Wisconsin vs Purdue 10/13/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Wisconsin winning 57% of simulations, and Purdue 43% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Wisconsin commits fewer turnovers in 24% of simulations and they go on to win 73% when they take care of the ball. Purdue wins 54% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Montee Ball is averaging 112 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (42% chance) then he helps his team win 71%. Ralph Bolden is averaging 50 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (20% chance) then he helps his team win 60%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is PUR -1

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