Wk 4 - Colts and Oakland

[jaypaw]

I posted this in another thread and I'm 99% convinced that I'm gonna go with the colts buying it to -3 if necessary...

FACT - The colts defense is LAST in yards per game allowed - but they have faced the offenses of Brady, McNair (granted with much less of a team around him), and Favre - sure with another secondary injury there will be more pressure on them, but leftwich doesnt compare well to Brady, Mcnair, and Favre... Take this stat for what its worth, maybe a wash maybe a slight plus to jacksonville but looking at who indy has faced its no suprise they are last in yards allowed per game.

FACT - the jacksonville offense is LAST in yards per game - having faced the defenses of buffalo (Yds allowed per game rank 4), denver (Yds allowed per game rank FIRST), and tennessee (Yds allowed per game rank 12th). Give Jacksonville some credit offensively for doing enough to win - and adjusting for denver you could make a slight case for this being a stat thats a tad harsh - however, it is what it is - last in the league in yards per game. Anemic if you ask me. Definitely missing some red blood cells...

FACT - The colts offense is FIRST in yards per game - having faced the pats D (14th in yds allowed per game), Tennessee (12th in yds allowed per game), and Green Bay(21st in yds allowed per game). Adjusting for who they played this still puts the colts among the best offensively. Now look at who they are facing:

FACT - The jags defense is 8th in yards allowed per game - having faced the buffalo offense (rank 29th in yds per game), Tennessee offense Mc Nair (rank 23rd in yds per game), and denver offense (rank 9th in yds per game). Anemia in the competition is the story here - the jags rank 8th in yds allowed per game not because they are underrated - BUT the case can be made that they are in fact OVERRATED slightly considering they have faced the 23rd and 29th ranked offenses of tennessee and Buffalo (in terms of yards allowed per game). Reality puts the jags defense in about the middle of the pack.


Jags Defense in the MIDDLE of the pack - Colts Offense at the TOP of the heap any way you slice it.

Jags Offense at the BOTTOM of the pack - Colts Defense at the BOTTOM of the pack.

I see a net result of the colts being on top. By 4 or more points in a hostile place against a D that put Mcnair out of action? That one will be determined at gametime - but I have trouble making the case that the colts won't at least win here.



ALSO I cant for the life of me figure out why the oakland houston spread is 3 or under - Kerry collins brings the raiders something they've needed for a long time, a replacement for the overacheiving lifelong backup that was rich gannon. I'll be looking at this one with great interest because if i can get it at 3 or better I think I'll take it.




YTD 7-4 +2.86

 

[jaypaw]

starting it off with an expensive buy - but I think worth the price nonetheless

Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)

 

[dolphin]

I appreciate your inclination with the Colts, but I have one long league-wide trend which is 63% against the Colts here and their secondary is weak/continuing to lose personnel. I suspect Leftwich is healing AND he has faced VERY tough 'D's so far. Despite "needing" this win, the Colts could have a letdown after a BIG victory over the Titans and a macho offensive game v. Favre and the Packers.

As for the Raiders, I agree Collins fits well. However, a 2-point line is like an 8-point line in Oakland, and this is after a very emotional game v. the Bucs. The Texans, as I have said in other posts, are probably 7-9 quality. They were pretty unlucky with bounces in their first two games, and quite lucky v. the Chiefs. I think their confidence should be at a healthy, balanced level now. Without the letdown, I think this number should be PK or Texans -1. With the letdown, Texans 2-2.5. This is all assuming Dom. Davis is ok. I would deduct 1.5 points if he is out.

 

[Oren1]

Jaypaw,
I lie the Colts this year in Jacksonville but I think I'm going to pass because I got burned on the same game last year when the Jags beat them at home. Raiders look like a pretty good play to me. :heh: gl

 

[jaypaw]

GL guys

keep the input coming

still gotta decide whether or not luck had anything to do with houston as dolphins mentions

 

[RightSide]

Love them both Jaypaw!! Got the Colts early Monday and bought it to 2.5. Colts and Raiders are two big plays for me....Might want to look at Tampa this weekend as well...That's a HUGE play for me. GL!!

 

[jaypaw]

thanks RSS

Gl to you


please be careful on tampa - it is my impression that gruden has lost his head and he has been doing some very questionable things. He muffed it up with his best receiver who is holding out STILL, he pulled his starter in the second quarter for no reason a couple of games ago, and he just got humiliated in Oakland and very possibly lost the respect of even more of his players - the other ones who came over from oakland.

Now with garner out

That said Denver hasnt played anyone so who knows - they are first in the league I think in rush defense

GL

 

[jaypaw]

Going with oakland now that its back up...

heres my summary stats just for recordkeeping:
Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)

Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16

Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120
YTD 7-4 +2.86



Week 4 Picks:
Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
YTD 7-4 +2.86

 

[RightSide]

Hey Jaypaw...I know the TB and BUFF picks are scary, but they'll come through...I'm telling you! Especially the TB pick! That's what's been giving me success this season so far...my picks have been off the wall, but they win. I found a couple of awsome systems in the offseason that have been DYNAMITE in years past and it's proven true so far this season. Week one, I had the Browns as everyone in their mother was on Balt. Week two, NO ONE said Seattle could go back to back weeks of traveling and beat TB..they won. And last week I got a bunch of crap for having Pittsburgh as my Top Play and they won! This week it's TB as I'm already getting comments on why the hell I'd go with a team like that...well, it's the system baby!! Just wanted to explain myself to you since you and I both have been here a long time and I do respect your opinions.....GL!!!

 

[jaypaw]

how can a system work from one year to the next? Team chemistries are changing more now than they ever have

seattle is a better team than they have been in a while wouldnt you agree? identifying that fact before the game - if that is what the sytem somehow did - would have been the key in my opinion, plus tampa is in shambles and catching that would have been key also, in that case a lot of intangibles (grudens idiocy) came into play

the reason tampa is scary is because with garner out they have nothing to fall back on if johnson isnt miraculously turned into john elway... denver hasnt played good teams but they have at least been consistent on the Defensive side of the ball and lynch is gonna be out for heads (like oakland was last week)

who gave you crap over pittsburgh? Roethlisberger must have been the reason - but to be honest - who knew how he would perform? AJ feeley is reason to bet against any team hes on in my opinion...

any way GL

 

[jaypaw]

PS - I do respect your opinions - but you must know by now that when people say "its just the system" I tend to look the other way

but if its a system you buy into then I guess I'll have to take your word for it and trust your judgement

best of luck

 

[$haggy]

I'm tempted to be on the Colts here too as the number looks good, but a few things are holding me back:

1) If you shift home fields and the Colts are at home, you're looking at a nien point line. Are the Colts 9 points better at home then the Jags? I don't think so. That defense and specifically that defensive line are the real deal. At best I think the Colts are a 7 point favorite at home.
2) I anticipate a let down after the Colts got the big win against Green Bay.
3) I think the key to beating the Colts is to keep there defense on the field as long as possible. I think with Fred Taylor in the backfield, the Jags will be able to do this. Too many teams try to get into shootouts with the Colts. You're gonna lose that battle (ask the Packers)... A ball control pounding style, however, would be more effective, and Fred Taylor is gonna get fed the ball 25+ times this weekend. Mark my words.
4) Colts D can be run on. Chris Brown dropped 150 yards on this unit in week 2. Fred Taylor is due for a huge game.

I don't like the other side enough to bet on the Jags, but all of this is enough to have me off the Colts.

AS I posted in the other thread, I'm on the over 42 for this Raiders v Texans game. I agree that Collins gives the Raiders offense a big push, but I think the Raiders defense is a bit overrated and Houston will be able to score on them. Specifically, Phillip Buchanan who is lightening quick, but only like 5"9'. Johnson, Gafney, and BRadford are all 6"1 or better. They will exploit this mismatch. D. Davis' status will have an impact on this tho. If he plays (which It looks like he will) I definitely like the Texans to put up some points.

This one will be a shootout that will probably be decided by a field goal. 31-28 type of game...

Good luck no matter which side you're playing this weekend...

 

[jaypaw]

the problem is the jags cant put up points... Their D is good but will - "mark my words" WILL get scored on through the air by manning and co.

A TD and a couple of FGs is all it takes to beat the jags - at home or on the road, because leftwich and friends arent the scoring machine that indy is... and keep in mind - LAST YEAR when the colts lost at jacksonville they were without marvin harrison for THREE QUARTERS.

IF the jags can run taylor for 150 yards this time again, and if harrison is out for three quarters, and IF the jags can score 28 points like they did last year vs indy - then I will concede that Indy can't win.


I just look at what green bay did on them scoring 31 points and still losing - then look at the offensive attacks of buffalo, denver, and tennessse - and it makes it obvious that the jags are gonna be facing something they havent yet this year. Indy WILL score a TD facilitated by their air attack - and the jags are gonna look at eachother and go "UGH"

because maybe the indy D is soft - but its a wash because the jags have NO weapons on offense...

who is leftwich gonna throw to? George Wrighster?

Indys game plan will be to make this into a shootout - and the second indy scores and leftwich looks to jimmy smith to match the score - he is gonna realize they are up shits creek.




I admit that might be tough if the jags can win the toss and run down the field for a score - but to base your entire game plan on that is tough - and its not enough for me to lay off indy. Its a risk Im willing to take

 

[Oren1]

In my opinion Tampa bay is a really bad pick. You're only getting 3 points against one of the best teams in the AFC right now. Tampa, as you know, has absolutely NOTHING going for it on offense, and they let Kerry Collins put up a lot of points on them on defense. The Raiders also ran for over 150 yards on them. Denver should win easily, their defense will shut down Tampa, and they should run all over the tired defense, which will be on the field most of the game as their offense will be going 3 and out on almost every possession . Tampa Bay will start the season 0-4.

 

[jaypaw]

I agree

tampa isnt looking like a good choice

 

[jaypaw]

RSS I am getting worried about you man

the more I read up on the bills pats I am getting the feeling that the pats do want this game. I am in the boston market so it could just be media bias - but back to how it looks on paper - its hard to make the case that they dont match up with an advantange talent wise.


http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=13047322&BRD=1712&PAG=461&dept_id=106787&rfi=6

Milloy is still listed as out - is this right?:
http://story.theinsiders.com/a.z?s=232&p=2&c=300697

This is not a good plug from the buffalo news:
http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20041001/2024254.asp

although the pats are hurting some - if brady's shoulder becomes an issue then it will be a different ballgame:
http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20041001/1027571.asp

I wonder how much wilfork will get to tackle mcgahee
http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=46903

 

[jaypaw]

Oren - I hate to go back on things here but I wouldnt exactly call denver one of the best teams in the AFC right now. They have put up 3 consistent efforts (similar to oakland) but they havent really been tested IMO.

they are 2-1 having only beaten KC and SD. Losing jacksonville by one point is a close one granted - but scoring only 6 pts isnt exactly lighting it up. And the arguement that jacksonvilles D is unpenetrable doesnt hold water in my book as they've only beaten buffalo and the banged up Tennessee team...

Comparably some the other 2-1 teams are :

Indy - Beat GB and Tennessee and only lost AT NE by 3. This is the team to beat IMO.

Baltimore - handily beat pitt and cinncy, though on the minus side they did drop their opener at cleveland

Oakland - beat buffalo and tampa (not great accomplishments but par for the course) AND played pitt tough AT pitt - which shows 3 consistent efforts...

Jets (2-0) weak schedule playing only cinncy and SD but if they beat miami and show another good performance it may be worth watching these guys.

Pitt - barely beat oakland at home (still won though), creamed at baltimore (lost maddox though), and did the bare minimum to beat miami (new QB).


So heres the result -
#1 - Jacksonville 3-0 (weak schedule thus far - I expect this to change in the near future)
#2 - New England (they've only played indy - but since indy is doing well NE gets the benefit of the doubt for now)
#3 - Indy (tougher schedule thus far than oakland but same record)
#4 - Oakland (most consistent effort so far despite weak schedule)
#5 - Baltimore (2 good wins - but one at home [pitt] and only a split on the road vs weak teams)
#6 - Jets (2 weak team wins - not much defense in the process = not good)
#7 - Pitt (2 wins [one close one at home - one vs a crappy team] and one bad loss (as a result of the maddox loss)
#8 - Denver (2 home wins vs aweful teams, and one road loss vs a team with no offense [granted it was only a 1 point loss - but that doesnt make up for the weakness of KC and SD])


You could debate that denver is better than pitt now that they dont have a QB but still yer debating whether or not the team is the 7th or 8th best of 16 teams in the AFC.

That said tampa is the worst of the worst in the NFC right now... and I agree that they should beat tampa.

whew am I done finally?

 

[jaypaw]

oren? no response?

 

[truelyhandicapping]

sorry jaypaw,


i like the jags today. looks like a good matchup to me.

i think by the end of the year the jags will be in the top five for defense.

jax held indy down last year to the low 20's, and that was there first year in the system, they have year under their belt and better players.

more experience for leftwich and jags, at home with confidence is ascary thing in the nfl.

hope baseball has been going well, and football looks like your on the + side. keep it up my brother.:howdy:

 

[jaypaw]

"jax held indy down last year to the low 20's"

Indy won that game by 10 points...

And thier offense certainly hasn't lost any of its punch - if anything they have gained as well.

In the game at Jacksonville Marvin Harrison was out for 3 quarters.

I'll give you home confidence - but you gotta admit you at least understand my reasoning.

Indy's D and the Jacksonville Offense are the worst in the league - but Indy's offense is without question the most explosive in the league and its not clear that Jacksonville's D is anywhere above the middle of the pack. They faced Buffalo Denver and Tennessee - and to their credit have allowed the second lowest points per game (second to seattle) at 9.3. Denver of the three has been scoring more this year - but Buffalo and tennessee are 4th to last and 10th to last in the NFL in terms of total yards - so keeping them to low scores isnt exactly rocket science.

Point being the jags D hasnt been tested - and this will be a test that they havent seen.

It is possible that they will pass the test and you may be right - but if Indy does get some points up its tough to argue that jacksonville has the capability of coming back.

GL