what is the point of 'betting steam'?

jerseymike111 · Oct 23, 2003

When your "betting steam"
Are you talking about looking at the opening line[say in collage baskets]and looking what the line is in the morning..or looking for it during the day...or say 1 hour before gametime?
I should know more about this ,but i don't.
I figure out who i like,then look for the best line i can get thru one of my outs.

neilm · Oct 23, 2003

"neilm,

You never mentioned how far away from the best number the steam chaser is when calculating that ficticious 55% winning percentage ..."

Ken,

By chasing steam I was referring to getting down at the original number at a slower moving copying book or a real book that moves on action.

While the posting forums are filled with anecdotal truisms taken as gospel and often having little or no basis in reality, I did not just make that 55+% up. I blended the recent past results vs. opener of moves of two or more points in NCAA football.

Over the last 3 NCAA football seasons, moves as measured by the "Open" as displayed on Don Best (now they use CRIS openers) vs. the closing number at CRIS/OLY...

moves on sides of 2+ points....
vs. open 486-371-12 56.7%
vs. close 424-430-15 49.7%

So the 55+% I referenced was on the opener, true chasing of the original number, not up the ladder (for totals moves of 2+ it was 54.3%).

I have the numbers up the ladder but don't really feel like posting them. Suffice it to say, getting the original # will provide positive expectation bets and the further up the line you move the worse the steam chaser's expectation.

I was just trying to answer the poster's question wondering why people chase steam, which also serves to answer the question as to why people pay $550 a month for a line service, why books look down on steam chasing etc. and etc..

BTW I agree with you about both steam chasers and cloning bookmakers. Both cause a relative homogeneity in the marketplace and cause the discrepancies in lines available for a shopper to shrink hurting a bettor trying to place a bet on Team A at the best price.

TheGeneral+ · Oct 23, 2003

Good post neilm.

It is very time consuming to sit and try for all of the moves that happen. one must live by the screen to do so. This is one factor that makes it very hard for any average gambler to benefit from the moves. Not to mention having the availabilty of outs that do present the opportunity for a player to get down on the opening number.

Phaedrus · Nov 22, 2003

So, what about running away from the steam as opposed to chasing it; i.e. betting against a moving number?

Phaedrus

dimeplayersonly · Nov 22, 2003

PHAEDRUS...........effective when line movement has crossed key numbers......or lost value

ie......cal/stanford

cal -10...good
cal -12....bad

RobFunk · Nov 22, 2003

how about just ignoring it entirely as a factor.. .. there is no way "steam" makes a guy betting less than 1k a game a better player. steam plays? there may be as many as 30 of them in a day. this is tottaly useless to selective players. theyre playing percentages and an awful lot of them for the big overall.

oscar · Nov 22, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by kenuk:
it seems that books are especially on the lookout for players 'betting steam'

1. Depends on the book. Most books don't mind especially if they have already moved the line.

I'm not exactly sure what this is, but I think it's hitting a line in anticipation of an imminent move.

2. It's betting a game that has been bet by a sharp player/syndicate they respect. Most syndicates have "movers" working for them so they can bet as much as possible on a game. So when the bettor gives the word (the order) after the bet is made the sportsbook will move the line 1/2 point or more. The person betting the same game after the line has moved is betting steam and is the steam player.

but if you're not part of a syndicate, why would you do such a thing?

3. Syndicates don't, they create the steam. Since the advent of Don Best subscribers now can see the syndicate's plays because every shop will move the line at the same time turning the screen black. When a subscriber sees every shop go from 5 to 5.5 he makes a bet at 5.5 thus chasing the steam.

for example, if I see the RX screen books jumping toward one team, but I see that one screen book is lagging in moving its line, why would I jump on that book's line unless I had wanted that bet all along anyway? I mean, if I didn't like the bet at -4, why would I all-of-a-sudden like it simply because other books have moved to -5?

4. Beause you should assume that the syndicate is sharper than you and that they are on the right side.

do people actually look at these moves and think that whoever's behind them has superior knowledge?

5. yes
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>