Make 50k annually on 50k bankroll ?

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Rx God
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Journeyman said:
Serious question Doug, why not just pay Fezzik and play his plays only? If he's that good....what kind of verifiable record does he have and for how many years, I am curious?:103631605

He's a well -known vegan. I first knew him from Stanford Wong's site, he posts at Rx, and has his own section of a site.


http://forums.lasvegasadvisor.com/categories.cfm?catid=36

He could reasonably be called a tout. I think he's written articles for RX, you ( J-man) should be at least familar with the guy ! I don't buy anybody's picks, but have learned a thing or two from " Steve Fezzik", a psuedonym. He hides behind a wig, and has a personna. I didn't attend last Bash, but I think he did !

Fezz claims about 55% and is an NFL guy, he has become a tout, but he's no foreigner to this forum.
 

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My track record is "only" 54% over the past 5 years.

And I make a good living betting sports.

I get a kick out of the "let's make $50,000 with $50,000" betting threads following the 60% capper. Double up the $50,000? How about turn $1,000 into 550 BILLION!

As documented in The Latest Version of Larry Grossman's Book You Can Bet On It, I write that a 60% bettor starting with a mere $1,000 investment who bets 10% of his bankroll on 1 game every day will, after going 1200-800 turn this into 550 Billion. And the order of wins and losses are irrrelevant. Basically, his bankroll is expected to grow 1% on average per play.

So, the next time someone tells you he has been hitting at 60% for years, ask him

1) Is he a multibillionaire*? or
2) Is he a horrific money manager?

Yes, I address the fact that at some point it becomes very hard to get the money down betting millions on games. Fair enough. Replace multibillionaire with multimillionaire.

:party:
 

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I know the name DOug...I was asking what are his credentials...of course I've seen him around, usually telling everyone they're wrong and he's right...

Why is it in this business of handicapping, the guys that charge for picks tell everyone else they're wrong? I've never figured that out, but they all seem to have that holier than thou attitude?

It was Fezzik who scoffed at me when I said New England would repeat as Champions and lose no more than two games ( before last season started ) thats about all I know of him....personally i wouldn't want the stress of anyone following my picks....I guess Fezzik must know his stuff :howdy:
 

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Fezzik said:
And I make a good living betting sports.

I get a kick out of the "let's make $50,000 with $50,000" betting threads following the 60% capper. Double up the $50,000? How about turn $1,000 into 550 BILLION!

As documented in The Latest Version of Larry Grossman's Book You Can Bet On It, I write that a 60% bettor starting with a mere $1,000 investment who bets 10% of his bankroll on 1 game every day will, after going 1200-800 turn this into 550 Billion. And the order of wins and losses are irrrelevant. Basically, his bankroll is expected to grow 1% on average per play.

So, the next time someone tells you he has been hitting at 60% for years, ask him

1) Is he a multibillionaire*? or
2) Is he a horrific money manager?

Yes, I address the fact that at some point it becomes very hard to get the money down betting millions on games. Fair enough. Replace multibillionaire with multimillionaire.

:party:


Fezzik , do you charge for all sports and if so what are your rates?
 

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I've quoted that article many times, " Steve". J-man should be aware of your existance ! You support my theory of not backing the hot-man. I appreciate your insights, but I refuse to buy your picks, I've learned from you, but I won't pay you !
 

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DougJ said:
It seems possible. Have 50K , bet 1% ( $500), follow Bucs MLB ( He wins 100 units yearly, like clockwork ( ?), that adds up to 50k ( right ?). Or you could bet Glaken Tennis, Steammaker Euro hockey, ACE-ACE in NFL, Winning systems MLB totals, or Frog NBA, or ???.

Why does this not work ?

Do we not have faith to follow them, and alter their picks ? Maybe we don't know who will be the hotshot ?

If anyone is worth a shot, I'd say Bucsand WS are best. They have statistical signifigance.

50K works for most people, that's like a $25/hour job minus benies. If it works you can bet more next year!

It's good on paper !

Roxy seems to follow everyone. Not a shot, gurl !


This ought to be easier than it is !


There should be way over a hundred units (50K), laying around ?






Just average $200 a day long-term, works fine too, that's 70K + annually !


Of course its possible but nothings a sure thing man if you play 1000 games a year thats not even that many less than 3 a day hit 57% and lets say with an avg of -110 $500 a game, if my math is right you'll win $285,000 and lose $236,500 so thats $48,500 profit. The key is to be dicipilne the rest is easy man.
 

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DougJ said:
I've quoted that article many times, " Steve". J-man should be aware of your existance ! You support my theory of not backing the hot-man. I appreciate your insights, but I refuse to buy your picks, I've learned from you, but I won't pay you !

Doug I DO know who he is ,lol...

Why wouldn't you pay for something that has a 54% track record? :103631605
 

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I would NEVER back someone who's already up 100 units halfway through baseball season!

Thats like being in a fantasy league and trading for a guy batting .400 in June in baseball. He may end up batting .325 but you will be stuck with him batting .275
 

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Fezzik said:
My track record is "only" 54% over the past 5 years.

Where may I examine your long term verifiable track record of 54% ATS at an unbiased 3rd party's legitimate website ?

Sorry fezzy .... your OWN website doe not qualify

:digit:

C'mon buddy, you make a living yaking on the radio and selling people dreams.

-K1
 

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Journeyman said:
I know the name DOug...I was asking what are his credentials...of course I've seen him around, usually telling everyone they're wrong and he's right...

Why is it in this business of handicapping, the guys that charge for picks tell everyone else they're wrong? I've never figured that out, but they all seem to have that holier than thou attitude?

It was Fezzik who scoffed at me when I said New England would repeat as Champions and lose no more than two games ( before last season started ) thats about all I know of him....personally i wouldn't want the stress of anyone following my picks....I guess Fezzik must know his stuff :howdy:

J; Take Fezz wor what he's worth or willing to give you ! He at least promptly responded. I'm sure he will advise you of his rates. I wouldn't judge any guy on a few games.

Diplomacy isn't his strength, he ain't the second coming of H. Kissinger ! He tends to talk down to people, but he's no dummy.

Steve is what he is, I know more about him but won't tout him furthur, you axed and received !


He's a tight buddy with O-Frog ! :monsters- :monsters- :monsters-
 

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:103631605
Journeyman said:
I would NEVER back someone who's already up 100 units halfway through baseball season!

Thats like being in a fantasy league and trading for a guy batting .400 in June in baseball. He may end up batting .325 but you will be stuck with him batting .275
 

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Journeyman said:
I would NEVER back someone who's already up 100 units halfway through baseball season!

Thats like being in a fantasy league and trading for a guy batting .400 in June in baseball. He may end up batting .325 but you will be stuck with him batting .275

So then fade JM plays ?
 
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I think in order to be successful, and double that bankroll it entails many different aspects. Just following a hot capper, may or may not help you. I had been hot for years in NFL and NBA. Last year I regressed back to mean, just like Fezzik, as it was a year where my type of plays, dogs and unders just got burned, week after week. Cappers tend to stick with what has been successful for them, however the sports may not follow suit. NBA, still clicking, especially props. However, you need that Omnivorous approach, to take everything in. You need to work bonuses, to hop around and collect as many as possible, sign up and loyalty, referral if possible. You also need to scalp, grind away that minimum wage. And do not forget middling, the small risk for the big payday. The one hindrance to a 50K bankroll is thin spread. You will spend a lot of time shifting funds and possibly eating up some profits. Next, you require, not should have a line service. For $550. a month, you must earn well just to overcome that monthly expense. I think once you run through bonuses and rollover requirements you need to have your bankroll allocated properly. Where are the best numbers? Maybe 10% is in Pinny. You will have to get a feel of that for your business. To just follow hot cappers, who in most liklihood will regress to the mean is almost the worst approach you could have. You need multiple avenues of income. Then you need dedication, and perseverence. I put in many 16+ hour days in the cooker.

Next, the pitfalls. You need zero distractions. You need to be rested, focused and physically/mentally well. Because if you are not, you could be like an old pinball machine, tilt. Or chase, or exceed % of bankroll bet, and go into a tankroll. When your bankroll goes into the tank. No alcohol during business hours. With dope there is hope, if you can cope. But then you get strungout. If you are following that hot capper that turns so cold he could sink the Titanic you have to make a decision, cut losses and quit or keep following. So much judgement or right calls required. All of us cappers go through a snakebit run, myself included. Then there is burnout. I myself I subject to that from the intensity I need to motivate myself. Without intensity I am average at best. With it, I can be the beast. You may not like this part, but there is a lot of luck involved. Call them swing games. During this NBA Playoffs I had a brutal run where the gambling goddess spit in my face 9 out of 10 games. Many were last second, less than a minute, 1 ft beats. That is the time when all discliplines are tested. It is easy to keep earning, but when things go south, you better be strong. My hopes are to hit just 50% of the swing games. But they are volatile, with huge swings in the swing games.
You also should have a% objective, or goal. For me 10% of bankroll per month, after expenses is my minimum goal. You must realize this is the longest term marathon ever. Not a week, month or year, but a neverending timeline. Get rich quick bet half the roll people are just casualties of poor money management, and if you make any of the aforementioned mistakes, the books are more than willing to make you pay. Hope this helps somewhat.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 

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Journeyman said:
Doug I DO know who he is ,lol...

Why wouldn't you pay for something that has a 54% track record? :103631605

I would if I knew it would go 54% going forward !

J-man: Are you sure you're not a Fezzophile ? You gave him a free ad !
 

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No need to buy any of my picks right now.

The only basketball picks I give out are NCAA tourney my weighted record was (24-19) and NBA playoffs (55-54). Not a good year, especially considering the NBA playoffs were very beatable this year, IMO. Frankly, I think I did a very lousy job in my selections I gave out.

I make all my real money betting, not touting, and certainly not through writing/radio gigs.

Anyone who wants a leg up on NFL football can get my suggested NFL week 1 line moves posted for free at Fezziksplace.com.

Also, you can find me in the Las Vegas Contests, where I enter under "Fezzik".

As far as how real pros make real money betting? Olympic opened Det/SA game one at 181 points. They opened the total at 175 for game 2, Pinny 174. People will spend hours and hours debating the right side on the 171 total the next two days (if it hits 170, I will go over). The best bettors caught the big piece of the flop bombing in the under at open, however. Was that me? Not this time. Dropped the ball on both, which goes back to Frog's excellent post about needing to be fully focused at all times. By not betting that game 1 under 181 (or 180 or 179) at open, I broke even, but it really was the same as losing a big bet.

:monsters-
 

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DougJ said:
I would if I knew it would go 54% going forward !

J-man: Are you sure you're not a Fezzophile ? You gave him a free ad !

I've never lost at baseball for a season Doug...

I don't recommend ever playing any of my bets...EVER! the only reason I'm posting them is because one person asked me too....I don't ever want anyone following me, I would feel awful if someone lost money because of a game I suggested....don't fade me though :103631605
 

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Fezzik said:
The only basketball picks I give out are NCAA tourney my weighted record was (24-19) and NBA playoffs (55-54). Not a good year, especially considering the NBA playoffs were very beatable this year, IMO. Frankly, I think I did a very lousy job in my selections I gave out.

I make all my real money betting, not touting, and certainly not through writing/radio gigs.

Anyone who wants a leg up on NFL football can get my suggested NFL week 1 line moves posted for free at Fezziksplace.com.

Also, you can find me in the Las Vegas Contests, where I enter under "Fezzik".

I appreciate your honesty and humble attitude. I have been slightly offended in the past, because you came across, at least to me, as a "holier than though, I never lose sharp." I know that you have forgotten more than I'll ever know about sportsbetting, but that doesn't make me a loser. It's nice to see that you're human, and willing to admit it. Don't be a stranger, since we can all learn from you.
 

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Journeyman said:
I've never lost at baseball for a season Doug...

I don't recommend ever playing any of my bets...EVER! the only reason I'm posting them is because one person asked me too....I don't ever want anyone following me, I would feel awful if someone lost money because of a game I suggested....don't fade me though :103631605

If you follow a man, follow him on all bets, don't judge by one game !
 

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OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
I think in order to be successful, and double that bankroll it entails many different aspects. Just following a hot capper, may or may not help you. I had been hot for years in NFL and NBA. Last year I regressed back to mean, just like Fezzik, as it was a year where my type of plays, dogs and unders just got burned, week after week. Cappers tend to stick with what has been successful for them, however the sports may not follow suit. NBA, still clicking, especially props. However, you need that Omnivorous approach, to take everything in. You need to work bonuses, to hop around and collect as many as possible, sign up and loyalty, referral if possible. You also need to scalp, grind away that minimum wage. And do not forget middling, the small risk for the big payday. The one hindrance to a 50K bankroll is thin spread. You will spend a lot of time shifting funds and possibly eating up some profits. Next, you require, not should have a line service. For $550. a month, you must earn well just to overcome that monthly expense. I think once you run through bonuses and rollover requirements you need to have your bankroll allocated properly. Where are the best numbers? Maybe 10% is in Pinny. You will have to get a feel of that for your business. To just follow hot cappers, who in most liklihood will regress to the mean is almost the worst approach you could have. You need multiple avenues of income. Then you need dedication, and perseverence. I put in many 16+ hour days in the cooker.

Next, the pitfalls. You need zero distractions. You need to be rested, focused and physically/mentally well. Because if you are not, you could be like an old pinball machine, tilt. Or chase, or exceed % of bankroll bet, and go into a tankroll. When your bankroll goes into the tank. No alcohol during business hours. With dope there is hope, if you can cope. But then you get strungout. If you are following that hot capper that turns so cold he could sink the Titanic you have to make a decision, cut losses and quit or keep following. So much judgement or right calls required. All of us cappers go through a snakebit run, myself included. Then there is burnout. I myself I subject to that from the intensity I need to motivate myself. Without intensity I am average at best. With it, I can be the beast. You may not like this part, but there is a lot of luck involved. Call them swing games. During this NBA Playoffs I had a brutal run where the gambling goddess spit in my face 9 out of 10 games. Many were last second, less than a minute, 1 ft beats. That is the time when all discliplines are tested. It is easy to keep earning, but when things go south, you better be strong. My hopes are to hit just 50% of the swing games. But they are volatile, with huge swings in the swing games.
You also should have a% objective, or goal. For me 10% of bankroll per month, after expenses is my minimum goal. You must realize this is the longest term marathon ever. Not a week, month or year, but a neverending timeline. Get rich quick bet half the roll people are just casualties of poor money management, and if you make any of the aforementioned mistakes, the books are more than willing to make you pay. Hope this helps somewhat.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:


Yes , Frog it's a fine line between winning and losing. You can have ten bets going on the 7pm MLB games, and look like you will go 8-2 or better, then go 4-6, or worse !

No rebuttal to the Fezz buddy comment ?

You're abrasive, even cut down OMT, how'd that pass ?

I think over my bets after they are decided, which were dead wrong, marginal, clearly correct, and bad beats !
 
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Why Thank You Mr. Fezzik for the nice props. You bring up an excellent point I omitted, missed opportunities. Sometimes a number is just plain bad. Everyone in the world sees it. It may move fast, it may move glacierlike. Must it does move, and pretty soon most if not all of the value has been drained out. If you are asleep at the wheel/screen, you miss the opportunity. Good cliche, shit or get off the pot. These missed opportunies equate to half losses, you did not lose, but you did not earn, when you should have. Opportunites like these present themselves infrequently. And you rarely get second chances. Another way I like to refer to it, is leaving money on the table. All you have to do is pick it up.

Steve, if I had to do those radio gigs and write articles, I would probably lose money from the time spent not capping and devoting time to the media relations. Hope you saw my Sheed un prop. I cap the props thoroughly, and my numbers are tighter than theirs. Think I played a lot of bench props and Shaq to miss first ft last year. Good thing about widespread props are various numbers with various odds. I had anywhere from un 21 1/2 +.45 to un 23 1/2 -.15. Two points variance on a 22 point number is huge. Hope to speak with you in person, as you still have many observations that echo mine. Always good to bounce ideas of a person in the business. No craps discussions. Ribbet.

Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
 

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