Zapsterz NBA Totalz

[GLJJNOVA]

Thats right Zap, no need to force a Biggie. So many games left, they will come.
There's a general theory that lines tighten later in the season. Do you agree with that? If so, do you think the same is true with totals. Have you ever looked at that, or is that already factored into your system?

Thanks
Gary

PS: I'll give you 100-1 on your prop, lol.

 

[Zapster]

Hey Gary....I bet you would not have been offering 100-1 with 5 mintes left in the second and the score 0-0

Well the prop lost, but I definately got my money's worth.....and I still say that if that fumble didn't happen, the first half ends up with no TD's and who knows from there !!

But f*ck football anyway !! That's not why we're here.

The GOOD thing that happened yesterday was the 1-0 start for February. Hopefully that keeps going today with:

Portland OVER 192 (4 Units)

I was surprised to get only one minimum play out of all those games, but that is where the numbers lie. I don't think I'd say the numbers are necessarily "tightening up." But then again I do seem to have fewer plays these days and no biggies, so who knows.

YTD 132-122 - Plus 73.4 Units - 51.96% Winners

 

[tatehill2000]

This is typical Cycles,,,, the last month of Jan was VERY difficult for all,,, sooo lets watch the tides turn our way,,,,,

good luck to all,,, will be capping again starting tomorrow,,,
see ya then ZAP,,,
Good luck,,,
tater

 

[SINGURU]

GOOD PICK , MY FRIENDS...

EMAIL ME SOMETIMES...

 

[Kiet]

great hit Zapsterz.

 

[Zapster]

Thanks guys.....only having one pick per day was borderline boring, but hitting both times is a sure cure for boredom.....borderline or otherwise.

Today, on the other hand, will NOT be boring as I have 4 games I regard as small to medium plays. Still no biggies....oh well.

YTD 133-122 - Plus 77.4 Units - 52.16% Winners

 

[Zapster]

Here are tonight's playzz....:

TORONTO UNDER 173 (4 Units)
INDIANA UNDER 180.5 (7 Units)
GOLDEN STATE OVER 205.5 (5 Units)
SEATTLE OVER 211.5 (4 Units)

Thank's for stoppin' by

 

[Zapster]

Not exactly jumping up and down after last night's 1-2-1 performance. Both losses looked like wins down the stretch and the tie looked like a sure loser, so luck was all over the place.

To make it worse, I went over all of my old Excell sheets and found that my running total went awry somewhere and I have 2 more losses than I thought YTD. So here is the updated record....as not pretty as it is....:

YTD 134-126 - Plus 55 Units - 51.54% Winners

It will take a really good run to get back to last year's 54.82% mark, but I am determined and am working harder than ever on these plays.

At the very least I want to see the Units top the +200 mark by playoff time.

Tonight I have two of them:

MIAMI UNDER 169 (5 Units)
CHICAGO UNDER 181 (7 Units)

 

[Zapster]

Tonight I like one beyond the numbers:

LAKERZZ UNDER 181 (10 Units)

I think AI is going to find out why they call GP "The Glove."

Game calculates as a 10, but it is the closest thing to a "biggie" I have seen in over a week.

Tater says he likes this one a lot too, so that adds mucho confidence.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

Never in doubt Zap, nice call.

Congrats
Gary

 

[SINGURU]

ZAPSTER AND TATEHILL HAVE MAIL; SINGURU'S

BESTS ARE ON THE WAY....

 

[Zapster]

Thanks Gary....it was nice to be able to relax through a game for once. The other game last night (Seattle-San Antonio) must have spawned a few grey hairs last night on whoever was on that one !!

Sing....I got your mail....will be in touch today.

Tonight's card look FAT !! Right now I have 6 games I like, three of them I like a LOT....and one of those looks like a 20 Unit "BIGGIE" (still with us Brubaker ??)

I will get them up here later. For now I just want to recap my record, including all of the final corrections:

YTD 136-127 - Plus 68.3 Units - 51.71% Winners

My bigger plays (15 & 20 Units) are now.....:

YTD 38-29 - 56.7% Winners

 

[Zapster]

Ok....here are tonight's playzz......:

CLIPPERS OVER 200.5 (7 Units)
ATLANTA UNDER 189.5 (4 Units)
MILWAUKEE UNDER 198 (4 Units)
CLEVELAND OVER 192.5 (4 Units)
CHICAGO UNDER 179.5 (10 Units)
DENVER OVER 199 (20 Units)

Denver OVER is the first 20 Unit play I have posted since 1/24. I am 14-10 on those YTD so I'm hoping to hit this and get to the elusive 60% threshhold for those particular playzz. I'm having house guests and won't be able to watch, so I'm hoping some of you can fill the void (translation: I won't be screaming at my TV like a maniac so root it in for me)

 

[Zapster]

NOT happy about losing yesterday's "biggie." It put a damper on a 4-2 day. Hit the Miami-Knicks UNDER early today for 5 Units. Rx was down so it couldn't be posted here but I had it posted in a couple of other places on the 'net, way before tipoff. February is off to a 10-5 start. I hope to keep it going. Here are tonight's pix:

BOSTON UNDER 187.5 (5 Units)
HOUSTON UNDER 172 (4 Units)
WASHINGTON OVER 196 (10 Units)
UTAH UNDER 181.5 (4 Units)

 

[Zapster]

Frustrating 2-3 day yesterday brings my record to....:

YTD 142-132 - Plus 55 Units - 51.82% Winners

Big card today.....here are the two early games. More to come:

LAKERZZ UNDER 201.5 (4 Units)
MIAMI UNDER 168.5 (10 Units)

 

[Zapster]

Here is the rest of it. I forgot to post in time for the Seattle game and with 86 in the first half it doesn't look good but I still want to post it here for documentation purposes.

Anyway.............:

SEATTLE OVER 195.5 (7 Units)
CLIPPERZZ UNDER 196 (7 Units)
PHILADELPHIA UNDER 176 (7 Units)
DENVER OVER 211 (4 Units)

Best of Luck !!

 

[Zapster]

It really comes down to this:

When NBA teams play "true to form," my formula rocks. When play is haphazard, I become a big fat fade. Something has been different since New Year's. Case in point....I was in first place in the Rx/Bodog contest at year end and have now dropped to a tie for 24th....highlighted by an 0-6 performance this past weekend.

As I said in the other thread, I used to refer to playing NBA totals as "harvesting cash." Since New Year's it has been the opposite.

I can only hope things normalize. I did hit a pretty bad bump for a stretch last season and things got righted...especially during the playoffs...so I am going to hold steadfast and continue calculating the way I have been.

And one thing you will NOT see me do is increase the number of plays or the unit size as a way of "chasing." I know people play these picks and I while I can't guarantee the results of the plays, I *can* guarantee that I won't let my ego get in the way of responsble recommendations.

ANY-wayyyy.....my 1-5 day yesterday leaves my record at........:

YTD 143-137 - Plus 20.5 Units - 51.07% Winners

I do have one play for today....and it is also an "agreed play" with Tater:

Memphis OVER 198 (7 Units)

As I said in the other thread "A journey of 1,000 miles begins with a single step."

Let's see if we can start marchin' tonight !!

 

[discdork33]

Hey Zap,

Don't let a bad weekend get you down. Your system is a good one... keep it up. You made some good picks and got screwed this weekend. The 4th Quarter of the Utah/Phoenix game was ridiculous on Saturday, as just one example.

Good job so far this year, you made me $$ when you were hot, I have enjoyed your picks and respect your opinion on totals... don't make any changes.

How about a fresh new thread to change your luck after the all-star break?

 

[Zapster]

Thanks for the pep talk D-33. Glad you haven't lost faith. Hopefully you won't be disappointed as the rest of the season unwinds. While it is VERY tempting to start a new thread after the break and put this half of the season behind me, there are two reasons I think I should keep this thread going....First one is I think my YTD is my YTD...and need to include all posted games, good or bad....Second one, silly as it may seem, I think this thread has a shot at getting 100,000 views before the playoffs are done and I want to see what that does to the columns on the page. Hey....you asked for it you got it !!

Tonight I *had* 5 plays but Clips over got erased by my screening system, so down to 4, but one of them is a 15 Unit Play (rare these days). That is on Golden State OVER. The 15 Units is based on the numbers, but I think the line on this game is an over reaction to GS's 2 point 4th quarter Sunday night. Hard to imagine a Golden State - Seattle game coming in with a line under 206. I also think GS is more than a little embarrassed about how they played in that quarter and is likely to come out gunning. If that happens we could be heading to the cashier's window before the three minute mark in the 4th.....which would be fine with me.

Here are tonight's playzz.......:

LAKERZZ UNDER 178.5 (5 Units)
SACRAMENTO OVER 207.5 (7 Units)
INDIANA UNDER 178 (5 Units)
GOLDEN STATE OVER 197 (15 Units)

YTD 143 Wins - 138 Losses (50.89% Winners) Plus 12.8 Units

I'm at risk to go into the minus column for units for the first time since 12/9. To prevent this from happening, I am taking a different and drastic approach to tonight's games.....I am going to wear my underwear inside out. So whether you play or fade, I advise all of you to stay upwind !!!

 

[tatehill2000]

DUDE!!!!!!

Keep yoru chin up,,, we still have a WHOLE 2nd HALF of the season to come!!!

well gET EM!!!!!

this I know,,
tater