<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Please don't refrain from posting the information you have. People should be able to weed out sarcasim or wit and see the value of what is being said by not only you, but by alot of experienced cappers <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This is an important statement that we all need to remember, I remember at times I have been sensetive with the remarks of others on these threads about my posts...we must all remember that we all have different personalities...some of us are prim & proper & very polite...other's are to the point...I dont think anyone here is trying insult others...simply some interesting debates...
This is an important statement that we all need to remember, I remember at times I have been sensetive with the remarks of others on these threads about my posts...we must all remember that we all have different personalities...some of us are prim & proper & very polite...other's are to the point...I dont think anyone here is trying insult others...simply some interesting debates...
Sure we are all here to help eachother and this polite stuff is all very nice. But gambling is a ruthless industry. You think these books give a shit about who they offend when they take our money? No. We are all betting hard earned cash here and if reading something that annoys or offends you for a minute saves you or others $100, $200, $500 over a year that you would have lost buying hooks, betting parlays, teasers, bad money management, chasing e.t.c IMO it is a lesson well learned.
I apologize again but I am not trying to point out particular people these are just things I have noticed as I have read and as we are all here to help eachother am trying to help other posters from not getting into bad habits. I am quite happy to sound like an asshole for one day if it makes one single person never again buy a hook on an nba total again!
I apologize again but I am not trying to point out particular people these are just things I have noticed as I have read and as we are all here to help eachother am trying to help other posters from not getting into bad habits. I am quite happy to sound like an asshole for one day if it makes one single person never again buy a hook on an nba total again!
"BUYING POINTS IS A HUGE WASTE OF MONEY GET DIFFERENT OUTLETS AND SHOP FOR THAT HALF POINT"
well said VALUEMAN did that offend anybody?
"I for one play 4% of my bankroll per play or 6% on my best plays (very rare) I adjust daily so if I'm hot I go up and when I'm cold I go down"
Readjusting on a daily basis is good but 4-6% is too high. If you bet for a medium length period is it amazing how brutal some losing streaks can get 5-15 streaks or worse are very common in samples of 1000 bets. You may be ok for quite a while but eventually that killer losing streak will bite you in the nuts and you will feel it, as I do at least 3 times a year. At when I say killer I mean the equilavent of 0-15 or worse over a period of say a month the type that effects your sleep.
Many will argue that to maximize profits they need to bet bigger on top plays. I kind of agree but I would say this. No play is that much of a lock unless it is backed up by a significant market move. So if you bet Under 200 and it closes 198 or you bet Team A -5.5 and they close -7 then sure you are justified in betting a little more. If you are not getting these line moves then no locks exist. If the bet is that much of a lock at -5 5 minutes before the tip chances are some other guys were betting it at -3.5 -4 -4.5 e.t.c earlier in the day and getting much more value than you. To make your bet a lock you need to be betting earlier and getting -3.5 or -4 yourself so that then you truly do have a good bet. The key to this is that if a line moves enough even if your bet loses you have great consolation in that you were on the right side of the market move.
While the need to maximise profits from top plays is important another key to maximising profit is to minimise losses from losing bets. The point is this. In order to maximise profits you need a large bankroll to take advantage of good betting opportunities. The bigger the bankroll the more you can bet. But when you lose (and this particularly applies to big plays, GOYs e.t.c) you are giving up a big protion of your bankroll that could be invested in other bets later on and you have to reduce your wager size. The most extreme example of this is when you are completely broke you have no funds to take advantage of any profitable betting opportunities at all!
So by all means have your 50 unit plays but remember when they lose you will not be able to bet so big when that same great situation comes up again in the future, unless you want to risk going broke. Some bettors like myself are so risk averse we bet the same every single play we bet whether we like it a lot or just a little. The reason being the risks of greatly reducing your bankroll if you go 0-3 on big plays are just too big to outweigh the benefits. It's great if they win but you are comprimising your bankroll significantly if it all goes wrong. If you are a solid capper all your plays should be contributing to building bankroll without the need to take big risks.
The other thing with solid money management is this, you only benefit from it when you are losing. When you are winning think how much more you could have won by putting a little extra on that top play or doubling down on that late game after losing the first. It is only when you lose that top play or late game. Then procede to lose several other top plays or late games in succession that you will really feel the benefits of your solid low risk, low% staking system.
Unless you are a professional you are never going to win large amounts from sports gambling and so if you are a casual bettor/newbie the emphasis should be much more on preserving your existing bankroll by being safe than by taking chances on top plays and risking going broke. By being safe you can still get a lot of the benefits of winning without the downside when quite frequently it can all go horribly wrong. Also if you are a newbie by playing safe and only losing a little early you give yourself time to get the knowledge and experience to become a breakeven or profitable handicapper in the long run. Newbies that bet too big too quick go broke and don't give themselves the time to pick up these skills of line shopping/ road faves sucking/ reduced vig shops e.t.c
Playing safe early on is the only reason I am here today!
well said VALUEMAN did that offend anybody?
"I for one play 4% of my bankroll per play or 6% on my best plays (very rare) I adjust daily so if I'm hot I go up and when I'm cold I go down"
Readjusting on a daily basis is good but 4-6% is too high. If you bet for a medium length period is it amazing how brutal some losing streaks can get 5-15 streaks or worse are very common in samples of 1000 bets. You may be ok for quite a while but eventually that killer losing streak will bite you in the nuts and you will feel it, as I do at least 3 times a year. At when I say killer I mean the equilavent of 0-15 or worse over a period of say a month the type that effects your sleep.
Many will argue that to maximize profits they need to bet bigger on top plays. I kind of agree but I would say this. No play is that much of a lock unless it is backed up by a significant market move. So if you bet Under 200 and it closes 198 or you bet Team A -5.5 and they close -7 then sure you are justified in betting a little more. If you are not getting these line moves then no locks exist. If the bet is that much of a lock at -5 5 minutes before the tip chances are some other guys were betting it at -3.5 -4 -4.5 e.t.c earlier in the day and getting much more value than you. To make your bet a lock you need to be betting earlier and getting -3.5 or -4 yourself so that then you truly do have a good bet. The key to this is that if a line moves enough even if your bet loses you have great consolation in that you were on the right side of the market move.
While the need to maximise profits from top plays is important another key to maximising profit is to minimise losses from losing bets. The point is this. In order to maximise profits you need a large bankroll to take advantage of good betting opportunities. The bigger the bankroll the more you can bet. But when you lose (and this particularly applies to big plays, GOYs e.t.c) you are giving up a big protion of your bankroll that could be invested in other bets later on and you have to reduce your wager size. The most extreme example of this is when you are completely broke you have no funds to take advantage of any profitable betting opportunities at all!
So by all means have your 50 unit plays but remember when they lose you will not be able to bet so big when that same great situation comes up again in the future, unless you want to risk going broke. Some bettors like myself are so risk averse we bet the same every single play we bet whether we like it a lot or just a little. The reason being the risks of greatly reducing your bankroll if you go 0-3 on big plays are just too big to outweigh the benefits. It's great if they win but you are comprimising your bankroll significantly if it all goes wrong. If you are a solid capper all your plays should be contributing to building bankroll without the need to take big risks.
The other thing with solid money management is this, you only benefit from it when you are losing. When you are winning think how much more you could have won by putting a little extra on that top play or doubling down on that late game after losing the first. It is only when you lose that top play or late game. Then procede to lose several other top plays or late games in succession that you will really feel the benefits of your solid low risk, low% staking system.
Unless you are a professional you are never going to win large amounts from sports gambling and so if you are a casual bettor/newbie the emphasis should be much more on preserving your existing bankroll by being safe than by taking chances on top plays and risking going broke. By being safe you can still get a lot of the benefits of winning without the downside when quite frequently it can all go horribly wrong. Also if you are a newbie by playing safe and only losing a little early you give yourself time to get the knowledge and experience to become a breakeven or profitable handicapper in the long run. Newbies that bet too big too quick go broke and don't give themselves the time to pick up these skills of line shopping/ road faves sucking/ reduced vig shops e.t.c
Playing safe early on is the only reason I am here today!
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Readjusting on a daily basis is good but 4-6% is too high. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
this is really relative is it not?...after all this is gambling & certain people may be willing to take greater risks for greater returns...in the example discussed the bankroll was 1000$, for most people this is not a very large amount of money...so the gambler must answer the question
how much risk are you willing to tolerate? kind of the same thing before deciding if one wants to purchase stocks or mutual funds...in the end if one wants to take a higher risk & is aware of the potential rewards vs risks...then I would suggest that Zapster's advice, example is fine.
If on the other hand someone with 100,000$ bankroll comes to you for advice...wants to get in the game but wants the most solid advice available & plans to grind this out & do this in an attempt to slightly supplement his income, I would agree, most definately...the % per play must be lower.
Of course everything is relative to how much money you have & what you would like your exposure to risk being...
this is really relative is it not?...after all this is gambling & certain people may be willing to take greater risks for greater returns...in the example discussed the bankroll was 1000$, for most people this is not a very large amount of money...so the gambler must answer the question
how much risk are you willing to tolerate? kind of the same thing before deciding if one wants to purchase stocks or mutual funds...in the end if one wants to take a higher risk & is aware of the potential rewards vs risks...then I would suggest that Zapster's advice, example is fine.
If on the other hand someone with 100,000$ bankroll comes to you for advice...wants to get in the game but wants the most solid advice available & plans to grind this out & do this in an attempt to slightly supplement his income, I would agree, most definately...the % per play must be lower.
Of course everything is relative to how much money you have & what you would like your exposure to risk being...
I think you have it nailed there SportSavant. It really is a matter of individual goals. Hey...some guys are looking for "action" and would be bored silly making $20 bets with a dime in their accounts. The problem I have with the way this thread started out is that we have a guy spewing "mortal locks" all over the place, advising people to hit plays hard....and then, after a bad day, getting on a soapbox and attacking other people's money management strategies. Sorry....but calling things "mortal locks" and throwing around words like "guarantee" and then in the next breath bashing anybody who advises playing more than 2% of BR on any play.....well that just sounds a tad inconsistent to me. Call me crazy.
Now I do absolutely agree that if you have an edge....and I daresay a lot of the cappers here (Braveheart certainly included) do have an edge)....meaning you are hitting over 53%, then you do want to spread your action over as many plays as possible so that a bad streak doesn't torpedo you.
From my own perspective, the ONLY time I feel I have an edge is when playing NBA totals...AFTER the third week of the season. So there is a decent, but nevertheless limited, amount of time to let this work for me. That is why I say $4 per unit on a $1,000 bankroll. At that level I feel you are giving yourself a shot to make some decent money, while SOMEWHAT protecting yourself against a bad streak.
But it comes down to this.....some people here have regular incomes and are doing this recreationally. In these cases I don't think the same rules that "professional gamblers" use apply. Sure...going an average of 4% per play with the occasional 8% is very risky.....and absolutely can lead to a zero bankroll. But a recreational player can handle that kind of risk, whereas a professional gambler....who is basically screwed in real life if his bankroll is gone.....cannot take that risk.
This has been a good topic in spite of all the "quips." Braveheart....I have a ton of respect for you as a capper, but you did kinda call me out.
Now I do absolutely agree that if you have an edge....and I daresay a lot of the cappers here (Braveheart certainly included) do have an edge)....meaning you are hitting over 53%, then you do want to spread your action over as many plays as possible so that a bad streak doesn't torpedo you.
From my own perspective, the ONLY time I feel I have an edge is when playing NBA totals...AFTER the third week of the season. So there is a decent, but nevertheless limited, amount of time to let this work for me. That is why I say $4 per unit on a $1,000 bankroll. At that level I feel you are giving yourself a shot to make some decent money, while SOMEWHAT protecting yourself against a bad streak.
But it comes down to this.....some people here have regular incomes and are doing this recreationally. In these cases I don't think the same rules that "professional gamblers" use apply. Sure...going an average of 4% per play with the occasional 8% is very risky.....and absolutely can lead to a zero bankroll. But a recreational player can handle that kind of risk, whereas a professional gambler....who is basically screwed in real life if his bankroll is gone.....cannot take that risk.
This has been a good topic in spite of all the "quips." Braveheart....I have a ton of respect for you as a capper, but you did kinda call me out.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The problem I have with the way this thread started out is that we have a guy spewing "mortal locks" all over the place, advising people to hit plays hard....and then, after a bad day, getting on a soapbox and attacking other people's money management strategies. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
although I agree fully with this, I would hope that most rx posters have the ability to distinguish between jest & reality...braveheart uses an element of 'jest' in his posts with his 'NbaAsia' theme...hopefully most thread readers who read his posts are able to make the distinction & take the 'mortal lock' type words for what they are...a joke. If other's have been unaware & have taken his plays with 'reckless abandon' I would suggest that I dont feel too sorry for them in the first place.
I think it is great how we have used this thread to discuss these issues...after all that is what these places are for.
kudos to all who contributed, zapster, braveheart & others...
although I agree fully with this, I would hope that most rx posters have the ability to distinguish between jest & reality...braveheart uses an element of 'jest' in his posts with his 'NbaAsia' theme...hopefully most thread readers who read his posts are able to make the distinction & take the 'mortal lock' type words for what they are...a joke. If other's have been unaware & have taken his plays with 'reckless abandon' I would suggest that I dont feel too sorry for them in the first place.
I think it is great how we have used this thread to discuss these issues...after all that is what these places are for.
kudos to all who contributed, zapster, braveheart & others...
Personally, I love the bantor. If you think any one pick is a lock, you are probably in for a long life of gambling.
Consider, Braveheart just posting his plays without the crazy stories and guarnteed picks. I think it would be a bit boring. His "service"-like statements only make his postings that more unique and enjoyable.
Anyways, I look forward to today's version of the Macau Tales.
BOL to all.
Consider, Braveheart just posting his plays without the crazy stories and guarnteed picks. I think it would be a bit boring. His "service"-like statements only make his postings that more unique and enjoyable.
Anyways, I look forward to today's version of the Macau Tales.
BOL to all.
