Buxton can help with steals a bit right away but I have him around .245 and 8 homers over 500 at-bats this season. I know he won't hit 500 at-bats but it's how I like to rate people to get a feel for their power. I think Correa's bat in Houston will translate better right away. Buxton can be a spark plug for the team though. He'll develop power over time but probably won't hit for 20 homers until he's 23 or so. That's my best read on him anyway.
Going forward I'm going to play it by ear as to when to pull the plug on this.
Not worried at all about Buxton. I don't think he hits right away but he makes Minnesota better defensively. Arcia has a much more MLB-ready bat and if he got called up over Buxton I'd be much more worried.
Vargas should start to hit soon. I think he has a nice 2nd half.
Beyond that Dozier, Hunter, and Plouffe are out-pacing any sort of expected power. Mauer as well but his power is so tiny it doesn't matter.
The one thing that scares me just a tick with these metrics I keep track of is that the Twins are starting to drift below the point in batting average where I usually think they'll start getting some seeing-eye singles. When I say below I mean I think numerous guys have room to improve their batting averages. I don't think the hits will be big power shots, but some of these guys are due for some good luck. Enough to make me moderately uncomfortable. However, there aren't many scary hitters on the Twins so just a few bloop singles would be enough to reverse the metrics on many of these guys. They don't have the power to make good on a gimme baserunner often enough.
If the Twins lose 2 or 3 of their next 3 games I'm going to call it a day and be happy with my profit.
Hope that all makes sense. I tend to ramble.
Not worried at all about Buxton. I don't think he hits right away but he makes Minnesota better defensively. Arcia has a much more MLB-ready bat and if he got called up over Buxton I'd be much more worried.
Vargas should start to hit soon. I think he has a nice 2nd half.
Beyond that Dozier, Hunter, and Plouffe are out-pacing any sort of expected power. Mauer as well but his power is so tiny it doesn't matter.
The one thing that scares me just a tick with these metrics I keep track of is that the Twins are starting to drift below the point in batting average where I usually think they'll start getting some seeing-eye singles. When I say below I mean I think numerous guys have room to improve their batting averages. I don't think the hits will be big power shots, but some of these guys are due for some good luck. Enough to make me moderately uncomfortable. However, there aren't many scary hitters on the Twins so just a few bloop singles would be enough to reverse the metrics on many of these guys. They don't have the power to make good on a gimme baserunner often enough.
If the Twins lose 2 or 3 of their next 3 games I'm going to call it a day and be happy with my profit.
Hope that all makes sense. I tend to ramble.
Also to expand on what I just said...
Don't read it as I think the Twins will go on a roll. I don't. I think they'll win 38-44% of their games the rest of the season. They will definitely be a squad I look to fade over the rest of the year. I'm just going to pick my spots a bit as opposed to this all-inclusive fade at some point moving forward.
Don't read it as I think the Twins will go on a roll. I don't. I think they'll win 38-44% of their games the rest of the season. They will definitely be a squad I look to fade over the rest of the year. I'm just going to pick my spots a bit as opposed to this all-inclusive fade at some point moving forward.
It's Saturday night and I'm at home battling a cold so going to give some random insights since people seem to like the numbers I'm compiling. These are all offense-based without taking into account pitching.
Boston's offense should score some runs over the next few weeks. Sandoval's injury is concerning but I'm not worried. Pedroia and Ramirez are due for some power outages but the lineup will be riddled with guys who should see power/average boosts shortly. They'll hit.
The Reds are going to have some minor difficulties scoring runs. At least until they start hitting Hamilton 1st. They need to manufacture runs with their power metrics set for a big dip. Hamilton is due for a big boost in average and he has the speed to manufacture runs. Cozart and Byrd were outpacing anything reasonable by a large amount so the fact that they are on the DL actually helps the Reds' offense (or at least evens out the negative proponent a tick). Bruce still has some upside I guess but nothing special. Not a big lean but I'd guess they have some issues away from home.
Cubs have plenty of power upside. Even more when Soler is back. Keep an eye on the Wrigley wind. When it's blowing out you should get some ChC runs.
The White Sox are going to score plenty of runs over the next month. I don't know if they have the pitching to win a ton of games but the overs should be solid. ChW is definitely a team I'll be looking to play going forward if the spot is right.
Signing off. Didn't make it very far in my team-by-team eval but hopefully that helps somewhat.
Boston's offense should score some runs over the next few weeks. Sandoval's injury is concerning but I'm not worried. Pedroia and Ramirez are due for some power outages but the lineup will be riddled with guys who should see power/average boosts shortly. They'll hit.
The Reds are going to have some minor difficulties scoring runs. At least until they start hitting Hamilton 1st. They need to manufacture runs with their power metrics set for a big dip. Hamilton is due for a big boost in average and he has the speed to manufacture runs. Cozart and Byrd were outpacing anything reasonable by a large amount so the fact that they are on the DL actually helps the Reds' offense (or at least evens out the negative proponent a tick). Bruce still has some upside I guess but nothing special. Not a big lean but I'd guess they have some issues away from home.
Cubs have plenty of power upside. Even more when Soler is back. Keep an eye on the Wrigley wind. When it's blowing out you should get some ChC runs.
The White Sox are going to score plenty of runs over the next month. I don't know if they have the pitching to win a ton of games but the overs should be solid. ChW is definitely a team I'll be looking to play going forward if the spot is right.
Signing off. Didn't make it very far in my team-by-team eval but hopefully that helps somewhat.
Chicago @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1½ +144 over Chicago
BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +144 Betfair -1½ +142 Bet365 -1½ +140SportsInteraction -1½ +135 Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
"Against starters Colby Lewis, Nick Martinez and Yovanni Gallardo this past weekend, the White scored three earned runs total. They scored another three runs on the Rangers relievers to bring their three-game overall total to six runs scored ay U.S. Cellular Field over the weekend. We can’t even begin to explain how pathetic that is against two very below average starters (Lewis and Martinez) and one average one. At least the Rangers had an excuse with several key starters on the rack including Adrian Beltre and Delino DeShields among others. Over their past 20 games, the South Side’s 215 team batting average is dead last in the majors. So too is their 58 runs scored over that stretch. To come within 1½-runs here, Chicago is going to have to score some runs because John Danks figures to give up plenty. Danks has thrown just one quality game in seven starts on the road. Target Field has been a house of horrors for him. Already this season he has a disaster start in a visit to Target Field and in nine career starts there, he is 2-6 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 50 innings. Danks brings a 33% groundball rate, 87 mph heat, a weak strikeout rate of 52 K’s in 78 innings, a brutal 1.45 WHIP and a 5.31 ERA and a 6.35 ERA over his last three games to this start. The only reason he’s even in the rotation is because the South Side is paying this stiff 15.75M to pitch this season.
Tommy Milone is one of the more interesting studies in the game. He opened the year as the Twins’ fifth starter, but he couldn’t hold it after posting a 4.76 ERA and striking out just two more batters than he walked. Milone subsequently earned a demotion to Triple-A Rochester where something good happened before he was recalled on June 4. What happened was Milone started striking out guys at an elite level. The man who holds just a 16.6% strikeout rate over 518 Major League innings struck out 33.6% of batters over 38.2 innings. That’s 47 strikeouts and just three walks over 38.2 innings at Rochester. The minors you say? That’s true but pitchers that are sent down do not double their strikeout rate and significantly increase their swing and miss rate. In his last two starts, at this level, Milone went seven full innings in both of them in Texas and at home against the Cardinals. All he did in those 14 frames was allow eight hits while striking out 13, walking one and inducing 53% groundouts. Then there’s this little nugget too: in five career starts against the South Side, Milone is 2-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. That’s when Milone was worse and the White Sox were known as a team that could bash. We’re not going to wait to see of Milone’s skills gains are real any longer. 57 consecutive innings of outstanding pitching split between the minors and majors, plus his experience, is enough incentive."
sherwood
107-124, +7.73 units YTD
around +70 units in each of last 2 seasons
MINNESOTA -1½ +144 over Chicago
BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +144 Betfair -1½ +142 Bet365 -1½ +140SportsInteraction -1½ +135 Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
"Against starters Colby Lewis, Nick Martinez and Yovanni Gallardo this past weekend, the White scored three earned runs total. They scored another three runs on the Rangers relievers to bring their three-game overall total to six runs scored ay U.S. Cellular Field over the weekend. We can’t even begin to explain how pathetic that is against two very below average starters (Lewis and Martinez) and one average one. At least the Rangers had an excuse with several key starters on the rack including Adrian Beltre and Delino DeShields among others. Over their past 20 games, the South Side’s 215 team batting average is dead last in the majors. So too is their 58 runs scored over that stretch. To come within 1½-runs here, Chicago is going to have to score some runs because John Danks figures to give up plenty. Danks has thrown just one quality game in seven starts on the road. Target Field has been a house of horrors for him. Already this season he has a disaster start in a visit to Target Field and in nine career starts there, he is 2-6 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 50 innings. Danks brings a 33% groundball rate, 87 mph heat, a weak strikeout rate of 52 K’s in 78 innings, a brutal 1.45 WHIP and a 5.31 ERA and a 6.35 ERA over his last three games to this start. The only reason he’s even in the rotation is because the South Side is paying this stiff 15.75M to pitch this season.
Tommy Milone is one of the more interesting studies in the game. He opened the year as the Twins’ fifth starter, but he couldn’t hold it after posting a 4.76 ERA and striking out just two more batters than he walked. Milone subsequently earned a demotion to Triple-A Rochester where something good happened before he was recalled on June 4. What happened was Milone started striking out guys at an elite level. The man who holds just a 16.6% strikeout rate over 518 Major League innings struck out 33.6% of batters over 38.2 innings. That’s 47 strikeouts and just three walks over 38.2 innings at Rochester. The minors you say? That’s true but pitchers that are sent down do not double their strikeout rate and significantly increase their swing and miss rate. In his last two starts, at this level, Milone went seven full innings in both of them in Texas and at home against the Cardinals. All he did in those 14 frames was allow eight hits while striking out 13, walking one and inducing 53% groundouts. Then there’s this little nugget too: in five career starts against the South Side, Milone is 2-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. That’s when Milone was worse and the White Sox were known as a team that could bash. We’re not going to wait to see of Milone’s skills gains are real any longer. 57 consecutive innings of outstanding pitching split between the minors and majors, plus his experience, is enough incentive."
sherwood
107-124, +7.73 units YTD
around +70 units in each of last 2 seasons
Game has been over for almost 12 hours and not a damn thank you.....I had this game circled last week.......carry on Jake.....
I think Molitor moving Buxton to the leadoff spot is a good move, but I caution the Minny fans that this game was against Danks.....the line moved 30 cents and then came back down......
