I was just saying was all it would take is a 4% change in success rate to greatly change the game.
its not just 1 point.
All points are not equal.
You can't look at it like an NBA point
In the NFL you can't judge it like that.
I was just saying was all it would take is a 4% change in success rate to greatly change the game.
its not just 1 point.
All points are not equal.
You can't look at it like an NBA point
In the NFL you can't judge it like that.
I think you are overrating how narrow the difference is between a 33 yard FG and a 20 yard FG
I'll look it up but we're likely talking like 90% accuracy vs 99% accuracy. At some point there would be a break even point where it would be better to go for 2 than kick a 33 yard FG but I'm not sure what that % is.
If FG attempts stay the same you are talking a very small difference though.
I'll look it up but we're likely talking like 90% accuracy vs 99% accuracy. At some point there would be a break even point where it would be better to go for 2 than kick a 33 yard FG but I'm not sure what that % is.
If FG attempts stay the same you are talking a very small difference though.
Last year from between 30-35 was 95%
XP is 99%
So the value of an XP is now worth .95pts instead of .99pts
I don't think you will see much change in game theory over this besides from someone like C Kelly. The EV just doesn't change much and most coaches will play it conservative. This is a league where coaches don't go for it on 4th and 1 at the 45 yard line and you think they're gonna start going for 2 because XPs are 4% less of a gimme?
XP is 99%
So the value of an XP is now worth .95pts instead of .99pts
I don't think you will see much change in game theory over this besides from someone like C Kelly. The EV just doesn't change much and most coaches will play it conservative. This is a league where coaches don't go for it on 4th and 1 at the 45 yard line and you think they're gonna start going for 2 because XPs are 4% less of a gimme?
Don't know what the number was last season "(maybe even higher) but 2 years ago there was only 5 missed attempted extra points in the entire season.
We are not talking about 99%. That's more like 99.8%
That's closer to 100 then it is 99.
And dropping all the way down from 99.8% or so down to 90% is huge .
That will change the game.
So you go from
missing 1 out of every 200 extra points
down to missing 1 out of 10
You don't think that's significant?
We are not talking about 99%. That's more like 99.8%
That's closer to 100 then it is 99.
And dropping all the way down from 99.8% or so down to 90% is huge .
That will change the game.
So you go from
missing 1 out of every 200 extra points
down to missing 1 out of 10
You don't think that's significant?
But once someone missed that extra point it changes the entire game for the rest of the game.
In football you can't give equal value to all points.
Yes that's also part of it and it won't be just chip kelly
The difference in 1/22 vs 1/200 is huge.
Thats not counting the extra attempts at 2.
Once that first XP is missed that will probably cause the team that missed the 1 to go for 2 later on in the game to make up for it.
Thats more missed extra points.
And 1 point is almost = to 3 points in this case.
Late in a game you can say that 1 point is worth 4 points .
If a team is down 7 late and score a TD and miss the extra point that basically made all 6 points they scored meaningless .
So you can't assign equal value to every point in the NFL
Thats not counting the extra attempts at 2.
Once that first XP is missed that will probably cause the team that missed the 1 to go for 2 later on in the game to make up for it.
Thats more missed extra points.
And 1 point is almost = to 3 points in this case.
Late in a game you can say that 1 point is worth 4 points .
If a team is down 7 late and score a TD and miss the extra point that basically made all 6 points they scored meaningless .
So you can't assign equal value to every point in the NFL
Yeah that is potentially huge that there is a 4% chance you can miss the XP compared to basically .2%, however, I don't see more teams going for 2.
We're talking .96 EP vs .99 EP going for 2. A microscopic edge that is gonna invite tons of criticism if it doesn't work. NFL coaches aren't inviting that type of scrutiny over something so small.
We're talking .96 EP vs .99 EP going for 2. A microscopic edge that is gonna invite tons of criticism if it doesn't work. NFL coaches aren't inviting that type of scrutiny over something so small.
