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St Louis at Seattle
Seattle suspended WR Koren Robinson for the Miami game in Week 11 for
violating team rules and the league suspended him for the following four
games for violating its substance-abuse policy. Robinson returned to the
lineup two weeks ago but he failed to catch a pass in that game and the
Seahawks didn't activate him for the regular-season finale because of
disciplinary reasons.
Now head coach Mike Holmgren will consult with his players' committee
before making a decision concerning Robinson's status for this game. While
Seattle will still have excellent depth at receiver should it bench
Robinson, he would be sorely missed. Robinson, who is averaging 16 yards
per catch, is the Seahawks' best big-play threat on the perimeter. They
simply won't be as effective opening up their underneath routes by
stretching St. Louis' defense vertically without him in the lineup.
That's important because WRs Darrell Jackson, Jerry Rice and Bobby Engram
are all at their best running short-to-intermediate routes. In the event
Robinson plays, expect Seattle to look for him downfield early in the
hopes of forcing the Rams' safeties to play a little deeper. This would
effectively create space for Jackson, Rice and Engram.
It's critical that Seattle's defensive linemen get their hands up when
they aren't going to get to QB Marc Bulger because it will increase their
chances of generating a turnover in three ways. The first is Bulger tends
to lose the strike zone when he doesn't set his feet, and obstructing
passing windows forces him to move around the pocket more often.
Secondly, Bulger will have to hold onto the ball a little longer while
trying to find a quality passing window. That will give the pass rush more
time to get to him and he has fumbled five times this year. Finally, the
Seahawks' defensive linemen getting their hands up could result in some
passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage. This could create some
jump-ball situations that give the linebacker corps and secondary a better
opportunity to make a play.
WistromSeattle RDE Grant Wistrom had hoped he would be able to return from
a knee injury that has forced him to miss the last three games, but he is
listed as doubtful and it's highly unlikely he plays. With Wistrom and DT
Marcus Tubbs, who has missed the last four games with an ankle injury, on
the sidelines the front four will have some problems holding its own
against the run. In addition, the lack of depth caused by their absences
could cause the Seahawks' defensive line to wear down over the course of
the game.
RB Shaun Alexander ruffled some feathers around the league when he made it
known that he was unhappy with finishing a yard behind Jets RB Curtis
Martin in the race for this year's rushing title. He was particularly
upset with a quarterback sneak call that put Seattle ahead late in the
fourth quarter.
The Seahawks need to avoid any distractions if they expect to beat St.
Louis for the first time this year, especially from the player who should
carry the bulk of the offensive workload. To the credit of Holmgren and
Alexander's teammates, Seattle did well to diffuse the situation by
downplaying it rather than allowing it to turn into a problem.
The transition from former Rams defensive coordinator Lovie Smith's
schemes to new defensive coordinator Larry Marmie's schemes has been
painful at times. However, players have gradually become more comfortable
with their roles and responsibilities, so it's should be no surprise that
St. Louis' defense has played far better in recent weeks.
With the Rams' defense playing with more confidence and making fewer
mistakes, the Seahawks won't get as many opportunities to make the big
play. They'll need to be consistent consequently and that could be a
problem. Seattle's receivers have dropped some passes they should have
caught and Matt Hasselbeck hasn't always found the open man this year.
JacksonIt's important the Seahawks get off to a strong start. St. Louis
beat Philadelphia and the Jets to get into the playoffs. Two recent wins
over playoff teams combined with Bulger playing at a high level and the
development of rookie RB Steven Jackson gives the Rams a great deal of
momentum coming in.
However, it's important to note that St. Louis finished the regular season
with a 2-6 road record and the Eagles rested several of their starters. If
Seattle can build an early lead and prevent Bulger from getting into a
rhythm, the Rams could quickly lose their swagger.
Look for the Seahawks to get physical with St. Louis' receivers. The Rams'
passing game is predicated on timing and there are times that Bulger
throws to spots on the field rather than the receiver. Seattle can disrupt
that timing by pressing the receivers at the line and that could cause
Bulger to make what appear-to-be errant throws.
The Seahawks' pass defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league in
terms of average yards allowed per game but only two teams have more
interceptions. In addition, Seattle has returned three interceptions for
touchdowns and Bulger has thrown 14 picks in 14 games. As a result, St.
Louis' offense must stay alert and be ready to play defense. The offensive
linemen, backs, tight ends and receivers must fight through blocks and
make sure to wrap the ball carrier up upon contact if and when Bulger
throws an interception.
The Rams didn't practice on Monday or Tuesday and head coach Mike Martz is
expected to modify the schedule for Friday. Martz obviously wants his
players to be as fresh as well as healthy as possible and he can afford to
give them some practice time off because of their familiarity with
Seattle. The Seahawks will also adjust their schedule, but they practiced
some on Tuesday and Holmgren made a point of mentioning the importance of
a good week of practice during his press conference on Tuesday.
MorrisFB Mack Strong is one of the best lead blockers in the league, but
he isn't very dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield, so Seattle
will line backup RB Maurice Morris up at fullback in certain passing
situations. Morris generally releases on a route into the flat and has the
second gear to turn the short gain into the big play.
Meanwhile, Alexander will usually wait to see if any defenders come free
before releasing into the flat in the opposite direction and he too is
very dangerous after the catch. It's imperative that St. Louis' outside
linebackers tackle well in the open field consequently.
The first part of this matchup discusses the Seahawks playing TE Jerramy
Stevens at receiver to mask their lack of size on the perimeter when they
get close to the goal line. One of the other ways Seattle will try to open
up its passing game in the red zone is running some three-receiver bunch
formations. At the snap of the ball all three receivers head in different
directions and the motion of the play could confuse the Rams. This
formation and routes could also cause defenders to run into one another.
The Seahawks did a terrible job of tackling last week and they'll have to
do a far better job of limiting St. Louis' production after contact.
However, that will be easier said than done. Jackson runs with great power
and the Rams' receivers excel at making defenders miss in the open field.
Special Teams
Last week Atlanta blocked one of Ken Walter's punts and Seattle's punt
cover unit has to make sure it doesn't release downfield too early. The
Seahawks can't afford to give St. Louis quality starting field position or
worse points by making a critical mistake on special teams.
St. Louis' special teams also finished the regular season on somewhat of a
down note, as Jets KOR Jerricho Cotchery returned a kickoff 94 yards for a
score. He also averaged 39.6 yards over five kickoff returns in that game.
Morris has been somewhat of a disappointment as a return man this year,
but he has the big-play ability to take advantage of any breakdowns in the
Rams' kickoff coverage.
Matchups
Seattle RB Shaun Alexander vs. St. Louis MLB Robert Thomas
Seattle ROT Floyd Womack vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little
St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. Seattle CB Ken Lucas
St. Louis ROT Blaine Saipaia vs. Seattle LDE Chike Okeafor
Seattle WR Darrell Jackson vs. St. Louis CB Jerametrius Butler
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 24
Jets at S.D.
Jets DE John Abraham (knee) has been practicing and is expected to play a
situational role in Saturday's game. Even if Abraham can only participate
on 15-20 plays, it will be an unexpected and much-needed boost for this
unit. The Jets' only legitimate pass-rushing weapon along the defensive
line during Abraham's absence has been LDE Shaun Ellis, who had three
sacks in the season finale versus the Rams.
EllisEllis certainly provides a mismatch against Chargers ROT Shane
Olivea, but because the Jets have very little complementary help, the
Chargers would be able to double team Ellis or at least shift their
blocking schemes his way. With a fresh Abraham on the field in certain
passing-down situations, the Chargers either will have to account for both
Ellis and Abraham on the perimeter, which should open up more room for DTs
Dewayne Robertson and Jason Ferguson while also creating more gaps for
Jonathan Vilma to blitz up the middle.
Building on the last point, getting front-four pressure on QB Drew Brees
will be one of the biggest keys for Jets' defense. TE Antonio Gates
demands more than single coverage. The Jets will need to press him with a
linebacker a good majority of the time at the line of scrimmage and then
give that linebacker (likely SLB Mark Brown) safety help over the top from
SS Reggie Tongue.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson also demands more respect as a receiver than most
running backs in the NFL, which is why the Jets will likely need to play a
lot of zone-underneath coverage with WLB Eric Barton and MLB Vilma
handling one-half responsibility. Because of how prevalent Gates and
Tomlinson are in the passing game, the Jets would be leaving their defense
extremely vulnerable if they got into a situation where they had to blitz
too much in order to get more consistent pressure on Brees.
Despite resting several key starters in last week's meaningless game, the
Chargers' wide receiver corps and return specialist group enter the
playoffs banged up. Keenan McCardell (hamstring), Tim Dwight (toe) and
Eric Parker (ribs) are all listed as questionable. Reche Caldwell (knee)
has obviously been out since October, which takes away from the depth of
the unit, as well. Robb Butler, a safety who has helped return kickoffs
down the stretch, should play but could be affected by a toe injury.
DwightThe team misses Dwight the most in the return game, as it simply
lacks the same explosive potential in that facet. Dwight is expected to
play on Saturday, but his role/effectiveness in the return game is very
much up in the air. It should be fine if McCardell and Parker are able to
play at a relatively high level because Kassim Osgood and TE/WR Ryan
Krause can provide good depth as sub-package contributors behind those
two. However, if McCardell and/or Parker fail to play to expectations or
if one or both is unable to finish the game, it would give the Jets'
much-maligned secondary a huge break.
The other situation the Chargers are dealing with is the flu that DE Igor
Olshansky has come down with. The rookie DE missed significant practice
time during the middle of the week and it is unknown how much that will
affect his playing time and/or effectiveness. Olshansky has been one of
the underrated players in the NFL this season, as his discipline, strength
and leverage versus the run have played a big part in the Chargers'
excellence versus the run.
If he isn't as dominant as he was during the second half of the regular
season, it will cause depth issues and force the smaller and less powerful
DeQuincy Scott into a role that he isn't cut out for. One thing is for
certain, playing a day early this week isn't working in Olshansky's favor.
Jets offensive coordinator Paul Hackett has to be more creative and
aggressive and his receivers have to respond with some big plays in the
vertical passing game. The Jets simply will not be able to rely on RB
Curtis Martin and the ground attack as much as they have become accustomed
to this season. The Chargers are aggressive in run support, they like to
blitz a lot, and they play a lot of press coverage on the perimeter with
CBs Quentin Jammer and Drayton Florence.
The Chargers aren't nearly as talented as the Eagles at cornerback or
effective in terms of their blitz package, but they play a similar scheme,
as they expect their cornerbacks to smother receivers at the line in order
to give the pass rush time to get to the quarterback. If the Jets don't
take more shots vertically early on and if QB Chad Pennington isn't able
to exploit the mismatches that WRs Santana Moss, Justin McCariens and
Wayne Chrebet represent, the Charger defense will continue to tighten as
the game progresses.
ChrebetChrebet's return to the lineup after missing time due to another
concussion shouldn't be overlooked. For starters, the Jets' lack of depth
is a glaring weakness. Teams with three and four talented receivers have
been most successful against the Chargers this season because that depth
at the position allows them to spread the Chargers out and to attack their
biggest area of concern, the secondary.
Secondly, the Jets seem to lack a go-to-presence in clutch situations
because Moss and McCareins still tend to disappear from games too often.
Chrebet doesn't offer much in terms of the vertical presence that
Pennington will need in order to stretch the Charger's aggressive defense
out vertically, but he is a security blanket for Pennington to target on
critical third-down situations.
The poor play of their offensive line has been a big reason for the Jets'
stumbles down the stretch of the regular season and it is a major concern
as the team prepares to take on one of the most underrated defensive front
sevens in the NFL. One thing that stands out on film is that this unit is
made of massive mauling types that lack great athleticism to begin with
and seem to be even more sluggish as they've worn down late in the season.
LOT Jason Fabini has struggled mightily in terms of pass protection and
with penalties the last two weeks, and ROB Brandon Moore hasn't been
nearly as efficient as he was in the middle of the season. The Jets gave
up six sacks versus the Rams last week and, if they don't do a better job
of communicating versus blitzes and stunts against an aggressive 3-4
scheme of the Chargers, Pennington could spend a lot more time on his back
this Saturday.
Special Teams
The Jets have a considerable edge on special teams and the emergence of
Jerricho Cotchery as a legitimate threat as a kickoff return specialist is
one of the reasons why. The rookie Cotchery was inconsistent when first
taking over the job, but he has made significant strides recently and had
a breakout game last week with a 94-yard touchdown return.
The Chargers have been inconsistent in terms of covering kicks and Nate
Kaeding's directional problems haven't helped. The team has turned to PT
Mike Scifres in that department, which has helped down the stretch.
However, if the Chargers aren't careful in this facet of special teams, it
will help the Jets keep things closer than they should be in this game.
With Tim Dwight unlikely to resume his role as the team's return
specialist in the playoffs, the Chargers don't have nearly the explosive
potential in the return game that the Jets possess. Eric Parker is
averaging just 8.8 yards per punt return and seems to be worn down with
his dual responsibility. The team is likely to continue with a committee
at the KOR position with Robb Butler and Jesse Chatman probably handling
most of the returns.
The Chargers still aren't great in the kicking game but they have at least
improved. Kaeding has connected on five of his last six field goal
attempts after missing four of his first 19 attempts on the season. He has
clearly settled in down the stretch, but it will be interesting to see how
he handles the pressure of kicking in his first NFL playoff game. Scrifes
has been much more consistent throughout the season, but he is also a
youngster (second year pro) kicking in his first NFL postseason.
The Jets don't have the strong legs that the Chargers possess in the
kicking game, but PT Toby Gowin and PK Doug Brien form a much more
experienced and reliable tandem. Brien has connected on 24 of 29 field
goal attempts on the season with a long of 53 yards. Gowin hasn't had
nearly as consistent of a season with an average of just 38.2 yards per
punt, but he is battle-tested and does possess very good directional
skills.
Matchups
San Diego TE Antonio Gates vs. N.Y. Jets SS Reggie Tongue
San Diego WR Eric Parker vs. N.Y. Jets RCB David Barrett
San Diego ROT Shane Olivea vs. N.Y. Jets LDE Shaun Ellis
N.Y. Jets WR Santana Moss vs. San Diego LCB Quentin Jammer
N.Y. Jets OC Kevin Mawae vs. San Diego NT Jamal Williams
Prediction: Chargers 23, Jets 17
Denver at Indy
There's good news and bad news for the Colts on the injury front. The good
news is that OG Rick DeMulling (ribs) should be back in the starting
lineup after missing three games and CBs Nick Harper (back) and Joseph
Jefferson (knee) will also be ready to play after they were held out of
action last week.
The bad news, however, is that it doesn't look like TE Dallas Clark will
be able to play following a concussion he suffered against the Broncos
last week. The Colts still have solid veteran Marcus Pollard to rely on at
the position, but Pollard isn't the vertical weapon that Clark is and,
without Clark, offensive coordinator Tom Moore won't be able to use the
two-tight end sets that he likes so much.
After QB Peyton Manning disassembled the Broncos' defense in this same
forum a year ago, the Broncos elected to focus on upgrading their defense,
most specifically with the trade of RB Clinton Portis for CB Champ Bailey.
One year later it's now time to see if that move paid off. The Broncos are
obviously huge underdogs but on paper they match up better defensively
than most teams.
Harrison
BaileyPerhaps the most important individual matchup is the one between WR
Marvin Harrison and Bailey. The Broncos need to move Bailey around and let
him mirror Harrison at all times. Bailey is used to playing on both sides
of the field so footwork should not be an issue. Even then, the Broncos
will need to account for Harrison's big-play capabilities with at least
one and often two safeties deep in case Harrison, Reggie Wayne or Brandon
Stokley gets over the top.
The Colts feed off of early scores because it forces opponents to abort
the run, which feeds into the athletic nature of Indy's defense. Giving up
a big play early in this game simply can't be an option for the Broncos.
Spreading the field with three-receiver sets and Pollard "flexed" out into
the slot has to be the Colts' primary initiative on Sunday. Denver has the
athletes at linebacker with Al Wilson and D.J. Williams to hold up better
than most in man coverage. The Broncos also have a potential advantage if
Bailey can do a good job of limiting Harrison in coverage. However, the
rest of the Denver secondary is a source of weakness that Manning can
exploit.
Wayne vs. RCB Kelly Herndon and Stokley vs. Roc Alexander are the two
biggest mismatches in the Colts' favor. Wayne's 71-yard touchdown last
week versus Denver was the longest of his career and his team will be
looking for more big plays from him this week because of the mismatch he
represents against Alexander. Also, by spreading the field horizontally
and vertically, it will prevent the Broncos from loading up versus
Edgerrin James and the running game, while also limiting the Broncos'
options when it comes to the blitz.
QB Jake Plummer is the player who will be under the brightest spotlight
for Denver in this game. The Broncos are obviously looking to slow down
the tempo with a strong dedication to the running attack, but in order to
keep drives going and to keep the Indianapolis defense honest, Plummer has
to be much more efficient than he was throughout the majority of the
regular season.
The Broncos have some mismatches in the passing game they can target with
WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, as well as with TE Jeb Putzier. They also
have an offensive line that has given up just 15 sacks this season and is
capable of protecting Plummer against a Colts front four that has quickly
developed into one of the most devastating pass-rushing groups in the NFL.
However, Plummer's poor accuracy and inconsistent decision-making skills
are what have to be concerning coach Mike Shanahan and his staff the most
right now.
If Plummer is unable to convert on third downs and if he isn't efficient
enough working against a Colts defense that is likely to be overzealous on
several occasions because of its "stop-the-run-first" mentality, the
Broncos will have no chance of keeping Manning & Co. off the field long
enough to stay within striking distance.
PutzierThe Broncos need a big game from Putzier, who improved as the
season has progressed and has become one of Plummer's favorite targets.
Putzier is an above average athlete with solid hands. He isn't a huge
vertical threat, but he does have enough speed to get down the seam and
stretch the field. Against a Colts defense that will split most of its
time between a cover-2 and cover-3 look, Putzier's role can't be
overstated.
When working against the cover-2 with two safeties splitting deep-middle
responsibility, Putzier must do a good job of getting down the field and
making his presence known. If the Colts' safeties are caught cheating
toward the sidelines, Putzier has to capitalize by finding the soft spot
down the middle between the middle linebacker and the safeties.
Against a cover-3 with SS Mike Doss cheated up, Putzier needs to exploit
Doss below-average man-to-man cover skills by using his quickness and
athleticism to gain separation. Conversely, if Putzier is unable to
provide consistency in the passing game for Denver, it will give the Colts
a lot more flexibility to be aggressive with their safeties in coverage
and in run support.
Special Teams
Denver's Jason Elam and Indianapolis' Mike Vanderjagt are two of the
league's elite place-kickers and they provide a lot of confidence and
stability for their respective teams as each heads into the playoffs. Elam
has been the more consistent of the two this season. He finished the
season strong, hitting all four of his field goal attempts against the
Colts last week. Elam has hit 10 of his last 11 and finished the regular
season 29-of-34 on FGAs.
VanderjagtVanderjagt wasn't as consistent as usual this season, as he hit
20 of 25 FGAs overall and also missed two of his final eight attempts down
the stretch. However, Vanderjagt does have a stronger leg than Elam and he
also has been a better "dome kicker" throughout his career, which makes
this a very even battle if it comes down to field goals.
After really struggling in the kickoff department, the Colts have
seemingly solved their problems in that department thanks to the upgrade
that Martin Gramatica has provided as the team's kickoff specialist.
Gramatica has shown good distance, hang time and directional skills on his
kickoffs, which has given the cover units a better opportunity to get
downfield and make a play.
With Gramatica upgrading the kickoff unit and PT Hunter Smith having
another brilliant season with an impressive 45.2-yard per-punt average,
the Colts should have no trouble keeping Denver rookie RS Triandos Luke in
check. Luke has been a pleasant surprise as a consistent and reliable
return man both on kickoffs and punt returns, but in all reality the
Broncos need an upgrade at both positions next season. Luke is sure-handed
and protects the ball well but he lacks home run potential. He is
averaging 20.4 yards per kickoff return with a long of only 32 yards and
7.1 yards per punt return with a long of just 21 yards.
The Colts have a chance to make an impact in the return game, as PR Brad
Pyatt and KOR Dominic Rhodes show much more explosive potential than Luke
flashes for the Broncos. Pyatt made a healthy return last week after
missing nearly the entire season because of injury. He looked a bit rusty
in his return and the team is likely to limit him to just punt returns on
Sunday, but he does have big-play speed if he catches a crease.
The other reason why the Colts will leave Pyatt off the kickoff return
team is because Rhodes is coming into his own. He started off slow but
finished with a late-season, 88-yard touchdown return and an overall
average of 24.8 yards per kickoff return. PT/KO Jason Baker, who struggled
with an average of just 39.4 yards per punt this season, will need to do a
much better job with his directional skills and accuracy on punts and
kickoffs in order to prevent a big return from Pyatt and/or Rhodes.
Matchups
Denver WR Ashley Lelie vs. Indianapolis LCB Nick Harper
Denver RBs Rueben Droughns and Tatum Bell vs. Indianapolis MLB Rob Morris
Denver LOT Matt Lepsis vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney
Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. Denver LCB Champ Bailey
Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. Denver MLB Al Wilson and WLB D.J.
Williams
Prediction: Colts 30, Broncos 17
Minnesota at G.B.
Minnesota has won just two of the last 22 games it has played outside and
head coach Mike Tice is holding portions of practice outside with that in
mind. The problem is the Vikings' outdoor practice facilities are frozen
over and they don't want to risk a player injuring himself by slipping or
slamming into the hard surface.
As a result, they only go outdoors for slow-tempo practices that focus on
teaching and alignments rather than timing and hitting. The hope is that
will be enough time for the players to get a little more used to playing
in the cold weather. It's also important to note that Green Bay benefits
from the scheduling of this game, as the sun should set and temperatures
should start to drop below freezing about an hour after kickoff.
MossTice did an excellent job of downplaying WR Randy Moss' decision to
head to the locker room with time still remaining on the clock last week,
but the damage has already been done. Moss showed a lack of faith in his
teammates and his actions suggested he only wants to be a part of the team
when it's successful.
Both meetings between these teams this year have come down to last-second
field goal attempts. It's highly unlikely Minnesota rolls over the Packers
and its ability to bounce back when it falls behind and/or makes a mistake
will be critical. Whether Moss likes it or not, his teammates look to him
as a leader and actions always speak louder than words, which makes his
lack of resiliency that much more disturbing.
Adam Goldberg was the Vikings' fourth player to line up at right tackle
this year and he has done an admirable job considering the circumstances.
However, he isn't ready for a starting role at this point of his career
and he clearly struggled last week.
The second-year tackle's ability to put that game behind him so he can
play with confidence this week is a concern, but there is reason to
believe he'll bounce back with a stronger performance. Goldberg faced
Green Bay's schemes and personnel two weeks ago, so he should be better
prepared to pick up line stunts as well as blitzes and has a better idea
of how certain players are going to attack him.
The first part of this matchup discusses Packers head coach Mike Sherman
not starting RDT Cletidus Hunt last week because Hunt wasn't playing at a
high enough level. Meanwhile, Hunt has said he didn't start because
Sherman was resting his legs and backup Cullen Jenkins played very well in
relief.
While Hunt should start because of his superior size and ability to hold
his ground against the run, look for Jenkins to see ample time in relief.
Jenkins is a little quicker and agile then Hunt, so it's important
Minnesota's offensive line recognizes when he comes into the game and
makes the necessary adjustments.
WinfieldOne important injury note worth mentioning is CB Antoine Winfield,
who has been slowed by an ankle sprain, isn't expected to wear the brace
he has been using over the past two games. If losing the brace makes him
more mobile and allows him to change directions quickly, the Vikings'
secondary should get a much-needed boost.
However, don't expect Green Bay to wait too long before testing Winfield.
If the injury continues to hinder him, the Packers could produce some big
plays and possibly jump out to a lead by throwing at him early. In
addition, Winfield's ankle should become more flexible as he warms up, so
he should be at his weakest early.
Look for Green Bay to bring pressure off the edge when it blitzes. This
will test Goldberg and LOT Bryant McKinnie, who will have the unenviable
task of trying to keep RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila out of the backfield most
of the day.
Attacking the perimeter of the protection will also put more pressure on
Minnesota offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to run more max-protect
schemes that keep a back and/or tight end to help out. The problem for
Linehan is RB Michael Bennett and TE Jermaine Wiggins are far better
receivers than they are pass blockers.
CB Brian Williams is the only Minnesota player who has recorded more
passes defended than DT Kevin Williams, who clearly does an excellent job
of getting his hands up in the passing windows. There are two ways the
Packers' offensive line can prevent Kevin Williams from tipping some
passes at the line of scrimmage. They can cut him so he has to bring his
hands down to protect his legs or they can try not to allow Williams
enough separation to jump or get his hands up.
Unfortunately for the Packers, both techniques require the offensive
linemen playing with a great deal of discipline. They must not cut
Williams while he is engaged with another offensive lineman or they will
be flagged for the chop block. In addition, they can't afford to be too
aggressive firing off the ball because that will create seams for other
defenders.
GreenMinnesota's offense has the weapons to keep pace with any team in the
league. The bad news is almost any offense in the league can keep pace
with the Vikings because their defense has been among the worst in the
league. However, Green Bay will open the door for Minnesota to get the win
if it doesn't protect the ball. As a result, QB Brett Favre must make
sound decisions under pressure and RB Ahman Green must practice good ball
control.
Tice has done an excellent job of managing his team and making sure
situations haven't developed into problems heading into this game, but the
Packers still receive the Scouts Inc. Advantage for coaching. Sherman has
already beaten Tice's Vikings twice this year and is 7-3 in the 10 games
he's coached against Minnesota. In addition, he took over the play-calling
duties midway through October and Green Bay has gone 9-2 since then.
Something that tends to get lost in Daunte Culpepper's impressive passing
numbers this year is he hasn't rushed for so few yards since taking over
as the Vikings' starting quarterback in 2000. In addition, this is the
first season since then that he hasn't recorded a run that has gone for 20
yards or longer.
If Minnesota is to win this game, Culpepper must force the Packers to
respect his ability to make the play with his feet. He needs to continue
to go though his reads but he must be willing to scramble when nothing is
available downfield.
Last week Vikings WR Nate Burleson dropped a pass that would have gone for
a long gain and could have resulted in a touchdown. The reason he dropped
the pass is he turned his head upfield before securing the ball. Whether
Burleson was trying to read the defense so he could make a cut or was
looking to locate the safety so he didn't get blind-sided is unclear.
However, Green Bay's safeties and linebackers can test the mental
toughness of Minnesota's receivers by delivering some big hits when they
try to go over the middle.
Numbers mean very little in the postseason and that's why Favre received
the Scouts Inc. Advantage despite the fact Culpepper has far better
statistics. Favre has shown he can make the clutch play, he has won a
Super Bowl and there is little questioning the confidence his teammates
have in him.
Special Teams
The last time the Packers played at home, PK Ryan Longwell missed a
31-yard field goal attempt wide right in a game Green Bay lost by three
points. Granted, the miss came in the first half and there is no way to
predict the way it would have affected the game had the ball gone through
the uprights. However, this should be a very close game so it's important
that Longwell takes advantage of any opportunities he gets to put points
on the board.
Last week the Vikings gave up a 66-yard return on the opening kickoff and
it gave the Redskins quality starting field position as well as momentum.
Minnesota can't afford to do the same this week, so its kickoff cover unit
must play with discipline and tackle well in the open field.
Matchups
Green Bay RB Ahman Green vs. Minnesota MLB E.J. Henderson
Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper vs. Green Bay FS Darren Sharper
Minnesota WR Nate Burleson vs. Green Bay CB Ahmad Carroll
Green Bay ROG Marco Rivera vs. Minnesota DT Kevin Williams
Green Bay TE Bubba Franks vs. Minnesota SS Willie Offord
Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24
MM
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St Louis at Seattle
Seattle suspended WR Koren Robinson for the Miami game in Week 11 for
violating team rules and the league suspended him for the following four
games for violating its substance-abuse policy. Robinson returned to the
lineup two weeks ago but he failed to catch a pass in that game and the
Seahawks didn't activate him for the regular-season finale because of
disciplinary reasons.
Now head coach Mike Holmgren will consult with his players' committee
before making a decision concerning Robinson's status for this game. While
Seattle will still have excellent depth at receiver should it bench
Robinson, he would be sorely missed. Robinson, who is averaging 16 yards
per catch, is the Seahawks' best big-play threat on the perimeter. They
simply won't be as effective opening up their underneath routes by
stretching St. Louis' defense vertically without him in the lineup.
That's important because WRs Darrell Jackson, Jerry Rice and Bobby Engram
are all at their best running short-to-intermediate routes. In the event
Robinson plays, expect Seattle to look for him downfield early in the
hopes of forcing the Rams' safeties to play a little deeper. This would
effectively create space for Jackson, Rice and Engram.
It's critical that Seattle's defensive linemen get their hands up when
they aren't going to get to QB Marc Bulger because it will increase their
chances of generating a turnover in three ways. The first is Bulger tends
to lose the strike zone when he doesn't set his feet, and obstructing
passing windows forces him to move around the pocket more often.
Secondly, Bulger will have to hold onto the ball a little longer while
trying to find a quality passing window. That will give the pass rush more
time to get to him and he has fumbled five times this year. Finally, the
Seahawks' defensive linemen getting their hands up could result in some
passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage. This could create some
jump-ball situations that give the linebacker corps and secondary a better
opportunity to make a play.
WistromSeattle RDE Grant Wistrom had hoped he would be able to return from
a knee injury that has forced him to miss the last three games, but he is
listed as doubtful and it's highly unlikely he plays. With Wistrom and DT
Marcus Tubbs, who has missed the last four games with an ankle injury, on
the sidelines the front four will have some problems holding its own
against the run. In addition, the lack of depth caused by their absences
could cause the Seahawks' defensive line to wear down over the course of
the game.
RB Shaun Alexander ruffled some feathers around the league when he made it
known that he was unhappy with finishing a yard behind Jets RB Curtis
Martin in the race for this year's rushing title. He was particularly
upset with a quarterback sneak call that put Seattle ahead late in the
fourth quarter.
The Seahawks need to avoid any distractions if they expect to beat St.
Louis for the first time this year, especially from the player who should
carry the bulk of the offensive workload. To the credit of Holmgren and
Alexander's teammates, Seattle did well to diffuse the situation by
downplaying it rather than allowing it to turn into a problem.
The transition from former Rams defensive coordinator Lovie Smith's
schemes to new defensive coordinator Larry Marmie's schemes has been
painful at times. However, players have gradually become more comfortable
with their roles and responsibilities, so it's should be no surprise that
St. Louis' defense has played far better in recent weeks.
With the Rams' defense playing with more confidence and making fewer
mistakes, the Seahawks won't get as many opportunities to make the big
play. They'll need to be consistent consequently and that could be a
problem. Seattle's receivers have dropped some passes they should have
caught and Matt Hasselbeck hasn't always found the open man this year.
JacksonIt's important the Seahawks get off to a strong start. St. Louis
beat Philadelphia and the Jets to get into the playoffs. Two recent wins
over playoff teams combined with Bulger playing at a high level and the
development of rookie RB Steven Jackson gives the Rams a great deal of
momentum coming in.
However, it's important to note that St. Louis finished the regular season
with a 2-6 road record and the Eagles rested several of their starters. If
Seattle can build an early lead and prevent Bulger from getting into a
rhythm, the Rams could quickly lose their swagger.
Look for the Seahawks to get physical with St. Louis' receivers. The Rams'
passing game is predicated on timing and there are times that Bulger
throws to spots on the field rather than the receiver. Seattle can disrupt
that timing by pressing the receivers at the line and that could cause
Bulger to make what appear-to-be errant throws.
The Seahawks' pass defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league in
terms of average yards allowed per game but only two teams have more
interceptions. In addition, Seattle has returned three interceptions for
touchdowns and Bulger has thrown 14 picks in 14 games. As a result, St.
Louis' offense must stay alert and be ready to play defense. The offensive
linemen, backs, tight ends and receivers must fight through blocks and
make sure to wrap the ball carrier up upon contact if and when Bulger
throws an interception.
The Rams didn't practice on Monday or Tuesday and head coach Mike Martz is
expected to modify the schedule for Friday. Martz obviously wants his
players to be as fresh as well as healthy as possible and he can afford to
give them some practice time off because of their familiarity with
Seattle. The Seahawks will also adjust their schedule, but they practiced
some on Tuesday and Holmgren made a point of mentioning the importance of
a good week of practice during his press conference on Tuesday.
MorrisFB Mack Strong is one of the best lead blockers in the league, but
he isn't very dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield, so Seattle
will line backup RB Maurice Morris up at fullback in certain passing
situations. Morris generally releases on a route into the flat and has the
second gear to turn the short gain into the big play.
Meanwhile, Alexander will usually wait to see if any defenders come free
before releasing into the flat in the opposite direction and he too is
very dangerous after the catch. It's imperative that St. Louis' outside
linebackers tackle well in the open field consequently.
The first part of this matchup discusses the Seahawks playing TE Jerramy
Stevens at receiver to mask their lack of size on the perimeter when they
get close to the goal line. One of the other ways Seattle will try to open
up its passing game in the red zone is running some three-receiver bunch
formations. At the snap of the ball all three receivers head in different
directions and the motion of the play could confuse the Rams. This
formation and routes could also cause defenders to run into one another.
The Seahawks did a terrible job of tackling last week and they'll have to
do a far better job of limiting St. Louis' production after contact.
However, that will be easier said than done. Jackson runs with great power
and the Rams' receivers excel at making defenders miss in the open field.
Special Teams
Last week Atlanta blocked one of Ken Walter's punts and Seattle's punt
cover unit has to make sure it doesn't release downfield too early. The
Seahawks can't afford to give St. Louis quality starting field position or
worse points by making a critical mistake on special teams.
St. Louis' special teams also finished the regular season on somewhat of a
down note, as Jets KOR Jerricho Cotchery returned a kickoff 94 yards for a
score. He also averaged 39.6 yards over five kickoff returns in that game.
Morris has been somewhat of a disappointment as a return man this year,
but he has the big-play ability to take advantage of any breakdowns in the
Rams' kickoff coverage.
Matchups
Seattle RB Shaun Alexander vs. St. Louis MLB Robert Thomas
Seattle ROT Floyd Womack vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little
St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. Seattle CB Ken Lucas
St. Louis ROT Blaine Saipaia vs. Seattle LDE Chike Okeafor
Seattle WR Darrell Jackson vs. St. Louis CB Jerametrius Butler
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 24
Jets at S.D.
Jets DE John Abraham (knee) has been practicing and is expected to play a
situational role in Saturday's game. Even if Abraham can only participate
on 15-20 plays, it will be an unexpected and much-needed boost for this
unit. The Jets' only legitimate pass-rushing weapon along the defensive
line during Abraham's absence has been LDE Shaun Ellis, who had three
sacks in the season finale versus the Rams.
EllisEllis certainly provides a mismatch against Chargers ROT Shane
Olivea, but because the Jets have very little complementary help, the
Chargers would be able to double team Ellis or at least shift their
blocking schemes his way. With a fresh Abraham on the field in certain
passing-down situations, the Chargers either will have to account for both
Ellis and Abraham on the perimeter, which should open up more room for DTs
Dewayne Robertson and Jason Ferguson while also creating more gaps for
Jonathan Vilma to blitz up the middle.
Building on the last point, getting front-four pressure on QB Drew Brees
will be one of the biggest keys for Jets' defense. TE Antonio Gates
demands more than single coverage. The Jets will need to press him with a
linebacker a good majority of the time at the line of scrimmage and then
give that linebacker (likely SLB Mark Brown) safety help over the top from
SS Reggie Tongue.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson also demands more respect as a receiver than most
running backs in the NFL, which is why the Jets will likely need to play a
lot of zone-underneath coverage with WLB Eric Barton and MLB Vilma
handling one-half responsibility. Because of how prevalent Gates and
Tomlinson are in the passing game, the Jets would be leaving their defense
extremely vulnerable if they got into a situation where they had to blitz
too much in order to get more consistent pressure on Brees.
Despite resting several key starters in last week's meaningless game, the
Chargers' wide receiver corps and return specialist group enter the
playoffs banged up. Keenan McCardell (hamstring), Tim Dwight (toe) and
Eric Parker (ribs) are all listed as questionable. Reche Caldwell (knee)
has obviously been out since October, which takes away from the depth of
the unit, as well. Robb Butler, a safety who has helped return kickoffs
down the stretch, should play but could be affected by a toe injury.
DwightThe team misses Dwight the most in the return game, as it simply
lacks the same explosive potential in that facet. Dwight is expected to
play on Saturday, but his role/effectiveness in the return game is very
much up in the air. It should be fine if McCardell and Parker are able to
play at a relatively high level because Kassim Osgood and TE/WR Ryan
Krause can provide good depth as sub-package contributors behind those
two. However, if McCardell and/or Parker fail to play to expectations or
if one or both is unable to finish the game, it would give the Jets'
much-maligned secondary a huge break.
The other situation the Chargers are dealing with is the flu that DE Igor
Olshansky has come down with. The rookie DE missed significant practice
time during the middle of the week and it is unknown how much that will
affect his playing time and/or effectiveness. Olshansky has been one of
the underrated players in the NFL this season, as his discipline, strength
and leverage versus the run have played a big part in the Chargers'
excellence versus the run.
If he isn't as dominant as he was during the second half of the regular
season, it will cause depth issues and force the smaller and less powerful
DeQuincy Scott into a role that he isn't cut out for. One thing is for
certain, playing a day early this week isn't working in Olshansky's favor.
Jets offensive coordinator Paul Hackett has to be more creative and
aggressive and his receivers have to respond with some big plays in the
vertical passing game. The Jets simply will not be able to rely on RB
Curtis Martin and the ground attack as much as they have become accustomed
to this season. The Chargers are aggressive in run support, they like to
blitz a lot, and they play a lot of press coverage on the perimeter with
CBs Quentin Jammer and Drayton Florence.
The Chargers aren't nearly as talented as the Eagles at cornerback or
effective in terms of their blitz package, but they play a similar scheme,
as they expect their cornerbacks to smother receivers at the line in order
to give the pass rush time to get to the quarterback. If the Jets don't
take more shots vertically early on and if QB Chad Pennington isn't able
to exploit the mismatches that WRs Santana Moss, Justin McCariens and
Wayne Chrebet represent, the Charger defense will continue to tighten as
the game progresses.
ChrebetChrebet's return to the lineup after missing time due to another
concussion shouldn't be overlooked. For starters, the Jets' lack of depth
is a glaring weakness. Teams with three and four talented receivers have
been most successful against the Chargers this season because that depth
at the position allows them to spread the Chargers out and to attack their
biggest area of concern, the secondary.
Secondly, the Jets seem to lack a go-to-presence in clutch situations
because Moss and McCareins still tend to disappear from games too often.
Chrebet doesn't offer much in terms of the vertical presence that
Pennington will need in order to stretch the Charger's aggressive defense
out vertically, but he is a security blanket for Pennington to target on
critical third-down situations.
The poor play of their offensive line has been a big reason for the Jets'
stumbles down the stretch of the regular season and it is a major concern
as the team prepares to take on one of the most underrated defensive front
sevens in the NFL. One thing that stands out on film is that this unit is
made of massive mauling types that lack great athleticism to begin with
and seem to be even more sluggish as they've worn down late in the season.
LOT Jason Fabini has struggled mightily in terms of pass protection and
with penalties the last two weeks, and ROB Brandon Moore hasn't been
nearly as efficient as he was in the middle of the season. The Jets gave
up six sacks versus the Rams last week and, if they don't do a better job
of communicating versus blitzes and stunts against an aggressive 3-4
scheme of the Chargers, Pennington could spend a lot more time on his back
this Saturday.
Special Teams
The Jets have a considerable edge on special teams and the emergence of
Jerricho Cotchery as a legitimate threat as a kickoff return specialist is
one of the reasons why. The rookie Cotchery was inconsistent when first
taking over the job, but he has made significant strides recently and had
a breakout game last week with a 94-yard touchdown return.
The Chargers have been inconsistent in terms of covering kicks and Nate
Kaeding's directional problems haven't helped. The team has turned to PT
Mike Scifres in that department, which has helped down the stretch.
However, if the Chargers aren't careful in this facet of special teams, it
will help the Jets keep things closer than they should be in this game.
With Tim Dwight unlikely to resume his role as the team's return
specialist in the playoffs, the Chargers don't have nearly the explosive
potential in the return game that the Jets possess. Eric Parker is
averaging just 8.8 yards per punt return and seems to be worn down with
his dual responsibility. The team is likely to continue with a committee
at the KOR position with Robb Butler and Jesse Chatman probably handling
most of the returns.
The Chargers still aren't great in the kicking game but they have at least
improved. Kaeding has connected on five of his last six field goal
attempts after missing four of his first 19 attempts on the season. He has
clearly settled in down the stretch, but it will be interesting to see how
he handles the pressure of kicking in his first NFL playoff game. Scrifes
has been much more consistent throughout the season, but he is also a
youngster (second year pro) kicking in his first NFL postseason.
The Jets don't have the strong legs that the Chargers possess in the
kicking game, but PT Toby Gowin and PK Doug Brien form a much more
experienced and reliable tandem. Brien has connected on 24 of 29 field
goal attempts on the season with a long of 53 yards. Gowin hasn't had
nearly as consistent of a season with an average of just 38.2 yards per
punt, but he is battle-tested and does possess very good directional
skills.
Matchups
San Diego TE Antonio Gates vs. N.Y. Jets SS Reggie Tongue
San Diego WR Eric Parker vs. N.Y. Jets RCB David Barrett
San Diego ROT Shane Olivea vs. N.Y. Jets LDE Shaun Ellis
N.Y. Jets WR Santana Moss vs. San Diego LCB Quentin Jammer
N.Y. Jets OC Kevin Mawae vs. San Diego NT Jamal Williams
Prediction: Chargers 23, Jets 17
Denver at Indy
There's good news and bad news for the Colts on the injury front. The good
news is that OG Rick DeMulling (ribs) should be back in the starting
lineup after missing three games and CBs Nick Harper (back) and Joseph
Jefferson (knee) will also be ready to play after they were held out of
action last week.
The bad news, however, is that it doesn't look like TE Dallas Clark will
be able to play following a concussion he suffered against the Broncos
last week. The Colts still have solid veteran Marcus Pollard to rely on at
the position, but Pollard isn't the vertical weapon that Clark is and,
without Clark, offensive coordinator Tom Moore won't be able to use the
two-tight end sets that he likes so much.
After QB Peyton Manning disassembled the Broncos' defense in this same
forum a year ago, the Broncos elected to focus on upgrading their defense,
most specifically with the trade of RB Clinton Portis for CB Champ Bailey.
One year later it's now time to see if that move paid off. The Broncos are
obviously huge underdogs but on paper they match up better defensively
than most teams.
Harrison
BaileyPerhaps the most important individual matchup is the one between WR
Marvin Harrison and Bailey. The Broncos need to move Bailey around and let
him mirror Harrison at all times. Bailey is used to playing on both sides
of the field so footwork should not be an issue. Even then, the Broncos
will need to account for Harrison's big-play capabilities with at least
one and often two safeties deep in case Harrison, Reggie Wayne or Brandon
Stokley gets over the top.
The Colts feed off of early scores because it forces opponents to abort
the run, which feeds into the athletic nature of Indy's defense. Giving up
a big play early in this game simply can't be an option for the Broncos.
Spreading the field with three-receiver sets and Pollard "flexed" out into
the slot has to be the Colts' primary initiative on Sunday. Denver has the
athletes at linebacker with Al Wilson and D.J. Williams to hold up better
than most in man coverage. The Broncos also have a potential advantage if
Bailey can do a good job of limiting Harrison in coverage. However, the
rest of the Denver secondary is a source of weakness that Manning can
exploit.
Wayne vs. RCB Kelly Herndon and Stokley vs. Roc Alexander are the two
biggest mismatches in the Colts' favor. Wayne's 71-yard touchdown last
week versus Denver was the longest of his career and his team will be
looking for more big plays from him this week because of the mismatch he
represents against Alexander. Also, by spreading the field horizontally
and vertically, it will prevent the Broncos from loading up versus
Edgerrin James and the running game, while also limiting the Broncos'
options when it comes to the blitz.
QB Jake Plummer is the player who will be under the brightest spotlight
for Denver in this game. The Broncos are obviously looking to slow down
the tempo with a strong dedication to the running attack, but in order to
keep drives going and to keep the Indianapolis defense honest, Plummer has
to be much more efficient than he was throughout the majority of the
regular season.
The Broncos have some mismatches in the passing game they can target with
WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, as well as with TE Jeb Putzier. They also
have an offensive line that has given up just 15 sacks this season and is
capable of protecting Plummer against a Colts front four that has quickly
developed into one of the most devastating pass-rushing groups in the NFL.
However, Plummer's poor accuracy and inconsistent decision-making skills
are what have to be concerning coach Mike Shanahan and his staff the most
right now.
If Plummer is unable to convert on third downs and if he isn't efficient
enough working against a Colts defense that is likely to be overzealous on
several occasions because of its "stop-the-run-first" mentality, the
Broncos will have no chance of keeping Manning & Co. off the field long
enough to stay within striking distance.
PutzierThe Broncos need a big game from Putzier, who improved as the
season has progressed and has become one of Plummer's favorite targets.
Putzier is an above average athlete with solid hands. He isn't a huge
vertical threat, but he does have enough speed to get down the seam and
stretch the field. Against a Colts defense that will split most of its
time between a cover-2 and cover-3 look, Putzier's role can't be
overstated.
When working against the cover-2 with two safeties splitting deep-middle
responsibility, Putzier must do a good job of getting down the field and
making his presence known. If the Colts' safeties are caught cheating
toward the sidelines, Putzier has to capitalize by finding the soft spot
down the middle between the middle linebacker and the safeties.
Against a cover-3 with SS Mike Doss cheated up, Putzier needs to exploit
Doss below-average man-to-man cover skills by using his quickness and
athleticism to gain separation. Conversely, if Putzier is unable to
provide consistency in the passing game for Denver, it will give the Colts
a lot more flexibility to be aggressive with their safeties in coverage
and in run support.
Special Teams
Denver's Jason Elam and Indianapolis' Mike Vanderjagt are two of the
league's elite place-kickers and they provide a lot of confidence and
stability for their respective teams as each heads into the playoffs. Elam
has been the more consistent of the two this season. He finished the
season strong, hitting all four of his field goal attempts against the
Colts last week. Elam has hit 10 of his last 11 and finished the regular
season 29-of-34 on FGAs.
VanderjagtVanderjagt wasn't as consistent as usual this season, as he hit
20 of 25 FGAs overall and also missed two of his final eight attempts down
the stretch. However, Vanderjagt does have a stronger leg than Elam and he
also has been a better "dome kicker" throughout his career, which makes
this a very even battle if it comes down to field goals.
After really struggling in the kickoff department, the Colts have
seemingly solved their problems in that department thanks to the upgrade
that Martin Gramatica has provided as the team's kickoff specialist.
Gramatica has shown good distance, hang time and directional skills on his
kickoffs, which has given the cover units a better opportunity to get
downfield and make a play.
With Gramatica upgrading the kickoff unit and PT Hunter Smith having
another brilliant season with an impressive 45.2-yard per-punt average,
the Colts should have no trouble keeping Denver rookie RS Triandos Luke in
check. Luke has been a pleasant surprise as a consistent and reliable
return man both on kickoffs and punt returns, but in all reality the
Broncos need an upgrade at both positions next season. Luke is sure-handed
and protects the ball well but he lacks home run potential. He is
averaging 20.4 yards per kickoff return with a long of only 32 yards and
7.1 yards per punt return with a long of just 21 yards.
The Colts have a chance to make an impact in the return game, as PR Brad
Pyatt and KOR Dominic Rhodes show much more explosive potential than Luke
flashes for the Broncos. Pyatt made a healthy return last week after
missing nearly the entire season because of injury. He looked a bit rusty
in his return and the team is likely to limit him to just punt returns on
Sunday, but he does have big-play speed if he catches a crease.
The other reason why the Colts will leave Pyatt off the kickoff return
team is because Rhodes is coming into his own. He started off slow but
finished with a late-season, 88-yard touchdown return and an overall
average of 24.8 yards per kickoff return. PT/KO Jason Baker, who struggled
with an average of just 39.4 yards per punt this season, will need to do a
much better job with his directional skills and accuracy on punts and
kickoffs in order to prevent a big return from Pyatt and/or Rhodes.
Matchups
Denver WR Ashley Lelie vs. Indianapolis LCB Nick Harper
Denver RBs Rueben Droughns and Tatum Bell vs. Indianapolis MLB Rob Morris
Denver LOT Matt Lepsis vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney
Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. Denver LCB Champ Bailey
Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. Denver MLB Al Wilson and WLB D.J.
Williams
Prediction: Colts 30, Broncos 17
Minnesota at G.B.
Minnesota has won just two of the last 22 games it has played outside and
head coach Mike Tice is holding portions of practice outside with that in
mind. The problem is the Vikings' outdoor practice facilities are frozen
over and they don't want to risk a player injuring himself by slipping or
slamming into the hard surface.
As a result, they only go outdoors for slow-tempo practices that focus on
teaching and alignments rather than timing and hitting. The hope is that
will be enough time for the players to get a little more used to playing
in the cold weather. It's also important to note that Green Bay benefits
from the scheduling of this game, as the sun should set and temperatures
should start to drop below freezing about an hour after kickoff.
MossTice did an excellent job of downplaying WR Randy Moss' decision to
head to the locker room with time still remaining on the clock last week,
but the damage has already been done. Moss showed a lack of faith in his
teammates and his actions suggested he only wants to be a part of the team
when it's successful.
Both meetings between these teams this year have come down to last-second
field goal attempts. It's highly unlikely Minnesota rolls over the Packers
and its ability to bounce back when it falls behind and/or makes a mistake
will be critical. Whether Moss likes it or not, his teammates look to him
as a leader and actions always speak louder than words, which makes his
lack of resiliency that much more disturbing.
Adam Goldberg was the Vikings' fourth player to line up at right tackle
this year and he has done an admirable job considering the circumstances.
However, he isn't ready for a starting role at this point of his career
and he clearly struggled last week.
The second-year tackle's ability to put that game behind him so he can
play with confidence this week is a concern, but there is reason to
believe he'll bounce back with a stronger performance. Goldberg faced
Green Bay's schemes and personnel two weeks ago, so he should be better
prepared to pick up line stunts as well as blitzes and has a better idea
of how certain players are going to attack him.
The first part of this matchup discusses Packers head coach Mike Sherman
not starting RDT Cletidus Hunt last week because Hunt wasn't playing at a
high enough level. Meanwhile, Hunt has said he didn't start because
Sherman was resting his legs and backup Cullen Jenkins played very well in
relief.
While Hunt should start because of his superior size and ability to hold
his ground against the run, look for Jenkins to see ample time in relief.
Jenkins is a little quicker and agile then Hunt, so it's important
Minnesota's offensive line recognizes when he comes into the game and
makes the necessary adjustments.
WinfieldOne important injury note worth mentioning is CB Antoine Winfield,
who has been slowed by an ankle sprain, isn't expected to wear the brace
he has been using over the past two games. If losing the brace makes him
more mobile and allows him to change directions quickly, the Vikings'
secondary should get a much-needed boost.
However, don't expect Green Bay to wait too long before testing Winfield.
If the injury continues to hinder him, the Packers could produce some big
plays and possibly jump out to a lead by throwing at him early. In
addition, Winfield's ankle should become more flexible as he warms up, so
he should be at his weakest early.
Look for Green Bay to bring pressure off the edge when it blitzes. This
will test Goldberg and LOT Bryant McKinnie, who will have the unenviable
task of trying to keep RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila out of the backfield most
of the day.
Attacking the perimeter of the protection will also put more pressure on
Minnesota offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to run more max-protect
schemes that keep a back and/or tight end to help out. The problem for
Linehan is RB Michael Bennett and TE Jermaine Wiggins are far better
receivers than they are pass blockers.
CB Brian Williams is the only Minnesota player who has recorded more
passes defended than DT Kevin Williams, who clearly does an excellent job
of getting his hands up in the passing windows. There are two ways the
Packers' offensive line can prevent Kevin Williams from tipping some
passes at the line of scrimmage. They can cut him so he has to bring his
hands down to protect his legs or they can try not to allow Williams
enough separation to jump or get his hands up.
Unfortunately for the Packers, both techniques require the offensive
linemen playing with a great deal of discipline. They must not cut
Williams while he is engaged with another offensive lineman or they will
be flagged for the chop block. In addition, they can't afford to be too
aggressive firing off the ball because that will create seams for other
defenders.
GreenMinnesota's offense has the weapons to keep pace with any team in the
league. The bad news is almost any offense in the league can keep pace
with the Vikings because their defense has been among the worst in the
league. However, Green Bay will open the door for Minnesota to get the win
if it doesn't protect the ball. As a result, QB Brett Favre must make
sound decisions under pressure and RB Ahman Green must practice good ball
control.
Tice has done an excellent job of managing his team and making sure
situations haven't developed into problems heading into this game, but the
Packers still receive the Scouts Inc. Advantage for coaching. Sherman has
already beaten Tice's Vikings twice this year and is 7-3 in the 10 games
he's coached against Minnesota. In addition, he took over the play-calling
duties midway through October and Green Bay has gone 9-2 since then.
Something that tends to get lost in Daunte Culpepper's impressive passing
numbers this year is he hasn't rushed for so few yards since taking over
as the Vikings' starting quarterback in 2000. In addition, this is the
first season since then that he hasn't recorded a run that has gone for 20
yards or longer.
If Minnesota is to win this game, Culpepper must force the Packers to
respect his ability to make the play with his feet. He needs to continue
to go though his reads but he must be willing to scramble when nothing is
available downfield.
Last week Vikings WR Nate Burleson dropped a pass that would have gone for
a long gain and could have resulted in a touchdown. The reason he dropped
the pass is he turned his head upfield before securing the ball. Whether
Burleson was trying to read the defense so he could make a cut or was
looking to locate the safety so he didn't get blind-sided is unclear.
However, Green Bay's safeties and linebackers can test the mental
toughness of Minnesota's receivers by delivering some big hits when they
try to go over the middle.
Numbers mean very little in the postseason and that's why Favre received
the Scouts Inc. Advantage despite the fact Culpepper has far better
statistics. Favre has shown he can make the clutch play, he has won a
Super Bowl and there is little questioning the confidence his teammates
have in him.
Special Teams
The last time the Packers played at home, PK Ryan Longwell missed a
31-yard field goal attempt wide right in a game Green Bay lost by three
points. Granted, the miss came in the first half and there is no way to
predict the way it would have affected the game had the ball gone through
the uprights. However, this should be a very close game so it's important
that Longwell takes advantage of any opportunities he gets to put points
on the board.
Last week the Vikings gave up a 66-yard return on the opening kickoff and
it gave the Redskins quality starting field position as well as momentum.
Minnesota can't afford to do the same this week, so its kickoff cover unit
must play with discipline and tackle well in the open field.
Matchups
Green Bay RB Ahman Green vs. Minnesota MLB E.J. Henderson
Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper vs. Green Bay FS Darren Sharper
Minnesota WR Nate Burleson vs. Green Bay CB Ahmad Carroll
Green Bay ROG Marco Rivera vs. Minnesota DT Kevin Williams
Green Bay TE Bubba Franks vs. Minnesota SS Willie Offord
Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24
