OK, I am still shaking off the cobwebs from last night. I made the mistake of having a few "pops" with the boys and now I am paying the price dearly today. But I need to post that BAL / MIA write-up that I promised last evening and never got around to completing.
I hope everyone had a great New Years and made it back home in one piece. BAL / MIA write-up coming up shortly.....
I hope everyone had a great New Years and made it back home in one piece. BAL / MIA write-up coming up shortly.....
BAL v MIA Write-Up
It is funny how things can appear differently depending on your perspective. Take the Miami Dolphins season record for instance. On the one hand, they enter the playoffs with a solid 11~5 season record, winning 9 of their last 10 and currently coasting in on a 5-game winning streak. Those are some very impressive numbers. But it is inside of those numbers, inside of the discussions about "who" they beat and "how" they beat them that perspectives may start to change depending on your point of view.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
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Talk to a Raven fan and you will hear that Miami is nothing more than a paper champion, nothing more than a team that benefited from the incredibly weak AFC East schedule (feasting on NFC West and AFC West opponents). Raven fans will point to the fact that in their last 10 games the Dolphins have not faced one single playoff team, and even then they still had to overcome a lot of close fought battles against weak opponents like the Seahawks, Raiders, Rams, Bills, 49ers and the Chiefs. And the Ravens fans will also remind you that Miami's only loss, of course, came against the closest thing resembling a playoff caliber team (a 28-to-48 loss at the hands of the Patriots).<o></o>
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If you talk to a Dolphins fan, you will hear that there is no such thing as an "easy" game in the NFL and that winning 9 out of 10 games, is exactly what it is, no matter who was on your schedule. They will tell you that Miami is even better than their season record suggests, how they are playing at a much higher level and have a much clearer identity now. Dolphin fans can easily rationalize about the games they should have won: Maybe it was the first game of the season versus the Jets, a game that was winnable up to the final minutes, only to be given away via a costly interception. Or maybe the game against Houston, lost on a last second touchdown by the Texans, set up by the failure to capitalize on two dropped interceptions just moments before.<o></o>
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But the one game that no one can argue, the one game that no moral victory was to be had, was the October 19th loss to the Baltimore Ravens. To die hard Dolphin fans that game was nothing more than an extremely rude wake up call (kind of like getting woken up with a baseball bat). I know, I know, the scoreboard indicated that it was close through most of the game. I know, I know, the Fins only trailed by 7 points heading into the 4th quarter. But I watched that entire game with my own eyes and I saw the Dolphins get physically dominated on both sides of the football. The points on the scoreboard may have been close through most of the game, but it never looked that close to me on the field of play.<o></o>
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In fact, that game might be the only time that I can remember seeing the Dolphins getting pushed around on both sides of the football. Both the offensive and defensive lines were having a hard time gaining traction versus the Ravens. The Miami offense was held to 71 yards rushing and their Wildcat trickery had little effect on a defense that is extremely disciplined in addition to being fast, physical and aggressive. The cool, calm demeanor of Chad Pennington usually wins the day for the Dolphins, who have benefited from his ability to protect the ball in high pressure situations. But the Ravens got to him that day. They rattled him and forced him into making some uncharacteristic mistakes and decisions with the football. And could you really blame him? That Ravens defense is downright nasty and scary.<o></o>
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On the other side of the ball the Ravens offensive line allowed Joe Flaco enough time to operate efficiently (17-of-23, 232 yards, a touchdown and no turnovers) and allowed their running backs to gain 139 yards on the ground. It was probably also the first time all season that Tony Sparano and the rest of the Miami coaching staff didn't seem to have any answers to the problems they were facing. And if you think they might be able to come up with answers now, after the luxury of playing them and viewing tape, you are mistaken. Baltimore never gives you the same look twice and will be constantly changing its tactics and disguising its intentions during the game.<o></o>
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I am confident that even if these two teams had not played already, even if I had not had the opportunity to see them play with my own eyes, I would be coming to the same conclusions. If Matt Ryan wasn't so good, we’d be probably be talking about Joe Flacco as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Flacco, for a rookie, has played extremely solid. Though it is rarely asked of him, he can come up big when you need him to and despite being in a clock-control offense, he finished the season with an admirable 2,971 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 80.3 passer rating and efficient 60.0 completion percentage and closed the season with a career-high 297 yards against Jacksonville. But the core strength of their offense is their 4th ranked rushing offense (148.5 ypg) featuring a tireless platoon of running backs that combined for 2,027 yards on the ground this season. Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain and veteran Willis McGahee combined for 1,573 yards and 18 touchdowns, with the impressive rookie Ray Rice contributing 454 rushing yards in his utility role.<o></o>
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Like I said earlier, this Ravens defense is nasty. They are ranked 2nd in the NFL against the pass (179.7 ypg), so it seems logical to assume that Pennington is going to need the help of a successful run game in order to get through this contest in one piece. But that is a pretty tall order against the 3rd ranked rushing defense (81.4 ypg) that only allows 3.6 yards per carry. Baltimore’s rush defense features two tackles (Haloti Ngata and Justin Bannan) who combined for 100 tackles, 3 interceptions and 2 sacks anchoring the defensive line. And while these monsters are occupying blocks and controlling the trenches, two incredible linebackers (Pro Bowler Ray Lewis and Bart Scott) that combined for 199 tackles, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions will be free to fly to the ball, inflict pain and create general chaos. The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd overall in total yards allowed (261.1 ypg).and they are ranked 3rd overall in total points allowed (15.2 ppg).<o></o>
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It is precisely these matchups that will likely create a significant number of third and long situations for Miami against a Raven defense only allowing 33.6 percent of third downs to be converted. It seems unfathomable to me that Penning will remain upright in this contest and that the Dolphins will have any success moving the ball consistently. They key for Miami will be to remain calm and to actually take the sacks inevitable sacks and punts in stride. Because in what will likely be a very conservatively played, defensive and field position orientated contest, getting rattled or making rash decisions against a Ravens squad that leads the NFL in interceptions (26) and overall takeaways (34) will cost you dearly.<o></o>
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For some of the Ravens, this game is another homecoming of sorts. Defensive leaders Reed and Lewis are among the former Miami Hurricanes who will feel right at home this weekend. The stadium was packed full of purple jerseys the last time, and many Fins fans fear the same could happen again for this playoff game. Willis McGahee, also a former Hurricane, had one of his best games of the season when he carried 19 times for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in back on October 19th.<o></o>
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I am sure that Miami is ready and waiting for them, having improved since the last meeting, winning 9 of their last 10 games and riding a 5-game winning streak. But Baltimore has also improved, they are moving the ball consistently on offense and they enter the playoffs just as hot: winning 9 of their last 11 games and what could have been a 6-game winning streak if not for a very physically played, hard fought 9-to-13 loss to Pittsburgh (losing a game in which they held the Steelers without a touchdown until the final 50 seconds of play and held their running backs to 70 yards rushing). <o></o>
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Miami is having a storybook season, but Baltimore does not care. Baltimore is just as hungry, just as determined and focused as they are and they have already proven that they can manhandle this football team. For the Raven the game plan will be simple. Despite Flacco having played his best game of the season in Week 17 versus Jacksonville (17-for-23 for 297 yards), the game plan will involve a lot of handing off for him. The Dolphins are surrendering 4.2 yards per carry this year and the Ravens mighty run game will be more than happy to take advantage. If Miami can avoid getting rattled and turning the ball over, I expect a close, hard fought battle in which the Ravens eventually wear down Miami through sheer strength and superior field position. But if the Dolphins let the Ravens get to them and if they are forced into bad decisions and mistakes, the Ravens could roll rather easily once the momentum shifts.<o></o>
It is funny how things can appear differently depending on your perspective. Take the Miami Dolphins season record for instance. On the one hand, they enter the playoffs with a solid 11~5 season record, winning 9 of their last 10 and currently coasting in on a 5-game winning streak. Those are some very impressive numbers. But it is inside of those numbers, inside of the discussions about "who" they beat and "how" they beat them that perspectives may start to change depending on your point of view.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Talk to a Raven fan and you will hear that Miami is nothing more than a paper champion, nothing more than a team that benefited from the incredibly weak AFC East schedule (feasting on NFC West and AFC West opponents). Raven fans will point to the fact that in their last 10 games the Dolphins have not faced one single playoff team, and even then they still had to overcome a lot of close fought battles against weak opponents like the Seahawks, Raiders, Rams, Bills, 49ers and the Chiefs. And the Ravens fans will also remind you that Miami's only loss, of course, came against the closest thing resembling a playoff caliber team (a 28-to-48 loss at the hands of the Patriots).<o
></o><o
></o>If you talk to a Dolphins fan, you will hear that there is no such thing as an "easy" game in the NFL and that winning 9 out of 10 games, is exactly what it is, no matter who was on your schedule. They will tell you that Miami is even better than their season record suggests, how they are playing at a much higher level and have a much clearer identity now. Dolphin fans can easily rationalize about the games they should have won: Maybe it was the first game of the season versus the Jets, a game that was winnable up to the final minutes, only to be given away via a costly interception. Or maybe the game against Houston, lost on a last second touchdown by the Texans, set up by the failure to capitalize on two dropped interceptions just moments before.<o
></o><o
></o>But the one game that no one can argue, the one game that no moral victory was to be had, was the October 19th loss to the Baltimore Ravens. To die hard Dolphin fans that game was nothing more than an extremely rude wake up call (kind of like getting woken up with a baseball bat). I know, I know, the scoreboard indicated that it was close through most of the game. I know, I know, the Fins only trailed by 7 points heading into the 4th quarter. But I watched that entire game with my own eyes and I saw the Dolphins get physically dominated on both sides of the football. The points on the scoreboard may have been close through most of the game, but it never looked that close to me on the field of play.<o
></o><o
></o>In fact, that game might be the only time that I can remember seeing the Dolphins getting pushed around on both sides of the football. Both the offensive and defensive lines were having a hard time gaining traction versus the Ravens. The Miami offense was held to 71 yards rushing and their Wildcat trickery had little effect on a defense that is extremely disciplined in addition to being fast, physical and aggressive. The cool, calm demeanor of Chad Pennington usually wins the day for the Dolphins, who have benefited from his ability to protect the ball in high pressure situations. But the Ravens got to him that day. They rattled him and forced him into making some uncharacteristic mistakes and decisions with the football. And could you really blame him? That Ravens defense is downright nasty and scary.<o
></o><o
></o>On the other side of the ball the Ravens offensive line allowed Joe Flaco enough time to operate efficiently (17-of-23, 232 yards, a touchdown and no turnovers) and allowed their running backs to gain 139 yards on the ground. It was probably also the first time all season that Tony Sparano and the rest of the Miami coaching staff didn't seem to have any answers to the problems they were facing. And if you think they might be able to come up with answers now, after the luxury of playing them and viewing tape, you are mistaken. Baltimore never gives you the same look twice and will be constantly changing its tactics and disguising its intentions during the game.<o
></o><o
></o>I am confident that even if these two teams had not played already, even if I had not had the opportunity to see them play with my own eyes, I would be coming to the same conclusions. If Matt Ryan wasn't so good, we’d be probably be talking about Joe Flacco as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Flacco, for a rookie, has played extremely solid. Though it is rarely asked of him, he can come up big when you need him to and despite being in a clock-control offense, he finished the season with an admirable 2,971 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 80.3 passer rating and efficient 60.0 completion percentage and closed the season with a career-high 297 yards against Jacksonville. But the core strength of their offense is their 4th ranked rushing offense (148.5 ypg) featuring a tireless platoon of running backs that combined for 2,027 yards on the ground this season. Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain and veteran Willis McGahee combined for 1,573 yards and 18 touchdowns, with the impressive rookie Ray Rice contributing 454 rushing yards in his utility role.<o
></o><o
></o>Like I said earlier, this Ravens defense is nasty. They are ranked 2nd in the NFL against the pass (179.7 ypg), so it seems logical to assume that Pennington is going to need the help of a successful run game in order to get through this contest in one piece. But that is a pretty tall order against the 3rd ranked rushing defense (81.4 ypg) that only allows 3.6 yards per carry. Baltimore’s rush defense features two tackles (Haloti Ngata and Justin Bannan) who combined for 100 tackles, 3 interceptions and 2 sacks anchoring the defensive line. And while these monsters are occupying blocks and controlling the trenches, two incredible linebackers (Pro Bowler Ray Lewis and Bart Scott) that combined for 199 tackles, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions will be free to fly to the ball, inflict pain and create general chaos. The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd overall in total yards allowed (261.1 ypg).and they are ranked 3rd overall in total points allowed (15.2 ppg).<o
></o><o
></o>It is precisely these matchups that will likely create a significant number of third and long situations for Miami against a Raven defense only allowing 33.6 percent of third downs to be converted. It seems unfathomable to me that Penning will remain upright in this contest and that the Dolphins will have any success moving the ball consistently. They key for Miami will be to remain calm and to actually take the sacks inevitable sacks and punts in stride. Because in what will likely be a very conservatively played, defensive and field position orientated contest, getting rattled or making rash decisions against a Ravens squad that leads the NFL in interceptions (26) and overall takeaways (34) will cost you dearly.<o
></o><o
></o>For some of the Ravens, this game is another homecoming of sorts. Defensive leaders Reed and Lewis are among the former Miami Hurricanes who will feel right at home this weekend. The stadium was packed full of purple jerseys the last time, and many Fins fans fear the same could happen again for this playoff game. Willis McGahee, also a former Hurricane, had one of his best games of the season when he carried 19 times for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in back on October 19th.<o
></o><o
></o>I am sure that Miami is ready and waiting for them, having improved since the last meeting, winning 9 of their last 10 games and riding a 5-game winning streak. But Baltimore has also improved, they are moving the ball consistently on offense and they enter the playoffs just as hot: winning 9 of their last 11 games and what could have been a 6-game winning streak if not for a very physically played, hard fought 9-to-13 loss to Pittsburgh (losing a game in which they held the Steelers without a touchdown until the final 50 seconds of play and held their running backs to 70 yards rushing). <o
></o><o
></o>Miami is having a storybook season, but Baltimore does not care. Baltimore is just as hungry, just as determined and focused as they are and they have already proven that they can manhandle this football team. For the Raven the game plan will be simple. Despite Flacco having played his best game of the season in Week 17 versus Jacksonville (17-for-23 for 297 yards), the game plan will involve a lot of handing off for him. The Dolphins are surrendering 4.2 yards per carry this year and the Ravens mighty run game will be more than happy to take advantage. If Miami can avoid getting rattled and turning the ball over, I expect a close, hard fought battle in which the Ravens eventually wear down Miami through sheer strength and superior field position. But if the Dolphins let the Ravens get to them and if they are forced into bad decisions and mistakes, the Ravens could roll rather easily once the momentum shifts.<o
></o>
As a long time follower of your plays and write-ups I would appreciate a little more "in-depth" analysis of both team's strengths and weaknesses. This haphazard, coin toss method of handicapping is really disconcerting.
Oh and by the way, I'm more of a NCAA women's field hockey capper and I really like Maryland to repeat as champions next year. I took them at +400.
:lol:
That one nearly made me spit up my coffee (yeah still in recovery mode and drinking coffee yet). That was awesome AJ!
LOL! sounds like a good night was had!
Glad to see you on Indy, ATL and Baltimore. They were my early leans, but I was second-guessing myself for taking all road favs that the public was backing. Haven't really got a chance to look deeply at any of them yet (planning on a slow day at work tomorrow, so hopefully I'll be able to dig up a nugget or two and share them), because of the bowl games.
Hope you're feeling better!
Oh, man. I rarely drink. Maybe a foriegn beer or two, every once in awhile. Too old for that shit I guess. Anyway, they were going down too well. Next thing you know I wanted a Seven & Seven ~ which wet my appetite for a Crown Royal on the rocks. The rest is history.
Yeah, you were pretty much at the same conclusions I came too....only you knew them right out of the starting blocks as usual. I just wanted to be cautious and make sure my numbers supported my leans. I still do not know how I feel about the PHI / MIN game. I need to do some more homework on that one yet.
I will be interested to see what you dig up later. BOL with the Bowl games buddy!
LOVE the Ravens..LOVE THEM
Their Defense will show that The Fish are just Smoke and Mirrors
BOL ! :toast:
........................................................................................................
FREE CONTEST
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=648380
Their Defense will show that The Fish are just Smoke and Mirrors
BOL ! :toast:
........................................................................................................
FREE CONTEST
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=648380
Long time Chargers fan here. Yes, we owned Indy in the past and we just blew out Denver to win the west. But the angle I'm looking at here is who did the Chargers beat and who did the Colts beat. If you make the playoff with an 8-8 record, that's a pretty shitty division, not that your team is good.
The Colts are 12-4 and didn't get here by beating shitty teams. I don't know how the Chargers got homefield for this game.
I like INDY -1. Yes I'm a Chargers fan and yes I'm being realistic. It is what it is. I believe it is a pk at sportsbook.
I also like ATL/Ari over 51.
GLA!
The Colts are 12-4 and didn't get here by beating shitty teams. I don't know how the Chargers got homefield for this game.
I like INDY -1. Yes I'm a Chargers fan and yes I'm being realistic. It is what it is. I believe it is a pk at sportsbook.
I also like ATL/Ari over 51.
GLA!
