XMSR and SIRI

Rawpimple · Oct 13, 2005

these may be a play now. They have been dipping down and they seem to run in cycles. XMSR hits upper 20s to 30 and goes to 36.

Siri goes to 6 and 7.

VSNI is a OTCBB sotck that is coming out with a videophone for VOIP. Once they release these phones (which should be by the end of 2005) this stock should jump pretty good. Its 0.63 cents now and looking to get a double out of it at least.

EinsteinSys · Oct 31, 2005

I've learned never to recommend a stock to anyone. Always do your own research.

I've owned Sirius for a few years. I owned it when the Tech bubble burst. I took a loss on it back then. I Got back in when they were near bankruptcy when the price was $.46. Kept buying and some selling for profit on the way up. It's a very volatile stock. Not for the faint of heart. When my friend bought it at $1.80. I told him, just don't look at it on a daily basis.

Good sign that consumer spending was up in September. I would think the gas prices should come down now that the criminals in the gas industry have made record profits. More pressure on them to lower prices. That means more discretionary spending for the consumer during Christmas. New Sirius products coming out and Howard Stern jumping on board. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sirius hit a new high before or during the Christmas season. Past high was about $9.40. Another typical move today. The last half hour it spikes up about 2% on high volume.

They have their conference call tomorrow. I'm looking for more of the same with the cash burn. The big thing will be the subscriber numbers. The last couple of months have been positive on that note.We shall see what happens tomorrow. Could take a beating like it did a few days ago when XM disappointed on their expenses. They usually move together. Their like kissing cousins.

If it gets beaten down tomorrow I don't think it will stay down very long. If it's a glowing report on the subs and new products then it could be well on it's way to a new high.

For the record I've bought cheaply in the past but I have been buying much more in the $6 range recently.

Hitman26 · Nov 1, 2005

Sirius:

I know the stock isn't so great, but their product is fantastic. I bought a reciever for my home stereo 2 years ago and paid 500 bucks for the lifetime subscription. If you were to pro-rate how much I've paid for every minute that I've listened to it, it would be something like $0.00001. NFL, NHL, NBA, CFB and my favorite channel 8, the big 80's.

Rawpimple · Nov 9, 2005

SIRI trades in a typical fasion. I buy in at 6 and sell at 7 and have been doing this several times although this time I am holding and so expect it to break its 52 week high.

They have several new products coming out and a great new advertising campaign. They are selling and getting subscribers like freakin hot cakes.

VSNI and ERHE two others I own and although riskier I expect both to have some sort of breakout within 4 months. 1/2 breakout and I may retire.

Rawpimple · Nov 17, 2005

SIRI up over 7

VSNI up today from 0.50 to 0.63

ERHE up a little as well

I expect SIRI to SHATTER the 52 week high by early next year.
VSNI to go up to around 1.50 by next year
ERHE to move close to the one bucko range by next year.

Sportsrmylife · Nov 26, 2005

Siri....has tripled in price the last 3 years straight right around Xmas time. I bought some at $1.28....than it went to $3.25 for Xmas. I see that stock soaring when Stern comes aboard. The problem with this stock is that the fundementals are terrible right now. But this is a long term stock!!! Keep buying baby...it will pay off in the long run as Siri/XM Satillite radio is here to stay!!!

GreenDoberman · Dec 7, 2005

Be careful of market cap in SIRI. Stock has a ton of float. Might be a short-term trade for Xmas and Stern's beginning. Any disappointments will bury it, though.

High risk gamble here.

EinsteinSys · Dec 7, 2005

GreenDoberman said:
Be careful of market cap in SIRI. Stock has a ton of float. Might be a short-term trade for Xmas and Stern's beginning. Any disappointments will bury it, though.

High risk gamble here.

Life is a gamble. This is not your grandfathers stock. I was warned about this stock in the $1-2 range with those same concerns. No doubt this is a very volatile stock. The flip side is that this is the kind of stock you have a chance of doubling your money short term. Maybe a little less now then in the past but a good return nonetheless. I think there is a very good chance for this stock to hit a new high ($9.46) near term. I've been around this stock long enough to know what to expect. The main thing to look for is that magical 3 million subscriber number before the quarter ends. I would expect an announcement before years end from either some analyst upgrading this stock in anticipation of beating that number or Sirius coming out with some kind of news that they've reached that milestone. If no news comes out before the next quarterly report it may be a good time to sell some off. In the past they've always been able to beat their subscriber numbers that they've predicted. Cash burn is another thing. Sometimes falling below. Last quarter surprisingly they beat that number. In the past subscriber numbers have been more imortant then cash burn. Starting next year I'm sure that will all change. They're going to have to start showing more on the money side. That's next year not this quarter.

My strategy with this stock is to always keep some shares and if and when this stock goes up I will not hesitate to skim off some profits. "Pigs get fed. Hogs get slaughtered". If the stock hits a new high and I think it will, that would be about a 31% increase from last nights close. When a stock hits a new high it will usually run for awhile beyond that. Maybe $10 - 11 - 12???? That would be short term It would probably come back down and settle into the $7-9 range. Possible lows during next year In the $6 range. Good time to buy back in.

If they come up short on their number I could see this stock dropping back down into the $5-6 range. Of course this is still a long term investment. That would just be a temporary setback. This stock is not for the faint of heart. So don't panic.

An important thing to remember is that there are only 2 companies in this business. And there will only be 2 companies for a long time to come. The FCC has issued only 2 licenses. I'm not sure off hand for how long but I think it's well beyond 2010. There are a whole lot of subscribers to share amongst the 2 of them. Some analyst have predicted some outrages number by the year 2012 and beyond. Something like 60 million. Both XM and Sirius have said they will hit break even by the end of next year. Right now they are cash burning cows. By next year XM should have around 10 million and Sirius 6 million. That's only 16 million out of a possible 60 million. The CEO of Sirius has said there could be a stock buy back when they become cash positive to reduce the float and to bolster stock value. I wouldn't expect that for at least 3 or 4 years if everything falls in place for the company.

***I am not suggesting to anyone to buy this stock. Due your on due diligence.

GreenDoberman · Dec 7, 2005

Good post. I was not saying it was not a potential winner, just don't advise a newbie inexperienced in investing to chunk their stake on a high-risk stock such as this.
From your analysis I can see you have a strong grasp of this stock and fundamentals and wish you well. There are many on here that don't do their due diligence and I concur with your advice.

Rawpimple · Dec 9, 2005

SIRI doing well and had a nice gain today. We are now near 8 baby!

golfer70 · Dec 9, 2005

some analyst just started covering them today and put a buy on both has xmsr around 42 and SIRI around 9 in 12 months...could be the time to jump in if your not in.

Dawoofdaddy · Dec 11, 2005

SIRI looking very strong here......I am holding shares I have.

Rawpimple · Dec 11, 2005

I was in SIRI a little below 6 and was gonna sell at 7 but I like what this company is doing and fully expect them to break the 52 week high.

Rawpimple · Dec 11, 2005

Let me also state my strategy. I do not go for companies that barely move and wow I got a 5% return this year. I am a freakin gambler and I go for companies with the potential for BIGGGGGGGG moves. I am not in the market for 5%. There are plenty of companies out there that move and I pride myself on finding them. Sure I may have a few losers from time to time but I do find some big winners and many more winners to offset the losses. Big gains in as short of a period of time as possible.
Like some have stated always do your own DD. I can present you the stocks to look at and its your job to analyze them and make the decision. Now lets go make some more CA$$$$$$H!

Hustler982 · Dec 16, 2005

VSNI is up to .70 today .. RP you still own it?

BlueLab · Dec 16, 2005

What do you look for?

Rawpimple,

When you are looking at investing in a stock, what are the certain things that you are looking for that would make the stock a buy? Also, do anything with penny stocks? Just trying to learn from you.

Thanks

LineTamer+ · Dec 20, 2005

Siri, bought a Sportster Radio for my parents as their Xmas gift. Had to make 5 stops before i found one, as 2 Best Buys and 2 Targets were sold out of it. Also tried online at Circut City and Best But and both were out of stock.

Finally found it in Stock at a small RadioShack.

These things have been selling like wildfire.

Subscriptions have to go up this new year.

Presto · Dec 26, 2005

This time of year SIRI is getting a lot of attentin due to Howard Stern. One still has to question how or if SIRI will re-coup that $500 million outlay @$12 a month per subscription. One thing is for sure, Stern is a winner.

While SIRI and XMSR are in the same business, they seem to have very different strategies.