13-0-1 today

[mn fats]

...and I guess one can look at historical data to see what favorite odds level is best to start at if you were to never pick the dog. And you could see how well your theory holds up historically.

 

[Biz]

...and I guess one can look at historical data to see what favorite odds level is best to start at if you were to never pick the dog. And you could see how well your theory holds up historically.

How do you go about looking at historical data? One game at a time? That would be awfully time consuming.

 

[METFAN]

IT IS TRUE ABOUT THE WINNERS GOING OVER THE TEAM TOTAL BUT MANY TIMES THE GAMES
ARE LOW SCORING..Also several of the teams that won today were not the favorites. Yesterday as well..

good luck

 

[mn fats]

Yes, but the favorite can lose and still go over TT.

 

[mn fats]

Biz, one could look at last week's games that had favs of, say over -150. Wouldn't be that time consuming and would give some indication of theory viability.

 

[mn fats]

Damn, only game today that lost with your theory. So close - one more dang run. Well, the Cubs RL didn't win either.

 

[Biz]

Biz, one could look at last week's games that had favs of, say over -150. Wouldn't be that time consuming and would give some indication of theory viability.

One week? Seriously?

You need a lot more than 1 week to get any type of validity.

 

[mn fats]

Biz - ZERO indication of validity? Really? I said some indication. Of course it wouldn't approach proving the theory yet. But it would be a start. And earlier in this thread the talk was to start by tracking for the upcoming WEEK. If backtest, then can make more progress toward validity.

 

[anones]

I am trying your theory tonight with TB TT over, I liked the over but I will go with TB TT since I don't trust SD can score 4 or 5 runs tonight.

 

[Biz]

Biz - ZERO indication of validity? Really? I said some indication. Of course it wouldn't approach proving the theory yet. But it would be a start. And earlier in this thread the talk was to start by tracking for the upcoming WEEK. If backtest, then can make more progress toward validity.

Yes. Zero.

Short term results don't have much value. You need much more than that. Having a good week is nice, but it isn't enough data to be predictive.

I agree you have to start somewhere, might as well be this week.

 

[mn fats]

Biz, I think we have been practically in agreement all along. I don't think I have been communicating very well - sorry. btw - I was actually also thinking that after finding a one week back test doesn't take that terribly long, further backtesting would be done.

 

[KingEleven]

tried it w/ Wash, did not work but that is just one game of course.

 

[Biz]

Biz, I think we have been practically in agreement all along. I don't think I have been communicating very well - sorry. btw - I was actually also thinking that after finding a one week back test doesn't take that terribly long, further backtesting would be done.

No problem.