Wunderdog Sports
BELMONT PARK Race #3 (THE BROOKLYN INVITATIONAL (G2)) at 12:40 PM Eastern
Top pick: #3 (MICROMANAGE) (7-2) - This $500K G2 stakes is run at the "Belmont Stakes" distance of 1 1/2 miles, and the trainers in that big event will keep an eye on this contest to see how the track is "playing." This colt has been a solid "second stringer" for the Pletcher operation and looked very sharp when winning the G3 "Skip Away" stakes in late March at Gulfstream. He disappointed here as the favorite in a follow up start, but has been working fast since. 4yo son of "Medaglia d'Oro" gets a slight edge in a competitive contest.
2nd pick: #1 (Eriugena) (10-1) - Longshot enters in career best form and has won two in a row for the high percentage barn of Mike Maker. Irish-bred earned a career best figure last out at Churchill, and 4yo should have no problem handling the 12-furlong distance.
3rd pick: #2 (Ground Transport) (4-1) - The main speed, he's gone 13-5-4-0 racing on real dirt, and has won two stakes in a row in front-running style. Colt by "Derby" & "Preakness" winner "Big Brown" won here going 10-furlongs on May 4, and was a bit over a length better than "Micromanage" that afternoon. Working fast for this and must be left in the mix.
4th pick: #4 (Cat Burglar) (5-2) - Very lightly raced 4yo is 6-3-2-1 on conventional dirt, and last out finished a close up third in the G3 "Pimlico Special" on May 16. Stalker is still improving, is working fast, and resides in the barn of "Hall of Famer" Bob Baffert.
BELMONT PARK Race #3 (THE BROOKLYN INVITATIONAL (G2)) at 12:40 PM Eastern
Top pick: #3 (MICROMANAGE) (7-2) - This $500K G2 stakes is run at the "Belmont Stakes" distance of 1 1/2 miles, and the trainers in that big event will keep an eye on this contest to see how the track is "playing." This colt has been a solid "second stringer" for the Pletcher operation and looked very sharp when winning the G3 "Skip Away" stakes in late March at Gulfstream. He disappointed here as the favorite in a follow up start, but has been working fast since. 4yo son of "Medaglia d'Oro" gets a slight edge in a competitive contest.
2nd pick: #1 (Eriugena) (10-1) - Longshot enters in career best form and has won two in a row for the high percentage barn of Mike Maker. Irish-bred earned a career best figure last out at Churchill, and 4yo should have no problem handling the 12-furlong distance.
3rd pick: #2 (Ground Transport) (4-1) - The main speed, he's gone 13-5-4-0 racing on real dirt, and has won two stakes in a row in front-running style. Colt by "Derby" & "Preakness" winner "Big Brown" won here going 10-furlongs on May 4, and was a bit over a length better than "Micromanage" that afternoon. Working fast for this and must be left in the mix.
4th pick: #4 (Cat Burglar) (5-2) - Very lightly raced 4yo is 6-3-2-1 on conventional dirt, and last out finished a close up third in the G3 "Pimlico Special" on May 16. Stalker is still improving, is working fast, and resides in the barn of "Hall of Famer" Bob Baffert.
Complete Belmont Card courtesy of AgainstTheNumber
Race 1
Choice Horse: 2
Additional Selections In Order: 7,9
Long shot play? 5
Personal Play: 2,7,9,5 Exacta Box
Race 2
Choice Horse: 4
Additional Selections In Order: 1,7
Long shot play? 2
Personal Play: 4,1,7,2 Exacta Box
Race 3
Choice Horse: 3
Additional Selections In Order: 4,2
Long shot play? 1
Personal Play: N/A
Race 4
Choice Horse: 10
Additional Selections In Order: 8,9,11
Long shot play? 2
Personal Play: 10,8,9,11 Exacta Box
Race 5
Choice Horse: 11
Additional Selections In Order: 8,3,5
Long shot play?
Personal Play: PICK 3- 11,8,3,5/8,3,7,5/5,1,6
Race 6
Choice Horse: 8
Additional Selections In Order: 3,7,5
Long shot play? 12
Personal Play: N/A
Race 7
Choice Horse: 5
Additional Selections In Order: 1,6
Long shot play? 2
Personal Play: N/A
Race 8
Choice Horse: 6
Additional Selections In Order: 10,4,9
Long shot play? 5
Personal Play: PICK 4- 6,10,4,9/1,10,9,13/8,4,1,5/2,11,5,7
Race 9
Choice Horse: 1
Additional Selections In Order: 10,9,13
Long shot play? 4
Personal Play: N/A
Race 10
Choice Horse: 8
Additional Selections In Order: 4,1,5
Long shot play? 10
Personal Play: Daily Double- ALL/7
Race 11
Choice Horse: 2
Additional Selections In Order: 11,5,7
Long shot play? 10
Personal Play: 2,11,5,7,10 Trifecta Box
Race 12
Choice Horse: 7
Additional Selections In Order: 4,12
Long shot play? 1
Personal Play: 7,4,12,1 Exacta Box
Race 13
Choice Horse: 12
Additional Selections In Order: 14,9
Long shot play? 1
Personal Play: N/A
Race 1
Choice Horse: 2
Additional Selections In Order: 7,9
Long shot play? 5
Personal Play: 2,7,9,5 Exacta Box
Race 2
Choice Horse: 4
Additional Selections In Order: 1,7
Long shot play? 2
Personal Play: 4,1,7,2 Exacta Box
Race 3
Choice Horse: 3
Additional Selections In Order: 4,2
Long shot play? 1
Personal Play: N/A
Race 4
Choice Horse: 10
Additional Selections In Order: 8,9,11
Long shot play? 2
Personal Play: 10,8,9,11 Exacta Box
Race 5
Choice Horse: 11
Additional Selections In Order: 8,3,5
Long shot play?
Personal Play: PICK 3- 11,8,3,5/8,3,7,5/5,1,6
Race 6
Choice Horse: 8
Additional Selections In Order: 3,7,5
Long shot play? 12
Personal Play: N/A
Race 7
Choice Horse: 5
Additional Selections In Order: 1,6
Long shot play? 2
Personal Play: N/A
Race 8
Choice Horse: 6
Additional Selections In Order: 10,4,9
Long shot play? 5
Personal Play: PICK 4- 6,10,4,9/1,10,9,13/8,4,1,5/2,11,5,7
Race 9
Choice Horse: 1
Additional Selections In Order: 10,9,13
Long shot play? 4
Personal Play: N/A
Race 10
Choice Horse: 8
Additional Selections In Order: 4,1,5
Long shot play? 10
Personal Play: Daily Double- ALL/7
Race 11
Choice Horse: 2
Additional Selections In Order: 11,5,7
Long shot play? 10
Personal Play: 2,11,5,7,10 Trifecta Box
Race 12
Choice Horse: 7
Additional Selections In Order: 4,12
Long shot play? 1
Personal Play: 7,4,12,1 Exacta Box
Race 13
Choice Horse: 12
Additional Selections In Order: 14,9
Long shot play? 1
Personal Play: N/A
Courtesy of Steve Byk
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)
Live prices appear to abound to start day with Away Game (12-1), Spartiatis (10-1) and Wabbajack (8-1) jumping out, but top three faves have real merit. Bernardo (3-1) 7/2-1-2 at BEL, gets Jose Ortiz back and return to race two back plenty good enough. Jimmy Connors (4-1) adds blinks to already certain leadership and can wire. $1,000,000 Tapit son Forever Thing (7-2) is first time as a 4yo and has likely progressed considerably since last summer..
Most Likely: #7 Forever Thing 7-2
Best Value: #1 Away Game 12-1
Next Best: #3 Spartiatis 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Jimmy Connors 4-1
2nd: 4th Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Legend's last 2 efforts have been outstanding and though he faces a quality cast, looks like a breakout star in the making getting classic conservative Bond development handling. Life in Shambles bested Tonalist in tandem drill a week ago..
Most Likely: #7 LEGEND 3-1
Next Best: #1 Life in Shambles 4-1
Best Value: #8 Pass the Coffee 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Misconnect 4-1
3rd: 126th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)
A dress rehearsal for the Belmont 6 hours later and interesting to note that 7 of the riders of the 8 here have calls in the feature. The Drosselmeyer prep players look like the right ones and Eriugena provides value entering on a roll with a pedigree that screams the trip..
Most Likely: #3 Micromanage 7-2
Next Best: #2 Ground Transport 3-1
Best Value: #1 Eriugena 10-1
Exotics Use: #5 Ever Rider 5-1
4th: 31st Jaipur (G3), 4+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)
Fun cast with the amazing Ben's Cat on hand to make his turf debut in New York and 6 of the 11 looking possible on top. With Marriedtothemusic choosing to run Friday in the True North, pace duties fall to Marchman and Ben's Cat and the pair may take some catching. Positive Side adds Lasix after bleeding in the CD stake and gets heads up lawn pilot Nakatani..
Most Likely: #9 Positive Side 8-1
Next Best: #8 Ben's Cat 5-2
Best Value: #4 Upgrade 10-1
Exotics Use: #10 Marchman 3-1
Super Add: #5 Anyriderill Do 20-1
5th: 30th Woody Stephen -- formerly Riva Ridge (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)
Havana never had a chance to distinguish himself on the Triple Crown stomp this winter and spring, but this spot appears prime for Champagne winner to kickstart his sophomore season. Top Fortitiude has been a favorite of mine from day one and I love that Kory Owens was compelled to show up for this. Social Inclusion may overwhelm this set cutting back from Preakness, but it feels equally likely that he gets nothing. Tough call..
Most Likely: #3 Havana 6-1
Best Value: #12 Top Fortitude 20-1
Next Best: #11 Social Inclusion 7-5
Exotics Use: #10 Kobe's Back 15-1
$100 P5 Play:
All A Entries
1 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
A's with Two B's
7 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $12.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
12 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 11,12 - $16.00
A's with One C
17 $0.50 pick P5: 2,4 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 3,5,8 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $6.00
19 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 4,8 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 6,10 - $4.00
Total: $101.00
<$65 P4 Play:
All A Entries
1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
A's with Two B's
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $12.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 9 with 11,12 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 11,12 - $16.00
A's with One C
8 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5,8 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,8 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 6,11 with 3 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 7,10 - $4.00
Total: $65.00
6th: 84th Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
You can get creative and try to create some alternate scenarios, but on her best, My Miss Sophia remains second of her sex to Untapable. As Andy Serling points out, she may be best on the lead in two turn routes, but she broke her maiden on a one turn layout and doesn't have to be part of the hot pace. After her, any among House Rules, Fiftyshadesofgold, Sweet Reason, Unbridled Forever and returning Artemis Agrotera are plausible..
Most Likely: #8 My Miss Sophia 6-5
Best Value: #7 Unbridled Forever 10-1
Next Best: #9 Artemis Agrotera 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Sweet Reason 10-1
7th: 46th Ogden Phipps -- formerly Hempstead H. (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)
The billing for this started nearly three months ago and needs no further embellishment with a set of 4yo fillies that are collectively 12/12 going the 8.5f trip. Princess of Sylmar looks to get her set up here but I don't think she can get to Beholder. The Breeders' Cup Distaff in June..
Most Likely: #5 Beholder 7-5
Next Best: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5
Exotics Use: #1 Close Hatches 5-2
8th: 21st Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Top pair line up from the 9 & 10 holes with Discreet Marq needing to find early forward position and Better Lucky not wanting to get shuffled too far back..
Most Likely: #10 Better Lucky 3-1
Next Best: #9 Discreet Marq 5-2
Best Value: #4 Somali Lemonade 8-1
Exotics Use: #6 Stephanie's Kitten 4-1
9th: 121st Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Spectacular edition of this historic event and cannot blame anyone for taking their price shots. Of the prime contenders, Palace Malice (8-5), Normandy Invasion (5-1) and Shakin It Up (6-1) are the most logical. Perfectly drawn Shakin It Up is the key if that price is holding. Looking to the numbers, consistent Moreno (10-1) and turnback Romansh (15-1) have real chances. Vyjack will be every bit of his ML 30-1 tab and could charge the exotics 2nd/layoff..
Most Likely: #13 Shakin It Up 6-1
Next Best: #1 Palace Malice 8-5
Best Value: #5 Moreno 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Normandy Invasion 5-1
Super Add: #12 Romansh 15-1
10th: 113th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Entire group may be separated by less than 3 lengths on paper, which makes you want to take a chance and find a price. Rookie Sensation (12-1) has been much improved as a 4yo, though his record obscures it. Was able to close ground on hard-baked Santa Anita lawn and that bodes well for his prospects on a real turf course. Shipped to NY by Shirreffs immediately after near miss in Last Tycoon and :59.4 drill 5/19 tells you what you need to know. Surprise package in slightly soft running of this century-plus standard..
Best Value: #3 ROOKIE SENSATION 12-1
Next Best: #8 Real Solution 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Imagining 7-2
Super Add: #4 Grandeur 5-1
10th: 146th Belmont S. (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)
The Belmont Stakes has unique constructs on an annual basis that are further amplified under Triple Crown attempt conditions. The urge to anoint a Triple Crown winner is based on performances that seem germane, the Derby and Preakness, but in reality, are not. The 11th and 12th furlongs of the Belmont -- a quarter of a mile further than the Derby -- makes handicapping this 'test of the Champion' completely different. To distill the equation in another way, how would you approach the merits of these 11 horses if all were exiting 6f races but were now going 1 mile? Or pretend every horse in the Derby had never been beyond a mile and were now going a mile and a quarter. Two extra furlongs is 4+ football fields AFTER the group has already run the Derby distance. With that planted in your mind, recall all the implausible horses over the years that have invaded the pay slots of this event. They do so because the speed figures and general maxims of our handicapping on a daily basis do not apply as readily for these uncharted waters. With that established, feel free to include the likes of Commissioner (20-1), Medal Count (20-1), Matuszak (30-1) and even Matterhorn (30-1) with the major players that you feel you know.
We have all come to know the Triple Crown candidate best of course and there's nothing in his approach to the race that suggests he cannot -- or will not -- succeed today. Victor Espinoza will have every opportunity to choose his position early with none of the horses around him interested in being forwardly placed from the bell. Depending on what Samraat, General a Rod and Tonalist do, California Chrome and Espinoza can stalk or dictate. He can win on the front end if the pace is moderate and he can get first run on whomever is left in front after the first 6f to a mile. Either way, he will have to brace for challenges later from credentialed Wicked Strong and Ride On Curlin and/or Commissioner and the other one-paced grinders. If up to the task, we will be treated to a performance and Triple Crown winner that will stand up to the requisite scrutiny of the achievement's heavy mantle. Despite all the obvious faults of the stance from a wagering perspective, I'm voting for..
Most Likely: #2 California Chrome 3-5
Next Best: #9 Wicked Strong 6-1
Best Value: #8 Commissioner 20-1
Exotics Use: #5 Ride On Curlin 12-1
Super Add: #4 Commanding Curve 15-1
<$65 P4 Play:
All A Entries
1 $1.00 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $8.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 3,8 with 2 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 2 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 9 - $4.00
A's with Two B's
6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 9 with 3,8 with 2 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 2 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 9 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 1,4 with 2 - $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 3,8 with 9 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 9 - $4.00
A's with One C
12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 5,12 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 4,5,8,11 - $16.00
Total: $64.00
12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)
Most Likely: #11 Shining Copper 8-1
Best Value: #8 Developer 20-1
Next Best: #7 Ghurair 9-5
Exotics Use: #4 North Star Boy 10-1
Super Add: #2 Artic North 10-1
13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f
Most Likely: #11 Celebrator 10-1
Next Best: #8 Pazolini 3-1
Best Value: #12 Quick Money 15-1
Exotics Use: #10 Protocol 6-1
Super Add: #15 Associate 15-1
<$65 P4 Play:
All A Entries
1 $1.00 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $4.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
A's with Two B's
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 8 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 7,8 with 10,12,15 - $6.00
A's with One C
12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,5,6,7 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 11 with 8,1 - $18.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 1,4 with 8,11 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 2,5 - $2.00
Total: $65.00
Good luck!
Steve
GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION
Belmont Park
R1 - Alw 96k N1X
#9 Jimmy Connors (4-1)
#8 Wabbajack (8-1)
#7 Forever Thing (7-2)
#4 Lieutenant Seany O (6-1)
R2 - Easy Goer 150k
#7 Legend (3-1)
#6 No Surrender (8-1)
#5 Misconnect (4-1)
#4 Kid Cruz (5-2)
R3 - G2 Brooklyn
#1 Eriugena (Ire) (10-1)
#2 Ground Transport (3-1)
#4 Cat Burglar (5-2)
#3 Micromanage (7-2)
R4 - G3 Jaipur (Turf 6F)
#4 Upgrade (10-1)
#6 Undrafted (5-1)
#8 Ben's Cat (5-2)
#10 Marchman (3-1)
R5 - G2 Woody Stephens
#10 Kobe's Back (15-1) - Gets back to the winner's circle with a clean break.
#11 Social Inclusion (7-5) - Have to respect his raw talent.
#3 Havana (6-1) - Should be much tighter 2nd off the bench.
#9 Spot (30-1) - Picks up some pieces late.
PK5 - 7 8 9 / 1 2 4 6 7 / 1 / 4 6 8 10 / 10 11 = $60 for $.50
PK4 - 1 2 4 6 7 / 1 2 4 / 4 6 8 10 / 10 11 = $60 for $.50
R6 - G1 Acorn
#7 Unbridled Forever (10-1) - Fits on the cut back and addition of Rosario doesn't hurt.
#8 My Miss Sophia (6-5) - Has done little wrong and is a deserving favorite.
#2 House Rules (12-1) - Faced some very nice fillies in So Fla and deserves a serious look.
#9 Artemis Agrotera (5-1) - G1 winner at this distance and track is working well for return.
R7 - G1 Odden Phipps
#5 Beholder (7-5) - Seems like this distance will help her the most.
#1 Close Hatches (5-2) - Hard to argue with her record and must be respected.
#6 Princess of Sylmar (9-5) - She's ran big off a break before.
#4 Classic Point (20-1) - Does the Giant Killer have another one up his sleeve.
R8 - G1 Just A Game (Turf 8F)
#1 Ready Signal (30-1) - She's in sharp form and don't fall asleep on her chances.
#5 Coffee Clique (10-1) - Definitely moving in the right direction.
#6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) - Have to believe she'll be much better 2nd off the break.
#9 Discreet Marq (5-2) - Hard knocker loves this turf course.
R9 - G1 Metropolitan Handicap
#1 Palace Malice (8-5) - Probably the best horse in training in the U.S. at this time, but must earn it today from a difficult post and deep field.
#12 Romansh (15-1) - Like the turn back in distance and has been freshened up for this.
#10 Clearly Now (10-1) - As solid as they come and no reason to think he'll throw a clunker.
#9 Normandy Invasion (5-1) - He'll try the top choice again and he's dominated at this distance in both tries.
R10 - G1 Manhattan (Turf 10F)
#3 Rookie Sensation (12-1) BEST BET - Draws well and Shirreffs shows confidence showing up here. Sitting on a big one.
#6 Seek Again (3-1) - A slight improvement after battling Horse of the Year and he gets his picture taken.
#9 Kaigun (15-1) - Extra distance fits and the price will be juicy.
#8 Real Solution (5-1) - Looks to sit a nice stalking trip.
R11 - G1 Belmont Stakes
#1 Medal Count (20-1) - Looks great and works great, but the dirt is still a major question.
#2 California Chrome (3-5) - On the brink of history. With a clean break he'll be in his familiar stalking position before Victor pushes the button turning for home.
#3 Matterhorn (30-1) - Same connections that brought us Danza and he's improved with every race.
#4 Commanding Curve (15-1) - Getting much respect after finishing 2nd in the Derby. He should be running late attempting to catch a minor slice.
#5 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - Huge run in the Preakness and is doing well coming in. Minor award seems like the ceiling at this point.
#6 Matuszak (30-1) - Only a maiden win to his credit, but these top connections sure know how to win big races.
#7 Samraat (20-1) - If he finds himself loose on the lead, he could forget to stop. Dangerous on the front end if left alone.
#8 Commissioner (20-1) - He was born for this, but hasn't show the ability to complete at this level yet.
#9 Wicked Strong (6-1) - Would benefit from any kind of pace duel, but regardless expect him to make a serious rally off the pace.
#10 General a Rod (20-1) - Tricky read because it's hard to tell what Rosie will do. Send or Stalk?
#11 Tonalist (8-1) - Has the ability to end up being the most talented runner of the bunch. High ceiling.
Selections:
#11 Tonalist (8-1)
#7 Samraat (20-1)
#9 Wicked Strong (6-1)
#2 California Chrome (3-5)
#8 Commissioner (20-1)
PK6 - 2 7 8 9 / 5 / 1 5 6 9 / 1 / 3 6 / 7 11 = $128
PK4 - 1 4 5 6 8 9 10 / 1 12 / 3 6 / 2 7 9 11 = $56 for $.50
R12 - OC 62k/N2X (Turf 9F)
#12 Mr. Jenney (4-1) - Visually impressive win in last and just needs a trip from outside draw.
#7 Ghuair (9-5) - Takes a class drop that should wake him up.
#2 Artic North (10-1) - Both wins at this distance and should get a nice inside trip.
#11 Shining Copper (8-1) - Lots of changes that can produce a better effort.
R13 - OC 62k/N2X
#5 In Trouble (5-2) - Has the back class to dominate this field.
#10 Protocol (6-1) - Working well for sharp barn.
#11 Celebrator (10-1) - Expect the price to come down for Pletcher runner.
#13 Ragtime (12-1) - Must duplicate last effort to contend.
PK4 - All (10) / 2 3 7 8 9 11 / 7 12 / 5 = $50 for $.50
Good Racing Luck
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)
Live prices appear to abound to start day with Away Game (12-1), Spartiatis (10-1) and Wabbajack (8-1) jumping out, but top three faves have real merit. Bernardo (3-1) 7/2-1-2 at BEL, gets Jose Ortiz back and return to race two back plenty good enough. Jimmy Connors (4-1) adds blinks to already certain leadership and can wire. $1,000,000 Tapit son Forever Thing (7-2) is first time as a 4yo and has likely progressed considerably since last summer..
Most Likely: #7 Forever Thing 7-2
Best Value: #1 Away Game 12-1
Next Best: #3 Spartiatis 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Jimmy Connors 4-1
2nd: 4th Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Legend's last 2 efforts have been outstanding and though he faces a quality cast, looks like a breakout star in the making getting classic conservative Bond development handling. Life in Shambles bested Tonalist in tandem drill a week ago..
Most Likely: #7 LEGEND 3-1
Next Best: #1 Life in Shambles 4-1
Best Value: #8 Pass the Coffee 12-1
Exotics Use: #5 Misconnect 4-1
3rd: 126th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)
A dress rehearsal for the Belmont 6 hours later and interesting to note that 7 of the riders of the 8 here have calls in the feature. The Drosselmeyer prep players look like the right ones and Eriugena provides value entering on a roll with a pedigree that screams the trip..
Most Likely: #3 Micromanage 7-2
Next Best: #2 Ground Transport 3-1
Best Value: #1 Eriugena 10-1
Exotics Use: #5 Ever Rider 5-1
4th: 31st Jaipur (G3), 4+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)
Fun cast with the amazing Ben's Cat on hand to make his turf debut in New York and 6 of the 11 looking possible on top. With Marriedtothemusic choosing to run Friday in the True North, pace duties fall to Marchman and Ben's Cat and the pair may take some catching. Positive Side adds Lasix after bleeding in the CD stake and gets heads up lawn pilot Nakatani..
Most Likely: #9 Positive Side 8-1
Next Best: #8 Ben's Cat 5-2
Best Value: #4 Upgrade 10-1
Exotics Use: #10 Marchman 3-1
Super Add: #5 Anyriderill Do 20-1
5th: 30th Woody Stephen -- formerly Riva Ridge (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)
Havana never had a chance to distinguish himself on the Triple Crown stomp this winter and spring, but this spot appears prime for Champagne winner to kickstart his sophomore season. Top Fortitiude has been a favorite of mine from day one and I love that Kory Owens was compelled to show up for this. Social Inclusion may overwhelm this set cutting back from Preakness, but it feels equally likely that he gets nothing. Tough call..
Most Likely: #3 Havana 6-1
Best Value: #12 Top Fortitude 20-1
Next Best: #11 Social Inclusion 7-5
Exotics Use: #10 Kobe's Back 15-1
$100 P5 Play:
All A Entries
1 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
6 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
A's with Two B's
7 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $12.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 3,8,9 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 1,5 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
12 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 1 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 1,5 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 11,12 - $16.00
A's with One C
17 $0.50 pick P5: 2,4 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
18 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 3,5,8 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $6.00
19 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 4,8 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
20 $0.50 pick P5: 1,7 with 7 with 2,3 with 9 with 6,10 - $4.00
Total: $101.00
<$65 P4 Play:
All A Entries
1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $2.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $8.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 11,12 - $4.00
A's with Two B's
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 4,5,8,10 with 3 - $12.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 1,4,5 with 9 with 11,12 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 4,5,8,10 with 11,12 - $16.00
A's with One C
8 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5,8 with 2,3 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 6,7,8 with 9 with 3 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 6,11 with 3 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,7 with 2,3 with 9 with 7,10 - $4.00
Total: $65.00
6th: 84th Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD)
You can get creative and try to create some alternate scenarios, but on her best, My Miss Sophia remains second of her sex to Untapable. As Andy Serling points out, she may be best on the lead in two turn routes, but she broke her maiden on a one turn layout and doesn't have to be part of the hot pace. After her, any among House Rules, Fiftyshadesofgold, Sweet Reason, Unbridled Forever and returning Artemis Agrotera are plausible..
Most Likely: #8 My Miss Sophia 6-5
Best Value: #7 Unbridled Forever 10-1
Next Best: #9 Artemis Agrotera 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Sweet Reason 10-1
7th: 46th Ogden Phipps -- formerly Hempstead H. (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)
The billing for this started nearly three months ago and needs no further embellishment with a set of 4yo fillies that are collectively 12/12 going the 8.5f trip. Princess of Sylmar looks to get her set up here but I don't think she can get to Beholder. The Breeders' Cup Distaff in June..
Most Likely: #5 Beholder 7-5
Next Best: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5
Exotics Use: #1 Close Hatches 5-2
8th: 21st Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Top pair line up from the 9 & 10 holes with Discreet Marq needing to find early forward position and Better Lucky not wanting to get shuffled too far back..
Most Likely: #10 Better Lucky 3-1
Next Best: #9 Discreet Marq 5-2
Best Value: #4 Somali Lemonade 8-1
Exotics Use: #6 Stephanie's Kitten 4-1
9th: 121st Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Spectacular edition of this historic event and cannot blame anyone for taking their price shots. Of the prime contenders, Palace Malice (8-5), Normandy Invasion (5-1) and Shakin It Up (6-1) are the most logical. Perfectly drawn Shakin It Up is the key if that price is holding. Looking to the numbers, consistent Moreno (10-1) and turnback Romansh (15-1) have real chances. Vyjack will be every bit of his ML 30-1 tab and could charge the exotics 2nd/layoff..
Most Likely: #13 Shakin It Up 6-1
Next Best: #1 Palace Malice 8-5
Best Value: #5 Moreno 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Normandy Invasion 5-1
Super Add: #12 Romansh 15-1
10th: 113th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Entire group may be separated by less than 3 lengths on paper, which makes you want to take a chance and find a price. Rookie Sensation (12-1) has been much improved as a 4yo, though his record obscures it. Was able to close ground on hard-baked Santa Anita lawn and that bodes well for his prospects on a real turf course. Shipped to NY by Shirreffs immediately after near miss in Last Tycoon and :59.4 drill 5/19 tells you what you need to know. Surprise package in slightly soft running of this century-plus standard..
Best Value: #3 ROOKIE SENSATION 12-1
Next Best: #8 Real Solution 5-1
Exotics Use: #1 Imagining 7-2
Super Add: #4 Grandeur 5-1
10th: 146th Belmont S. (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)
The Belmont Stakes has unique constructs on an annual basis that are further amplified under Triple Crown attempt conditions. The urge to anoint a Triple Crown winner is based on performances that seem germane, the Derby and Preakness, but in reality, are not. The 11th and 12th furlongs of the Belmont -- a quarter of a mile further than the Derby -- makes handicapping this 'test of the Champion' completely different. To distill the equation in another way, how would you approach the merits of these 11 horses if all were exiting 6f races but were now going 1 mile? Or pretend every horse in the Derby had never been beyond a mile and were now going a mile and a quarter. Two extra furlongs is 4+ football fields AFTER the group has already run the Derby distance. With that planted in your mind, recall all the implausible horses over the years that have invaded the pay slots of this event. They do so because the speed figures and general maxims of our handicapping on a daily basis do not apply as readily for these uncharted waters. With that established, feel free to include the likes of Commissioner (20-1), Medal Count (20-1), Matuszak (30-1) and even Matterhorn (30-1) with the major players that you feel you know.
We have all come to know the Triple Crown candidate best of course and there's nothing in his approach to the race that suggests he cannot -- or will not -- succeed today. Victor Espinoza will have every opportunity to choose his position early with none of the horses around him interested in being forwardly placed from the bell. Depending on what Samraat, General a Rod and Tonalist do, California Chrome and Espinoza can stalk or dictate. He can win on the front end if the pace is moderate and he can get first run on whomever is left in front after the first 6f to a mile. Either way, he will have to brace for challenges later from credentialed Wicked Strong and Ride On Curlin and/or Commissioner and the other one-paced grinders. If up to the task, we will be treated to a performance and Triple Crown winner that will stand up to the requisite scrutiny of the achievement's heavy mantle. Despite all the obvious faults of the stance from a wagering perspective, I'm voting for..
Most Likely: #2 California Chrome 3-5
Next Best: #9 Wicked Strong 6-1
Best Value: #8 Commissioner 20-1
Exotics Use: #5 Ride On Curlin 12-1
Super Add: #4 Commanding Curve 15-1
<$65 P4 Play:
All A Entries
1 $1.00 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $8.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 3,8 with 2 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 2 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 9 - $4.00
A's with Two B's
6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 9 with 3,8 with 2 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 2 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,6 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 9 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 1,4 with 2 - $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 9 with 3,8 with 9 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 1,4 with 9 - $4.00
A's with One C
12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 5,12 with 3,8 with 2 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 9,10 with 1,13 with 3,8 with 4,5,8,11 - $16.00
Total: $64.00
12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)
Most Likely: #11 Shining Copper 8-1
Best Value: #8 Developer 20-1
Next Best: #7 Ghurair 9-5
Exotics Use: #4 North Star Boy 10-1
Super Add: #2 Artic North 10-1
13th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f
Most Likely: #11 Celebrator 10-1
Next Best: #8 Pazolini 3-1
Best Value: #12 Quick Money 15-1
Exotics Use: #10 Protocol 6-1
Super Add: #15 Associate 15-1
<$65 P4 Play:
All A Entries
1 $1.00 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $4.00
A's with One B
2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
A's with Two B's
6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 8 with 11 with 8,11 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,4 with 2 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 7,8 with 8,11 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 8 with 11 with 10,12,15 - $3.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 7,8 with 10,12,15 - $6.00
A's with One C
12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,5,6,7 with 2 with 11 with 8,11 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 11 with 8,1 - $18.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 1,4 with 8,11 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 11 with 2,5 - $2.00
Total: $65.00
Good luck!
Steve
GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION
Belmont Park
R1 - Alw 96k N1X
#9 Jimmy Connors (4-1)
#8 Wabbajack (8-1)
#7 Forever Thing (7-2)
#4 Lieutenant Seany O (6-1)
R2 - Easy Goer 150k
#7 Legend (3-1)
#6 No Surrender (8-1)
#5 Misconnect (4-1)
#4 Kid Cruz (5-2)
R3 - G2 Brooklyn
#1 Eriugena (Ire) (10-1)
#2 Ground Transport (3-1)
#4 Cat Burglar (5-2)
#3 Micromanage (7-2)
R4 - G3 Jaipur (Turf 6F)
#4 Upgrade (10-1)
#6 Undrafted (5-1)
#8 Ben's Cat (5-2)
#10 Marchman (3-1)
R5 - G2 Woody Stephens
#10 Kobe's Back (15-1) - Gets back to the winner's circle with a clean break.
#11 Social Inclusion (7-5) - Have to respect his raw talent.
#3 Havana (6-1) - Should be much tighter 2nd off the bench.
#9 Spot (30-1) - Picks up some pieces late.
PK5 - 7 8 9 / 1 2 4 6 7 / 1 / 4 6 8 10 / 10 11 = $60 for $.50
PK4 - 1 2 4 6 7 / 1 2 4 / 4 6 8 10 / 10 11 = $60 for $.50
R6 - G1 Acorn
#7 Unbridled Forever (10-1) - Fits on the cut back and addition of Rosario doesn't hurt.
#8 My Miss Sophia (6-5) - Has done little wrong and is a deserving favorite.
#2 House Rules (12-1) - Faced some very nice fillies in So Fla and deserves a serious look.
#9 Artemis Agrotera (5-1) - G1 winner at this distance and track is working well for return.
R7 - G1 Odden Phipps
#5 Beholder (7-5) - Seems like this distance will help her the most.
#1 Close Hatches (5-2) - Hard to argue with her record and must be respected.
#6 Princess of Sylmar (9-5) - She's ran big off a break before.
#4 Classic Point (20-1) - Does the Giant Killer have another one up his sleeve.
R8 - G1 Just A Game (Turf 8F)
#1 Ready Signal (30-1) - She's in sharp form and don't fall asleep on her chances.
#5 Coffee Clique (10-1) - Definitely moving in the right direction.
#6 Stephanie's Kitten (4-1) - Have to believe she'll be much better 2nd off the break.
#9 Discreet Marq (5-2) - Hard knocker loves this turf course.
R9 - G1 Metropolitan Handicap
#1 Palace Malice (8-5) - Probably the best horse in training in the U.S. at this time, but must earn it today from a difficult post and deep field.
#12 Romansh (15-1) - Like the turn back in distance and has been freshened up for this.
#10 Clearly Now (10-1) - As solid as they come and no reason to think he'll throw a clunker.
#9 Normandy Invasion (5-1) - He'll try the top choice again and he's dominated at this distance in both tries.
R10 - G1 Manhattan (Turf 10F)
#3 Rookie Sensation (12-1) BEST BET - Draws well and Shirreffs shows confidence showing up here. Sitting on a big one.
#6 Seek Again (3-1) - A slight improvement after battling Horse of the Year and he gets his picture taken.
#9 Kaigun (15-1) - Extra distance fits and the price will be juicy.
#8 Real Solution (5-1) - Looks to sit a nice stalking trip.
R11 - G1 Belmont Stakes
#1 Medal Count (20-1) - Looks great and works great, but the dirt is still a major question.
#2 California Chrome (3-5) - On the brink of history. With a clean break he'll be in his familiar stalking position before Victor pushes the button turning for home.
#3 Matterhorn (30-1) - Same connections that brought us Danza and he's improved with every race.
#4 Commanding Curve (15-1) - Getting much respect after finishing 2nd in the Derby. He should be running late attempting to catch a minor slice.
#5 Ride On Curlin (12-1) - Huge run in the Preakness and is doing well coming in. Minor award seems like the ceiling at this point.
#6 Matuszak (30-1) - Only a maiden win to his credit, but these top connections sure know how to win big races.
#7 Samraat (20-1) - If he finds himself loose on the lead, he could forget to stop. Dangerous on the front end if left alone.
#8 Commissioner (20-1) - He was born for this, but hasn't show the ability to complete at this level yet.
#9 Wicked Strong (6-1) - Would benefit from any kind of pace duel, but regardless expect him to make a serious rally off the pace.
#10 General a Rod (20-1) - Tricky read because it's hard to tell what Rosie will do. Send or Stalk?
#11 Tonalist (8-1) - Has the ability to end up being the most talented runner of the bunch. High ceiling.
Selections:
#11 Tonalist (8-1)
#7 Samraat (20-1)
#9 Wicked Strong (6-1)
#2 California Chrome (3-5)
#8 Commissioner (20-1)
PK6 - 2 7 8 9 / 5 / 1 5 6 9 / 1 / 3 6 / 7 11 = $128
PK4 - 1 4 5 6 8 9 10 / 1 12 / 3 6 / 2 7 9 11 = $56 for $.50
R12 - OC 62k/N2X (Turf 9F)
#12 Mr. Jenney (4-1) - Visually impressive win in last and just needs a trip from outside draw.
#7 Ghuair (9-5) - Takes a class drop that should wake him up.
#2 Artic North (10-1) - Both wins at this distance and should get a nice inside trip.
#11 Shining Copper (8-1) - Lots of changes that can produce a better effort.
R13 - OC 62k/N2X
#5 In Trouble (5-2) - Has the back class to dominate this field.
#10 Protocol (6-1) - Working well for sharp barn.
#11 Celebrator (10-1) - Expect the price to come down for Pletcher runner.
#13 Ragtime (12-1) - Must duplicate last effort to contend.
PK4 - All (10) / 2 3 7 8 9 11 / 7 12 / 5 = $50 for $.50
Good Racing Luck
Andrew Beyer
In Belmont Stakes, place your sentiments on California Chrome; put your money elsewhere
Over the past three decades, as the public has cheered for horses to win the Belmont Stakes and complete a sweep of the Triple Crown, some racing purists have been reluctant to lend their voices to the chorus.
Those of us who remember the last three colts to accomplish the feat — Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) — know they were giants in the greatest era of thoroughbred racing in America. It would have been almost sacrilegious to put the names of runners such as Charismatic, Real Quiet, War Emblem and Funny Cide on a short list along with the sport’s immortals.
But as California Chrome tries to become the first horse since Affirmed to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, the old worries about blemishing the list of Triple Crown winners hardly seem relevant now. After 11 horses since 1979 have lost bids for the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes, any horse who accomplishes the sweep will deserve praise and respect — and a place in history.
If this happens Saturday, it couldn’t happen at a better time. The sport has been beset with so many problems that it needs a positive story. What better story could there be than one with a rags-to-riches hero such as the ill-bred California Chrome?
The colt has generated excitement, superlatives and high expectations, and it is hard for many fans to assess his Triple Crown bid dispassionately. But handicappers should not be swayed by sentiment. They are supposed to look at horses and races with cold-eyed objectivity. And an objective analysis would conclude California Chrome is not the standout the public thinks he is.
Many people now talk about California Chrome as if he dominated his opposition in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. He didn’t. He won the Kentucky Derby by 13 / 4 lengths over Commanding Curve, whose major previous achievement was a five-length loss in the Louisiana Derby. Against a weak field in the Preakness (where most of the Derby runners didn’t show up), he finished 11 / 2 lengths ahead of Ride On Curlin, whose record in stakes competition had been 0 for 7.
In scoring these victories, California Chrome benefited from easy trips, stalking the lead, avoiding any traffic trouble. Like Affirmed, he possesses the quickness and maneuverability to make his own breaks. Nevertheless, handicappers know to be wary of horses who win with perfect trips; no horse can avoid adversity forever.
If California Chrome has proved himself superior to his main rivals in the Belmont by two lengths or so, this is a slender edge. Big Brown (2008) won the Derby and Preakness by about five lengths; Funny Cide (2003) and Smarty Jones (2004) each ran away with the Preakness by about 10 lengths. Yet they all failed at Belmont Park. Like them, California Chrome’s edge is almost certain to shrink — or disappear — at the longer distance of the Belmont. California Chrome was tiring at the end of the 11 / 4-mile Derby and was hard-pressed to maintain his margin over Ride on Curlin in the Preakness. It is hard to imagine he will be as good at 11 / 2 miles.
The four principal challengers Saturday all appear better suited to the distance than the favorite.
●Commanding Curve rallied strongly to finish second at Churchill Downs. His significant improvement over his previous starts suggested that running 1¼ miles and longer is his forte.
●Ride on Curlin rallied from far behind in both the Derby and the Preakness, and he may have the genes to help him Saturday. He is a son of Curlin, who lost a photo finish in the 2007 Belmont and sired last year’s winner, Palace Malice.
●Wicked Strong won a fast Wood Memorial and then rallied to finish fourth in the Derby after a difficult trip. His lineage is filled with distinguished distance runners.
●Tonalist missed the first two legs of the Triple Crown because of an illness but returned to action with an authoritative four-length victory in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont.
History suggests California Chrome will face another disadvantage besides the Belmont distance. Not only is winning the Triple Crown difficult, but merely running in all three races is tough for modern-day horses. In the last 12 years, only a single horse has won the Belmont after competing in both the Derby and the Preakness. During that period, six horses ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and won the Belmont. The extra rest is clearly an important edge.
Wicked Strong has that extra rest, plus solid credentials. He was considered California Chrome’s main rival in the Derby, but he couldn’t overcome the outside post position in the field of 19. Hung wide at the first turn, he never got into striking position, and he found himself in heavy traffic throughout the stretch run. Even so, he lost by less than six lengths. The Belmont figures to be a very different race.
My Belmont Stakes picks: 1. Wicked Strong. 2. Tonalist. 3. Commanding Curve.
I would be happy to be wrong, but California Chrome has too many obstacles to overcome. If he does surmount them, the sport will rightly hail a worthy champion.
In Belmont Stakes, place your sentiments on California Chrome; put your money elsewhere
Over the past three decades, as the public has cheered for horses to win the Belmont Stakes and complete a sweep of the Triple Crown, some racing purists have been reluctant to lend their voices to the chorus.
Those of us who remember the last three colts to accomplish the feat — Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) — know they were giants in the greatest era of thoroughbred racing in America. It would have been almost sacrilegious to put the names of runners such as Charismatic, Real Quiet, War Emblem and Funny Cide on a short list along with the sport’s immortals.
But as California Chrome tries to become the first horse since Affirmed to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, the old worries about blemishing the list of Triple Crown winners hardly seem relevant now. After 11 horses since 1979 have lost bids for the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes, any horse who accomplishes the sweep will deserve praise and respect — and a place in history.
If this happens Saturday, it couldn’t happen at a better time. The sport has been beset with so many problems that it needs a positive story. What better story could there be than one with a rags-to-riches hero such as the ill-bred California Chrome?
The colt has generated excitement, superlatives and high expectations, and it is hard for many fans to assess his Triple Crown bid dispassionately. But handicappers should not be swayed by sentiment. They are supposed to look at horses and races with cold-eyed objectivity. And an objective analysis would conclude California Chrome is not the standout the public thinks he is.
Many people now talk about California Chrome as if he dominated his opposition in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. He didn’t. He won the Kentucky Derby by 13 / 4 lengths over Commanding Curve, whose major previous achievement was a five-length loss in the Louisiana Derby. Against a weak field in the Preakness (where most of the Derby runners didn’t show up), he finished 11 / 2 lengths ahead of Ride On Curlin, whose record in stakes competition had been 0 for 7.
In scoring these victories, California Chrome benefited from easy trips, stalking the lead, avoiding any traffic trouble. Like Affirmed, he possesses the quickness and maneuverability to make his own breaks. Nevertheless, handicappers know to be wary of horses who win with perfect trips; no horse can avoid adversity forever.
If California Chrome has proved himself superior to his main rivals in the Belmont by two lengths or so, this is a slender edge. Big Brown (2008) won the Derby and Preakness by about five lengths; Funny Cide (2003) and Smarty Jones (2004) each ran away with the Preakness by about 10 lengths. Yet they all failed at Belmont Park. Like them, California Chrome’s edge is almost certain to shrink — or disappear — at the longer distance of the Belmont. California Chrome was tiring at the end of the 11 / 4-mile Derby and was hard-pressed to maintain his margin over Ride on Curlin in the Preakness. It is hard to imagine he will be as good at 11 / 2 miles.
The four principal challengers Saturday all appear better suited to the distance than the favorite.
●Commanding Curve rallied strongly to finish second at Churchill Downs. His significant improvement over his previous starts suggested that running 1¼ miles and longer is his forte.
●Ride on Curlin rallied from far behind in both the Derby and the Preakness, and he may have the genes to help him Saturday. He is a son of Curlin, who lost a photo finish in the 2007 Belmont and sired last year’s winner, Palace Malice.
●Wicked Strong won a fast Wood Memorial and then rallied to finish fourth in the Derby after a difficult trip. His lineage is filled with distinguished distance runners.
●Tonalist missed the first two legs of the Triple Crown because of an illness but returned to action with an authoritative four-length victory in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont.
History suggests California Chrome will face another disadvantage besides the Belmont distance. Not only is winning the Triple Crown difficult, but merely running in all three races is tough for modern-day horses. In the last 12 years, only a single horse has won the Belmont after competing in both the Derby and the Preakness. During that period, six horses ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and won the Belmont. The extra rest is clearly an important edge.
Wicked Strong has that extra rest, plus solid credentials. He was considered California Chrome’s main rival in the Derby, but he couldn’t overcome the outside post position in the field of 19. Hung wide at the first turn, he never got into striking position, and he found himself in heavy traffic throughout the stretch run. Even so, he lost by less than six lengths. The Belmont figures to be a very different race.
My Belmont Stakes picks: 1. Wicked Strong. 2. Tonalist. 3. Commanding Curve.
I would be happy to be wrong, but California Chrome has too many obstacles to overcome. If he does surmount them, the sport will rightly hail a worthy champion.
Predicteform
Medal Count (20-1)
Here's what we had to say about Medal Count prior to his Kentucky Derby effort.
Medal Count's 4f Pace Figures look erratic. In his two races on dirt, the 4f Pace Figures are 75.5 and 77.6 respectively, his two highest 4f furlong marks. His two most recent final Pace Figures are “paired up tops,” meaning he ran back to back 77's, which in some cases would be construed as a positive pattern. However, given both efforts were on synthetic (artificial grass of horse racing), there is not much stock in either of those efforts. The play: REGRESSOR - Overly aggressive owners got him in the Derby, but it is unlikely Medal Count can fire a third time in a row, especially on dirt.
By all accounts, his Kentucky Derby effort was okay as he ran a 76/69.2 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. Looking at his last three starts and as seen by the “basic view” graph below, the sets of Final and 4F Pace Figures are each within a point of each other indicating a runner who has found his level.
The Play: TOO SLOW - Runner looks like a turf/synthetic surface specialist with slower Final Pace Figures than the top group.
California Chrome (3-5)
Here's what we had to say about California Chrome prior to the Preakness:
California Chrome was a deserving Derby favorite and ran lights out, opening up on the field before coasting to the wire running a 79.1/73.8 (final/4f) Pace Figure. His Final Pace Figures continue to climb ever so slightly while his 4f Pace Figures have steadied out in the low 70's. This indicates a runner who continues to manage his energy very efficiently while showing signs of brilliance with the ability of running an 80+ final Pace Figure.
By Final Pace Figure alone California Chrome looks at least two points faster than any of his competitors. Plus his 4f Pace Figure should keep him close to the lead without joining the fray of the front-runners.
Chrome did run a Final Pace Figure over 80 as suspected, winding up with an 81.5/76.6 (final/4f). The Final Pace Figure of 81.5 is what legends are made of, but before we hand him the crown, let's dive deeper into his figures.
Over the course of his last six races (all wins), his final Page Figure has stepped up in each race, ultimately going from 73.9 to 81.5, a very reasonable eight point increase over six races. However, the measured increase in each of six races without the sign of regression brings up the question – can he increase his final Pace Figure again? While it is very unlikely that he posts even better numbers in the Belmont Stakes, based on his competitors, an 82+ Pace Figure may not be necessary…
Turning to his internal 4F Pace Figure, his mark of 76.6 in the Preakness was a three point increase from the Derby. And, with the exception of the 80.7 4F Pace Figure in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, the 4F Pace Figures have increased every race, a total of +9.9 points in his last six races. Essentially, without that lone 80.7 4F, Chrome's last effort would have been a Double Top (DTOP – a runner's best final and 4f Pace Figure by a notable margin). DTOP patterns are strong indicators of future regression. The odds on the eventual Belmont Stakes winner having increased both his final and internal (4F) Pace Figure in 11 of 12 instances over his last six starts is not strong.
Chrome continues to look the part of a Triple Crown contender. He is sitting on immortality as 12 other runners have since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978. Close your eyes and imagine if you can hear the name California Chrome in the same breath as Secretariat and Seattle Slew. A deserving Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown contender, Chrome carries the weight of a generation. The TV cameras, the horse and jockey competitors and an expectation that this is the year adds weight that can't be measured.
The play: CONTENDER - His Pace Figures are remarkable, but this is a runner who makes his third start in five weeks. Are you willing to back a runner who will likely have a slower Final Pace Figure in his effort to win the third leg of the Triple Crown? It's a tall task for any horse, especially one that is not likely to take another step forward. He is just a little more likely than not to win the race, yet likely will not have value at less than even money.
Matterhorn (30-1)
A $625k two year old auction purchase has banked only $62k lifetime, the least amount of all starters in the Belmont and less than one percent of California Chrome's earnings. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Belmont last year with Palace Malice (though he did have five runners in the race).
His last effort out in the Grade II Peter Pan at Belmont was a 74.3/66.2 (Final/4F), best of his career. His graph below shows a set of parallel lines indicating a runner who has done a good job of distributing his energy efficiently throughout his short career.
The Play: TOO SLOW – Expect better things to come from this colt but not here in the Grade I Belmont Stakes.
Commanding Curve (15-1)
Here's what we had to say about Commanding Curve before the Derby.
Commanding Curve's Pace Figures are another from the set of “parallel lines.” His dirt spreads have remained consistent (9.7 – 7.2 – 7.0 - 9.0 in his most recent starts), though his Final Pace Figures are still not competitive.
Curve took a big forward step in the Derby, rewarding his backers with a juicy 38:1 2nd place finish. His Pace Figure effort of 78.4/63 (Final/4F) was a lifetime top by 4.4 points on the final Pace Figure and a 5.8 point increase compared to his Final Pace Figure in his prior outing (72.6) while continuing a consistent line on his 4F figures.
This runner looks to be managing his energy better while increasing his final Pace Figure significantly. Off the pace running style for 12 furlongs says his 4F Pace Figure will likely not crack 60. It is rare, that a dirt spread can move from 8.1 – 15.4 – and then up again, which likely means he will top out at a 74 or 75 final Pace Figure for the Belmont, a little light to be considered in the top flight.
The play: REGRESSOR - His “basic view” graph looks like a runner who is more likely to regress than move forward.
Ride On Curlin (12-1)
Ride on Curlin (ROC) raced willingly in the Kentucky Derby, putting up a 76.3/60.3 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. Add those figures to his Final Pace Figure and 4F Pace Figure line (as seen below) and you have a runner whose Final Pace Figure continues to improve while his 4F Pace Figure decreases. This delineation of an increased dirt spread is a positive.
“ROC” did not disappoint us with his Preakness effort putting up an 80.9/69.4 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. While the final figure was a 4.6 point top, his 4F figure was 69.4, an indication that ROC has some ability to be closer to the pace. Further, looking back at his best three 4F figures, you'd find 82.1, 80.2 and 79.4 all which took place early in his career. As seen by his “basic view” graph below, his forward moving 4F figure from the Derby to the Preakness (60.3 – 69.4) represents a horse who is running a faster tempo and has potential to get back to an earlier (especially without Calvin Borel as the jockey immediately breaking to the rail) internal (4F) and Final Pace Figure.
The play: CONTENDER - A forward moving colt, who we expect to be closer to the lead than in the Preakness, has a controlled stalking style and positive line that could prove beneficial in this 12 furlong battle.
Matusak (30-1)
One of four “new shooters” to the Triple Crown fray, Matusak has won one start from eight tries earning $78K. And while his trainer – jockey combo of Bill Mott and Mike Smith is impressive, this late running colt has a monumental task ahead of him.
Turning to his Pace Figures, his lifetime best final figure is 73.1/64.3 three starts back, while most recently his final figures have been 65.5 and 64.1. Looking at the “basic view” graph as seen below, his lifetime Final Pace Figure average is just 68.1, the only runner of the Belmont field with a lifetime average in the 60's.
The play: TOO SLOW – actually, he is WAY TOO SLOW and by the looks of it, the owner wants to cross off a bucket list goal of running in the Belmont Stakes. Not competitive at this level.
Samraat (20-1)
His father, Noble Causeway passed away last Friday after a bout with laminitis. And whether Samraat knows it or not, this motivation combined with his status as the only New York bred runner in the race makes Samraat the true “David” against Goliath in the 2014 Belmont Stakes.
Here's what we had to say about Samraat heading into the Kentucky Derby:
Samraat's most recent Final Pace Figure of 78.6 in the Wood was just 0.3 higher than the previous top of 78.3 on 2/23. These Final Pace Figures are as close to a paired up top as you can get (back to back equal Final Pace Figures). The rise from a 71.4 in Samraat's first start to the 78.6 in the Wood shows a gradual increase in Final Pace Figures (which is a positive). As well, Samraat's two most recent Final Pace Figures average 78.5, second in the field behind Wildcat Red.
It is reasonable to expect this continued uneven distribution of energy as Samraat's 4f increases and Final Pace Figure is forced to decline as more energy is used early. Not playable.
This analysis of Samraat was spot on in the Derby. And while a 76.7/73.7 in the Derby is considered respectable, the decline in both the Final/4F Pace Figure from the Wood to the Derby looks like a colt on the decline.
The play: REGRESSOR – Check out his set of Final and 4F Pace Figure lines in the “basic view” graph. A set of regressing parallel lines shows a runner who's internal and final Pace Figures are on the decline.
Commissioner (20-1)
One of two Todd Pletcher's starters (he had five last year), Commissioner, skipped the first two legs of the Triple Crown after a subpar performance in the Arkansas Derby. He retains the services of jockey Javier Castellano who has owned Belmont Park spring/summer meet, winning at a clip of 22% and in the money 54% of the time since the start of the 2012 season.
Turning to his Pace Figures in the graph below, there is a real inconsistency to the Final/4F figures in every race. Commissioner's erratic nature makes it hard to make a case at any level. His lifetime top of 77.3/68.4 three races back was against Chitu who faltered at 10 furlongs in the Derby. To imagine Commissioner can stretch out to 12 furlongs while running a lifetime best Final Pace Figure seems unmanageable.
The play: TOO SLOW – a slower horse going a longer distance is always a challenge.
Wicked Strong (6-1)
Here's what we had to say about Wicked Strong prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Wicked Strong's most recent Final Pace Figure was 80.3, the fastest Final Pace Figure of all Derby starters. Wicked Strong continued his big step forward over the last three races from 69.6 (final on 1/25/14) to 75.4 (2/22/14) to 80.3 in the Wood. This 10.7 point jump over the course of three races is significant and could likely indicate a horse nearing or on a top. You'll also notice an up and down set of 4f Pace Figures, which shows inconsistency during the early part of the race, not ideal when pitted against 19 rivals. The play: REGRESSOR - Expected to be a lukewarm second choice and favorite of other pros, but the value is not there to back him. He ran a Final Page figure of almost seven points better in his last race than ever before, which is likely unsustainable.
As expected, Wicked Strong did regress in the Derby to 76.7/68 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. He broke from the 19 post and essentially never had a shot while willingly making up lengths in the stretch though never challenging the top three finishers. One of four Derby runners who skipped the Preakness opting for the Belmont, “Strong” does have two starts at Belmont early in his career.
Notice the Pace Figures for his first two career starts at Belmont and the associated Form Cycle Patterns – NEG and DTOP. A Negative Spread (NEG) is a negative Form Cycle Pattern for first time starters while a DTOP (Double Top is defined as a runner who put up his best Final and 4f Pace Figure in the same race) is also considered negative.
The play: REGRESSOR – Should run a similar to slightly slower race to what we saw in the Kentucky Derby, which still probably would not hit the board in this field.
General A Rod (20-1)
Here's what we had to say about the General before the Preakness:
General A Rod ran a 75.6/65.3 (final/4f) Pace Figure in the Derby which was continued regression. Note that his two biggest final Pace Figures came in races of 8 furlongs (76.2/81.2) and at 8.5 furlongs (79.9/81.5) and were accompanied by high 4f Pace Figures; therefore it would not be surprising to see Javier keep him closer to the lead. The play: TOO SLOW – Both internal (4f) and Final Pace Figures are too slow to be competitive in this race.
The partners in General A Rod are a good example about what is right in racing. They made the call a week before the race, based off one workout that he will run in the Belmont. Given he has run in three Grade I races and a Grade II in his last four outing, only Chrome and Curlin have competed at the same level.
General A Rod's Preakness effort from a Pace Figure perspective wasn't all that bad. He moved forward 2.3 points in his final figure (75.6 – 77.9), while putting up his best 4F figure in recent races. He retains the riding services of Rose Napravnik, the top female rider looking to become the second women to win the Belmont.
The play: GASSED - A grueling campaign has left the General A Rod on the outside looking in every start; there is no reason to expect anything different.
Tonalist (8-1)
A late developing three year old, Tonalist heads to the Belmont Stakes off a visually impressive performance in the Grade II Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 10th (note the four weeks rest). He broke a half step slow, rushed to the lead, settled in the middle of the race and drew off down the stretch while the jockey spent more time looking back than forward. Trained by Christophe Clement, a grass specialist, Tonalist takes Clement back to the Belmont for his second lifetime appearance (ran 4th with Dynever in 2003). Jockey Joel Rosario takes a calculated risk and chooses to move on to ride Tonalist instead of Ride on Curlin.
Turning to his Pace Figures, Tonalist has a unique line as seen by his graph below. Not only does he have a Form Cycle Pattern in every start, but his Final and 4F Pace Figures have increased consistently as well. Coined a “NDAW” (never done anything wrong) horse by Predicteform.com founder Cary Fotias, his unique set of parallel lines show forward growth in every start while maintaining a dirt spread range (Final Pace Figure minus the 4F Pace Figure) of 4.8 – 6 - 8.7 - 6.2. This tight spread range decreasing down to a 4.8 in the Peter Pan shows a runner who is managing his energy efficiently.
Focusing a bit deeper on his last start, Tonalist ran a 77.5/72.7 which is a New Pace Top (the best 4F figure of a horse's career without a clear max final Pace Figure). He is the only runner in the Belmont Stakes coming off a Form Cycle Pattern and the New Pace Top (NPT) is the best indicator of future improved performance on dirt. While California Chrome had to work hard with a long Preakness stretch drive, Tonalist cruised under the wire in his last race, dialing down with clearly something left in the tank.
The play: CONTENDER – Off a NPT with a previous race over the Belmont surface, decent rest and a tactical running style, plus at least 5:1 odds, Tonalist makes for a very enticing play on top and could be California Chrome's top competition.
Social Inclusion (Scratched)
Here's what we had to say about Social Inclusion before the Preakness:
Social Inclusion ran a big final Pace Figure first time out just three months ago on 2/22/2014 (77.4/83.5). This combination – a faster 4f Pace Figure (by at least four points) than a final Pace Figure is common for a new horse. Though, what is uncommon was his next race, an immediate Reversal Pattern (REV – Faster Final Pace Figure than 4f Pace Figure for the first time).
His most recent race, the Grade I Wood Memorial, proved he can compete at the highest level for three year olds. He ran a 78.6/78.4 (final/4f) which indicates a runner managing his energy effectively; his 6f Pace Figure was 76 that support the notion.
His visible change in running style in the Preakness along with a 78/75 (Final/4F) Pace Figure looks like a runner who is doing a better job of managing his speed. We would not be surprised to see a Belmont effort where he settles again.
The play: FRINGE CONTENDER – his Final Pace Figures are tailing off, while his 4F figures are on the decline. Best effort could get him in the money
Kid Cruz (Scratched)
Here's what we had to say about Cruz prior to the Preakness Stakes.
In January in New York at Aqueduct Racetrack, where it was near freezing with snow on the ground, Kid Cruz made up almost ten lengths in the stretch while putting up a 76.0/65.9. This is an indication that he can run a Pace Figure in the high 70's.
His most recent two efforts were 66.4/45 (final/4f with a SOFT pattern), followed by a 67.9/55.8 most recent - in both starts Cruz was pulling away at the wire. He stretches out to 9.5 furlongs, the longest race of his career and by all indications (based on his huge dirt spreads), Kid Cruz will relish the extra distance.
While Cruz's Pace Figures did increase in the Preakness to a 74.5/60.6 (Final/4F), his off-the-pace running style did not fit the shortest of the three Triple Crown races. The amount of ground Cruz had to make up down the stretch was insurmountable. The +8.2 move in his Final Pace Figure and +4.8 in the 4F figure are within a reasonable range given his prior lifetime top of 76.0/65.9. Though we expect a better effort and a forward step off the Preakness, Kid Cruz is still considered a long shot to hit the board.
The play: TOO SLOW - His Final and 4 Furlong Pace Figures are too slow plus his off-the-pace running style decreases his already longshot chances to hit the board.
Medal Count (20-1)
Here's what we had to say about Medal Count prior to his Kentucky Derby effort.
Medal Count's 4f Pace Figures look erratic. In his two races on dirt, the 4f Pace Figures are 75.5 and 77.6 respectively, his two highest 4f furlong marks. His two most recent final Pace Figures are “paired up tops,” meaning he ran back to back 77's, which in some cases would be construed as a positive pattern. However, given both efforts were on synthetic (artificial grass of horse racing), there is not much stock in either of those efforts. The play: REGRESSOR - Overly aggressive owners got him in the Derby, but it is unlikely Medal Count can fire a third time in a row, especially on dirt.
By all accounts, his Kentucky Derby effort was okay as he ran a 76/69.2 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. Looking at his last three starts and as seen by the “basic view” graph below, the sets of Final and 4F Pace Figures are each within a point of each other indicating a runner who has found his level.
The Play: TOO SLOW - Runner looks like a turf/synthetic surface specialist with slower Final Pace Figures than the top group.
California Chrome (3-5)
Here's what we had to say about California Chrome prior to the Preakness:
California Chrome was a deserving Derby favorite and ran lights out, opening up on the field before coasting to the wire running a 79.1/73.8 (final/4f) Pace Figure. His Final Pace Figures continue to climb ever so slightly while his 4f Pace Figures have steadied out in the low 70's. This indicates a runner who continues to manage his energy very efficiently while showing signs of brilliance with the ability of running an 80+ final Pace Figure.
By Final Pace Figure alone California Chrome looks at least two points faster than any of his competitors. Plus his 4f Pace Figure should keep him close to the lead without joining the fray of the front-runners.
Chrome did run a Final Pace Figure over 80 as suspected, winding up with an 81.5/76.6 (final/4f). The Final Pace Figure of 81.5 is what legends are made of, but before we hand him the crown, let's dive deeper into his figures.
Over the course of his last six races (all wins), his final Page Figure has stepped up in each race, ultimately going from 73.9 to 81.5, a very reasonable eight point increase over six races. However, the measured increase in each of six races without the sign of regression brings up the question – can he increase his final Pace Figure again? While it is very unlikely that he posts even better numbers in the Belmont Stakes, based on his competitors, an 82+ Pace Figure may not be necessary…
Turning to his internal 4F Pace Figure, his mark of 76.6 in the Preakness was a three point increase from the Derby. And, with the exception of the 80.7 4F Pace Figure in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, the 4F Pace Figures have increased every race, a total of +9.9 points in his last six races. Essentially, without that lone 80.7 4F, Chrome's last effort would have been a Double Top (DTOP – a runner's best final and 4f Pace Figure by a notable margin). DTOP patterns are strong indicators of future regression. The odds on the eventual Belmont Stakes winner having increased both his final and internal (4F) Pace Figure in 11 of 12 instances over his last six starts is not strong.
Chrome continues to look the part of a Triple Crown contender. He is sitting on immortality as 12 other runners have since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978. Close your eyes and imagine if you can hear the name California Chrome in the same breath as Secretariat and Seattle Slew. A deserving Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown contender, Chrome carries the weight of a generation. The TV cameras, the horse and jockey competitors and an expectation that this is the year adds weight that can't be measured.
The play: CONTENDER - His Pace Figures are remarkable, but this is a runner who makes his third start in five weeks. Are you willing to back a runner who will likely have a slower Final Pace Figure in his effort to win the third leg of the Triple Crown? It's a tall task for any horse, especially one that is not likely to take another step forward. He is just a little more likely than not to win the race, yet likely will not have value at less than even money.
Matterhorn (30-1)
A $625k two year old auction purchase has banked only $62k lifetime, the least amount of all starters in the Belmont and less than one percent of California Chrome's earnings. Trainer Todd Pletcher won the Belmont last year with Palace Malice (though he did have five runners in the race).
His last effort out in the Grade II Peter Pan at Belmont was a 74.3/66.2 (Final/4F), best of his career. His graph below shows a set of parallel lines indicating a runner who has done a good job of distributing his energy efficiently throughout his short career.
The Play: TOO SLOW – Expect better things to come from this colt but not here in the Grade I Belmont Stakes.
Commanding Curve (15-1)
Here's what we had to say about Commanding Curve before the Derby.
Commanding Curve's Pace Figures are another from the set of “parallel lines.” His dirt spreads have remained consistent (9.7 – 7.2 – 7.0 - 9.0 in his most recent starts), though his Final Pace Figures are still not competitive.
Curve took a big forward step in the Derby, rewarding his backers with a juicy 38:1 2nd place finish. His Pace Figure effort of 78.4/63 (Final/4F) was a lifetime top by 4.4 points on the final Pace Figure and a 5.8 point increase compared to his Final Pace Figure in his prior outing (72.6) while continuing a consistent line on his 4F figures.
This runner looks to be managing his energy better while increasing his final Pace Figure significantly. Off the pace running style for 12 furlongs says his 4F Pace Figure will likely not crack 60. It is rare, that a dirt spread can move from 8.1 – 15.4 – and then up again, which likely means he will top out at a 74 or 75 final Pace Figure for the Belmont, a little light to be considered in the top flight.
The play: REGRESSOR - His “basic view” graph looks like a runner who is more likely to regress than move forward.
Ride On Curlin (12-1)
Ride on Curlin (ROC) raced willingly in the Kentucky Derby, putting up a 76.3/60.3 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. Add those figures to his Final Pace Figure and 4F Pace Figure line (as seen below) and you have a runner whose Final Pace Figure continues to improve while his 4F Pace Figure decreases. This delineation of an increased dirt spread is a positive.
“ROC” did not disappoint us with his Preakness effort putting up an 80.9/69.4 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. While the final figure was a 4.6 point top, his 4F figure was 69.4, an indication that ROC has some ability to be closer to the pace. Further, looking back at his best three 4F figures, you'd find 82.1, 80.2 and 79.4 all which took place early in his career. As seen by his “basic view” graph below, his forward moving 4F figure from the Derby to the Preakness (60.3 – 69.4) represents a horse who is running a faster tempo and has potential to get back to an earlier (especially without Calvin Borel as the jockey immediately breaking to the rail) internal (4F) and Final Pace Figure.
The play: CONTENDER - A forward moving colt, who we expect to be closer to the lead than in the Preakness, has a controlled stalking style and positive line that could prove beneficial in this 12 furlong battle.
Matusak (30-1)
One of four “new shooters” to the Triple Crown fray, Matusak has won one start from eight tries earning $78K. And while his trainer – jockey combo of Bill Mott and Mike Smith is impressive, this late running colt has a monumental task ahead of him.
Turning to his Pace Figures, his lifetime best final figure is 73.1/64.3 three starts back, while most recently his final figures have been 65.5 and 64.1. Looking at the “basic view” graph as seen below, his lifetime Final Pace Figure average is just 68.1, the only runner of the Belmont field with a lifetime average in the 60's.
The play: TOO SLOW – actually, he is WAY TOO SLOW and by the looks of it, the owner wants to cross off a bucket list goal of running in the Belmont Stakes. Not competitive at this level.
Samraat (20-1)
His father, Noble Causeway passed away last Friday after a bout with laminitis. And whether Samraat knows it or not, this motivation combined with his status as the only New York bred runner in the race makes Samraat the true “David” against Goliath in the 2014 Belmont Stakes.
Here's what we had to say about Samraat heading into the Kentucky Derby:
Samraat's most recent Final Pace Figure of 78.6 in the Wood was just 0.3 higher than the previous top of 78.3 on 2/23. These Final Pace Figures are as close to a paired up top as you can get (back to back equal Final Pace Figures). The rise from a 71.4 in Samraat's first start to the 78.6 in the Wood shows a gradual increase in Final Pace Figures (which is a positive). As well, Samraat's two most recent Final Pace Figures average 78.5, second in the field behind Wildcat Red.
It is reasonable to expect this continued uneven distribution of energy as Samraat's 4f increases and Final Pace Figure is forced to decline as more energy is used early. Not playable.
This analysis of Samraat was spot on in the Derby. And while a 76.7/73.7 in the Derby is considered respectable, the decline in both the Final/4F Pace Figure from the Wood to the Derby looks like a colt on the decline.
The play: REGRESSOR – Check out his set of Final and 4F Pace Figure lines in the “basic view” graph. A set of regressing parallel lines shows a runner who's internal and final Pace Figures are on the decline.
Commissioner (20-1)
One of two Todd Pletcher's starters (he had five last year), Commissioner, skipped the first two legs of the Triple Crown after a subpar performance in the Arkansas Derby. He retains the services of jockey Javier Castellano who has owned Belmont Park spring/summer meet, winning at a clip of 22% and in the money 54% of the time since the start of the 2012 season.
Turning to his Pace Figures in the graph below, there is a real inconsistency to the Final/4F figures in every race. Commissioner's erratic nature makes it hard to make a case at any level. His lifetime top of 77.3/68.4 three races back was against Chitu who faltered at 10 furlongs in the Derby. To imagine Commissioner can stretch out to 12 furlongs while running a lifetime best Final Pace Figure seems unmanageable.
The play: TOO SLOW – a slower horse going a longer distance is always a challenge.
Wicked Strong (6-1)
Here's what we had to say about Wicked Strong prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Wicked Strong's most recent Final Pace Figure was 80.3, the fastest Final Pace Figure of all Derby starters. Wicked Strong continued his big step forward over the last three races from 69.6 (final on 1/25/14) to 75.4 (2/22/14) to 80.3 in the Wood. This 10.7 point jump over the course of three races is significant and could likely indicate a horse nearing or on a top. You'll also notice an up and down set of 4f Pace Figures, which shows inconsistency during the early part of the race, not ideal when pitted against 19 rivals. The play: REGRESSOR - Expected to be a lukewarm second choice and favorite of other pros, but the value is not there to back him. He ran a Final Page figure of almost seven points better in his last race than ever before, which is likely unsustainable.
As expected, Wicked Strong did regress in the Derby to 76.7/68 (Final/4F) Pace Figure. He broke from the 19 post and essentially never had a shot while willingly making up lengths in the stretch though never challenging the top three finishers. One of four Derby runners who skipped the Preakness opting for the Belmont, “Strong” does have two starts at Belmont early in his career.
Notice the Pace Figures for his first two career starts at Belmont and the associated Form Cycle Patterns – NEG and DTOP. A Negative Spread (NEG) is a negative Form Cycle Pattern for first time starters while a DTOP (Double Top is defined as a runner who put up his best Final and 4f Pace Figure in the same race) is also considered negative.
The play: REGRESSOR – Should run a similar to slightly slower race to what we saw in the Kentucky Derby, which still probably would not hit the board in this field.
General A Rod (20-1)
Here's what we had to say about the General before the Preakness:
General A Rod ran a 75.6/65.3 (final/4f) Pace Figure in the Derby which was continued regression. Note that his two biggest final Pace Figures came in races of 8 furlongs (76.2/81.2) and at 8.5 furlongs (79.9/81.5) and were accompanied by high 4f Pace Figures; therefore it would not be surprising to see Javier keep him closer to the lead. The play: TOO SLOW – Both internal (4f) and Final Pace Figures are too slow to be competitive in this race.
The partners in General A Rod are a good example about what is right in racing. They made the call a week before the race, based off one workout that he will run in the Belmont. Given he has run in three Grade I races and a Grade II in his last four outing, only Chrome and Curlin have competed at the same level.
General A Rod's Preakness effort from a Pace Figure perspective wasn't all that bad. He moved forward 2.3 points in his final figure (75.6 – 77.9), while putting up his best 4F figure in recent races. He retains the riding services of Rose Napravnik, the top female rider looking to become the second women to win the Belmont.
The play: GASSED - A grueling campaign has left the General A Rod on the outside looking in every start; there is no reason to expect anything different.
Tonalist (8-1)
A late developing three year old, Tonalist heads to the Belmont Stakes off a visually impressive performance in the Grade II Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 10th (note the four weeks rest). He broke a half step slow, rushed to the lead, settled in the middle of the race and drew off down the stretch while the jockey spent more time looking back than forward. Trained by Christophe Clement, a grass specialist, Tonalist takes Clement back to the Belmont for his second lifetime appearance (ran 4th with Dynever in 2003). Jockey Joel Rosario takes a calculated risk and chooses to move on to ride Tonalist instead of Ride on Curlin.
Turning to his Pace Figures, Tonalist has a unique line as seen by his graph below. Not only does he have a Form Cycle Pattern in every start, but his Final and 4F Pace Figures have increased consistently as well. Coined a “NDAW” (never done anything wrong) horse by Predicteform.com founder Cary Fotias, his unique set of parallel lines show forward growth in every start while maintaining a dirt spread range (Final Pace Figure minus the 4F Pace Figure) of 4.8 – 6 - 8.7 - 6.2. This tight spread range decreasing down to a 4.8 in the Peter Pan shows a runner who is managing his energy efficiently.
Focusing a bit deeper on his last start, Tonalist ran a 77.5/72.7 which is a New Pace Top (the best 4F figure of a horse's career without a clear max final Pace Figure). He is the only runner in the Belmont Stakes coming off a Form Cycle Pattern and the New Pace Top (NPT) is the best indicator of future improved performance on dirt. While California Chrome had to work hard with a long Preakness stretch drive, Tonalist cruised under the wire in his last race, dialing down with clearly something left in the tank.
The play: CONTENDER – Off a NPT with a previous race over the Belmont surface, decent rest and a tactical running style, plus at least 5:1 odds, Tonalist makes for a very enticing play on top and could be California Chrome's top competition.
Social Inclusion (Scratched)
Here's what we had to say about Social Inclusion before the Preakness:
Social Inclusion ran a big final Pace Figure first time out just three months ago on 2/22/2014 (77.4/83.5). This combination – a faster 4f Pace Figure (by at least four points) than a final Pace Figure is common for a new horse. Though, what is uncommon was his next race, an immediate Reversal Pattern (REV – Faster Final Pace Figure than 4f Pace Figure for the first time).
His most recent race, the Grade I Wood Memorial, proved he can compete at the highest level for three year olds. He ran a 78.6/78.4 (final/4f) which indicates a runner managing his energy effectively; his 6f Pace Figure was 76 that support the notion.
His visible change in running style in the Preakness along with a 78/75 (Final/4F) Pace Figure looks like a runner who is doing a better job of managing his speed. We would not be surprised to see a Belmont effort where he settles again.
The play: FRINGE CONTENDER – his Final Pace Figures are tailing off, while his 4F figures are on the decline. Best effort could get him in the money
Kid Cruz (Scratched)
Here's what we had to say about Cruz prior to the Preakness Stakes.
In January in New York at Aqueduct Racetrack, where it was near freezing with snow on the ground, Kid Cruz made up almost ten lengths in the stretch while putting up a 76.0/65.9. This is an indication that he can run a Pace Figure in the high 70's.
His most recent two efforts were 66.4/45 (final/4f with a SOFT pattern), followed by a 67.9/55.8 most recent - in both starts Cruz was pulling away at the wire. He stretches out to 9.5 furlongs, the longest race of his career and by all indications (based on his huge dirt spreads), Kid Cruz will relish the extra distance.
While Cruz's Pace Figures did increase in the Preakness to a 74.5/60.6 (Final/4F), his off-the-pace running style did not fit the shortest of the three Triple Crown races. The amount of ground Cruz had to make up down the stretch was insurmountable. The +8.2 move in his Final Pace Figure and +4.8 in the 4F figure are within a reasonable range given his prior lifetime top of 76.0/65.9. Though we expect a better effort and a forward step off the Preakness, Kid Cruz is still considered a long shot to hit the board.
The play: TOO SLOW - His Final and 4 Furlong Pace Figures are too slow plus his off-the-pace running style decreases his already longshot chances to hit the board.
