Why government cannot control costs

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A good article - the next time your elected representatives are explaining to you why they need to raise your taxes, remember this ... this isn't about Republicans or Democrats, it about all those people who have the mindset that government can fix things by spending money, it's just that they don't have ENOUGH ...

Our Over-budget Government

Wednesday, September 24, 2003
By By Chris Edwards

In 1985, government officials claimed that Boston's "Big Dig" highway project (search) would cost $2.6 billion and be completed by 1998. The cost ballooned to $14.6 billion and the project is still not finished.

In 1988, Medicare's new home health care benefit was projected to cost $4 billion by 1993; the actual 1993 cost was $10 billion. Congress is now considering a prescription drug bill with a $400 billion price tag. If enacted, the actual cost will almost certainly be much higher.

Large cost overruns are commonplace in government construction projects, procurement and entitlement programs. Officials routinely low-ball costs of proposals to win initial spending approval. When programs go over budget and do not work as promised, politicians place the blame on blunders by the bureaucracy or private contractors. In reality, cost overruns and program failure are not isolated problems but are systematic and widespread across the federal government.

Planes, Trains, and Automobiles

Federally funded projects often turn into debacles. Most famously, the cost of Boston's Central Artery project, the Big Dig, has more than quintupled. One key problem revealed in a Boston Globe investigation is that rather than demanding accountability, the government bailed out bungling Big Dig contractors with added cash 3,200 times when work didn't go as planned.

Large cost overruns occur in many areas of federal activity. In the 1980s, Denver's mayor Federico Pena pushed for a new international airport on the basis of bad cost estimates. The public agreed to a $1.7 billion airport in a 1989 referendum, but the cost mushroomed to $4.8 billion by the time the airport was opened in 1995.

In 1994, government officials claimed that the Springfield highway interchange project would cost $241 million. The cost has now soared to at least $676 million. On the other side of the Potomac river, the $300 million Capitol Hill Visitors Center faces cost overruns, and the cost of a new Kennedy Center parking lot has jumped to $88 million from the original 1998 estimate of $28 million. High above the Potomac, the cost of NASA's Space Station has skyrocketed from $17 billion in 1995 to $30 billion today.

These are just a sampling of cost overruns revealed in reports by the U.S. General Accounting Office. Overspending also permeates Pentagon procurement and Department of Energy contracting. DOE's $18 billion per year of contracting was put on the GAO's watch list for waste (search), fraud and abuse more than a decade ago. But a recent GAO review found that 38 percent of projects examined had more than doubled in cost.

What causes the cost overruns? A study in the Journal of the American Planning Association (search) last year by Danish economists looked at 258 government transportation projects in the United States and abroad. They found that cost overruns stem from government deceit, not honest errors. Nine of 10 projects in their sample had cost overruns, with an average overrun of 28 percent. The study concluded that intentional deception by public officials was the source of the problem: "Project promoters routinely ignore, hide or otherwise leave out important project costs and risks in order to make total costs appear low." Politicians use "salami tactics" whereby costs are only revealed to taxpayers one slice at a time in the hope that the project is too far along when true costs are revealed to turn back.

Salami tactics are just one problem with federal spending. Another is that the states compete with each other to secure federal dollars, and thus they are prone to exaggerate project benefits and minimize costs. Then when cost overruns occur, state officials seek to cover up poor contractor performance to conceal their own bad oversight, as occurred with the Big Dig. To make matters worse, the federal government does not ensure efficient use of funds sent to the states. For example, the GAO found that half of the federally funded highway projects it examined recently had cost escalations greater than 25 percent.

Entitlement Cost Overruns Are Endemic

Federal "entitlement" programs are like nationwide Big Digs. Initially, politicians low-ball costs to gain approval of new benefits for Medicare, Medicaid, farm subsidies (search) and other programs. They do this by putting supposed cost limits into legislation, but the limits either do not work, are evaded, or are later repealed. When costs soar and programs do not work, politicians hold hearings to cast blame elsewhere, such as on drug firms or hospitals. But that is a charade--Congress should know by now that high costs and poor performance are to be expected when central planning, as in Medicare, is substituted for private competitive markets.

When Medicare Part A was enacted in 1965, costs were projected to rise to $9 billion by 1990, but actual costs reached $67 billion by 1990. When the Medicaid special hospitals subsidy was added in 1987 annual costs were projected to be $100 million. By 1992 annual costs had risen to $11 billion. Today, most analysts are projecting that the $400 billion prescription drug plan will end up costing far more than is being claimed. Some drug bill supporters are already saying that they plan to push for further drug spending after any initial bill is passed.

Return Economic Activities to the Private Sector

Governments will always be wasteful users of resources because they tend to replace competition with monopoly and market pricing with bureaucratic regulations. In addition, since public officials do not risk their own personal funds, they are more likely to support unsound schemes and less interested in making sure programs stay on budget. As a consequence, we would be better off if Congress scaled back entitlement programs rather expanded them, privatized infrastructure such as airports and energy projects, and let entrepreneurs put up their own capital for risky pursuits such as space exploration.
 

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What drives me crazy is that people think that goverment can do a better job of redistributing money than I (we) can.
For instance.$100 bucks gets taken out of my pay in taxes to pay for people on welfare...The problem is, that there are about 25 people who work in the welfare office doing 5 peoples job.So by the time the person on welfare recives any of it its probably devalued to 10$...Now if I wasn't taxed for this 100$. I could give the money directley to the salvation army or the church or directley to the family who needs it....To prove a point.Massachusetts was listed as last on the list of states who donated to charity,but is one of the most highly taxed states in the US.
On the other side of the coin.Utah is one of the least taxed and is one of the top states in the US giving to charitble organizations.
Also the goverment takes my money at gunpoint and buys needles for junkies and turkey basters for lesbians....Iwould never buy that shit for anyone...where is my free choice?...If you bleeding hearts want buy rubbers for 13 year olds, be my guest, but leave my money the fxck alone.
 

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I don't donate to charity - never have, never will.

Instead, thoughout my life I have given money and other needed items to people I personally know and who have needed it badly. This has allowed me to help when I knew it to be necessary from first-hand knowledge and there was no waste whatsoever involved. Writing a check for people I'd never know for a tax deduction I don't need that will get put through the shredder by a charity's administrative and overhead expenses never appealed to me.

And for those tempted to try to say that this is selfish, of COURSE it is - my ability to help people I know and respect in the most direct manner possible is one of the greatest joys I have known and will know. Being 'unselfish' means you have no personal stake, which means you are not really involved to me. I'm not castigating that, I'm saying it's not me. I don't live my life for others and I don't ask them to live their lives for me.

Anyhow, I was rambling - here's another example of the blindness of government - what really makes me ill is that these people KNOW better and still put out a recommendation like that for their own agenda ...

Prohibitionists Write Federal Alcohol Report

Friday , September 26, 2003
By Steven Milloy

A federal panel on underage drinking recently called for higher taxes on alcoholic beverages to reduce alcohol consumption by minors.

While this recommendation may seem reasonable at first glance, it’s unlikely to work. Moreover, it’s part of an ongoing effort by neo-prohibitionists to reduce alcohol consumption in general.

A panel of the National Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Medicine recommended in its Sep. 9 report “"Reducing Underage Drinking: A Collective Responsibility” that Congress and state legislatures should raise excise tax rates on alcohol, particularly on beer, supposedly the alcoholic beverage that most young people prefer.

“Alcohol is much cheaper today, after adjusting for inflation, than it was 30 to 40 years ago... Increasing the cost of alcohol has well-documented deterrent effects on underage drinkers,” the IOM panel asserts.

But panel’s claim is lame, from both a research and common sense perspective.

The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism’s “ 10th Special Report,” issued in June, 2000, cites plenty of research reporting no effect of higher beer taxes on college and student drinking.

Even if some IOM panel members were somehow ignorant of the NIAAA report, at least one panel member, Philip J. Cook of Duke University, has no excuse. Dr. Cook wrote in 1999 that, “the scholarly consensus on the public-health benefits of alcohol excise taxes appears to have broken down in recent years.”

“Estimates of the influence of beer excise taxes on drinking, heavy drinking and motor-vehicle fatality rates are not robust…and the true effects may be considerably smaller than suggested in the previous literature,” added Dr. Cook.

That underage drinkers aren’t terribly responsive to excise taxes (or even really price) shouldn’t be news to anyone. Underage drinkers don’t drink because they can afford it; they drink what they can afford.

The IOM panel’s recommendation is further undercut by its own acknowledgement that most underage drinkers get their alcohol “directly or indirectly from adults.”

How is an excise tax going to affect underage drinkers if they’re not buying it in the first place?

Excise taxes, in reality, would probably only impact adult consumers, perhaps causing some to their reduce purchases of alcoholic beverages-- the real goal of the neo-prohibitionists.

Nine of the 12 “experts” on the IOM panel have ties to anti-alcohol activists, according to the Center for Consumer Freedom. Eight of the 12 have ties to the prohibitionist Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Between 1988-2002, RWJF gave more than $260 million to anti-alcohol causes. Over $60 million went to something called the “Consider Fighting Back” program, a goal of which is to “achieve measurable reduction in the overall use or demand for alcohol.”

Here’s a brief run-down of some of the IOM panel members

Marilyn Aguirre-Molina is a former RWJF senior program officer and current RWJF consultant who accused alcohol companies in 1990 of “killing us softly.”

Judy Cushing is the CEO of the RWJF-funded Oregon Partnership, which has run ads linking beer with heroin and other illegal drugs.

Panel chairman Richard J. Bonnie, previously chaired an RWJF-funded Committee.

Joel Grube is director of the Prevention Research Center at the anti-alcohol RWJF-funded Pacific Institute on Research & Evaluation.

So the IOM panel was seriously biased and its conclusions were likely determined before it began work. The panel’s recommendations are nothing more than RWJF prohibitionism dressed up in IOM clothing.

Perhaps worst of all, the IOM panel paid scant attention to efforts that may actually reduce underage drinking.

“Social norms” is a relatively new approach to addressing risky behaviors. It has been successfully tested on selected college campuses to reduce alcohol use and abuse by students.

Social norms theory predicts that individuals overestimate the degree to which peers have permissive attitudes or behavior with respect to alcohol use, smoking and other risky behavior and underestimate the extent to which peers engage in health, health-promoting or risk-reducing behavior.

Educating students on what are the norms for behavior actually can lead to reductions in risky behavior. Social norms programs at Northern Illinois University, the University of Arizona, Western Washington University, Hobart College and William Smith College have led to significant reductions in problem drinking.

The IOM panel dismissed the social norms approach as not having enough supporting data -- a problem the panel strangely didn’t seem to have with raising beer excise taxes even though the latter approach has been seriously questioned, if not discredited.

But I suspect that the panel’s real problem with the social norms approach is that simply reducing underage drinking doesn’t accomplish the panel’s real goal -- halting the public’s consumption of alcoholic beverages.
 

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How dare they attack the government-sponsored drug of alcohol -- the alcohol industry pays their lobbying dues. Let's get back to attacking the drugs that can't be nicely marketed, don't have a lobby and don't bring in revenue, like marijuana. Never mind that the former kills hundreds of thousands and the latter virtually none. Take a guess who bankrolls government-shill programs like DARE -- yup, you guessed it, alcohol companies. Follow the money.
 

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Yup, D2 - and so it goes.

Anyone here who is in favor of raising taxes willing to admit that they have themselves not personally spent any effort to mobilize against the waste in government as a way in which more taxes would be unnecessary, except only in those instances when they simply don't agree with a given program? Anyone who were against the tax cuts care to reveal how many politicians they have unleashed their anger at, that our money is routinely pissed down a gopher hole without accountability? Anyone?
 

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I know this may be off-topic, lol, but is there any government program that is more wasteful than the War on Drugs? The money spent to arrest drug "criminals", prosecute and incarcerate them is staggering.

I'm not sure what anyone can do at this point to "mobilize" against such waste.

By the way, the size of the Fed Govt has increased more under Dubya than at any other time our nation's history. Over 1 million more federal workers since he's taken office. This is someone who spoke out against "big government"? Talk about all talk and no action.
 

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The problem with the war on drugs, which was also carried on through the 8 years of Clinton's administration, is that it hasn't been successful. That's more than enough reason to do something else.
 

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Amen Jazz. And sadly, there's very little, if any, difference between the two parties on this issue.
 

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Strange as it may sound, the real culprit behind insane political bills is not a politician at all -- it's a dead alchemist who pretended he was an economist.

John Maynard Keynes is considered by probably 90% of the world to have been a brilliant economist, despite the fact that more scientific approaches to economics have demonstrated his theories laughable on paper, and the last fifty years of following his advice almost to the letter when it comes to government spending has proven disastrous in practice.

However, one thing that following the Keynesian Theory of economics will do for a politician, is to create a loaves and circuses show for the masses, which unfortunately will generally get just enough of the population off of their sorry asses to go down to the election booth and vote themselves some more largesse.

From the fallacy of public works as economic stimulus, to the retarded decision to remove the American dollar from the gold standard and let it float as a fiat currency, you can thank JM Keynes for almost every bad fiscal decision made by every American politician since FDR.


Phaedrus
 

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Prohibition against alcohol did not work. That's why the amendment was repealed. Prohibition against drugs is not working either.

Entitlements are the single largest (by percentage) expediture of the US government, even more than defense. When a welfare whore gets paid money by the government it means she can buy more drugs or booze. It doesn't mean her children are better off.
 

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Phaedrus: agreed, every time I hear his name spoken reverently or read that some economist has good words for Keynesian theory, a cold chill runs down my spine.
 
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In my opinion, one of the reasons for such bipartisan support of the worthless war on drugs is the appeal, made from the beginning, to emotion. "Protect your family values, your children." "they're not safe with drugs in a society." Because this appeal was made anyone now who goes against the WoD is seen as disregarding the effect of drugs on "the children".
 

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