World Cup Prop Bets

[X-Files]

I read this on another site and thought a lot of these looked good,
but i am by no means a sharp with this sport.


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here are the best ones I found. let me know what you think

Mexico O 3.5 points (-150) I look for Mexico to come out strong and win a game and they should grab a draw also

South Africa U 3.5 points (-130) I dont see South Africa winning a game

Mexico First Goal against South Africa +100

South Korea First Goal against Greece +140

Greece U 3.5 points (-110) Dont see them winning a game and if they do, i see them losing to Nigeria and Argentina

England First Goal against USA -220

England O 6.5 points (-160) 2 easy wins against Algeria and Slovenia and at worst a Draw against the US

Algeria U 2.5 points (-140) No win for Algeria and a definate loss against England

Germany First Goal against Australia -225

Serbia O 3.5 points (-160) A win against Australia and a Draw/Win vs Ghana

Australia U 2.5 points (+115) No win for Australia and a loss vs Germany or others

Netherlands First Goal vs Denmark -160

Netherlands O 6.5 points (+110) 2 wins against Japan and Denmark and a win/draw against Cameroon

Japan U 2.5 points (+100) NO win for Japan and a loss somewhere

Italy O 6.5 points (-135) 2 wins against New Zealand and Slovakia and they dont lose

North Korea U 0.5 points (-160) Not a single point against Ivory Coast, Brazil, or Portugal here

Chile First Goal against Honduras -180

Spain First Goal against Switzerland -275

Spain O 6.5 Points (-200) 2 Wins and at worst a draw

 

[JDeuce]

North Korea U 0.5 points (-160) Not a single point against Ivory Coast, Brazil, or Portugal here


Under is the best bet on the board IMO. NK doesn't have a prayer against Brazil or Portugal. African teams are tricky, but I like Ivory Coast's chances at making a deep run in this tourney. I think these three teams are going to use the NK goal for target practice...could very well see Kim Jong Il's boys end up with something like zero goals scored and 14 conceded.

Speaking of this group, my darkhorse longshot is...Brazil won't advance to the knockout stages. Portugal will take first, IC to take second in the group...

 

[mclosin]

disagree on almost all of them. laying a ton of juice like that cant end well. i understand they are all leans though.

starting with mexico and south africa, i dont think you can even put into words how much being at home means in this event. mexico will be under enormous pressure in game 1 against the hosts and could easily blow that game. if they did, you would be almost sunk on both bets IMMEDIATELY, not to mention that it would almost be like 0-3 rather then 0-2 cuz of the juice.

i think the greece pick is a decent one if they do not beat korea, should cash.

england way too much juice especially since last game could be completely meaningless.

japan under is probably a good one and italy well a lot has changed in 4 years.

also north korea is going to be playing for 0-0 draws, not to advance. they pack 11 behind the ball and are up against a few shaky defenses. they are very overmatched, but they will be playing all 3 games for just one point.

 

[PRC]

Yeah too much juice and you are not taking account that teams may not have to play their third game because they will have wrapped up first in their group, so that will give teams like Australia, Algeria and SA to get some points. Also, do not underestimate SA. It means a lot to be playing on your own turf in any game, but the WC brings it to a whole new level. Just be careful about fading SA. They are also in a group that looks much stronger than it is. Mexico got beat 3-1 by an England team playing without two of their starting back and no chelsea players. They managed only one goal, which has been a problem for them lately. France is hurting with Ribery not playing his best right now, Benzema off the squad, Diarra off the squad and Gallas questionable at this point

 

[JDeuce]

also north korea is going to be playing for 0-0 draws, not to advance. they pack 11 behind the ball and are up against a few shaky defenses. they are very overmatched, but they will be playing all 3 games for just one point.


It doesn't mean they'll be able to stop any of the other teams in their group from scoring. Even if they do pack all 11 guys behind the ball, that not only means they won't score...it means the ball will be in their end for the full 90 minutes. There's simply no way Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast won't break them down and find the net eventually. The talent disparity is far too wide.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'd be stunned if NK manages a single point in this tourney...and -160 isn't absurd juice to lay. Besides, plenty of opportunity to hedge since the draw lines on NK will be astronomically high for every one of their games. No sense in wasting money betting the possibilty of a NK win. There's simply no way they'll beat any of these teams...

 

[X-Files]

Re the host team i just read this:

"I think you are underestimating how poor this south african team is. They have obtained 1 win from their last five matches.They failed to beat crap teams like namibia,japan,jamaica.Laying south africa seems to be the reasonable option."

Comments?

 

[X-Files]

also north korea is going to be playing for 0-0 draws, not to advance. they pack 11 behind the ball and are up against a few shaky defenses. they are very overmatched, but they will be playing all 3 games for just one point.


It doesn't mean they'll be able to stop any of the other teams in their group from scoring. Even if they do pack all 11 guys behind the ball, that not only means they won't score...it means the ball will be in their end for the full 90 minutes. There's simply no way Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast won't break them down and find the net eventually. The talent disparity is far too wide.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'd be stunned if NK manages a single point in this tourney...and -160 isn't absurd juice to lay. Besides, plenty of opportunity to hedge since the draw lines on NK will be astronomically high for every one of their games. No sense in wasting money betting the possibilty of a NK win. There's simply no way they'll beat any of these teams...

Without hedging is it possible the third team NK plays will have nothing to fight for
and happily accept a boring draw?

With the hedge you speak of, exactly how would you go about that after wagering
North Korea U 0.5 points (-160)? Bet the draw in advance of each game also?

 

[mclosin]

very poor information you got there. south africas last 5 games have been wins over jamaica and thailand 2 scrubs but quite easy wins. draw with bulgaria (kinda shaky) draw with north korea 0-0 in germany and 1-1 draw at paraguay (quality result IMO).

i wanna go back to this north korea deal. i completely disagree that -160 is not a lot, considering they have to lose all 3 games. very little is known about this team but i do guarantee they have great chemistry, since almost the whole team plays in the national league. go back to 06 where a team was supposed to get dominated named trinidad and tobago. they managed a 0-0 draw the first game against sweden, playing a man down for more then half the game. i just think you can find better value then this. out of all the picks you have i think the japan under is my favorite one to be honest, the team is a mess right now and in a pretty tough group, i have a hard time seeing them get a victory.

 

[X-Files]

very poor information you got there. south africas last 5 games have been wins over jamaica and thailand 2 scrubs but quite easy wins. draw with bulgaria (kinda shaky) draw with north korea 0-0 in germany and 1-1 draw at paraguay (quality result IMO).

Thank you for the responses, mclosin & all. At this point there seem to be points
on both sides and probably a no play for me. But to add to the info here, i was
just reading the following 2 comments, from 5 & 9 days ago:


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Even if 100% of the hosts nations has qualified for the second round before, I don't think SA is gonna do that trick also. They are unlucky with the draw and they have problems scoring (why is the SA FA giving $$$ per goal otherwise?). Although the most recent results were 4-0 (Thailand) and 2-0 (Jamaica, but I've seen this match, they were a bit lucky) I don't think it will happen against better teams.

I think laying will be the best option, but it's important to wait for the friendlies against Colombia and Denmark (Number 34 and 35 of FIFA ranking). If they can't get results against them, they won't get results against number 10, 17 and 18 of FIFA ranking.

France lost to Spain 0-2 and meets Costa Rica (FIFA 42), Tunis and China.

Mexico have beaten Chile with 1-0 (FIFA 15) and will meet England, Netherlands and Italy before.

Uruguay have beaten Suiss (FIFA 26) in friendly with 1-3 and meets Israel.


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I might lay South Africa.

I've just seen their provisional squad and the only players that stand out are Mokoena, Peinaar, that Dikgacoi lad from Fulham, Sibaya from Rubin and that Tshabalala (lovely name!) from Kaizer Chiefs.

Benni McCarthy is better off doing some damage at my local Burger King.

 

[JDeuce]

With the hedge you speak of, exactly how would you go about that after wagering
North Korea U 0.5 points (-160)? Bet the draw in advance of each game also?


Here's the Group G schedule:

===

MATCH 13 - Tuesday, June 15, 2010 Port Elizabeth
Ivory Coast VS Portugal 10:00 AM ET
MATCH 14 - Tuesday, June 15, 2010 Johannesburg
Brazil VS North Korea 2:30 PM ET


MATCH 29 - Sunday, June 20, 2010 Johannesburg
Brazil VS Ivory Coast 2:30 PM ET
MATCH 30 - Monday, June 21, 2010 Cape Town
Portugal VS North Korea 7:30 AM ET


MATCH 46 - Friday, June 25, 2010 Nelspruit
North Korea VS Ivory Coast 10:00 AM ET
MATCH 45 - Friday, June 25, 2010 Durban
Portugal VS Brazil 10:00 AM ET

===

I'd bet the under on N. Korea points, then wouldn't even bother wasting money hedging with NK's first game against Brazil. The last line I saw for that match was something like Brazil -1500, and while I would never bet a line that high, it's a bargain as far as I'm concerned.

So, after the first round of games, the table will look something like this:

Brazil - 3 pts
Portugal/IC - 1 point each, or 3 and 0 in whatever order
N Korea - 0 pts

I'd guess you could probably find a draw line of +500 or so for NK's matches against Portugal and Ivory Coast. I'd play them one game at a time for maybe 25% of what you put on NK under .5 pts.

To the poster who brought up T&T in '06...that's a vastly different comparison. Sweden is a mid-tier UEFA side while CONCACAF is a tougher qualifying region than North Korea's AFC. Group G is the group of death in this tourney as far as I'm concerned. Not only will every point be crucial, but each team will be looking to run up the score on NK as much as possible to help their goal differential since advancing to the knockout stage may very well depend on that. I know the FIFA rankings aren't a be-all end-all indicator of team strength, but Brazil is currently ranked first, Portugal is third, Ivory Coast is 27th, and North Korea is 105th. Imagine a round-robin college basketball tournament with Duke, Kentucky, Kansas...and Bethune-Cookman. That's what this group will look like.

The only way Ivory Coast will half-ass their final game is if they win their first two games against Portugal and Brazil (not likely). African teams can be incredibly inconsistent, and in no way am I saying it's impossible for NK to pick up a point...but the talent disparity is just too great here.

 

[X-Files]

i wanna go back to this north korea deal. i completely disagree that -160 is not a lot, considering they have to lose all 3 games. very little is known about this team but i do guarantee they have great chemistry, since almost the whole team plays in the national league. go back to 06 where a team was supposed to get dominated named trinidad and tobago. they managed a 0-0 draw the first game against sweden, playing a man down for more then half the game. i just think you can find better value then this. out of all the picks you have i think the japan under is my favorite one to be honest, the team is a mess right now and in a pretty tough group, i have a hard time seeing them get a victory.

I'll look into that Japan bet and see what i can find. As stated in another
thread, i understand that laying juice, even as small as -160, is not
everyone's cup of tea.

Another way to play/lay North Korea would be to bet them to finish last
in their group. That way even if they get lucky with a draw you don't
necessarily lose and probably cash your ticket. I am seeing odds of
around -500 for this. Or NK 0-2 group points at -600 would allow
them to achieve two draws. I am also seeing NK under 1.5 group
points at -350ish, and under 1.5 group goals at about -150. The latter
would be a success if NK is only playing for 0-0 draws every match.
Though it is possible getting behind they would open things up and
get slaughtered, but also get a lucky goal or two in the 3 games.

 

[JDeuce]

North Korea U 0.5 points (-160) Not a single point against Ivory Coast, Brazil, or Portugal here


X...tell me you loaded up on this one. Lots of opportunity to middle with IC on Thursday if you did.

 

[X-Files]

North Korea U 0.5 points (-160) Not a single point against Ivory Coast, Brazil, or Portugal here


X...tell me you loaded up on this one. Lots of opportunity to middle with IC on Thursday if you did.

Unfortunately not, though i could still get on board at about -250 ;

Is there any way IC don't win this game?