What pct of weekend poker players at the $1-2 level have winning years, best guess?

[SteakorBeans]

If no one makes money, then where does that $1000 go?

Low limit poker can be beat for profit but its hard to overcome the rake.

Example is a 4-8 limit game at a vegas locals casino.

Game is regulars who play fast with a fast dealer putting out 35 hands per hour, and tip $1 to $2 dollars per hand.

Standard buy in is $100 X 10 = $1000

Rake= $4 max +$1 Jackpot, Average $3.5 per hand (small pots, no flops)
Tip = $1.5 per hand

So we have $5 X 35 = $175 per hour
I'll also add tips to cocktail waitresses $1 per player per hour(this comes off table)

So we have $185 per hour being taken off the table.

So if the same 10 people play 5.5 hours, they would all be broke.

 

[PO69]

NO DEALER deals 35 hands an hour! A really fast dealer will deal around 25 hands per hour.


And I was talking about 5-5 no limit above. Not too many guys in 5-5 tip more than $1 a hand.

In your example above, only 1 player would be broke out of 10

 

[PO69]

BUt 5-5 no limit is a slower game. If a dealer can even deal 20 hands an hour then they are lucky. Most dealers deal around 17 hands per hour. You have to factor in buy-ins, calls to the floor, etc. It can be a slow game.


Thus at

18 hands per hour x $5 rake= $90 per hour
$18 in tips as well
$18 towards the jackpot.


Also, if there is no flop, there is no drop at all

 

[SteakorBeans]

I was using my example to make a point about rake and tips.
I agree with you about it not being as big a factor in $5NL.

If you go to Redrock or Orleans and get in a fast game, 35 hands per hour is do able. I play about 1500 hours a year and have tried to figure out how much dealers make. Some do pretty good.

 

[PO69]

Most dealers at the local tribal casino near my house make between $35,000-50000 a year.

Now that is assuming that they are a fulltime dealer. And I am not counting in tips from jackpots

 

[ParanoidAndroid]

The win rates for NL are very hard to figure out because each table plays differently. Some will play like 3/6 with the occassional big pot and others will play like 10/20 with little action, but more frequent big pots because of the early agressive play.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

I was using my example to make a point about rake and tips.
I agree with you about it not being as big a factor in $5NL.

If you go to Redrock or Orleans and get in a fast game, 35 hands per hour is do able. I play about 1500 hours a year and have tried to figure out how much dealers make. Some do pretty good.

I believe that Red Rock has the fastest dealers in Vegas. I would see a dealer come in and easily get 25 hands in per half hour. That is $50 in tips per hour averaging $1 a hand tip. These dealers could easily get into the $80k range or better.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

I'd say roughly 5% of poker players at the $1-2 level are winners.



PO - most dealers will easily deal 35 hands per hour in Texas HE. Split pot games are slower, even still they will be close to that amount. Only exceptions are break in dealers or those dealing to a table of nontippers.

 

[PO69]

I am sorry, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for a dealer to deal 25 hands in 30 minutes! Maybe if only 2 players are at the table. It takes AT LEAST 30 seconds to riffle and shuffle then cut the deck.


If you are playing in a game that has more than 30 hands in an hour, then everyone must checking around with almost no raises. Even at an EXTREMELY FAST table, it takes 30 seconds between each street and flop

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

I said 35 hands an hour, not 25 per half hour. I used to hire dealers for both an offshore boat we had the poker concession on, and an illegal cardroom I used to run. I know pretty well what dealers can do. Yes, some of it is reliant on the players but a good dealer can push the action and keep the cards in the air as they say. Again, just telling you from first hand experience that most dealers can deal 35 hands an hour in HE without much problem.

 

[MrMore]

NO DEALER deals 35 hands an hour! A really fast dealer will deal around 25 hands per hour.

This is wrong. I wouldn't hire a dealer that couldn't deal 35/hr, especially with shuffling machines. Not that I've hired dealers in the last 15 years.

 

[PO69]

I play around 4000 hands of live poker every month. All I can say is that I NEVER play at a table that deals more than 25 hands an hour, and most deal around 19 hands an hour.


Of course this is no limit, so the decisions are more numerous.


I saw an article in a poker magazine around 3 months ago that was talking about dealing. They were telling dealers to practice so that they could deal 23 hands per hour instead of the norm at 19.



I want to see what PPP says about this. I know that he plays alot of $4-8 limit. Of course limit will be faster though

 

[PO69]

I am talking about places that DO NOT have automatic shuffling machines though

 

[MrMore]

One thing about PM's question is that he's talking about a fairly short run of play. Maybe 400 hours of play. So there's still enough variance there to allow for some losing players to have winning years.

When NL first stormed the rooms, maybe 5 years ago, I decided to switch over from limit, and the first thing I did was put in a few hundred hours playing small games, because I was being cautious about this very different form of poker.

I'd estimate, from viewing the quality of play, that maybe 5% would nit-grind their way to profits, long run, and about another 5% would break-even. But for just a year, probably 7-8% would be winners, because there would be some false winners in the mix.

Also, probably, for a player who isn't good enough to make more money playing 2/5, and so doesn't step up, but is otherwise the best regular in the 1/2 games, I'd say the max expectation is ~$20/hr.

A friend who I know from 5/10, who went bust at that level, has moved to Vegas and is grinding up a new BR at 1/2, and he's been making ~$25/hr, over a large sample, but he's probably good enough to beat 2/5, so he'd be a little better than the average 1/2 grinder.

So maybe, for every couple of 1/2 games, that is, every 18-20 players, you'll find 1 guy good enough to beat 2/5, who's a little bust or just taking a day off from higher or just sat while waiting for a 2/5 and decided to just stay.

Then you'll find another guy who's a committed and winning 1/2 grinder.

You'll find a third guy who's more or less a breakeven player.

And the rest will be long run losers, but one of whom will have a winning year on luck alone.

 

[MrMore]

I mean, one thing about Ice's question.