NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Friday’s games
Wisconsin @ Purdue
Wisconsin (2-1)
— Badgers lost their only road game, 31-22 (-5.5) @ Wazzu.
— Wisconsin scored 35-38 points in its wins, both by 21 points.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 97 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 24 games at SMU.
— last 10+ years, Badgers are 23-13 ATS as a road favorite.
— last three years, Badgers awere 10-14 ATS in the Big 14.
— Wisconsin’s 7-6 record LY was their worst since 2008.
— Wisconsin won/covered its last three bowls.
Purdue (1-2)
— Purdue is 0-2 at home; 39-35 to Fresno State, 35-20 to Virginia Tech.
— Boilers gave up 487-455 total yards in the two losses.
— Purdue’s one win: 24-17 at 0-3 Virginia.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started five games at Texas.
— Purdue is 5-13 ATS in its last 17 home games.
— Boilers are 10-15 ATS in last 25 conference games.
— Purdue are -2 in turnovers; they hasn’t finished year with +TO ratio since 2017.
— Wisconsin won last 16 series games.
— Badgers won/covered their last eight visits to Purdue.
— Last four series games went over the total.
NC State @ Virginia
NC State (2-1)
— senior QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia.
— Wolfpack is 2-1 SU/0-2 ATS so far this season.
— State outgained the Huskies 364-320.
— State won only road game, 24-14 (-14) @ UConn.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— since 2019, State is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last five years, Wolfpack is 18-23-1 ATS in ACC games.
— State’s only loss: 45-24 (+7.5) at home to Notre Dame.
Virginia (0-3)
— Virginia lost its first three games, giving up 49-36-42 points.
— Cavaliers have been outgained by 132 yards/game.
— All three of their games went over the total.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 17 starts back on offensive line.
— true frosh QB is 45-72/652 passing, with 3 TD’s, 4 INT’s
— previous QB started 30 games, transferred to NC State.
— since 2018, Virginia is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— since 2020, Cavaliers are 15-9 ATS in the ACC.
— Virginia has a minus-4 turnover ratio.
— NC State won four of last five series games.
— Wolfpack covered four of last five visits to Charlottesville.
— Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
Boise State @ San Diego State
Boise State (1-2)
— Boise State is 0-2 vs I-A teams, scoring 19-16 points.
— Boise gave up 568-530 TY in those two games.
— Broncos’ only win was 42-18 over a I-AA team.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Last four years, Boise is 6-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2018, Broncos are 28-14-1 ATS in conference games.
— Last 6+ years, Boise is +29 in turnovers (-2 TY).
San Diego State (2-2)
— Aztecs lost last two games, scoring 10-9 points vs Pac-12 teams.
— Aztecs’ only I-A win: 20-13 (-2.5) over Ohio U.
— Ohio U outgained the Aztecs, 380-309.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— since 2013, Aztecs are 10-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, San Diego State was 10-11-1 ATS in conference games.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Teams split their last eight meetings.
— Boise was 0-3 in those games when they scored less than 31 points.
— Broncos covered once in their last four visits to San Diego.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Air Force @ San Jose State
Air Force (3-0)
— Air Force’s I-A wins: 13-3 (-13) at Sam Houston/39-21 (-9) over Utah State.
— last 4+ years, Air Force is 37-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 10 passes, run ball 43 times so far.
— Air Force has been favored in 36 of its last 47 games.
— Last 2+ years, Air Force is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2019, Flyboys are 18-11 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
San Jose State (1-3)
— Spartans are 0-3 vs I-A teams, losing by 28-25-4 points.
— San Jose scored 28-17-17 points in the three losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— under Brennan, Spartans are 9-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— under Brennan, San Jose is 26-20-1 ATS in conference tilts.
— San Jose ran for 198 yards at USC, was outgained 501-396.
— Spartans gave up 197-229 rushing yards in losses to Oregon State/Toledo
— These teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Air Force won three of last four meetings.
— San Jose State covered four of last five meetings.
Saturday’s top 13 games
Texas Tech @ West Virginia
Texas Tech (1-2)
— Tech is 0-2 vs I-A teams: 35-33 (OT) at Wyoming/38-30 at home to Oregon.
— Red Raiders gained 431/456 TY in the two losses.
— Tech won its last game 41-3 over a I-AA team.
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 16 games
— since 2014, Tech is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— last two years, Red Raiders are 4-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.
West Virginia (2-1)
— WVU split its two I-A games, scoring 15-17 points.
— WVU gained 308-211 total yards in those games.
— WVU is 24-26 SU/23-26 ATS in 4+ years under Brown.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started two games last year.
— Under Brown, WVU is 5-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Brown, WVU is 15-20 ATS in the Big X.
— since 2016, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in bowl games
— Texas Tech won/covered last four meetings.
— Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Morgantown.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina
Mississippi State (2-1)
— New coach TY after Mike Leach passed away last year.
— Miss State beat Arizona 31-24 (-9)/lost 41-14 to LSU.
— Last three years, Bulldogs were 7-3 ATS as a road dog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has started 32 games.
— Bulldogs are 14-21 ATS in last 35 SEC games.
— Miss State gave up 707 passing yards in its two I-A games.
— Bulldogs are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.
South Carolina (1-2)
— South Carolina is 0-2 vs I-A teams, losing 31-17/24-14.
— Gamecocks beat a I-AA team 47-21 for its one win.
— 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they added two I-AA transfers, too.
— Junior QB has 30 starts, 13 of them at Oklahoma.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-9 ATS in the SEC.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— SC’s new offensive coordinator has been an OC in the NFL.
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls.
— South Carolina won seven of last eight series games.
— Bulldogs are 0-3 ATS in last three visits to Columbia.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Florida State @ Clemson
Florida State (3-0)
— Seminoles scored 45-66-31 points in their three wins.
— FSU was outgained 457-340 in 31-29 win at BC last week.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— senior QB has 26 starts; he threw for 3,214 yards LY.
— since 2017, Seminoles are 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— under Norvell, FSU is 12-13 ATS in the ACC.
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— Over is 3-0 in their games this season.
Clemson (2-1)
— Tigers lost 28-7 at Duke, beat FAU 48-14 in its I-A games.
— Clemson has been favored in its last 46 home games, until now.
— Last 10+ years, Clemson is 123-19 SU.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB threw 100 passes LY, but started only once.
— since 2013, Tigers are 2-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— last 5+ years, Clemson is 30-13-1 ATS in ACC games.
— last two years, Clemson is 9-12 ATS coming off a win.
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.
— Clemson won last seven meetings, covered last five.
— FSU is 2-8 ATS in last ten visits to Clemson.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
North Carolina (3-0)
— in 4+ years under Brown, UNC is 33-22 SU/26-28-1 ATS.
— Tar Heels covered two of three games TY.
— in those games, UNC gained 437-527-519 total yards.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 14 starts; he threw 38 TD’s last year.
— last three years, Tar Heels were 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— last two years, UNC was 7-10 ATS in the ACC.
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
Pittsburgh (1-2)
— Pitt lost 27-21 (-6) to Cincinnati. 17-6 (+2.5) at home to WVU.
— Pitt beat up a I-AA stiff 45-7 for its only win.
— Panthers gained 262-211 total yards in its two I-A games.
— Last 2+ years, Panthers are 21-9 SU/16-13 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; 3 starters are back.
— senior QB Jurkovec started 24 games at Boston College
— since 2018, Panthers are 6-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 21-30-2 ATS at home.
— Pitt split its last four bowls; 3 of the 4 were decided by 4 or less points.
— North Carolina won seven of last nine meetings.
— Tar Heels lost 30-23/34-27 in last two visits to Pittsburgh.
— Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State
Oklahoma State (2-1)
— OSU got whacked 33-7 LW by South Alabama of Sun Belt.
— Cowboys won their only road game, 27-15 (-2.5) at Arizona State.
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Under Gundy, Cowboys are 20-16 ATS as a road underdog.
— OSU is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 Big X games.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.
Iowa State (1-1)
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is 50-81/549 in first three games.
— Cyclones lost 20-13 to Iowa, 10-7 at Ohio U in I-A tilts.
— Iowa State gained 290-271 yards in those two losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— under Campbell, ISU is 14-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— last 2 years, Iowa State is 7-11 ATS in conference games.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— under Campbell, ISU is 23-14-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Oklahoma State won nine of last 11 meetings.
— Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in last five visits to Ames.
— Last four series games stayed under the total.
UCLA @ Utah
UCLA (3-0)
— UCLA won its I-A games 27-13 (-15), 35-10 (-13.5)
— Bruins outrushed Coastal Carolina/San Diego State 407-119
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— freshman QB Moore started last two games.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 18-13 ATS as underdogs, 10-7 on road.
— Since 2019, UCLA is 20-14 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.
Utah (3-0)
— Utes (-5) beat Florida 24-11, Baylor 20-13 (-7.5)
— Utah QB Rising (knee) missed first three games (check status)
— Utes played two QBs so far; one is more of a runner.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— senior QB (Rising) has started 24 games, none this year.
— Last 4+ years, Utes are 37-13 SU.
— since 2017, Utah is 22-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, Utah is 41-22 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
— Utah won five of last six series games.
— Bruins are 2-5 ATS in last seven games at Utah.
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six meetings.
Arizona @ Stanford
Arizona (2-1)
— Arizona lost 31-24 at Miss State/beat UTEP 31-10 and a I-AA team
— Wildcats gained 431-544 TY in their two I-A games.
— last 3+ years, Arizona is 8-24 SU (minus-37 in turnovers)
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 27 starts, 15 of them at Washington State.
— Arizona is a road favorite for first time since 2019.
— last 4+ years, Arizona is 2-7 ATS as a favorite.
— Arizona hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2017.
Stanford (1-2)
— Cardinal lost last two games, giving up 573-448 TY
— Stanford’s loss LW was to I-AA Sac State, coach Taylor’s old school.
— Stanford (-2) won its opener, 37-24 at Hawai’i.
— Rainbows passed for 355 yards in that game.
— last two years, Cardinal went 3-9/3-9; TY they’ve got new coach.
— last 27 games, Stanford is -23 in turnovers.
— 3 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 15 starts back on offensive line.
— New coach, soph QB, only 6 of 22 starters back.
— last two years, Stanford is 2-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— Cardinal is 9-24-1 ATS in last 34 conference games.
— Stanford hasn’t gone bowling since 2018.
— Stanford won last six series games (5-1 ATS)
— Arizona is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Palo Alto.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Oregon State @ Washington State
Oregon State (3-0)
— Beavers scored 42-26 points in first two I-A wins.
— OSU won only road game, 42-17 at San Jose State (-14)
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 28 games at Clemson.
— Under Smith, OSU is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Smith, Beavers are 18-7-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Under Smith, underdogs are 19-7 ATS in OSU road games.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).
Washington State (3-0)
— Wazzu won 50-24 at Colorado State, 31-22 over Wisconsin.
— Coogs ran for only 171 yards, threw for 717 in those two games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY, threw for 3,231 yards, 23 TD’s.
— Coogs are 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
— Wazzu is 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 conference games.
— under Dickert, Coogs are 17-12 SU, +16 in turnovers.
— Wazzu went bowling five of last six years (1-4 SU/0-5 ATS)
— Wazzu won eight of last nine meetings.
— Beavers are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to the Paloose.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.
SMU @ TCU
SMU (2-1)
— SMU (-21) beat La Tech 38-14, lost 28-11 (+16) at Oklahoma.
— SMU outgained the Sooners, 267-265.
— last 4+ years, SMU is 34-17 SU/24-26 ATS.
— last three years, Mustangs are 1-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— LY’s QB bolted to Wisconsin; soph QB has 2 starts.
— new QB Preston is 64-102/798 passing, with 9 TD’s, 2 INT.
— Last 4+ years, SMU is 11-8 ATS outside the AAC
— SMU qualified for a bowl 4 of last 5 years; last bowl win, 2012.
TCU (2-1)
— TCU (-21) lost 45-42 to Colorado, won 36-13 (-7) at Houston.
— Horned Frogs gave up 510 passing yards to Colorado.
— TCU ran ball for 262-250 yards in their two I-A tilts.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started three games.
— in his career, coach Dykes is 25-18 ATS as a home favorite.
— TCU is 5-2 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— TCU went 13-2 LY, but lost national title game 65-7 to Georgia.
— Four years before LY, Horned Frogs were 22-23 SU.
— TCU qualified for a bowl in four of last six seasons.
— TCU is 18-4 in last 22 series games, 1-2 in last three.
— Mustangs are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine visits to their local rivals.
— Over is 11-3 in last 14 meetings.
— AAC teams are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games vs Big X opponents.
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Ole Miss (3-0)
— Ole Miss won its two I-A games, 37-20 vs Tulane, 48-23 vs Ga Tech.
— Rebels gave up 307 PY in its win over Georgia Tech LW.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB started 12 games last year.
— they added transfer QB with 41 starts at Oklahoma State
— In his college career, Kiffin is 30-24-1 ATS on road.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 14-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 11-14 ATS in the SEC.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Alabama (2-1)
— Alabama has played three QB’s already; original starter Milroe starts here.
— Crimson Tide scored 24-17 points in its last two games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— Crimson Tide gave up 349 PY in the 34-24 loss to Texas.
— Alabama is +1 in turnovers since start of LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Last 3+ years, Alabama is 14-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Alabama is 7-10-1 ATS in its last 18 SEC games.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— Alabama won last seven meetings; Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS in last four.
— Rebels are 6-3 ATS in last nine visits to Tuscaloosa.
— Under is 9-6 in last 15 series games.
Texas @ Baylor
Texas (3-0)
— Texas won its first three games, scoring 37-34-31 points.
— Texas covered only one of the three games.
— Texas is 16-12 last 2+ years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-6 ATS at home, 4-6 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 8-8 ATS as road favorite.
— since 2018, Texas is 6-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— Since 2018, Texas is 19-26 ATS in Big X games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
Baylor (1-2)
— Baylor (-27) lost 42-31 to Texas State, lost 20-13 (+7.5) to Utah.
— Bears completed less than half their passes the last two games.
— Baylor QB Shapen has been hurt; check status.
— last 4+ years, Baylor is 32-21 SU (+32 in turnovers)
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 54 starts back on offensive line; 2 of 3 starters will be transfers.
— soph backup QB is making his first start.
— since 2018, Bears are 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— under Aranda, Baylor is 15-13 ATS in Big X games.
— Bears are 3-2 SU in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of 5 games.
— Home team won last five meetings.
— Texas lost 31-24/24-10 in last two visits to Waco.
— Overall, Longhorns are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
— Under is 9-1 in last ten series games.
Auburn @ Texas A&M
Auburn (3-0)
— Tigers beat UMass 59-14/Cal Bears 14-10 in their I-A games.
— Last three years, Auburn was 17-19 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— sophomore QB started 9 games last year.
— In his career, Freeze is 25-10 ATS as an underdog.
— In his career, Freeze is 29-22 ATS in road games.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Freeze is Auburn’s third coach in 4 years.
Texas A&M (2-1)
— Aggies scored 52-33-47 points in its first three games.
— A&M lost 48-33 at Miami, giving up 374 PY
— A&M won its home games over stiffs, 52-10/47-3
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— Soph QB Weigman started 4 games last year.
— under Fisher, Aggies are 24-8 ATS as a favorite.
— in his career, Fisher is 44-33-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— last two years, A&M was 7-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
— Auburn won four of last six meetings.
— Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in last five visits to College Station.
— Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Ohio State @ Notre Dame
Ohio State (3-0)
— Ohio State won its first road game, 23-3 at Indiana (-30)
— Buckeyes allowed 3-10 points in winning its two I-A games.
— Last ten years, Buckeyes are 119-15 SU/69-63-1 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— junior QB McCord is 53-76/815 passing, with 6 TD’s, one INT.
— Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a road favorite.
— Under Day, Ohio State is 8-10 ATS outside the Big 14
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.
Notre Dame (4-0)
— Notre Dame scored 42-45-41 points in its three I-A wins.
— LY’s offensive coordinator bolted to Alabama; new OC was TE coach.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish are 4-1 ATS last five games as an underdog
— Since start of ’22, ND is even in turnovers (+32 from 2019-21)
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— Ohio State beat Notre Dame 21-10 (-16.5) LY, outgaining them 395-253.
— Before that previous series game was in 2015.
