1st "Biggest Bet of Year" Play(Boise st -23)

BigGamesOnly · Oct 7, 2003

Sixth:

I think one thing we have to look at when reviewing stats is how some games may skew the stats making them a bit off. One of those games was Boise St. against Idaho. I think a lot of people here had Boise St. (including me) when we should have taken into consideration the fact that they were looking ahead to the next week at Oregon St. and didn't give a full performance.

Given that, I still think you make a valid point that Boise St. has not faced a team that runs for a good portion of their offense. All 5 teams they have faced have been passing teams. Tulsa's run game will test the Boise St. run defense eating up precious minutes that will give less time for Boise to run up the score.

RX-MANIAC · Oct 7, 2003

I do not like Boise this week....I will not be playing the game.....But I would have to lean to TULSA!
I hate going against Boise when they are on "The Blue!"
But...I'm with BIG Games Only here....Tulsa would be my play!

My 2-Cents...Rx-Maniac

batmanforever · Oct 7, 2003

Hi Everyone... This is not the guy.. Who all of us think he is!!! He is not Glvn...Be awared!!!
Go back few weeks you will know whom I am talking about...
Tulsa will hanging with Boise St.. Boise have not cover a game this year!!. Boise is not used to me Boise anymore!!

Big_Orange · Oct 7, 2003

good to see you find one you like. I hope it works for you. Would like to see -21 again on this game before I take it.

muffinman · Oct 8, 2003

Glen,
What is with all these non-believers? They obviously weren't around last year when you went an amazing 12 or 13-1 on your "Biggest" Bets. I still believe. You are definitely the most educated capper in the WAC. That along with your past rcord and your methodical patience for a "BIG" play is why I am backing you and jumping on the BLUE.

jwunderdog · Oct 8, 2003

Why did you change your posting name? it is different from last year?

oldirtyku · Oct 8, 2003

it was glennlovecolleen2 last year... i was wondering y he changed it?

glennlovecolleen3 · Oct 8, 2003

I forgot the password and I de-activated the email address I signed up for it with, so I got a new email and username.

pops69 · Oct 8, 2003

i played the hell out of BS last year and won most of the time with them. they are not the same team as last year. 23 would be too much for me to lay, and i think the over might be a better bet. if you like this game so much post it as your game of the week in the thread for all to look at

primetime21+ · Oct 8, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by nilson:
Hi Everyone... This is not the guy.. Who all of us think he is!!! He is not Glvn...Be awared!!!
Go back few weeks you will know whom I am talking about...
Tulsa will hanging with Boise St.. Boise have not cover a game this year!!. Boise is not used to me Boise anymore!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Be awared?

glennlovecolleen3 · Oct 8, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by primetime21:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by nilson:
Hi Everyone... This is not the guy.. Who all of us think he is!!! He is not Glvn...Be awared!!!
Go back few weeks you will know whom I am talking about...
Tulsa will hanging with Boise St.. Boise have not cover a game this year!!. Boise is not used to me Boise anymore!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Be awared?

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Glvn?

WCBias · Oct 8, 2003

When you say Boise State hasn't played a running team, keep in mind they played against the best running back in the nation (Steven Jackson, Oregon State) and held him to 122 years on 30 carries.

Offensively, there is no comparison. Dinwiddie almost passed for more yards in his last game than Killian has in his four games against Div. 1 teams combined. As far as Boise State's running game, they have an excellent running back who has gained nearly as many yards as Tulsa's top two running backs combined.

As for Boise State's performance before and after Oregon State. Before (Idaho) they were looking ahead, and afterward they were simply worn down and emotionally drained after the Oregon State game. They beat a pretty good team last week on the road, and get one of the worst teams in the WAC at home on the blue turf.

I'm with Glenn/Colleen here, I think Boise State lays the wood big time. Boise State is the best team in the WAC, and will show it this week.

Boise State 48 - Tulsa 17

DanTanna · Oct 9, 2003

Sixth Sense did a good job making a counter point, but I'm with Glenn on this one.
He's proven himself time and time again.
Don't hate the playa

SixthSense · Oct 9, 2003

Perception versus Reality

There is no question Boise is the better team here.

There is no question Boise should win this game.

The point in question is if Boise is good enough to cover the 23 or so points.

Steven Jackson is probably the best running back in the league but the Oregon State rushing offense IS NOT very good. They are averaging 3.9 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr so they have not done a very good job of running the ball. He has had two good games, from a yards per rush perspective, and the rest of his games have been average, at best. Also, in that game Boise allowed over 11 yards per pass so obviously OSU chose to attack in a different manner.

Dinwiddie passed for more yards in his last game than Tulsa in almost 4 Division I games. Well, first Dinwiddie passed 60 times last game so I hope he passed for some yards. Also, Tulsa runs the ball 58% of the time so he should have more yards throwing.

Mickell has gained as much as Tulsa's two top backs. First, Killian leads the team in rushing so that's not a fair comparison. Take out Mickell's performance against a non-Division I team and he has averaged 5.0 yards per rush and take out his performance against Idaho (another team worse than Tulsa) and he has averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per rush. He'll get his yards in this game because the Tulsa rush defense isn't that good but he'll probably fumble again as he has done already twice this year in key situations. If he keeps that up he won't even be playing. In his last three games, he's only averaging 74 yards per game against L. Tech and Wyoming who have bad rush defenses as well.

Boise was looking ahead to Oregon and letdown after the Oregon State game. Boy, I would rather deal with facts than perceptions and assumptions. And if Boise was doing that, and won a key game last week, how do they get up for the worse team in the WAC?

Bottom line here is Boise has not displayed the type of performance this year that people are saying they will perform this week and Tulsa has not looked as bad as some people are trying to portray them as. Yes, Minnesota and Arkansas beat them badly but those two teams are also much, much better than Boise.

The problem with playing Boise, IMO, other than asking them to display the performance they haven't displayed yet this year is they could be ahead by 30 points and still not cover because of the backdoor capability of Tulsa. And Tulsa will eat up clock in their games. Tulsa, in their game against Arkansas controlled the ball for almost 37 minutes of 60 minutes. Tough to win by big margins when they are controlling that much time.

And, I said it before and I'll say it again. I respect Glenn's propensity to pick big games, I just disagree with this one.

glennlovecolleen3 · Oct 11, 2003

45 minutes till game time!!!
It's going to be exciting!!
Can't wait!!

jus000 · Oct 11, 2003

how about we all just take the over so everyone is happy?

justin

mws · Oct 11, 2003

Great stuff, Sixth. Wish I'd read it before kickoff. Game's in progress; we' ll see how it turns out....

sphincter · Oct 11, 2003

glen....i`ve been around here for awhile and i have to say,this one`s gonna be a tough cover at 20-7 late in the 3rd.....i hope you get there....but,if you don`t,i know you are gonna take some heat....

you touted this first play for weeks and i`m sure many are gonna hurt a bit if it doesn`t hit......i know you can take the heat....i hope you pull it out.....

best of luck to you....

glennlovecolleen3 · Oct 11, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by sphincter:
glen....i`ve been around here for awhile and i have to say,this one`s gonna be a tough cover at 20-7 late in the 3rd.....i hope you get there....but,if you don`t,i know you are gonna take some heat....

you touted this first play for weeks and i`m sure many are gonna hurt a bit if it doesn`t hit......i know you can take the heat....i hope you pull it out.....

best of luck to you....<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The only thing bad, is that losing this game, I end my long streak of never having a losing week that lasted since all of last season, but nah, it's not going to hurt though. If this one game loses, it's only one play, no big deal. As long as I am on the plus side when it's all said and done by the end of the season, it's all good. Take care.

glennlovecolleen3 · Oct 11, 2003

game still going, but boise st won't cover already so I'll post results:

"Biggest Bet of Year" plays:
0-1 (-5.5 u)

Hope most of you had a great day.