2023 NCAA FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS & NEWS AND NOTES!

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
— Bucks 130, Knicks 111- This was Milwaukee’s first road game in December.
— Celtics 145, Clippers 108- Boston made 25 of 53 3-point shots.
— Nuggets 102, Bulls 95- Denver outscored Bulls 30-9 in third quarter.
— Magic 117, Pacers 110- Orlando’s five subs were a combined +56.
— Rockets 106, Pelicans 104- Sengun scored 37 points, had 11 rebounds.
— Grizzlies 125, Hawks 119- Memphis outscored Atlanta 75-59 in second half.

Thought of the Day
“You do not need to parachute to go skydiving………
……..you do need a parachute if you want to go skydiving twice.”

Thursday’s quiz
Giants’ rookie QB Tommy DeVito played college football at which two schools?

Saturday’s quiz
James Harden was the last American player to win MVP in the NBA, six years ago.

Friday’s quiz
When Matthew Stafford was a high school QB in Texas, Clayton Kershaw was the center on that team.

***************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..​

Steelers 34, Bengals 11
QB Rudolph threw an 86-yard TD pass on the Steelers’ 2nd play of game.
WR Pickens caught four passes for 195 yards, two TD’s.
Steelers in first half: 33 plays, 263 yards; they led 24-0 at the half.
since 2018, Steelers are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Bengals are 0-5 SU vs AFC North rivals, 8-2 vs everyone else.
Cincinnati turned ball over twice on its first four drives.
Bengals’ only TD was 80-yard pass to Higgins on first play of third quarter.
Six of Bengals’ last seven games went over the total.

Bills 24, Chargers 22
Buffalo kicked a 29-yard FG with 0:28 left for the win.
Bills were 5-10 on third down, Chargers 4-14.
Buffalo scored 28.2 ppg in five games since firing their OC.
Buffalo won/covered four of those five games.
Chargers lost despite being +3 in turnovers.
Bolts scored six times, but it was 5 field goals, only one TD.
Chargers have only six TD’s on their last 56 drives.
Chargers lost six of their last seven games.

— Florida Atlantic 96, Arizona 95 2OT
Arizona led 19-5 early on.
Owls shot 58.3% inside the arc.
FAU is 10-2 this season, vs schedule #28.
Arizona out-rebounded FAU, 52-39.

— Providence 75, Butler 65 OT
Friars led 15-0 out of the box, but……..
…….Friars forced OT on a 3-point shot with 0:02 left.
Seven players in this game played 39+ minutes.

— UConn 69, St John’s 65
Red Storm led 32-26 at halftime.
Teams combined to shoot 9-36 on the arc.
Newton scored 15 points, had 9 rebounds, 6 assists for UConn.

— Memphis 77, Vanderbilt 75
Vandy led by 8 points with 7:56 left in game.
Vandy’s team was 17-22 on the foul line.
Memphis star Jones was 12-18 on foul line, scored 28 points.
Vanderbilt is 1-8 vs teams ranked in top 200.

— Nets 126, Pistons 115
Detroit has lost 26 games in a row (7-19 ATS)
Pistons were +6 in the 35:00 with PG Ivey on the floor.

— Word of the Day: Continuity- when something keep happening or existing, with no great changes or interruptions.
College basketball teams with better continuity have an advantage; they’re used to playing together.

— Duke 17, Troy 10
Duke has now won/covered its last five bowl games.
Blue Devils led this game 14-0 at halftime.
Troy ran ball 26 times for only 89 yards.
Both head coaches had already bolted to bigger $$$ jobs.

— Northern Illinois 21, Arkansas State 19
Ark State scored a TD with 1:14 left, but 2-point conversion failed.
NIU’s first four drives: 30 plays, 220 yards, 21 points.
NIU rest of game: 44 plays, 201 yards, no points.
Huskies snapped a 7-game losing streak in bowl games.

— Air Force 31, James Madison 21
Falcons ran ball 63 times for 351 yards.
Air Force led 21-7 at half; they threw 5 passes the whole game.
Eight of Air Force’s nine I-A wins were by 10+ points.
Falcons won their last five bowl games, scoring 33.6 ppg.

— Georgia State 45, Utah State 22
Georgia State in first half: 40 plays, 396 yards, 31 points.
QB Grainger was 19-22/257 passing, with three TD’s.
Panthers outgained Utah State, 643-347.
RB Brock carried ball 24 times for 276 yards and a TD.

— South Alabama 59, Eastern Michigan 10
Jaguars led 38-3 at halftime.
USA’s first six drives: 36 plays, 296 yards, 31 points.
Freshman QB Lopez threw for 192 yards, ran for 88 more.
This was South Alabama’s first win in four bowl games.

— Northwestern 14, Utah 7
Northwestern drove 53 yards, scored game-winning TD with 6:19 left.
Wildcats finish season on a 4-game winning streak.
Utah is 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
Utah lost its last five bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 26

Quick Lane Bowl (@ Detroit)
Bowling Green vs Minnesota (-3.5)
Bowling Green (7-5)
— Bowling Green won five of its last six games.
— Last eight games, Bowling Green has a +13 turnover ratio.
— Falcons have played only two games decided by less than 10 points.
— Falcons won four of their last five games away from home.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line, are expected to improve.
— junior QB Bazelak started 29 games at Missouri/Indiana.
— Falcons are 16-10-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
— BG is 3-3 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Bowling Green lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS)
— This is Falcons’ first winning season since 2015.
— Last year, Bowling Green (-6.5) lost this bowl 30-27 to Pitt.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS.


Minnesota (5-7)
— Gophers are somehow in a bowl, despite their 5-7 record.
— Minnesota lost its last four games, giving up 35.3 ppg.
— Gophers are 2-5 ATS as a favorite this year.
— In his career, Fleck is 5-2 SU in bowls.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started five games last year.
— This year, Minnesota is 3-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Fleck, Minnesota is 22-20-1 ATS as a favorite.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Gophers won their last six bowls, were underdog in three of them.
— Minnesota won this bowl in 2015/2018.
— Big 14 non-conference favorites are 11-14 ATS this year.


— Two years ago, Bowling Green (+31) upset Minnesota, 14-10.
— Underdogs are 6-3 ATS in last nine Quick Lane Bowls.
— since 2013, MAC teams are 2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Last two years, MAC teams are 8-7 ATS vs Big 14 opponents.


First Responder Bowl (@ Dallas)
Texas State (-4) vs Rice
Texas State (7-5)
— This is Texas State’s first-ever bowl; they’ll be excited.
— Texas State lost three of last five games, after a 5-2 start.
— Bobcats are 6-0 when they score 35+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— Bobcats (+27) stunned Baylor 42-31 in September.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 3 games at Auburn, also played at LSU
— Bobcats are 2-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Texas State is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Texas State is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
— TSU’s coach was 12-2 LY at I-AA Incarnate Word.
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-6 ATS this year.


Rice (6-6)
— Rice won its two games, to become bowl eligible
— Owls are 5-0 when they allow 21 or less points.
— Rice gave up 30+ points in all its losses this season.
— under Bloomgren, Rice is 28-19 ATS as an underdog (5-1 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has completed 63.6% of his passes, thrown 15 TD’s, 5 INT’s.
— This year, Rice is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Rice is minus-5 in turnovers this year (minus-13 last year)
— Last three Rice games stayed under the total.
— Rice got to a bowl LY, its first bowl since 2014.
— Owls are 3-2 SU in their last five bowls.
— AAC underdogs are 10-18 ATS in non-league games.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2013, favorites are 5-3-1 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2020, Sun Belt teams are 14-6 ATS vs AAC opponents (6-3 TY)


Guaranteed Rate Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Kansas vs UNLV
Kansas (8-4)
— Jayhawks split their last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Five of their last six games were decided by 7 or less points.
— Kansas gave up 31+ points in three of four losses.
— Jayhawks are 7-1 when they give up 30 or less points.
— Last three games, Jayhawks ran ball for 251 yards/game.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 6-4 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Leipold is 2-2 ATS in bowl games.
— Kansas is 5-1 ATS in last six non-league games.
— three of last four Kansas games stayed under the total.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Jayhawks won three of their last four bowl games.
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS.


UNLV (9-4)
— Rebels are in their first bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
— UNLV lost its last two games, giving up 37-44 points.
— Rebels gave up 35-31-37-44 points in their four losses.
— Last three games, UNLV gave up 292.7 rushing yards/game.
— Rebels are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— frosh QB has completed 63% of passes (14 TD’s, 8 INT)
— UNLV is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
— Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 16-9 ATS.
— Coach Odom is 0-2 as a head coach in bowls.


— These teams haven’t met since 2003.
— Average total in this bowl the last four times, 33.5.
— Favorites covered four of last five Guaranteed Rate Bowls.


December 27

Military Bowl (@ Annapolis, MD)
Virginia Tech (-8.5) vs Tulane
Virginia Tech (6-6)
— Tech won four of last six games, after a 2-4 start.
— Hokies scored 30+ points in wins, 17 or less in 5 of 6 losses.
— Tech is 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— soph QB Drones completed 58.3% of passes (15 TDs, 3 INT’s)
— TY, Hokies are 5-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Fry, Tech is 2-6 ATS in non-ACC games.
— Over is 6-2 in Hokies’ last six games.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016.
— ACC non-conference favorites are 13-10 ATS.


Tulane (11-2)
— Tulane’s coach bolted for the $$$ to Houston.
— Tulane is 10-1 in its last ten games since 37-20 loss to Ole Miss.
— Tulane was held to 20-14 points in its two losses.
— This is only 2nd time this year Green Wave is an underdog.
— Green Wave is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.
— Tulane has four wins by 7 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— Under is 11-1 in Tulane’s last 12 games.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— Green Wave (+2) beat USC 46-45 in Cotton Bowl LY.
— AAC non-conference underdogs are 10-18 ATS.


— Favorites covered three of last four Military Bowls.
— since 2014, ACC teams are 4-2 SU in this bowl.
— Last three years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU/ATS vs AAC opponents.


Duke’s Mayo Bowl (@ Charlotte, NC)
West Virginia (-6.5) vs North Carolina
West Virginia (8-4)
— WVU won four of its last five games.
— WVU ran ball for 226+ yards in five of last six games.
— In their losses, Mountaineers allowed 38-41-48-59 points.
— WVU is 8-0 when it allows less than 38 points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started two games last year.
— WVU is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— WVU is 11-9 ATS last 20 games as a favorite (3-3 TY).
— over is 6-1 in WVU’s last seven games.
— since 2016, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in bowl games
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS.


North Carolina (8-4)
— Tar Heels’ QB quit the team, to prepare for NFL Draft.
— Backup QB threw six passes this year, not ideal.
— UNC lost four of last six games, after a 6-0 start.
— UNC gave up 436+ TY in five of last six I-A games.
— Carolina gave up 31+ points in its last six I-A games.
— Tar Heels were underdog in only one game TY (L 31-20 at Clemson)
— Last five years, UNC is 7-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Last nine games, UNC is +8 in turnovers.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
— Mack Brown is 15-11 SU in bowls, 5-5 at Carolina.
— ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-11 ATS.


— These teams haven’t met since 2008.
— Underdogs won/covered 4 of last 5 Mayo Bowls.
— ACC teams lost the last four Mayo Bowls.
— since 2019, AAC teams are 12-7 ATS vs Big X opponents.


Holiday Bowl (@ San Diego)
Louisville (-7.5) vs USC
Louisville (10-3)
— Louisville lost its last two games, after a 10-1 start.
— Cardinals gave up 38 points in both losses (Pitt/Kentucky)
— Louisville has five wins by 7 or fewer points.
— Louisville scored 31+ points in four of last five games.
— Cardinals are 3-6 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cardinals are 4-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— In his career, Brohm is 32-36 ATS as a favorite.
— three of last four Louisville games went over the total.
— Coach Brohm is 4-1 SU in bowl games.
— ACC favorites are 13-10 ATS out of conference.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3 SU).


— Louisville was in ACC title game for first time this year.
— Louisville QB Plummer threw for 406 yards LY in 41-35 loss at USC, while he was playing for the Cal Bears.


USC (7-5)
— USC’s top two QB’s quit team; they’ve got only one scholarship QB.
— USC lost five of last six games, giving up 42.4 ppg in last eight games.
— Soph backup QB Miller is 23-32/309 passing this season.
— USC is 0-5 ATS TY in games with spread of 10 or less points.
— In his career, Riley is 5-2 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY)
— They’ve already fired the defensive coordinator
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, was favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— USC is 1-8 against spread in its last nine games.
— over is 7-2 in their last eight games; that was with Williams at QB.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Pac-12 underdogs are 3-3 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Did mention above that Plummer played against USC last year.
— Underdogs covered six of last eight Holiday Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 2-6 SU/0-8 ATS in last eight Holiday Bowls.
— since 2014, ACC teams are 11-4-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.


Texas Bowl (@ Houston)
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (-2.5)
Oklahoma State (9-4)
— Okla State won 7 of last 9 games, after a 2-2 start.
— OSU allowed 33-34-45-49 points in its four losses.
— Okla State was 7-3 in Big X games (average total, 60.3).
— Cowboys are 5-0 scoring 30+ points, 4-4 scoring less than 30.
— Cowboys are minus-6 in turnovers in losses, +10 in wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He came to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year
— OSU is 6-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— In his career, Gundy is 35-30-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.
— Big X underdogs are 4-3 ATS out of conference.


Texas A&M (7-5)
— A&M is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— A&M fired its coach in November.
— A&M is 0-3 TY in games decided by 11 or less points.
— Aggies are 7-3 when scoring 27+ points (0-2 score less than 27).
— Aggies are 7-1 giving up 22 or less points (0-4 giving up 26+).
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— 3rd-string soph QB is 27-42/410 passing (4 TD’s, no INTs)
— A&M is 2-3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— A&M is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.


— Before 2012, these teams were rivals in the Big X.
— Oklahoma State won four of last five series games (last meeting, 2019)
— Aggies (-4.5) beat OSU 24-21 in 2019 Texas Bowl.
— Underdogs covered four of last five Texas Bowls.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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December 26

Bowling Green @ Minnesota
Bowling Green
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Bowling Green is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Texas State @ Rice
Texas State
Texas State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Rice
Rice is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rice's last 6 games

Kansas @ Nevada-Las Vegas
Kansas
Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Nevada-Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games
Nevada-Las Vegas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games


December 27

Virginia Tech @ Tulane
Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games
Tulane is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

North Carolina @ West Virginia
North Carolina
North Carolina is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
North Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
West Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of West Virginia's last 7 games
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Louisville @ Southern California
Louisville
Louisville is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Southern California's last 20 games
Southern California is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas A&M's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma State
Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas A&M
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M


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[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Receiving yardage leaders in the NFL:
1,641— Tyreek Hill, Miami
1,424— CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
1,327— Puka Nacua, Rams
1,314— AJ Brown, Phil
1,281— Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
1,250— Amari Cooper, Clev

Quote of the Day
“Could we have done things better? I’m talking about myself and the coaching staff, with regards to, ‘All right, this is our worst-case scenario, now what?’ Absolutely, and it’s something that we will make sure that we do a heck of a lot better with in 2024.”
Jets coach Robert Saleh

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Lamar Jackson play his college football?

Monday’s quiz
The first time the Denver Broncos played in a Super Bowl, Craig Morton was their QB.

Sunday’s quiz
Giants’ rookie QB Tommy DeVito played college football at Syracuse, Illinois.

*********************************

Tuesday’s Den: Wrapping up Week 16 in the NFL​

Raiders 20, Chiefs 14
— Raiders scored two defensive TD’s 0:07 apart in second quarter.
— Not often an NFL team has 48 passing yards and wins, but the Raiders did.
— Last two games, Raiders have scored four defensive TD’s.
— Under is 11-4 in Raider games this season.
— Chiefs are 3-5 in their last eight games, after a 6-1 start.
— In those eight games, Chiefs are minus-9 in turnovers (5-14)
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 11 plays, minus-10 yards, three punts.
— Kansas City lost its last three home games SU.

Eagles 33, Giants 25
— Eagles led this game 20-3 at halftime.
— Giants scored defensive TD late in 3rd quarter to make score 20-18.
— Eagles’ last three drives: 24 plays, 172 yards, 13 points.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Giants changed QB’s at half; Tyrod Taylor was 7-16/133 in 2nd half.
— Eagles outgained Big Blue, 465-292.
— Giants were held under 300 TY in seven of last eight games.
— Giants are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 NFC East road games.

Lions 30, Vikings 24
— Lions clinch their first division title since 1993.
— Detroit led 17-14 at halftime.
— Lions’ first two drives of 2nd half: 27 plays, 163 yards, two TD’s.
— Detroit is 5-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.
— Vikings lost four of their last five games (the win was 3-0).
— Minnesota only ran the ball 11 times, for 17 yards.
— Mullens threw for 411 yards, but also threw four INT’s.
— Minnesota is 6-8 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)

Seahawks 20, Titans 17
— Seattle drove 53 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:57 left.
— Seattle in first half: 27 plays, 93 yards, 3 punts, 3 points.
— Seattle in second half: 34 plays, 180 yards, no punts, 17 points.
— Second week in row Seahawks scored game-winning TD in last 1:00.
— Titans lost six of their last eight games.
— Tennessee averaged only 3.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Titans are 4-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-8 scoring 17 or less.
— Under is 9-4 in Tennessee’s last 13 games.

Packers 33, Panthers 30
— Packers drove 61 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 0:22 left.
— Packers first 4 drives: 32 plays, 243 yards, no punts, 23 points.
— Packers in second half: 27 plays, 126 yards, 3 punts, 10 points.
— Green Bay outscored last five foes 82-42 in first half.
— Green Bay led 30-16 with 8:00 left in game.
— Panthers had TD drives of 63-70 yards, tied game with 4:15 left.
— Rookie QB Young was 23-35/312 passing, with two TD’s.
— Carolina’s 8.1 yards/pass attempt was by far their best this season.

Jets 30, Commanders 28
— Zuerlein kicked 54-yard FG with 0:10 left for the win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 10 plays, 68 yards, 17 points.
— Jets’ first three drives all started in Washington territory.
— Jets are 3-9 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Washington lost six in row, 11 of last 13 games (3-6 ATS last nine)
— QB Brissett was 10-13/100 passing off bench, with one TD pass.
— Washington is 3-1 giving up 17 or less points, 1-10 giving up more than 17.
— Last five games, Commanders allowed 35.8 ppg.

Falcons 29, Colts 10
— Colts drove 62 yards for a touchdown on their first drive.
— Rest of game, Colts ran 55 plays, gained 201 yards, scored 3 points.
— Colts are 0-6 giving up 29+ points, 8-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— Favorite covered the Colts’ last eight games.
— Atlanta scored two TD’s, kicked five FG’s on its drives.
— Falcons ran for 177 yards, outgained Colts 406-262.
— Atlanta scored 28-23-29 points in Heinicke’s three starts.
— Under is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.

Browns 36, Texans 22
— Flacco threw for 368 yards and three more TD’s.
— WR Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards and two TD’s.
— Cleveland won/covered six of last eight games.
— Browns are 6-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-5 allowing 24+.
— Houston’s first TD was a 98-yard kickoff return by Pierce.
— Texans in first half: 28 plays, 75 yards, 5 punts and an INT.
— Cleveland led the game 22-7 at halftime.
— Texans are 13-16-1 ATS in last 30 games as a home underdog.

Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12
— Bucs’ first six drives: 56 plays, 289 yards, 30 points.
— Tampa was 10-19 on third down, Jaguars were 3-9.
— Bucs won their last four games, scoring 21-29-34-30 points.
— Tampa Bay covered seven of its last nine games.
— Jacksonville lost its last four games, giving up 34-31-23-30 points.
— Jaguars turned ball over four times, ran for only 37 yards.
— Last five weeks, Jaguars ran ball for only 64.4 yards/game.
— QB Lawrence was already banged up; he hurt his shoulder today.

Bears 27, Cardinals 16
— Bears’ first four drives: 29 plays, 236 yards, 21 points.
— Chicago won/covered four of last six games.
— QB Fields threw for 170 yards, ran for 97 more.
— Bears converted 8-15 third down plays.
— Arizona is 2-10 SU/4-8 ATS in its last dozen games
— Arizona’s first three drives: 15 plays, 36 yards, three punts.
— Last two games, Cardinals are 24-49 on third down.
— Cardinals are 0-10 SU when they score less than 25 points.

Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20
— Miami drove 64 yards, kicked 29-yard FG with 0:02 left.
— Miami scored only one TD; Sanders kicked five FGs, three of them 50+ yards.
— Dolphins won six of last eight games SU, clinched a playoff spot.
— Last five games, Miami converted 34-70 third down plays.
— On their first series, Dallas lost a fumble on the 1-yard line.
— Cowboys have scored 37.2 ppg in wins, 15.8 ppg in losses.
— Cowboys are 6-10 ATS last 16 games as a road dog (0-4 TY).
— Dallas lost five of its last seven road games SU.

Patriots 26, Broncos 23
— New England kicked a 56-yard FG with 0:02 left for the win.
— Patriots scored two TD’s in a 0:06 span of the third quarter.
— Teams combined to convert 7-26 third down plays.
— Zappe is now 4-2 as an NFL starting QB.
— Denver trailed 23-7 in 4th quarter, tied game on TD drives of 83-88 yards.
— Patriots won/covered four of last five visits to Denver.
— Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite (1-5 TY).
— Last five weeks, Denver converted only 20-67 on third down.

Sunday’s college basketball:

Temple 55, Portland 54
Owls outscored Portland 15-6 over the final 6:31.
Temple was 10-18 on foul line, Pilots were 4-9.
Owls were +11 in turnovers (7-18)

UMass 87, Old Dominion 65
UMass shot 59.6% inside the arc.
Minutemen are grabbing 36.3% of their missed shots (#26)
Old Dominion lost five of its last six games.

TCU 65, Hawai’i 51
Rainbows shot 33.3% from floor, turned ball over 19 times.
TCU’s three subs all played 20+ minutes.
Horned Frogs improve their record to 10-2.

Nevada 72, Georgia Tech 64
Wolf Pack shoots 61% inside arc, wins the Diamond Head Classic.
Nevada starts four seniors, Georgia Tech doesn’t start any.
Wolf Pack is 12-1; they’ve got the #35 eFG% defense in country.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
SMU (-10) at Boston College (@ Fenway Park, Boston)
SMU (11-2)
— SMU won its last nine games (5-3 ATS), scoring 43.8 ppg.
— Mustangs scored 26+ points in its wins this year.
— SMU’s losses are to Big X teams: 28-11 at Oklahoma, 34-17 at TCU.
— under Lashlee, Mustangs are 6-3 ATS as a favorite, 4-2 on road.
— last five years, SMU is 42-18 SU/30-29 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Stone has competed 59.9% of passes, with 28 TD’s, 8 INT.
— five of SMU’s last seven games went over total.
— AAC non-conference favorites are 6-6 ATS this year.
— SMU was in the AAC title game this year, for first time.
— SMU lost its last three bowls, were favored in all three;
— Mustangs’ last bowl win was in 2012.


Boston College (6-6)
— Eagles lost their last three games, giving up 32.3 ppg.
— BC is 5-1 giving up less than 27 points, 1-5 allowing 27+.
— Eagles are 5-3 SU this year in one-score games.
— Last three games, BC averaged only 293.7 yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line; much improved.
— soph QB has completed 57.1% of passes (15 TD’s, 13 INT)
— under Hafley, BC is 15-16 ATS as an underdog (3-4 TY).
— over is 7-4 in their I-A games.
— ACC non-conference underdogs are 9-10 ATS this season.
— BC hasn’t played in a bowl since 2019 (one in ’21 was cancelled).
— Eagles lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2016.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— This is the 2nd Fenway Bowl; favorite won/covered the first one.
— Last three years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU/ATS vs AAC opponents.
— Boston in December; weather could be a factor.


Pinstripe Bowl (@ Bronx)
Miami vs Rutgers (-1)
Miami FL (7-5)
— Miami is 1-3 in last four games, after a 6-2 start.
— ‘canes are 7-2 when they score 28+, 0-3 if they don’t.
— Last three years, Miami is 19-17 SU, 14-21 ATS.
— Last two games, Miami gained 486-532 TY.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— starting QB Van Dyke bolted to Wisconsin.
— backup QB Williams is 44-71/470 passing (3 TDs, one INT)
— Miami is 2-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Miami is 3-0 ATS this year, in non-conference games.
— TY, ACC teams are 26-18 SU/22-22 ATS out of conference.
— over is 3-2 in their last five games.
— Miami hasn’t been to a bowl since 2020
— ‘canes lost their last four bowls; last bowl win? 2016.


Rutgers (6-6)
— Rutgers lost its last four games, all by 19+ points.
— Knights scored 11.5 ppg in those four losses.
— Rutgers is 0-5 when it scores less than 24 points.
— Rutgers threw for more than 180 yards in only one game TY.
— Knights are 0-6 when they allow more than 319 TY.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starters back on offensive line; new OL coach comes from NFL.
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— Scarlet Knights are 4-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Rutgers is 9-3 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Big 14 teams are 22-11 SU/14-19 ATS out of conference.
— Rutgers is 1-3 in its last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2014.
— This is only second bowl since 2014 for the Scarlet Knights.


— These teams haven’t met since 2003.
— since 2020, Big 14 teams are 14-8 ATS vs ACC opponents.
— Big 14 teams beat ACC squads in last six Pinstripe Bowls.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in this bowl last eight years.
— Miami lost this bowl 35-3 five years ago.
— December in New York; weather could be an issue.


Pop-Tarts Bowl (@ Orlando, FL)
NC State vs Kansas State (-2.5)
NC State (9-3)
— NC State won its last five games, after a 4-3 start.
— Last five games, Wolfpack is +9 in turnovers.
— NC State was held to 24-10-3 points in its losses.
— State is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia.
— This year, State is 6-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— This year, Wolfpack is 5-2 ATS as an underdog.
— six of their last nine games stayed under total.
— ACC underdogs are 9-11 ATS out of conference.
— NC State lost its last three bowls; their last bowl win: 2017.


Kansas State (8-4)
— K-State’s QB bolted to USC.
— Backup QB is 23-35/301 passing (3 TD’s, no INT)
— K-State split last four games, after a 6-2 start.
— Last seven games, K-State has a +13 turnover ratio.
— Wildcats are 7-0 when they allow less the 29 points.
— K-State is 8-1 scoring 31+ points (27-21-30-35 in losses)
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; all five starters are back
— Backup QB has run ball 44 times for 217 yards.
— K-State is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Klieman, K-State is 19-11 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 9-6 ATS in non-conference games.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games
— Big X non-conference favorites are 11-14 ATS
— Wildcats went to a bowl games three of last four years.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— ACC teams are 7-3 SU in last 10 Pop Tarts Bowls.
— Favorites covered this bowl six of last seven years.
— Last two years, Big X teams are 7-1-1 ATS vs ACC opponents.


Alamo Bowl (@ San Antonio)
Arizona (-2.5) vs Oklahoma
Arizona (9-3)
— From 2018-22, Wildcats were 15-38 SU; they’re 9-3 this year.
— Arizona won its last six games, scoring 38.8 ppg.
— Last two games, Wildcats threw ball for 852 yards.
— Wildcats are 8-0 when they give up less than 31 points.
— last four years, Arizona is minus-32 in turnovers (even TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— frosh QB has completed 73.6% of passes (23 TD’s, 5 INTs)
— Arizona is 5-0 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Arizona is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
— over is 3-0 in last three Arizona games.
— Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 14-7 ATS.
— Arizona hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2017.
— Wildcats are 3-2 in last five bowls (average total, 76.2)


Oklahoma (10-2)
— QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon.
— Sooners have impressive numbers, but w/o the QB, who knows?
— Oklahoma scored 53 ppg in its last three games.
— under Venables, Sooners are 1-0 ATS as an underdog.
— Oklahoma is +11 in turnovers this season.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— backup QB is 18-24/202 TY, with 2 TD’s, no INTs.
— Oklahoma allowed 20+ points in its last eight games.
— under Venables, Sooners are 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Big X non-conference underdogs are 4-3 ATS this season.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 14-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
— Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight Alamo Bowls.
— Oklahoma won this game 47-32 two years ago.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Southern Methodist @ Boston College
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Boston College
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston College's last 14 games
Boston College is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Rutgers @ Miami-FL
Rutgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games
Rutgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami-FL
Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 7 games

North Carolina State @ Kansas State
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas State
Kansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Arizona @ Oklahoma
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 26​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BGSU at MINN	02:00 PM	MINN -3.0 U 43.0	+500 +500
TXST at RICE	05:30 PM	RICE +3.5 O 59.5	+500 +500
KU at UNLV	09:00 PM	KU -10.5 U 67.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
12/26/2023	3-3-0	50.00%	-150	Detail
12/23/2023	6-8-0	42.86%	-1400	Detail
12/22/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/21/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/19/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
12/16/2023	5-6-1	45.83%	-800	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0..................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS...........................17 - 16 - 1................51.51%................- 2.00

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
New York Mets got a $101M tax bill for 2023, which is more $$ than these team’s entire payrolls:
$96,577,288- Cincinnati
$96,083,853- Kansas City
$93,378,663- Washington
$91,861,627- Cleveland
$79,354,272- Tampa Bay
$75,695,975- Pittsburgh
$71,061,047- Baltimore
$62,243,227- Oakland

Quote of the Day
“Every time you win, you’re reborn……..every time you lose, you die a little.”
George Allen

Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, who is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games?
(Hint: it isn’t Joe Flacco)

Tuesday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.

Monday’s quiz
The first time the Denver Broncos played in a Super Bowl, Craig Morton was their QB.

**********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..​

— When the Raiders won in Kansas City Monday, they didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter, the first NFL team to do that since the 2000 Bengals, who beat Denver 31-21 that day, when Cincy QB’s Akili Smith and Scott Mitchell were a combined 2-14/34 passing. That day, RB Corey Dillon ran the ball for 278 yards.

Monday, the Raiders scored two defensive TD’s in a 0:07 span of the third quarter, and that was enough to win.
— Baltimore Ravens are 12-3 this season, with seven wins by 14+ points; all seven of those teams came against teams with winning records.
No team in NFL history has had more than five regular season wins by 14+ points against teams with winning records.

— Chicago Bears signed kicker Cairo Santos for four years, $16M, which is little unusual. Lot of teams don’t like to pay kickers, especially teams with salary cap issues.

— Miami Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
Detroit Lions haven’t won one since 1991.
Since starting up again in 1999 after the original Cleveland Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens, Cleveland is 1-2 in playoff games, with the lone win in 2020.

— Florida State QB Jordan Travis is hurt, won’t be playing in the Semnoles’ bowl game vs Georgia; backup QB Tate Rodemaker is now in the transfer portal, which leaves #3 QB Brock Glenn, a freshman who threw for 55 yards in the Seminoles’ 16-6 win over Louisville in the ACC Championship game.
Five other Seminoles have also hit the transfer portal, not counting Travis, who is also expected to skip town next spring.

— In the last eight Holiday Bowls, Pac-12 teams are 0-8 against the spread.

— In the last six Pinstripe Bowls, Big 14 teams are 6-0 against ACC opponents.

— Arizona Wildcats have won six games in a row, they’re 9-3 and are favored over Oklahoma in their bowl game. Quite a turnaround led by coach Jedd Fisch; from 2018-22, the Wildcats were 14-38.

— Word of the Day: Bibliophile- someone who loves reading books.

— I’m amused that if I leave my house without my phone, my car will tell me about a half-mile down the road, then I turn around and go get my phone.
It would be better if a message came up on my dashboard: “Hey stupid, you forgot your phone!!!”

— Seattle Mariners signed DH/C Mitch Garver for two years, $24M; Garver hit 19 homers and had an .870 OPS for Texas last year- he also won a World Series ring.

— Reliever Joe Kelly wore #17 for the Dodgers last year; his wife suggested that he offer #17 to free agent star Shohei Ohtani. After Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, a Porsche was delivered to the Kelly’s home, for Mrs Kelly, from Ohtani.

— Charlotte Hornets are the only NBA team that has never played on Christmas Day.

— Nets 118, Pistons 112
Detroit loses its 27th consecutive game.
Pistons starters were combined +34; subs were minus-64
Detroit coach Monty Williams makes $13.1M/year, 7th-most of any pro coach in country.

— Minnesota 30, Bowling Green 24
Gophers win their 7th straight bowl game.
Bowling Green led 10-9 at halftime.
RB Taylor ran ball 35 times for 209 yards and a TD.
Gophers ran for 255 yards, threw for only 26.

— Texas State 45, Rice 21
This was Texas State’s first-ever bowl game.
Bobcats outscored Rice 21-0 in second half.
Texas State outgained Rice, 300-197.
Bobcats had good balance; 148 rushing yards, 152 passing.

— Kansas 49, UNLV 36
Kansas in first half: 31 plays, 333 yards, 28 points.
Jayhawks averaged 15.4 yards/pass attempt.
Bean was 19-28/449 passing, with 6 TD’s, 3 INTs.
This was UNLV’s first bowl since 2013.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 29

Gator Bowl (@ Jacksonville)
Clemson (-4) vs Kentucky
Clemson (8-4)
— Clemson won its last four games, after a 4-4 start.
— Tigers are 8-0 giving up 23 or less points, 0-4 if they allow 24+
— Clemson is 9-6 SU in last 15 games overall.
— Last four games, Tigers are +6 in turnovers.
— Clemson held 3 of last 5 opponents under 260 total yards.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB has completed 63% of passes, with 19 TD’s, 8 INTs
— Tigers are 5-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Clemson is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Tigers are 11-16 ATS in last 27 non-conference games.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Clemson games.
— ACC non-conference favorites are 13-11 ATS
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.


Kentucky (7-5)
— Kentucky lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Wildcats are 7-1 giving up 31 or fewer points, 0-4 giving up 33+.
— Kentucky is 1-5 scoring less than 28 points.
— Kentucky was held under 300 TY in six of last seven games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB split two games vs Clemson while at NC State.
— Wildcats are 1-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
— in his career, Stoops is 30-33-2 ATS as an underdog
— Kentucky is 14-3 ATS in last 17 non-SEC games.
— Seven of last nine Kentucky games went over the total.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).
— This year, SEC underdogs are 2-4 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2009.
— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Gator Bowls.
— SEC teams are 6-2 SU in their last eight Gator Bowls.
— This year, ACC teams are 7-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Sun Bowl (@ El Paso)
Oregon State vs Notre Dame (-6)
Oregon State (8-4)
— Oregon State’s starting QB, coach have both left town.
— Beavers’ ex-coach is an OSU alum; big blow.
— Pac-12 has dissolved; OSU’s program is in limbo.
— Beavers are 0-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— This is only 2nd time this year Beavers are an underdog.
— under Smith, Beavers were 21-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU is 11-6 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
— Beavers are 6-0 when they allow less than 22 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB Gulbranson started 8 games last year.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).


Notre Dame (9-3)
— Notre Dame’s QB quit the team, won’t play in bowl.
— backup QB is 19-25/272 passing (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Notre Dame won four of its last five games SU.
— Irish scored 14-20-23 points in losses, 41+ in eight of nine wins.
— Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS as a favorite this year.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— First career start for freshman backup QB.
— This year, Irish are 4-2-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Notre Dame is +11 in turnovers in its wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Last five Notre Dame games went over the total.
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).


— These teams haven’t met since 2004.
— Underdogs covered three of last four Sun Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-3 SU in last nine Sun Bowls.


Liberty Bowl
Iowa State (-10) @ Memphis State
Iowa State (7-5)
— Cyclones won five of last seven games, after a 2-3 start.
— ISU is 7-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t.
— Cyclones are 7-5, have a +9 turnover ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is completing 63.5% of passes (20 TD’s/8 INTs).
— under Campbell, ISU is 10-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— over is 4-1 in their last five road games.
— ISU is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games non-conference games.
— This year, Big X non-conference road favorites are 2-6 ATS.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).


Memphis (9-3)
— Tigers won five of last six games, scoring 45.3 ppg.
— Tigers are 9-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-2 if they don’t/
— Three Memphis losses this year were by 7-10-4 points.
— Memphis allowed 31+ points in seven of last nine games.
— Last efive games, Memphis allowed 494.8 yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line- 3 starters are back.
— junior QB has completed 66.4% of passes (28 TDs, 9 INTs)
— Memphis is 9-4 ATS last 13 games as home underdogs.
— Tigers are 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Nine of their last ten games went over the total.
— This year, AAC non-conference home underdogs are 2-6 ATS.
— Tigers have been bowl eligible nine years in row (’21 bowl cancelled)
— Favorites covered Memphis’ last three bowl games.


— These teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven Liberty Bowls.
— Big X teams won four of last six Liberty Bowls SU.
— since 2019, AAC teams are 12-7 ATS vs Big X opponents.


Cotton Bowl (@ Arlington, TX)
Missouri vs Ohio State (-1)
Missouri (10-2)
— Mizzou is 9-2 vs I-A teams, losing to LSU/Georgia.
— Mizzou gave up 49-30 points in the two losses.
— Mizzou is 9-0 when it gives up less than 30 points.
— Tigers scored 30+ points in nine of their last ten games.
— Last three games, Mizzou is +9 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB completed 66.7% of passes, with 20 TD’s, 5 INTs.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-9 ATS in non-SEC games.
— seven of last 10 Mizzou games went over the total.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.


Ohio State (11-1)
— QB McCord has bolted to Syracuse.
— backup QB Brown is 12-22/197 passing (2 TD’s, one INT)
— Ohio State was unbeaten until they lost 30-24 at Michigan.
— Buckeyes have only 2 wins (Notre Dame/Penn St) by less than 14 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— first career start for freshman backup QB.
— Ohio State is 4-5-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
— Under is 7-2 in Ohio State’s last nine games.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.


— These teams haven’t met since 1998.
— Favorites are 7-1 ATS in last eight Cotton Bowls.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clemson @ Kentucky
Clemson
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kentucky
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kentucky's last 9 games
Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Oregon State @ Notre Dame
Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games
Oregon State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Notre Dame
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 5 games
Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Memphis @ Iowa State
Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Iowa State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Missouri @ Ohio State
Missouri
Missouri is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Missouri is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Ohio State
Ohio State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Ohio State's last 9 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

 

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 27​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
VT at TULN	02:00 PM	TULN +10.5 U 43.5	+500 +500
UNC at WVU	05:30 PM	WVU -6.0 U 60.0	+500 +500
LOU at USC	08:00 PM	LOU -6.5 O 58.0	+500 +500
TAM at OKST	09:00 PM	OKST -3.0 O 55.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
12/27/2023	4-4-0	50.00%	-200	Detail
12/26/2023	3-3-0	50.00%	-150	Detail
12/23/2023	6-8-0	42.86%	-1400	Detail
12/22/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/21/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/19/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
12/16/2023	5-6-1	45.83%	-800	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS...........................21 - 20 - 1................51.21%................- 4.00

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in passing yards:
4,214— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
4,050— Brock Purdy, SF
3,984— Jared Goff, Det
3,938— Patrick Mahomes, KC
3,892— Dak Prescott, Dal
3,778— Josh Allen, Buff

Quote of the Day
“Nothing’s really changed except my bank account. I feel really good. I think it’s a great partnership. It’s what the team needed on the court and off. I’ll still be overseeing the basketball side of it……..”
Mark Cuban, who sold the Dallas Mavericks this week

Thursday’s quiz
Who coached the Jets when they won their only Super Bowl?

Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, Warren Moon is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games.

Tuesday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.

**********************************

Thursday’s Den: Football trends, and other stuff……..​

— NFL divisional trends………

NFC East
Divisional home favorites 4-2 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 7-9 ATS
Non-divisional road favorites 5-4 ATS

NFC North
Divisional home teams 1-8 ATS (0-4 F, 1-3 U)
Non-divisional home favorites 7-4 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 5-2 ATS

NFC South
Underdogs 6-3 ATS in divisional games.
Non-divisional home favorites 3-6 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 3-6 ATS

NFC West
Divisional home underdogs 0-3-1 ATS
Non-divisional home underdogs 5-2 ATS
Non-divisional road teams 12-8-1 ATS

AFC East
Divisional favorites 7-2 ATS, 4-0 at home
Non-divisional home favorites 6-8 ATS
Non-divisional underdogs 7-13-1 ATS

AFC North
Divisional favorites 3-7 ATS, 1-4 on road
Non-divisional home favorites 13-6 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3-1 ATS

AFC South
Divisional road teams 6-3 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 8-6 ATS
Non-divisional road underdogs 6-7 ATS

AFC West
Divisional home favorites 4-3 ATS
Non-divisional home favorites 6-8 ATS
Non-divisional road teams 8-12 ATS

— starting QB decisions for this week:
Washington will start Jacoby Brissett (18-30 as a starter) vs San Francisco
Giants will start Tyrod Taylor (27-28-1 as a starter) against the Rams
Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham (0-2 as a starter) against the Chargers.

— So Denver is benching Russell Wilson for the last two games; are they trying to get out of his contract?
Wilson is 35; he is currently signed through 2028, but he’s only guaranteed money through 2024. His entire 2025 salary ($37M) is guaranteed if he is still on the Broncos’ roster at the start of the next league year (March 17, 2024).
Put it this way; Denver’s options (trades) remain open, as long as Wilson stays healthy, which is probably why they’re sitting him out the last two games, since their playoff chances for this year are almost nil.

— Movie of the Day- One More Time (2015)- An aging New York City crooner plots his comeback. Christopher Walken plays the singer, Amber Heard is one of his daughters, Oliver Platt is his manager.

— current head coaches/managers who played in the big leagues:
19 of 30 major league managers played in the majors.
8 of 32 NFL head coaches played in the NFL
12 of 30 NBA head coaches played in the NBA.

— USC 42, Louisville 28
3rd-string QB Moss threw for 372 yards, 6 TD’s in his first college start.
First two drives, Trojans punted/missed FG.
On their next seven drives, they scored six touchdowns.
For the game, USC averaged 8.6 yards per play.

— Virginia Tech 41, Tulane 20
Hokies led 17-10 at halftime.
Tulane’s only first half touchdown was scored by their defense.
Tech was 7-14 on third down, Tulane 2-10 on a rainy day.
Hokies ran ball 50 times for 362 yards, 7.2 yards/carry.

— West Virginia 30, North Carolina 10
West Virginia threw a 75-yard TD pass on first play of the game.
West Virginia ran for 164 yards, were +2 in turnovers.
WVU outscored the Tar Heels 13-0 in second half.
Mountaineers won five of last six games, after a 4-3 start.

— Oklahoma State 31, Texas A&M 23
Cowboys led 24-6 at halftime, gaining 345 yards.
QB Bowman threw for 402 yards, two TD’s.
Oklahoma State was 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Texas A&M finishes season 7-6.

— When Kansas beat UNLV 49-36 Tuesday night, they did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before; Jayhawks scored 49 points alright, averaging 16 yards/pass attempt, but they also had 18 penalties for 216 yards.
216 penalty yards in one game; not sure I’ve seen that before.

— Tennessee QB Joe Milton isn’t playing in the Vols’ bowl game: freshman Nico Iamaleava will get his first college start, against the staunch Iowa defense.

— NBA’s Atlanta Hawks are 7-30 against the spread this year, the worst ATS start by any NBA team in the last thirty years.

— Denver Nuggets F Aaron Gordon needed 21 stitches after his face and right (shooting) hand were cut while being bitten by a family dog on Christmas. Gordon is averaging 13.6 points and 6.9 rebounds this season.

— Hitting in the major leagues is harder than it used to be, in large part because hitters don’t see pitchers as many times as they used to.
Victor Martinez played 16 years in the major leagues, hit .295 with an .815 OPS; the most times he faced one pitcher? He faced James Shields 62 times in his career. There are three pitchers that he faced 50+ times, not a lot.
Joe Torre played 18 years in the major leagues, hit .297 with an .817 OPS; he faced 15 different pitchers a minimum of 75 times each. You see the same pitcher over and over, hitting is easier.

— How college football conferences are doing in the bowls:

AAC- 2-2 in bowls; all four games were decided by 18+ points.

ACC- 3-3 SU in bowls; underdogs covered four of the six games.

Big 14- 2-0 SU/ATS in first two bowls, winning 14-7/30-24.

Big X- 4-1 SU/ATS in first five bowls, scoring 32.2 ppg.

C-USA- 2-1 SU/ATS in first three bowls, with both wins in OT.

MAC- 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in first five bowls- they were underdog in all five.

Mountain West- 2-4 SU/ATS in first six bowls (over 4-2).

Pac-12- 2-2 SU/ATS in first four bowls (over 2-2).

SEC- Texas A&M’s 31-23 (-2.5) loss is only SEC bowl so far.

Sun Belt- They had 12 bowls, the most of any league:
Sun Belt teams went 1-7 SU/0-8 ATS in first eight bowls.
Sun Belt teams won/covered their last four bowls.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 30

Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Ole Miss vs Penn State (-4.5)
Ole Miss (10-2)
— Ole Miss won seven of its last eight games, scoring 31.3 ppg
— Rebels were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
— Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 6-7 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— TY, Ole Miss is 2-1-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— Rebels are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Ole Miss hasn’t had a game TY with a negative TO ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB has completed 65.2% of passes (20 TD’s, 5 INTs)
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 9-5 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Kiffin is 2-4 SU in bowls.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.


Penn State (10-2)
— Penn State scored 27+ points in all its wins.
— PSU lost 20-12 at Ohio State, 24-15 to Michigan.
— TY, Penn State is 1-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— last three years, Penn State is +35 in turnovers (+18 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 61.3% of passes, with 23 TD’s, one INT.
— under Franklin, PSU is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
— TY, Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS as a favorite.
— PSU is 10-4 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
— Last three Penn State games stayed under the total.
— In his career, Franklin is 6-5 in bowls.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Last six years, Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight Peach Bowls.
— SEC teams are 5-1 in last six Peach Bowl appearances.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Maryland vs Auburn (-7)
Maryland (7-5)
— Maryland QB Tagevailoa chose not to play in this game.
— Soph backup QB Edwards has thrown 10 passes this season.
— Terps lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Maryland is 6-0 when they score 31+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— This year, Terps are 3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 11-18 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— in his career, Locksley is 22-34 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Maryland games.
— This year, Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 2-5 ATS.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Locksley is 2-0 in bowl games.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.


Auburn (6-6)
— Auburn lost six of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Auburn lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State LW, a bad loss.
— Auburn allowed 15 or less points in wins, 27+ in losses.
— Last four years, Auburn is 23-25 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 46-39-1 ATS as a favorite (3-2 TY).
— Auburn is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Tigers are 2-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— In his career, Freeze is 6-1 SU in bowl games.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-4 ATS in last nine Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams lost four of last five appearances in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Orange Bowl (@ Miami)
Georgia (-19) vs Florida State
Georgia (12-1)
— Georgia had won its last 29 games before losing SEC title game.
— Georgia is 4-7-1 against spread this season.
— Only 3 of their 12 wins were by less than 10 points.
— Dawgs are 3-6-1 ATS as a double digit favorite this year.
— Last 3 games, Auburn is minus-4 in turnovers.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB for Georgia; he is completing 72.4%, with 22 TD’s, 6 INTs.
— Georgia is 2-6 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
— four of Georgia’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.


Florida State (13-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out, backup QB quit; not ideal.
— #3 QB Glenn is 10-25/90 passing this season.
— Four other prominent Seminoles opted out of this game.
— Seminoles allowed 12 ppg in their last four I-A games.
— Last four I-A games, FSU is +5 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— Seminoles are 11-10-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
— in his career, Norvell is 12-13-2 ATS as an underdog.
— under Norvell, FSU is 7-5-1 ATS in non-league games.
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This year, ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-10 ATS
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— Does FSU have enough quality depth to compete here?


— These teams haven’t met since 2002.
— Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last ten Orange Bowls.
— SEC teams won last five Orange Bowls (3-2 ATS)
— This year, ACC teams are 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Arizona Bowl (@ Tucson)
Toledo vs Wyoming (-3.5)
Toledo (11-2)
— Toledo lost opener, MAC title game; went 11-0 in between
— Toledo covered four of its last six games.
— last five games, Toledo scored 31.6 ppg.
— four of their eight MAC wins were by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— Toledo is 2-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— under Candle, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Rockets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.
— MAC underdogs are 16-14 ATS out of conference.


Wyoming (8-4)
— Coach Bohl (10 years @ Wyoming) is retiring after this game.
— Wyoming won its last two games by a combined 84-15.
— Cowboys gave up 31-34-32-34 points in their losses.
— Wyoming is 7-0 when they give up 26 or fewer points.
— Last nine games, Cowboys have a +10 turnover ratio.
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Wyoming is 3-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cowboys are 2-1-1 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Mountain West non-conference favorites are 4-4 ATS this year.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games.


— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
— MW teams split last six Arizona Bowls; MAC teams won last two.
— Since 2016, favorites are 3-2 in this bowl.
— Since 2021, MW teams are 8-5 SU/8-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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December 30

Mississippi @ Penn State
Mississippi
Mississippi is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 7 games
Penn State
Penn State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Penn State is 15-3-1 ATS in its last 19 games

Auburn @ Maryland
Auburn
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Auburn is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Maryland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games
Maryland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

Georgia @ Florida State
Georgia
Georgia is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia's last 5 games
Florida State
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games

Toledo @ Wyoming
Toledo
Toledo is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 7 games
Wyoming
Wyoming is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Wyoming is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 28​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
RUTG at MIA	02:15 PM	RUTG -2.5 U 41.5	+500 +500
NCST at KSU	05:45 PM	KSU -3.0 O 47.5	+500 +500
ARIZ at OKLA	09:15 PM	OKLA +2.0 O 59.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
12/28/2023	3-3-0	50.00%	-150	Detail
12/27/2023	4-4-0	50.00%	-200	Detail
12/26/2023	3-3-0	50.00%	-150	Detail
12/23/2023	6-8-0	42.86%	-1400	Detail
12/22/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/21/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/19/2023	2-0-0	100.00%	+1000	Detail
12/16/2023	5-6-1	45.83%	-800	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/28/2023.......................3 - 3......................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/27/2023.......................4 - 4......................50.00%..............- 2.00
12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0.................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS...........................24 - 23 - 1................51.06%................- 5.50