Disclaimer #1: These are purely action plays. I unloaded 10 units on NE last week and ca$hed, but I don't like any of these plays enough to lay that much jack, so take these picks with a grain of salt, maybe for 1 unit.
Disclaimer #2: You will see below that I am fading all public opinion, so I advise you to wait until gametime to get the best available lines and totals.
6 point teaser Atl +11 and OVER 32.5
I love Philly in this game.....the problem is, so does everyone else. That bothers me. I had considered teasing Philly to +1, but I don't want to break the golden rule of not teasing across "the zero line," and there is usually better value in teasing an underdog, even one as seemingly outmatched as the Falcons.
As for the over, yeah yeah, I know it's going to snow a foot in Philly on Sunday, but after watching Oakland and Denver score 49 points (32 in the 2nd half!) in a snowstorm on Nov. 28, I'm not convinced that anything short of a rain-soaked field slows down scoring. (I lost a nickel on that under! Can you tell that it made a lasting impression on me?) These 2 teams' respective games went over 32.5 total points 24 of 34 games this year. Despite the weather conditions, 32.5 seems like a steal when you consider this total started at 42, snow joke! (rimshot, cymbal)
6 point teaser Pitt +9 and OVER 29
NE is a ca$h cow and a covering machine. That being said, I don't like taking a road favorite against a good defense. I see NE winning 20-17 (yes, that score keeps coming up in these playoff games!) on a late field goal, so I don't have the stones to take Pitt +3, but I like them +9 at home.
Now, about that over.....NE is known as a great defensive team, but they also average 27 ppg on offense. The LOWEST offensive output for both of these teams this season is 13 points. That means if both NE and Pitt match their worst offensive games of this season, that is 26 points, dangerously close to the 29 needed for the teased over. Sure, it's possible the final score could be 2-0 on a safety, but I like the chances of going over 29.
Again, these are action plays going against the betting public....wait as long as you can to get the best value on lines and totals, and by all means don't bet the house on these plays, I don't need the guilt! GLTA - EL
Disclaimer #2: You will see below that I am fading all public opinion, so I advise you to wait until gametime to get the best available lines and totals.
6 point teaser Atl +11 and OVER 32.5
I love Philly in this game.....the problem is, so does everyone else. That bothers me. I had considered teasing Philly to +1, but I don't want to break the golden rule of not teasing across "the zero line," and there is usually better value in teasing an underdog, even one as seemingly outmatched as the Falcons.
As for the over, yeah yeah, I know it's going to snow a foot in Philly on Sunday, but after watching Oakland and Denver score 49 points (32 in the 2nd half!) in a snowstorm on Nov. 28, I'm not convinced that anything short of a rain-soaked field slows down scoring. (I lost a nickel on that under! Can you tell that it made a lasting impression on me?) These 2 teams' respective games went over 32.5 total points 24 of 34 games this year. Despite the weather conditions, 32.5 seems like a steal when you consider this total started at 42, snow joke! (rimshot, cymbal)
6 point teaser Pitt +9 and OVER 29
NE is a ca$h cow and a covering machine. That being said, I don't like taking a road favorite against a good defense. I see NE winning 20-17 (yes, that score keeps coming up in these playoff games!) on a late field goal, so I don't have the stones to take Pitt +3, but I like them +9 at home.
Now, about that over.....NE is known as a great defensive team, but they also average 27 ppg on offense. The LOWEST offensive output for both of these teams this season is 13 points. That means if both NE and Pitt match their worst offensive games of this season, that is 26 points, dangerously close to the 29 needed for the teased over. Sure, it's possible the final score could be 2-0 on a safety, but I like the chances of going over 29.
Again, these are action plays going against the betting public....wait as long as you can to get the best value on lines and totals, and by all means don't bet the house on these plays, I don't need the guilt! GLTA - EL
