Bears defense is the one to watch here. The personnel is pretty similar to 2006 and in some areas better on paper (though a couple years older). If they can recapture what they had on defense in 2006 then they are a contender. Are Orton and Forte/K Jones worse than Grossman/T Jones & Benson? Not really. It's all about the defense. That said, it may have been a one-game wonder and Indy themselves were just not in sync. But the defense had flashes of '06. Bears went from about 7-1 to 2-1 co-favorites to win the division.
Comes down to the health of Tommie Harris. If he can stay healthy, Bears win 9+ games.