<h2>Who has their “Giddy Up” during Week 1-4 in the CFL?</h2>
The main notion during the start of a CFL season is that the defense is always ahead of the offense and that’s why there’s more value in playing the under during the first few weeks of the CFL season. Let’s look into the numbers a bit more and see if this mainframe thinking is fact or fiction.
Going back to 1996, here’s the combined record of how each team did in different roles.
<pre>
Situations (week 1-4) ATS Winners SU Winners Over/unders
Home Teams 65-83-15 78-72-1 68-79-4
Away Teams 83-65-15 72-78-1 68-79-4
Home Favorites 38-53-4 63-29-0 41-48-3
Home Underdogs 25-25-9 12-38-1 25-26-0
Away Favorites 25-25-9 38-12-1 25-26-0
Away Underdogs 53-38-4 29-63-0 41-48-3
</pre>
The chart above clearly demonstrates that the favorites have been more successful getting the outright straight up win, but they have not done well covering the spread.
Home teams are 78-72-1 SU in home games from 1996 to 2004, while Home Favorites are 63-29 SU. Surprisingly, the Away Favorites are 38-12-1 SU, as you would think, it should take teams a few games to gel early in the season and winning on the road right off the hop is not an easy task.
Below you will find a few CFL systems that stand out and it’s a good idea to keep your eye out for these situations in the first 4 weeks of the 2005 CFL season.
Not that this is a huge surprise concerning big home favorites winning SU, but here’s a system trend that affects a West Coast team during the first 4 weeks of a season. When a team is a Road Underdog of +10.0 or more, they are 3-21 SU. However, the 3 teams that won as a +10.0 or more road underdog since 1996 were Hamilton over B.C., as the Tiger cats won 38-36 as a +10.5 point road dog last June 18th 2004. Then on July 10th 1997, B.C. pulled the upset over Edmonton in a 41-31 victory as a +10.5 point road dog and finally, Winnipeg outlasted B.C. 30-18 on July 29, 1999 as a +16.0 point road dog. Did you noticed, B.C. were involved in all 3 games? One has to wonder if a team from the west coast is in a disadvantage at the beginning of a season.
Here’s another interesting statistic during Week 1 to 4. When a Home team is a +7.0 to +9.5 home underdog in the CFL, they are 0-12-1 SU. Finally, when a road team is an away underdog of +10.0 or more, the OVER is 12-1 since 1997.
Keep in mind, the stats above are “system” trends and hold more weight then individual team trends. As, each team individually has reacted differently during the first 4 weeks of a CFL season.
Here’s a team review on how each club has done during the first 4 weeks of the CFL season.
<b>- Montreal:</b> The Alouettes have been fast starters, as they are 29-7 SU from week 1 to week 4. They are 12-5 SU at home, 17-2 SU on the road, 12-2 SU as a home favorite and 13-0 as an away favorite. However, they’ve been involved in some low scoring games the first 4 weeks of the season since ‘97, as the UNDER is 23-13 for Montreal.
<b>- Ottawa:</b> The Renegades/Rough Riders have been doing well as Home Underdogs the past few season and they are 5-1 ATS in this role during week 1 to week 4. Plus, as an Away Dog, the Gades are a poor 2-5 ATS and 1-6 SU.
<b>- Hamilton:</b> The Tiger-Cats have been a defensive club the first 4 weeks of a season, as the UNDER is 22-13-1 and have been hitting 75% of their wins as a Home Favorite at Ivor Wynne by going 9-3 SU.
<b>- Toronto:</b> The Argos have been a horrible ATS team the first 4 weeks of the season throughout the last 9 years, as they are 12-24 ATS, but this could be blamed on being in a media frenzy city where they get tons of press coverage, and are victims to media hype. Plus, Toronto have always been known for their great defenses, as the UNDER is 14-4 at home through week 1 to 4 and 6-0 as a Home Underdog.
<b>- Edmonton:</b> Here’s a bit of a surprise, the Edmonton Eskimos are only 2 game above .500 the first 4 weeks of a season at 19-17 SU and 16-20 ATS. Furthermore, as an Away Underdog, Edmonton is 3-8 SU the first 4 weeks of a season since 1997.
<b>- Calgary:</b> The Stamps have a Jekkyl and Hyde type team at McMahon Stadium. When Calgary is a Home Favorite the first 4 weeks of a regular season, they are 10-2 SU. However, they’re batting a thousand as a Home Underdog at 0-6 SU. Saskatchewan: Here’s the diamond in the rough you’ve been waiting for! When the Saskatchewan Rough Riders are a Home Underdog during week 1 to 4 of a CFL season, they are 9-2 ATS and the OVER is 10-1. In fact, the OVER is 14-4 at Taylor Field during that same period. Keeping with the Underdog theme, Saskatchewan is 11-4 ATS as an away dog during the first month of CFL Football the past 8 years.
<b>- B.C.Lions:</b> There must be something with Big City teams playing in a big media markets, as the Lions have the same problems the Argos have in the first 4 weeks of the season In fact, when the B.C. Lions are a Home Favorite, they are 3-10-1 ATS.
<b>- Winnipeg:</b> One thing is for sure in the first 4 weeks of a regular CFL season, don’t ask the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win a game for you as a Home Underdog, they are 0-9 SU in this situation since ‘96.
You now have your official starters kit to kick off the 2005 CFL season campaign and as you can see, your edge is with dogs and the OVER in some markets.
The main notion during the start of a CFL season is that the defense is always ahead of the offense and that’s why there’s more value in playing the under during the first few weeks of the CFL season. Let’s look into the numbers a bit more and see if this mainframe thinking is fact or fiction.
Going back to 1996, here’s the combined record of how each team did in different roles.
<pre>
Situations (week 1-4) ATS Winners SU Winners Over/unders
Home Teams 65-83-15 78-72-1 68-79-4
Away Teams 83-65-15 72-78-1 68-79-4
Home Favorites 38-53-4 63-29-0 41-48-3
Home Underdogs 25-25-9 12-38-1 25-26-0
Away Favorites 25-25-9 38-12-1 25-26-0
Away Underdogs 53-38-4 29-63-0 41-48-3
</pre>
The chart above clearly demonstrates that the favorites have been more successful getting the outright straight up win, but they have not done well covering the spread.
Home teams are 78-72-1 SU in home games from 1996 to 2004, while Home Favorites are 63-29 SU. Surprisingly, the Away Favorites are 38-12-1 SU, as you would think, it should take teams a few games to gel early in the season and winning on the road right off the hop is not an easy task.
Below you will find a few CFL systems that stand out and it’s a good idea to keep your eye out for these situations in the first 4 weeks of the 2005 CFL season.
Not that this is a huge surprise concerning big home favorites winning SU, but here’s a system trend that affects a West Coast team during the first 4 weeks of a season. When a team is a Road Underdog of +10.0 or more, they are 3-21 SU. However, the 3 teams that won as a +10.0 or more road underdog since 1996 were Hamilton over B.C., as the Tiger cats won 38-36 as a +10.5 point road dog last June 18th 2004. Then on July 10th 1997, B.C. pulled the upset over Edmonton in a 41-31 victory as a +10.5 point road dog and finally, Winnipeg outlasted B.C. 30-18 on July 29, 1999 as a +16.0 point road dog. Did you noticed, B.C. were involved in all 3 games? One has to wonder if a team from the west coast is in a disadvantage at the beginning of a season.
Here’s another interesting statistic during Week 1 to 4. When a Home team is a +7.0 to +9.5 home underdog in the CFL, they are 0-12-1 SU. Finally, when a road team is an away underdog of +10.0 or more, the OVER is 12-1 since 1997.
Keep in mind, the stats above are “system” trends and hold more weight then individual team trends. As, each team individually has reacted differently during the first 4 weeks of a CFL season.
Here’s a team review on how each club has done during the first 4 weeks of the CFL season.
<b>- Montreal:</b> The Alouettes have been fast starters, as they are 29-7 SU from week 1 to week 4. They are 12-5 SU at home, 17-2 SU on the road, 12-2 SU as a home favorite and 13-0 as an away favorite. However, they’ve been involved in some low scoring games the first 4 weeks of the season since ‘97, as the UNDER is 23-13 for Montreal.
<b>- Ottawa:</b> The Renegades/Rough Riders have been doing well as Home Underdogs the past few season and they are 5-1 ATS in this role during week 1 to week 4. Plus, as an Away Dog, the Gades are a poor 2-5 ATS and 1-6 SU.
<b>- Hamilton:</b> The Tiger-Cats have been a defensive club the first 4 weeks of a season, as the UNDER is 22-13-1 and have been hitting 75% of their wins as a Home Favorite at Ivor Wynne by going 9-3 SU.
<b>- Toronto:</b> The Argos have been a horrible ATS team the first 4 weeks of the season throughout the last 9 years, as they are 12-24 ATS, but this could be blamed on being in a media frenzy city where they get tons of press coverage, and are victims to media hype. Plus, Toronto have always been known for their great defenses, as the UNDER is 14-4 at home through week 1 to 4 and 6-0 as a Home Underdog.
<b>- Edmonton:</b> Here’s a bit of a surprise, the Edmonton Eskimos are only 2 game above .500 the first 4 weeks of a season at 19-17 SU and 16-20 ATS. Furthermore, as an Away Underdog, Edmonton is 3-8 SU the first 4 weeks of a season since 1997.
<b>- Calgary:</b> The Stamps have a Jekkyl and Hyde type team at McMahon Stadium. When Calgary is a Home Favorite the first 4 weeks of a regular season, they are 10-2 SU. However, they’re batting a thousand as a Home Underdog at 0-6 SU. Saskatchewan: Here’s the diamond in the rough you’ve been waiting for! When the Saskatchewan Rough Riders are a Home Underdog during week 1 to 4 of a CFL season, they are 9-2 ATS and the OVER is 10-1. In fact, the OVER is 14-4 at Taylor Field during that same period. Keeping with the Underdog theme, Saskatchewan is 11-4 ATS as an away dog during the first month of CFL Football the past 8 years.
<b>- B.C.Lions:</b> There must be something with Big City teams playing in a big media markets, as the Lions have the same problems the Argos have in the first 4 weeks of the season In fact, when the B.C. Lions are a Home Favorite, they are 3-10-1 ATS.
<b>- Winnipeg:</b> One thing is for sure in the first 4 weeks of a regular CFL season, don’t ask the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win a game for you as a Home Underdog, they are 0-9 SU in this situation since ‘96.
You now have your official starters kit to kick off the 2005 CFL season campaign and as you can see, your edge is with dogs and the OVER in some markets.
