the other have nothing to do with it unless you know who's betting on which game and there w/l records over the season. save your time and energy on those type of threads. not worth the effort.
 

Rx. Senior
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good news for those that use sports options, as it just got mo bettor. they now have all the archives avail for Line moves as well and Public % avail

i was able to do 2 weeks of cfb on some data that i wanted to start collecting into one of my spreadsheets and did it with the old fat fingers in less than an hour. so many diff options all events game 1st or 2nd half all lines, open and closing etc

best part is that i was able to dump the output into excel (they might close off that loop hole) but for now it works. and if you can get data into excel it's easy to do with it as you please in a matter of a few min

below is the procedure to use if you want to give it a try. easy as pie. no more to i have to worry about staying up late or getting up early to capture everything i need into my data base. give it a spin

Just released a new version of SportsOptions that includes archive information. To view the percentages from last year:<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
1.Go to the ‘Archives’ menu<o:p></o:p>
2.Select ‘Line History’<o:p></o:p>
3.Select your sport<o:p></o:p>
4.In the next column, select ‘Public%’<o:p></o:p>
5.Select the date<o:p></o:p>
6.If you want to see the data for all games, leave the ‘All events’ option selected. If you just want to see data for some of the games, select the ‘Select events’ option and then select the events you want to view. You can select multiple events by holding the ‘ctrl’ key while you click on the events.<o:p></o:p>
7.Click ‘View’. If you select ‘All events’, it will take a minutes for the data to come up.
 

Rx. Senior
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So I need at least 10 for a good sample size?

jess: here's the way i look at it, so not only is the number of people that post a play critical, but you also need to have at least 5 on top with high w/l records and 5 on the bottom with low w/l records

1. select the game you want and use the drop down filter arrows to select both games (the abv names col 6 and 7 which in the case of south carolina and ol miss would be the s car and miss. this will bring up a list of everyones pow and there won and lost record (if no games yet for the week you use the col a, b and c, if already a bunch of games you use the bg, bh and bi cols

2. select all of the rx capper names and past them into a blank tab on the work sheet
3. select all of the w/l recors for those cappers in that same worksheet to the left of there names (use the appropriate w/l depending on the day of the game. i always use the one on the left for the 1st game, than go to the right area after a game has been played
4. copy the pow selection to the right of the capper
(these 1st 4 lines of instructions should take a max of 1 min at most)
5. go back to the drop down filter and select all again so that you dont fuck up the spreadsheet and want to do other analysis for diff games etc

6. hightlight the 5 rows and col with the data you put into the blank worksheet and do a sort on col c (highest to lowest) takes about 10 seconds

7. now you have the data to look at and try to determine if there is a decent play on that game

8. highlight in yellow the top 5 and bottom rx cappers (anyone with less than 2 weeks of pow data (that number will increase as you get more weeks into play but right now using 2 as a cut off

9. determine how many people of the top and bottom 5 are on each game

all of the above is a max of 2 min in terms of time and effort, now comes the important part

if the top have team a and the bottom have team b you go with team a (eg 3 of the 5 on top and 3 of the five on the bottom) have the opp side your home free and good to go. but it's not always that clear cut, esp if both the top and the bottom have 3 or more on the same game eg both have team a to win

here's the most important part. you always fade the bottom players selection, no go with the better players selection

so if both are 3/3 on team a you would go with team b. all you have to remember is that the bottom players are always the best and always rule

so you can see why it's very difficult to have a valid pow on a sat game you just dont have a good distribution to make a decent decision, and remember if you have a top and bottom where both ends w/l are coin flippers (than you have to pass) as the numbers are useless

right now i dont want to say anything about thur or fridays games and influence the remainder of the pow. just like talking head to with all the bs the put on paper or over the air waves

the process is very easy and works out very well, much better than any of you would expect

enjoy
 

"My Other Vehicle Is a Locomotive"
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9/24 #302 S. CAROLINA +

Tidbit:
Ole Miss has failed to cover 11 straight SEC openers.
 

Rx. Senior
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were at 40 now but still close to dead even. almost every 60/40 capper changes the dynamics of the results

post em if you got em
 

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