When no one wants to take the favorite...

[letsgohoosiers]

Yale might have been a play. It's a 7:00 start and I only have the data from Sports Insights that is a 20 minute delay. At 6:40 it was 50-50 percentage wise with Yale at -9.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Yale was NOT a play. They're up 14 at half.

San Diego is 45% as -14. They are a 9:00 start. Keep an eye out for this one.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I'm going to play San Diego. It's 47% at 8:40.

 

[goblue12]

Looks like we should be keeping an eagle eye on Miami (FL) tomorrow morning?

 

[Kaboom]

Backtracked throughout the season:

BET on any 8.5+ point favorite with less than 50% on them.

ALL GAMES 95-66-4 (59%)
BCS GAMES 40-19-2 (68%)
MM GAMES 55-47-2 (54%)

Looks like this works great with big name teams.

What does BCS and MM games stand for ? Thanks !!

 

[goblue12]

What does BCS and MM games stand for ? Thanks !!

BCS Conferences (BCS): Teams in the Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, or Pac 10
Mid-Majors (MM): Everyone else

 

[Kaboom]

BCS Conferences (BCS): Teams in the Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, or Pac 10
Mid-Majors (MM): Everyone else

Thanks Blue !! Lookin at 2 so far that qualify Central Fla 42 % and BYU 31 %

 

[CycloneFan]

Where are you pulling these percentages from? I see the first two lost, but I still like your theory. Keep playing it. BOL!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Percentages are from Sports Insights.

Bad night for me in CBB. Ended up losing my Harvard PK bet on a last second shot, San Diego fails to cover, and Wofford decides to spot 14 points before the game starts.

Opposite story for the NBA though

I'll post plays here.

 

[yort05]

keep us updated...

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I have a very similar system going in the NBA, except the NBA incorporated reverse line movement.

Decided to apply RLM to NCAAB and the record was 36-17 (68%) on the season when the public was on the 8.5 point or larger dog yet the favorite's line grew.

Doesn't mean only play RLM games, as it's still hitting at a 55% clip without RLM, but to add units to these games just as you add units to BCS games.

 

[yort05]

As of right now, I have BYU, C.Florida, Oklahoma, K.State and Memphis. When do we lock these in?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

As of right now, I have BYU, C.Florida, Oklahoma, K.State and Memphis. When do we lock these in?

Here's the games I see:

<table style="width: 454px; height: 60px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e161223" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e161223', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"> <td id="score" width="50">3/7
1:30P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">531 Colorado
532 Kansas State
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1244
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">54%
46%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">142 -105
-17-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">132.5 -105
-17-105
</td> </tr></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table><table style="width: 452px; height: 78px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e161298" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e161298', event)" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);"> <td id="score" width="50">3/7
7:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">583 East Carolina
584 Central Florida
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">135
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">62%
38%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">148.5 -105
-10-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">148 -105
-10-105
</td> </tr></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table>
<table style="width: 450px; height: 60px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e161343" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e161343', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <td id="score" width="50">3/7
9:00P
</td> <td id="team" width="135">613 Air Force
614 B.Y.U.
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">214
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">66%
34%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">128 -105
-22-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">127.5 -105
-21.5-105
</td> </tr></tbody></table>

Do not bet on the games until the line closes. The system is dependent on the closing number and closing percentages. Closing numbers are easily obtained via SBRlines.com. Closing percentages are obtained via SportsInsights if you have the premium service for $79. I'm too cheap to pay that, so I just take the delayed percentages from 20 minutes before.

What I would recommend is having Sports Insights open in one window, and your Sportsbook open in another. At game time, refresh Sports Insights to get the update from 20 minutes ago (so for the KSU game refresh at 1:30 to get the 1:10 update) and if the percentages are fine then place the bet.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Miami -8.5 is worth watching. 47% on them at the 11:10 update.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Play: Miami FL -8.5 (2 units = BCS team)

 

[Kaboom]

I'm on it .. Bring it !!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Pittsburgh -4 (3 units = BCS and RLM)

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Sorry I didn't get that earlier guys, it's hard for me to place my bets and get the info out to you in a few minutes.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

BTW - LOVE Memphis at 1:00. Percentages are only 50-50 so it doesn't qualify for this system (yet), but here's what I got:

BET on any mid major favorite of 24 points or more (9-1 since January 18th)

 

[letsgohoosiers]

OK, Pittsburgh was NOT a system play (duh, it wasn't 8.5 points).

For anyone who somehow followed, I apologize.