I've been wanting to see a 6-6-6-0 scenario in the Cup and this might be it.
6 -- Mexico (+2)
3 -- Germany (0)
3 -- Sweden (0)
0 -- Korea
Germany will beat Korea and Sweden must beat Mexico to have a chance to advance:
6 -- Mexico
6 -- Germany
6 -- Sweden
0 -- Korea
If Germany and Sweden both win by 2, then Mexico would be eliminated. Amazingly, it looks like Germany could still finish in 1st place.... if Sweden beats Mexico and Germany pounds Korea (which will likely be by 2+).
Actually, if Germany and Sweden win by one goal, then they'd all be +1...
6 -- Mexico (+1)
6 -- Germany (+1)
6 -- Sweden (+1)
0 -- Korea
I forget the next tiebreaker
6 -- Mexico (+2)
3 -- Germany (0)
3 -- Sweden (0)
0 -- Korea
Germany will beat Korea and Sweden must beat Mexico to have a chance to advance:
6 -- Mexico
6 -- Germany
6 -- Sweden
0 -- Korea
If Germany and Sweden both win by 2, then Mexico would be eliminated. Amazingly, it looks like Germany could still finish in 1st place.... if Sweden beats Mexico and Germany pounds Korea (which will likely be by 2+).
Actually, if Germany and Sweden win by one goal, then they'd all be +1...
6 -- Mexico (+1)
6 -- Germany (+1)
6 -- Sweden (+1)
0 -- Korea
I forget the next tiebreaker
Next tiebreaker is goals scored.
Germ/Swed win. Germany by 2 or more likely wins group. But if Sweden wins 1-0 or by any other score of by one goal, then Mex/Swed tied in the 3rd tiebreaker.
6 -- Germany (+2)
6 -- Mexico (+1)
6 -- Sweden (+1)
0 -- Korea
4th tiebreaker is head to head points. So basically if Mexico loses to Sweden... they are out.... UNLESS Germany doesn't beat Korea by 2 or more goals. I think Germany will win by 2+, thus the Mex/Swed game is the elimination game. If Mex draw/win, they are in. If they lose, they are out.
Amazing that they could be eliminated with 6 points in the first two matches. Not sure if that's happened in the past few decades as this situation requires a 6-6-6 scenario.
Germ/Swed win. Germany by 2 or more likely wins group. But if Sweden wins 1-0 or by any other score of by one goal, then Mex/Swed tied in the 3rd tiebreaker.
6 -- Germany (+2)
6 -- Mexico (+1)
6 -- Sweden (+1)
0 -- Korea
4th tiebreaker is head to head points. So basically if Mexico loses to Sweden... they are out.... UNLESS Germany doesn't beat Korea by 2 or more goals. I think Germany will win by 2+, thus the Mex/Swed game is the elimination game. If Mex draw/win, they are in. If they lose, they are out.
Amazing that they could be eliminated with 6 points in the first two matches. Not sure if that's happened in the past few decades as this situation requires a 6-6-6 scenario.
I had a draw + a whole lot
Sweden might not recover from today's loss.
I like Mexico in that game.
I like Mexico in that game.
This is exactly what I thought. Emotional state is a big part of my handicapping which is why I pay a lot of attention to immediate reactions after a loss, press conference feels, etc.. The looks on the faces of those players looked like a team that is completely spent emotionally after that loss. I told myself I was backing whomever they played against in the next game automatically.
If one does think Germany can somehow win the group, you can get them +425 to win Group F or if you think they will not advance, you can get them +605. However one might think since Mexico has a good possibility of not advancing, they should jump on them not doing so at +385.
All prices at 5Dimes
All prices at 5Dimes
Espn has an excellent break down of the scenarios.
Germany can't risk the possibilities. They need to win by 2 or more -- and they will do it.
Thus it all comes down to Sweden/Mexico:
Sweden win = Mexico out
Any other scenario = Mexico in
What I think will happen is that they will likely draw. Sweden will need the W, but they won't be able to get it. However, if Sweden scores first, it will be absolute and immediate panic mode for Mexico... and that would make for an exciting scenario. Otherwise, if Mexico scores first, it's 99% likelihood lights out b/c Sweden is not going to flip the tables with a 2-goal turnaround.
Personally, I hope for an exciting match whereby Sweden scores first..... and then Mexico goes balls to the wall. OR, they are evens at about 70 minutes and Sweden goes balls to the wall.
My pick: Germany and Mexico advance.
Germany can't risk the possibilities. They need to win by 2 or more -- and they will do it.
Thus it all comes down to Sweden/Mexico:
Sweden win = Mexico out
Any other scenario = Mexico in
What I think will happen is that they will likely draw. Sweden will need the W, but they won't be able to get it. However, if Sweden scores first, it will be absolute and immediate panic mode for Mexico... and that would make for an exciting scenario. Otherwise, if Mexico scores first, it's 99% likelihood lights out b/c Sweden is not going to flip the tables with a 2-goal turnaround.
Personally, I hope for an exciting match whereby Sweden scores first..... and then Mexico goes balls to the wall. OR, they are evens at about 70 minutes and Sweden goes balls to the wall.
My pick: Germany and Mexico advance.
Wow, if you look at the odds, Mexico is -715 to advance! That is insane!
Must be a typo. -715 at Pinnacle and -485 at 5dimes.
You're better off taking Mexico +0.5 vs Sweden. If Sweden loses, then Mexico is definitely out. Germany will pound Korea. +0.5 is probably -250 or something like that.
Must be a typo. -715 at Pinnacle and -485 at 5dimes.
You're better off taking Mexico +0.5 vs Sweden. If Sweden loses, then Mexico is definitely out. Germany will pound Korea. +0.5 is probably -250 or something like that.
Huge games tomorrow.
Germany -2 +104
Germany -1.5 -159
Mexico +0.5 -255
Mexico pk -143
Sweden pk +128
Sweden +0.5 -153
I've seen a lot of analysts pick Sweden to win and thus Mexico is out. Coach of Mexico said he will play for the win even though they only need one point. That is a huge mistake. In the later rounds when it's sudden death teams get all conservative b/c survival is on the line. Huge mistake. That would be a colossal error. Much like the error by Gareca in not playing Guerrero, which was probably the dumbest move of the whole tournament.... especially since the Danish coach said Peru was the best team in that group even though they only got 3 points.
I think Mexico is clearly overrated and they are likely to come back down to Earth. They are a lesser team than Sweden. However, they have the advantage and Sweden is playing from a deficit... thus they are almost essentially on equal terms. I can easily see Mexico getting zero goals in this game, thus it will be up to Sweden to simply net one goal. However, if Mexico scores, then Sweden needs two goals... and that might be too much to ask for.
Interesting thing is that Sweden opens the game clearly desperate. However, with a Swedish first goal, then Mexico becomes the desperate side. An opening goal by Mexico and they're pretty advancing.
Just have a strange feeling that Sweden will get the first goal ... whenever that may be .... and Mexico will go into absolute desperation mode. And that will be amplified by the fact that they did everything to qualify, got 6 points, were in first place... and all of a sudden they are eliminated.
I think Argentina's true level was demonstrated in the first 15 minutes of the game and in spite of their retarded coach. However, that could not be maintained. Argentina's true identity was present for a short time... though that team can only appear in glimpses. And such it will be, I feel, with Mexico. Once they get down 1-0, the old Mexico team and the team pre-Germany win will be present.... and they won't be able to even get it close.
Love Sweden here +0.5. Even if they go down 1-0, they'll fight for the equalizer and possibly get it. However, if Mexico is down, likely it's lights out.
Germany -2 +104
Germany -1.5 -159
Mexico +0.5 -255
Mexico pk -143
Sweden pk +128
Sweden +0.5 -153
I've seen a lot of analysts pick Sweden to win and thus Mexico is out. Coach of Mexico said he will play for the win even though they only need one point. That is a huge mistake. In the later rounds when it's sudden death teams get all conservative b/c survival is on the line. Huge mistake. That would be a colossal error. Much like the error by Gareca in not playing Guerrero, which was probably the dumbest move of the whole tournament.... especially since the Danish coach said Peru was the best team in that group even though they only got 3 points.
I think Mexico is clearly overrated and they are likely to come back down to Earth. They are a lesser team than Sweden. However, they have the advantage and Sweden is playing from a deficit... thus they are almost essentially on equal terms. I can easily see Mexico getting zero goals in this game, thus it will be up to Sweden to simply net one goal. However, if Mexico scores, then Sweden needs two goals... and that might be too much to ask for.
Interesting thing is that Sweden opens the game clearly desperate. However, with a Swedish first goal, then Mexico becomes the desperate side. An opening goal by Mexico and they're pretty advancing.
Just have a strange feeling that Sweden will get the first goal ... whenever that may be .... and Mexico will go into absolute desperation mode. And that will be amplified by the fact that they did everything to qualify, got 6 points, were in first place... and all of a sudden they are eliminated.
I think Argentina's true level was demonstrated in the first 15 minutes of the game and in spite of their retarded coach. However, that could not be maintained. Argentina's true identity was present for a short time... though that team can only appear in glimpses. And such it will be, I feel, with Mexico. Once they get down 1-0, the old Mexico team and the team pre-Germany win will be present.... and they won't be able to even get it close.
Love Sweden here +0.5. Even if they go down 1-0, they'll fight for the equalizer and possibly get it. However, if Mexico is down, likely it's lights out.
