NBA Playoffs Second-Round Betting Trends Steve Makinen

[carlitosway]

​

NBA Playoffs Second-Round Betting Trends​

The NBA Playoffs first round was littered with blowouts, key players missing games due to injury, and otherwise, very little drama to keep things interesting. It’s not unusual and much of the reason that many people clamor for shrinking the playoff field. From a betting perspective, if you’ve been an Under bettor on totals, you’re probably loving the postseason so far, as including the play-in games, there have been six more Unders than Overs in games through Wednesday, 5/1. This coming despite totals being about nine points lower than that of the regular season. Hopefully, you were able to catch my first-round betting article from a couple of weeks ago, as many of the key trends and systems I shared continued to thrive in 2024. With that in mind, I’m now here to present the information you’re going to want to consider as we move on to the NBA Playoffs second-round betting trends.
Thankfully, the competitiveness tends to ramp up in parallel with the stakes, and when the second round tips off this weekend, it should present four fairly intriguing matchups. In fact, all four of last year’s second-round series went at least six games.


Hopefully, the stuff you’re about to read also pays off handsomely. Enjoy the analysis and the action and be sure to check back in two or three weeks as I will break down the conference championship trends at that time.
Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that the percentage of series upsets in the second round is actually much higher than the first. If you recall, only 17 out of 80 lower seeded teams, or 21.3% were able to pull of upsets in the first round. In the second round, it was 13 out of 40, or 32.6%, which is over 1.5 times the amount. Seven teams have been seeded worse than third to pull off this feat, most recently, the Heat (over New York) and the Lakers (over Golden State) last year. It has now happened five times in the last three years, with three victims being #1 seeds. In all, there have been five #1 seeds to lose a series in this round in the last six playoff seasons. Does that leave Boston or Oklahoma City vulnerable here? In a word, yes.

Series Trends​

As I reasoned in the first-round article from a few weeks back, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis for the NBA Playoffs. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly can boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.
• There have been 14 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that last five games or less, only two of which were upsets. In all but one of those 20 series, the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.
• There have been 19 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower-seed winning eight times (53 individual wins).
• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total in +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.
• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.
• There is an advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second-round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.
• It hasn’t been a real detriment to see a first-round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first-round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.
• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse-seeded team had a better second-half regular season record since they have only won once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.
• Similarly, worse-seeded teams with better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends​

• It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points are the benchmark for second-round success. Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round NBA playoff game have gone 102-24 SU and 97-28-1 ATS (77.6%).
• Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark. Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 21-99 SU and 26-93-1 ATS (21.8%) over the last seven seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range​

• Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 10-5 SU but just 2-13 ATS (13.3%) since 2016. This is in direct contrast to the first-round numbers we saw a few weeks ago. All other home favorites are 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%) in that span.
• Big road favorites win and cover. Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second-round road favorites of five points or more are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS (88.9%). Interestingly, there hasn’t been one of these since 2018!
• Second-round smaller road favorites (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 15-25 SU and 13-27 ATS (32.5%) since 2013.
• The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 35-17-1 (67.3%!), including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher. In that same span, totals of 227 or less are 44-38 UNDER (53.7%).

Last Game Trends​

• Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 6-21 SU and 7-20 ATS (25.9%) in the follow-up contests in their last 27 playoff tries.
• Teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 19-8 ATS (70.4%) since 2021.
• Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just an 8-13 SU and 7-14 ATS (33.3%) record over the last three postseasons.
• There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10-points or fewer, the follow up second round same series game is 28-15-1 Under (65.1%) the total in the L48.
• Close games have a galvanizing effect for road teams – Teams involved in close games decided by three points or less, win or lose, bounce back well when playing on the road in the follow-up game. In that scenario, these teams are on a 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) run.
• Second-round teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 6-9 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) in the follow-up contest. The last nine of those games have also gone Under the total (100%).
• Poor three-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 18-26-1 ATS (40.9%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.

Trends by Game Number​

• Home teams have held the edge in Game One of the second-round series since 2016, going 18-10 SU and 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%). However, they were 1-3 SU and ATS in 2023. There have only been two road favorites during that span.
• Seventeen of the last 28 (60.7%) non-neutral Game Ones of the second-round NBA playoffs have gone Over the total.
• The best Game One favorites have been the biggest favorites, as those laying six points or more are on a 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS (63.6%) surge.
• Upsets occur in Game One with lines of -5.5 or less – favorites of 5.5-points or less are on a 7-18 SU and 4-20-1 ATS (16.7%) skid.
• Home teams have swept the last three years of Game 2 second-round action, going 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS (91.7%).
• Smaller home favorites get it done in Game Two. Home favorites of seven points or less have gone 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) in their last 20 chances.
• Home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in the last eight Game Threes, stopping a skid of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons.
• Change of venue has changed the scoring trend recently, with more Game Twos going Over than not; the scoring pace slows for Game Threes as they are 16-8 Under (66.7%) in the last 24.
• In the last 15 Game Threes featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 12 have gone Under the total (80%).
• Oddsmakers pave the road for Game Four profits – An interesting trend that has developed over the last eight playoff seasons finds that second-round Game Four favorites are on a surge of 26-9 SU and 22-12-1 ATS (64.7%).
• Game Three winners have most often become Game Four winners as well, as they are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in their last 18 tries.
• Teams up in the series are just 14-19 SU and 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) in their last 33 Game Four tries.
• Expect Game Fives to be tight – Favorites are 28-11 SU but just 18-21 ATS (46.2%) since 2013. In games with lines of 5.5 points or more, they are just 11-16 ATS (40.7%).
• Teams that lost big in Game Four, by seven points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 14-9 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in their last 23 tries.
• Game Sixes have swung towards underdogs, 15-10 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) since 2014.
• Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) Game Sixes that have been played the last three playoff seasons have gone Under the total
• Favorites have been far from automatic lately in Game Sevens, going just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS (40%) in their last 10 tries. Boston did beat Philadelphia handily last year, however.
• Winning Game 6 has provided a good boost for Game Seven, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in their last 10 chances.
• Not surprisingly, Unders are the wager of choice in Game Sevens lately, 8-4 in the last 12 (66.7%).

Trends by Seed Number​

• After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 44-33 SU and 38-38-1 ATS (50%) in their last 77 second-round NBA playoff games.
• #1 seeds are on a 9-1 SU and ATS (90%) at home in the last two seasons in the second round, slowing a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
• #1 seeds have capitalized on momentum well going 19-11 SU and ATS (63.3%) when coming off a same series win.
• #1 seeds are on a 5-14 SU and 7-12 ATS (36.8%) skid as underdogs in the second round.
• #2 seeds have been very competitive in the underdog role in the second round, going 21-16 SU and 26-11 ATS (70.3%) in that role since 2015.
• #2 seeds have not closed out opponents well in the second round, going just 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) when given that chance since 2018.
• #3 seeds have meant Unders in second-round games of late, 31-16-1 (66%) in the last 48.
• Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 10 of their last 35 games while going 11-24 ATS (31.4%).
• #3 seeds are on a phenomenal second-round run of 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) when trying to stave off elimination in a series.
• Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 10-31 SU and 13-27-1 ATS (32.5%) as such since 2015.
• The last 14 #4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second-round series are just 5-9 SU and ATS (35.7%).
• Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 10-22 SU and ATS (31.3%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
• Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in the second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 14-30 SU and 21-23 ATS (47.7%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
• First-round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded fifth or lower have gone 3-31 SU and 13-21 ATS (38.2%) when playing as dogs of six points or more. Included is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
• Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second-round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 8-20 SU and 10-18 ATS (35.7%) when coming off a same-series victory since 2013.

Trends by Teams Closing Out Series or Facing Elimination​

• Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (9-7 ATS in the last 16) as compared to at home (7-11 ATS in the last 18).
• There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 18-9 SU but just 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) since 2013 (6-7 SU in the last 13).
• Teams looking to close out a series in Game Six have struggled, going just 8-11 SU and ATS (42.1%) in their last 19 opportunities, including 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) as chalk.