Winning vs Push... Help me convince my brother

[SportsBetTracker]

Hopefully this won't start some flame war. But I don't even know how to argue this.

My brother and I are having a very hostile argument on what constitutes a "win" and a "push." This is in conjunction with the state lotto.

When a $1 is bet, there are some bets that return $1. Now, in my own mathematical world, that transaction resulted in a PUSH.

My brother is calling it a WIN, and this is where I disagree.

My brother says that because you paid the lotto seller one dollar, you have a ticket that may or may not win. So if that ticket wins ANY amount, it's called a win.

I tried to use the analogy about betting in Vegas. Someone puts down a dollar on the blackjack table, and both the player and the dealer get 17. My brother says that IS a push, because the money was not controlled by the house until the bet was graded. With the lotto, one would have to pay the lotto seller the buck for the ticket. Once the lotto numbers were picked, the ticket gets graded and if there is a $1 win, then the player "wins" a dollar.

My brother is usually a very rational person, and doesn't disagree that the transaction itself results in neither a profit or loss for the player. Nonetheless, he calls the ticket a "winning" ticket.

Frankly, I don't understand that logic. Let's say I'm the Lotto marketer, and I come up with an idea to pay out a dime for every losing ticket (adjusting the rest of the prize pool accordingly). Theoretically, one could market the lotto by saying EVERYONE GETS A WINNING TICKET!

So anyway, I can not convince him the ticket is not a winner, because it DOES have value. What is the best way to convince him?

(Look, I do database analysis for a living, with sports betting calculations as a strong sideline, so I'm aware of the math. I don't really know what the problem is with him, though, in vehemently calling the lotto ticket a "winning" ticket when the purchase price of that ticket is exactly the same as the return amount.)

 

[cincy_]

"Winning" is a term used by marketing people to make people feel good about the transaction. It's the reason auctioneers (like eBay) declare someone has "won" the auction when they agree to pay $50 for a shirt ... but they're not "a winner" if they buy it at Sears.

Winning isn't necessarily the same as a profit. You can show a loss and "win". You just have to be better off than you would have been. If I can get rid of a bunch of turkeys in January after the holiday season at a loss, I would still think of that as a "win" ... and that's how we have the term "win-win" ... which is implicitly stating that the transaction isn't a zero sum game.

So if your brother says he WON a dollar, he bought the ticket EXPECTING to lose and considers it a WIN when he breaks even.

What bothers me is the following:

Anyone who buys the ticket EXPECTING to lose and considers it a WIN when he breaks even must be complete moron to buy that ticket in the first place.

 

[cincy_]

Winning is like LUCKY.

If you get shot in the leg, you still might consider yourself lucky. You might feel that you are lucky to be alive. It's all about expected outcome vs. real outcome.

Now if you take into account that the expected value of $1 scratch tickets is close to 80 cents, getting a dollar back could technically be a win too.

 

[SportsBetTracker]

Now if you take into account that the expected value of $1 scratch tickets is close to 80 cents, getting a dollar back could technically be a win too.

Perfect analysis. Comparing it in that way justifies calling it a "winning" ticket.

But frankly, I still would rather not create labels. I would rather define the action and produce the result. And it can only be one of three outcomes: Win, lose, or draw (push). Period. So I guess it's a matter of perspective.

 

[cincy_]

So I guess it's a matter of perspective.

Yes ... winning is all perspective ... if you go into it thinking your dollar is gone, then a push is essentially a win.

I mean, if I go to Starbucks and pay for my coffee, did I win a cup of coffee when it's served? No ... because I EXPECT to get my coffee.

If I put down a dollar on scratch ticket, and if I feel like I have won when I "win" a dollar ... well that means I went in expecting to lose ... which begs the question, "Why was I moronic enough to buy a ticket in the first place?"

That being said, it's an accounting nightmare if you define it the way your brother does ... if he bought $1,000 worth of tickets and "won $1,000" by getting his money back, would he pay his taxes on his "gambling winnings"? Ask him that.

 

[BettingFoodStamps]

if he bought $1,000 worth of tickets and "won $1,000" by getting his money back, would he pay his taxes on his "gambling winnings"? Ask him that.

He can also write off his losses.