FYI: MRPOOPS knows what he is talking about, and I'm sure of the 7 Rutgers losses I have accumulated, he probably advised me to stay away from at least 2-3 of them.
I see a lot of people talking about how they will refuse to lay money on Rutgers until they see the offense with all of its potential finally do what it was supposed to do this year. Unfortunately for all of those that feel that way, if Rutgers does break out in the Navy game this year, we will not be able to cash in on our "wait and see" approach. Say Rutgers beats Navy 34-24 on Saturday. They then get their patsy Morgan State and win 51-6. Now Week 6 comes and they head up to Morgantown at 2-2. Immediately both the linesmakers and the public switch their perception of Rutgers from a joke (like they are now) to what they were at the beginning of the season, an above-average team that is a mid-level Big East contender (3rd-6th). Sensing a public that expects Rutgers to actually have more than a slim chance at knocking off a vulnerable West Virginia at West Virginia, the Mountaineers are installed as only a 6-8 point favorite. Immediately there is value in West Virginia. In 2006, Rutgers at its best could not even beat West Virginia in Morgantown even without Pat White playing and a berth in the Orange Bowl hanging in the balance.
So there you go. In my honest opinion its now or never for someone to bet Rutgers, at least for the next few weeks. Now is where there is the most value. Two national TV home blowouts. This is as low in the Las Vegas power rankings as Rutgers has been since early 2006. Rutgers was about a 17 point favorite against Navy last year. Now you are getting them in a must-win situation or else be 1-3 going into Morgantown at the risk of easily going 1-4. You are getting them against a team that they have beaten on 6 of the last 7 occasions, and most of the time beaten comfortably and handedly. You could have gotten them for 3.5 or 4 lousy points. In my opinion this game was a no brainer play. Notice I didn't say it was a lock, no game is a lock. Rutgers can come out and show more of the same; like put up 482 yards of offense and 22 first downs and only put 16 points on the board, who knows. But the bottom line is this, for the spread that you could have gotten when I made my initial post, the VALUE IS INCREDIBLE. Understand that when I had my initial lines sketched out I installed Rutgers a 7.5 to 8 point favorite even after the North Carolina debacle.
Is this game a lock for a Rutgers win and cover? Are you kidding me, NO WAY, especially with the way Rutgers has opened up the season.
BUT. The value is incredible, and value that I haven't seen in a line since I hammered Georgia Tech +2 against Notre Dame at the start of the 2007 season.
I still love this play, good luck to all.
I see a lot of people talking about how they will refuse to lay money on Rutgers until they see the offense with all of its potential finally do what it was supposed to do this year. Unfortunately for all of those that feel that way, if Rutgers does break out in the Navy game this year, we will not be able to cash in on our "wait and see" approach. Say Rutgers beats Navy 34-24 on Saturday. They then get their patsy Morgan State and win 51-6. Now Week 6 comes and they head up to Morgantown at 2-2. Immediately both the linesmakers and the public switch their perception of Rutgers from a joke (like they are now) to what they were at the beginning of the season, an above-average team that is a mid-level Big East contender (3rd-6th). Sensing a public that expects Rutgers to actually have more than a slim chance at knocking off a vulnerable West Virginia at West Virginia, the Mountaineers are installed as only a 6-8 point favorite. Immediately there is value in West Virginia. In 2006, Rutgers at its best could not even beat West Virginia in Morgantown even without Pat White playing and a berth in the Orange Bowl hanging in the balance.
So there you go. In my honest opinion its now or never for someone to bet Rutgers, at least for the next few weeks. Now is where there is the most value. Two national TV home blowouts. This is as low in the Las Vegas power rankings as Rutgers has been since early 2006. Rutgers was about a 17 point favorite against Navy last year. Now you are getting them in a must-win situation or else be 1-3 going into Morgantown at the risk of easily going 1-4. You are getting them against a team that they have beaten on 6 of the last 7 occasions, and most of the time beaten comfortably and handedly. You could have gotten them for 3.5 or 4 lousy points. In my opinion this game was a no brainer play. Notice I didn't say it was a lock, no game is a lock. Rutgers can come out and show more of the same; like put up 482 yards of offense and 22 first downs and only put 16 points on the board, who knows. But the bottom line is this, for the spread that you could have gotten when I made my initial post, the VALUE IS INCREDIBLE. Understand that when I had my initial lines sketched out I installed Rutgers a 7.5 to 8 point favorite even after the North Carolina debacle.
Is this game a lock for a Rutgers win and cover? Are you kidding me, NO WAY, especially with the way Rutgers has opened up the season.
BUT. The value is incredible, and value that I haven't seen in a line since I hammered Georgia Tech +2 against Notre Dame at the start of the 2007 season.
I still love this play, good luck to all.
I'll tell you right now, even if Navy beats Rutgers they will have a hard time going 7-5 this year, let alone 8-4. On top of their 2 losses to Ball State and Duke, I see future possibilities of losses at Wake Forest, at Air Force, vs Pittsburgh, and vs Notre Dame; and that is not even counting Rutgers into the mix who is currently a 2.4:1 favorite to win SU according to The Greek. The Midshipmen have already shot themselves in the foot by losing winnable games against Ball State and Duke so far this year.
But if you are asking me is the 2008 version of Navy on the same level as the 2007 one, I would have to answer no. Could that be because of Kaipo-Noa's health issues? Well that certainly is part of it. But like Rutgers, Navy had to replace 3 starting OL in 2008, and still shows the same problems on defense that led to an overall ranking of 99th overall in 2007, including a 62 point disaster against North Texas in regulation. Rutgers scored 41 on them last year, but without Rice I expect that number to be a little less, hence my 31-23 prediction. But I just don't think Navy has improved, and you probably know after reading my article that I don't think the 2008 Rutgers football team is as much different from the 2007 version as most people think. I think they were an overrated team helped by a soft schedule. However, Navy was on that soft schedule, and Rutgers has hammered them back to back years.
Keep the questions coming!
But if you are asking me is the 2008 version of Navy on the same level as the 2007 one, I would have to answer no. Could that be because of Kaipo-Noa's health issues? Well that certainly is part of it. But like Rutgers, Navy had to replace 3 starting OL in 2008, and still shows the same problems on defense that led to an overall ranking of 99th overall in 2007, including a 62 point disaster against North Texas in regulation. Rutgers scored 41 on them last year, but without Rice I expect that number to be a little less, hence my 31-23 prediction. But I just don't think Navy has improved, and you probably know after reading my article that I don't think the 2008 Rutgers football team is as much different from the 2007 version as most people think. I think they were an overrated team helped by a soft schedule. However, Navy was on that soft schedule, and Rutgers has hammered them back to back years.
Keep the questions coming!
If you watch the Ball State game again (I do film clip-ups and highlights of the games on my computer and then put them on a DVD) the Ball State secondary was helpless against Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, Tim Brown, and Kevin Brock. The larger Rutgers OL opened up holes the size of Texas, and the Rutgers DL (which remains intact minus Eric Foster) abused Nate Davis all game.
52-30 final, but I know you watched it and know it wasn't even as close as it sounded.
52-30 final, but I know you watched it and know it wasn't even as close as it sounded.
If it goes to -7.5, -8, -8.5, which would be out of this world, I would think myself about an actual middle attempt.
I put 16.50 units to win 15.00 on Rutgers -3.5 right away. It is now up to -6 basically everywhere, thus the 2.5 point line move has decreased the value in the play in the first place. At -3.5 it is basically my GOY. If it was -6 right from the get-go I would probably lay about half of what I did on it, or 8.25 units to win 7.50. Once the line moves past -7, it basically loses all "big play" value to me. If it was -7.5 I'd probably buy it down to -7 at (-120) and play 3.00 units to win 2.50.
But honestly MRPOOPS I would advise you personally to stay away from the game. You are obviously very unsure about the game, and rightfully so as you bring up a number of very fair points. You have been right and I have been wrong in the past on Rutgers, so I wouldn't let my opinion try and sway you to betting on Rutgers, especially since the spread already jumped about 2 to 2.5 points.
I put 16.50 units to win 15.00 on Rutgers -3.5 right away. It is now up to -6 basically everywhere, thus the 2.5 point line move has decreased the value in the play in the first place. At -3.5 it is basically my GOY. If it was -6 right from the get-go I would probably lay about half of what I did on it, or 8.25 units to win 7.50. Once the line moves past -7, it basically loses all "big play" value to me. If it was -7.5 I'd probably buy it down to -7 at (-120) and play 3.00 units to win 2.50.
But honestly MRPOOPS I would advise you personally to stay away from the game. You are obviously very unsure about the game, and rightfully so as you bring up a number of very fair points. You have been right and I have been wrong in the past on Rutgers, so I wouldn't let my opinion try and sway you to betting on Rutgers, especially since the spread already jumped about 2 to 2.5 points.
