Here's an example of one of my posts from last season (this one actually turned out right...of course LSU made things easy on me last year). If anyone sees this I'd like to know what you think. I don't write these things for profit...just trying to help.
sb
09/06/03 LSU Tigers (-11.5) at Arizona Wildcats (46.5)
10:00 PM EST
Forecast: Clear (84 degrees)
SEC and PAC-10 foes collide out in the desert. Again I can’t “guarantee” anything but I’ve spent my time breaking down the game and I will give you my synopsis piece by piece. To date I have wins on Labor Day (Cincy and TCU/Tulane over) and I did lose an opinion on K State/California.
COACHES
LSU- Nick Saban: Saban enters his 4th year as LSU’s head coach after a successful term in East Lansing, MI. Saban’s Tigers have been successful as well (27-12 overall), including an SEC title in 2001 and back-to-back bowl appearances the last couple of years. The key with Saban is that he has been able to bring stability and a winning attitude to any team he has coached. Saban has never suffered a below .500 season as a head coach ANYWHERE and is 11-3 at LSU in non-conference games.
Arizona – John Mackovic: Coach Mack has had a turbulent time of it in Arizona since taking over the team in 2001 and has posted a 10-14 record in his tenure. Mackovic at AZ does have an excellent record against non-conference teams (7-1) but personally he has struggled against SEC teams (2-8) and his leadership of this team has to remain questionable.
ADVANTAGE: LSU – You have to look at what these two coaches have done in similar spans (both in very good conferences). Saban wins period. Mackovic’s control of this Wildcat team has been well publicized as being poor with players questioning gameplans and playcalling. The inability to keep these things in house reflects poorly on the coaching staff. Big points for LSU here.
QUARTERBACK
LSU – Matt Mauck (Jr.): Mauck, when healthy, has been very good as the starting QB. A career record of 6-1 when starting, Mauck has been very smart with the football. He did throw an INT last week against UL-Monroe but previous to that pick he had gone 94 consecutive passes without one. After a slow start against Monroe Mauck rallied to throw 3 touchdown passes in the last 7 minutes of the first half to put LSU in front for good. If Mauck does get hurt Jr. Marcus Randall is right there to take the reins. Randall came in to complete 5 of 7 passes for 153 yds and a TD last week and he will play if Mauck gets hurt or is ineffective.
Arizona – Nic Costa (So.): The Cats have some questions to answer here as they have 2 new QB’s replacing starter Jason Johnson who has graduated. Costa was the first one to play last week and played well (6 of 10, 119 yds, 1 TD). The key with both Costa and Fr. QB Ryan O’Hara (6’6”, threw first TD pass of career last week) is who will emerge as the leader for this offense. Neither one has big game experience and the home crowd should help them a bit as they both seemed comfortable last week against a porous UTEP squad. Mackovic has a history of running a one QB offense but with the youth he will have to play both tonight.
ADVANTAGE: LSU – Mauck and Randall are both much more established and polished than Costa or O’Hara. The Cats QB’s are too young and too unproven. LSU earns major points here as well.
RUNNING BACKS
LSU – The Tigers are sharing the wealth this year with 7 different players gaining positive yards last week against UL-Monroe. The leader in the backfield is So. Joseph Addai. Addai had 102 all-purpose yards (81 rushing, 21 receiving) including a 17 yd TD reception and averaged over 5 ypc. RS-Fr. Justin Vincent also was a nice surprise with 8 carries for 40 yards. Look for Addai to shoulder the load tonight.
Arizona – So. Mike Bell had a breakout game last week rushing for 119 yds on 13 carries and a TD, an all-time high. Bell will be the feature back in this offense but Sr. Clarence Farmer should also see some carries for an improved rushing offense.
ADVANTAGE: Push – Both teams are showing promise early but both played patsies last week. Whoever emerges in this game between Addai and Bell will go a long way to deciding who covers the spread here.
WIDE RECEIVERS
LSU - Jr. Michael Clayton is the one you need to know when watching the Tigers. An All-SEC first team player and The Sporting News #1 Wide Receiver in the SEC, Clayton lives up to his hype. He had 6 catches last week for 152 yds and 2 TD’s against UL-Monroe, with the 152 yds being a career high. Clayton will be the one to watch on a fast track tonight. Sr. Devery Henderson is also there to balance the passing game and had a TD pass one week ago. The Tigers showed the balance again with 7 different players involved in catching a pass vs. UL-Monroe.
Arizona – The Cats are replacing two starters at wideout with a collection of receivers in Sr. Lance Relford, Jr. Ricky Williams and So. Brian Ealy. Relford was impressive with a 79 yard touchdown catch against UTEP and Williams had a TD catch as well. Arizona will try to get at least 5 different players in at different times in the game to catch passes but Relford, Williams and Ealy are definitely the ones who will see the most action.
ADVANTAGE: LSU – Clayton is a “primetime player” to coin a phrase from a certain basketball icon and he will get open against any defense. Watch for Henderson to be more involved in the receiving game this week. With no Arizona wideout really stepping to the forefront LSU has the edge here.
OFFENSIVE LINE
LSU – Touted as one of the nation’s best offensive lines the Tigers front 5 are not short on experience with 96 starts combined. It starts with Tackle Sr. Rodney Reed (6-4 287) who is making his 36th start! So. Andrew Whitworth (6-7 325) was rated the #1 tackle in the SEC and had 6 pancakes against UL-Monroe a week ago. Jr. Center Ben Wilkerson (6-4 296) has a ton of pre-season accolades and is a Rimington Award candidate. Sr. Guard Stephen Peterman (6-4 321) also has a ton of pre-season accolades and is a Butkus Award candidate. He was also voted #1 Guard in the SEC by The Sporting News and preseason first team All-SEC. Average size of this line: 6-5 308.
Arizona – Sr. Tackle Brandon Phillips is their best lineman and has the size (6-6 320) and skills to be the leader on this line. This line may not have the accolades that LSU’s front line does but they will push smaller lines around and did not allow a sack in game one. This is probably the best line Arizona has had under Mackovic. Average size of this line: 6-4 308.
ADVANTAGE: LSU – Although size wise these two teams are very similar the LSU line is much more experienced. I am a proponent of looking at how they match up against defensive lines rather than against each other here but the LSU line has more polished players on their line.
DEFENSIVE LINE
LSU – A talented defensive line with standout bookends in Jr. Marcus Spears (6-4 297) and Jr. Marquise Hill (6-7 295). Spears was rated the #2 defensive end by TSN and has the game experience to turn in big plays. The tackles are good with standout Sr. Chad Lavalais (6-3 292) a pre-season All-SEC first team member. Average size of this line: 6-4 289.
Arizona – There are some new faces on the front lines for the Cats. They lost two probable starters (one to injury and one just didn’t want to rejoin the team). The line is anchored by Sr. NT Carl Tuitavuki (6-3 325). They have a lot of youth up there and will start freshman DE Paul Phillip (6-3 290). Phillip will play NT when Tuitavuki comes out of the game so he will have multiple duties. Average size of line: 6-3 304.
ADVANTAGE: LSU has more big game players on the front lines. The experience of the line should be a huge bonus to an already highly touted front. Again Arizona has the size but they don’t have the experience and I think LSU will take advantage.
LINEBACKERS
LSU – Best LB here is Jr. Lionel Turner. Turner is a Butkus Award candidate who leads by example. He led the Tigers in tackles a year ago. He was all over the place last week against UL-Monroe and had 8 tackles.
Arizona – Sr. LB Joe Siofele leads the Cats at LB this year. Siofele had 7 tackles in the opener and can fly to the ball. He also doubles as the long snapper. Fr. OLB John McKinney had a great opener with 8 tackles against UTEP to lead the defense in that department.
ADVANTAGE: Push but edge to LSU with Turner being a standout. Cats have experience at this postion so you have to question a freshman leading them in tackles in the first game.
SECONDARY
LSU – Obviously losing starter CB Randall Gay for a few weeks will hurt here. Gay was a pretty good CB for them and he will be missed. Jr. CB Ronnie Prude (5-11 176) will have to pick up the slack. Safety Jack Hunt is coming into his own in the defensive backfield and had an INT return for a TD last week. Hunt also had 9 tackles last week and led the team in that category. Jr. CB Corey Webster is a standout as an All-SEC first team player and a Nagurski and Thorpe award candidate. Rated the #6 corner in the nation Webster should not see a lot of balls thrown in his direction tonight.
Arizona – Easily the strongest part of this team...the Arizona secondary played very well in the opener allowing UTEP only 4.7 yards per completion. Sr. CB Michael Jolivette leads this group and had 2 pass breakups in the opener. Jolivette is coming off a knee injury and looks to be back in form. So. FS Darrell Brooks is also strong and opened with 5 tackles against UTEP. He was 5th in tackles a year ago for the Cats. So. SS Lamon Means had an INT that setup a score.
ADVANTAGE: Arizona as this is the one group that could make some noise tonight. They will have to deal with Clayton and Henderson so it is a big challenge but as a group they have more depth than the Tigers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
LSU – Kicking and Punting for this team are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Kicking duties fall on RS-FR. Ryan Gaudet and Fr. Chris Jackson. Gaudet and Jackson did combine to make all of their extra points in bad weather yesterday but remain unproven on field goals. Punting on the other hand is no problem as Ray Guy Award candidate Sr. Donnie Jones is all over the all-time punting lists at LSU. Jones has a career average of 41.9 yards per punt so he should be able to bail the Tigers out when needed. The return game is capable with Jr. WR Shyrone Carey handling all the punts well in horrible conditions last week and Devery Henderson taking care of kick returns.
Arizona – Excellent start for this special teams unit as the punt coverage team held UTEP to 9 yards on 5 returns and one fumble recovered. Punting duties have been split since the middle of last year as the Cats 2 punters averaged 39 yards per punt between them. Sr. K Bobby Gill should be reliable (he did miss his one attempt last week but made all the xp’s). The punt return duties are handled by two freshman so it will be a learning process on that front. Sr. Clarence Farmer and Sr. Gary Love will handle the kick returns and both have good speed.
ADVANTAGE: Push – Both teams excel in certain areas here but one special teams unit does not dominate the other. Kicking should be in Arizona’s favor but I can’t say 100 percent yes until I see Gill make field goals with regularity. Punting is obviously LSU’s strong suit and returns I’d have to lean to LSU.
INTANGIBLES
LSU – Tigers have lost the last 3 non-conference road games. 2-0 vs Mackovic all-time. Won only meeting ever with Arizona. Next game vs 1-AA Western Illinois.
Arizona – Cats 1-3-1 vs SEC all-time. Cats play 10 bowl teams from a year ago. 40264 fans at UTEP game is about half a normal LSU sized crowd in Baton Rouge. Cats 5-12 ATS in Sept home games. 18-42 ATS L60 home games!
ADVANTAGE: More bad stats ATS for Zona that’s for sure. Both teams have sterling recent non-conference records but both have not exactly tested their limits (and when LSU did last year at Va Tech they got hurt). LSU gets the edge with intangibles however as you can’t ignore the horrible home record for the Wildcats ATS.
LSU wins in Coaches, QB, WR, O Line, D Line and Intangibles
Arizona wins in Secondary
Even in RB, LB and Special Teams
My prediction: This game shapes up the way it should when there is an 11.5 point road favorite on a nationally televised game. I’m sure there will be more fans at this one for the Wildcats than the 40264 fans that showed up for hapless UTEP. I think LSU will make a statement in this one and the youth at the skill positions for Arizona will hurt them against a disciplined Saban team. There have been a lot of upsets today but this one doesn’t give me any reason to even want to pick Arizona. MAYBE if LSU had a game to look ahead at and not think about Arizona but the next game for them is a home game against 1-AA Western Illinois. This one adds up to: Too much skill, too much experience, too much LSU.
Play on LSU -11.5
