Well Said !!!
"... But the one game that no one can argue, the one game that no moral victory was to be had, was the October 19th loss to the Baltimore Ravens. To die hard Dolphin fans that game was nothing more than an extremely rude wake up call (kind of like getting woken up with a baseball bat). " :missingte
"... two incredible linebackers (Pro Bowler Ray Lewis and Bart Scott) that combined for 199 tackles, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions will be free to fly to the ball, inflict pain and create general chaos." :missingte:missingte
"...It seems unfathomable to me that Penning will remain upright in this contest..." :missingte:missingte:missingte:
Thus, I am considering the following 3 Team 9 Point Teaser with my local :
BALTIMORE + 6
BAL/MIA UN 43
INDIANAPOLIS +8
What d'y'all tink ? :think2:
"... But the one game that no one can argue, the one game that no moral victory was to be had, was the October 19th loss to the Baltimore Ravens. To die hard Dolphin fans that game was nothing more than an extremely rude wake up call (kind of like getting woken up with a baseball bat). " :missingte
"... two incredible linebackers (Pro Bowler Ray Lewis and Bart Scott) that combined for 199 tackles, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions will be free to fly to the ball, inflict pain and create general chaos." :missingte:missingte
"...It seems unfathomable to me that Penning will remain upright in this contest..." :missingte:missingte:missingte:
Thus, I am considering the following 3 Team 9 Point Teaser with my local :
BALTIMORE + 6
BAL/MIA UN 43
INDIANAPOLIS +8
What d'y'all tink ? :think2:
What is your point with this? Do you think that I am not aware of the public percetanges? And more importantly, do you actually base all of your bets off of such things? I would neither play a team due to a percentage, nor would I not play a team based on a percentage. If I cap a game and feel the side will win, then that's how it goes. I am not going to change my mind because of the public percentage.
I agree Sean. Everything points to exactly what you are saying about the favorites being the proper side and makes it very clear why these team are indeed the favorites here. But, being that this is an "Any Given Sunday" league, I am sure there is a decent chance that one of my three plays is upset somehow. Hopefully no more than one though! I want all three but will take two out of three if need be.
BOL with all your Wild Card action buddy!
LOL - glad you liked a few portions of my write-ups. :toast:
Obviously (based on my plays) I am going to tell you that I love the BAL and IND portions of that teaser. And although I personally have not reached any hard core leans one way or the other on the BAL Total, I have seen a lot of decent cappers indicating that this one could be a bit higher scoring than people might think. I want to look into this angle a bit more before I pass judgement one way or the other.....but I just wanted to make you aware of that. Perhaps you could push the IND or BAL side down and increase the BAL Total more if you are bound and determined to include that as a part of your teaser. But regardless of you decide, BOL with you teaser DK!
Had a busier day than expected, but came across a couple trends that favor our leans.
Home dogs in the first round of the playoffs are 1-6 SU and ATS since 2000. The win was DET over the Cowboys in 2001 15-10.
Another is playoff teams with 3 or more 20+ wins during the regular season vs. an opponent with less than 3 has been covering around 66% since 94.
Baltimore 4.
Miami 1.
Home dogs in the first round of the playoffs are 1-6 SU and ATS since 2000. The win was DET over the Cowboys in 2001 15-10.
Another is playoff teams with 3 or more 20+ wins during the regular season vs. an opponent with less than 3 has been covering around 66% since 94.
Baltimore 4.
Miami 1.
Oops. Looks like I'm a day late...
Someone else on the board already posted the 3 20+ point win trend. Oh well.
And, in case you're wondering, I'm on a pretty good roll right now with bowls. Had Georgia and SC yesterday, and hit my "big" play earlier today with Ole Miss. Gives me a little more $ to work with this weekend.
SDS, I always enjoy your writeups, and I apologize for this being a bit wordy.
This is a truly strange week. I don't recall ever seeing the 4 road warrior wild card teams, favored over the division winners.
I like Ind, Bal, Atl and Phil. I haven't finalized my wagers, I'm glad you are thinking along the same lines.
Atl- Yes Atl qb is a rookie, but he sure doesn't play like one. More importantly, in Atl's offense, the run is king. He manages the offense, passing when the defense over plays the run. Warner can be cool, calm and collected or a nervous nellie. I'm glad he's having a good year, but it wasn't that long ago when he was almost out of the NFL. Chronic hand injuries prevented him from hanging on to the bal.
Bal-For years we have thought of Bal as that team with a killer defense, and just enough offense to get by. Not any more. Like Atl, another team with stud young qb. From week 6 on Bal scored more points than any other offense (this came up wk 15 or 16, I'm assuming its still true).
Bal's line off, the cumulative total of all the game margins is by far the highest of any of the 8 teams playing this weekend...+134. (line off if a team is favored to win by 4 and actually wins by 10, their line off is +6)
Bal +134 (Bal is a net +111.5 high for the week)
Mia +22.5
Atl +68.5
Arz -29.5
Ind +4.5
SD +14.5
Phl +56.5
Min +20.5
The one stat the correlates best with ats wins is the net giveaway/takeaway.
Bal +13....Mia +17.....the 2 best numbers in the post season. Mia's better but probably not enough to overcome Bal's LO edge.
Ind+9....SD+4
Atl-3.....Arz 0
Phl+3.....Min-6 Phl net +9, largest gap this week!
Indy is probably my strongest play. Two reasons, SD has injuries to the heart of their offense. In fact both teams are dinged up pretty good.
Second and IMHO, the larger factor is the (lack of) maturity of SD's QB. Omitting the 6 syllable words and using todays vernacular, Rivers is a punk. Million dollar arm, 10 cent psyche up against one of the tougher qb's to beat. I think the odds are pretty good he melts down during the game.
Now I've got to decide how much on who.
bol
This is a truly strange week. I don't recall ever seeing the 4 road warrior wild card teams, favored over the division winners.
I like Ind, Bal, Atl and Phil. I haven't finalized my wagers, I'm glad you are thinking along the same lines.
Atl- Yes Atl qb is a rookie, but he sure doesn't play like one. More importantly, in Atl's offense, the run is king. He manages the offense, passing when the defense over plays the run. Warner can be cool, calm and collected or a nervous nellie. I'm glad he's having a good year, but it wasn't that long ago when he was almost out of the NFL. Chronic hand injuries prevented him from hanging on to the bal.
Bal-For years we have thought of Bal as that team with a killer defense, and just enough offense to get by. Not any more. Like Atl, another team with stud young qb. From week 6 on Bal scored more points than any other offense (this came up wk 15 or 16, I'm assuming its still true).
Bal's line off, the cumulative total of all the game margins is by far the highest of any of the 8 teams playing this weekend...+134. (line off if a team is favored to win by 4 and actually wins by 10, their line off is +6)
Bal +134 (Bal is a net +111.5 high for the week)
Mia +22.5
Atl +68.5
Arz -29.5
Ind +4.5
SD +14.5
Phl +56.5
Min +20.5
The one stat the correlates best with ats wins is the net giveaway/takeaway.
Bal +13....Mia +17.....the 2 best numbers in the post season. Mia's better but probably not enough to overcome Bal's LO edge.
Ind+9....SD+4
Atl-3.....Arz 0
Phl+3.....Min-6 Phl net +9, largest gap this week!
Indy is probably my strongest play. Two reasons, SD has injuries to the heart of their offense. In fact both teams are dinged up pretty good.
Second and IMHO, the larger factor is the (lack of) maturity of SD's QB. Omitting the 6 syllable words and using todays vernacular, Rivers is a punk. Million dollar arm, 10 cent psyche up against one of the tougher qb's to beat. I think the odds are pretty good he melts down during the game.
Now I've got to decide how much on who.
bol
Oops. Looks like I'm a day late...
Someone else on the board already posted the 3 20+ point win trend. Oh well.
And, in case you're wondering, I'm on a pretty good roll right now with bowls. Had Georgia and SC yesterday, and hit my "big" play earlier today with Ole Miss. Gives me a little more $ to work with this weekend.
Sounds like Bowling is treating you well. I have not touched too many myself, since I had my hands so much fuller this year trying to get a grip on the NFL, I could not pay as much attention to the college game. BOL with the rest and stay hot brother!
Hey Doc! You are a gentleman AND a scholar and it's always a pleasure when you stop by. Great stuff and as always, I am always glad to hear when we are on the same page and concordant, both with the sides as well as some of the factors and constituents that lead us to those conclusions. Epic info with the line off and takeaways. Happy belated New Year my friend and BOL this weekend!
