What does the perfect fantasy baseball draft look like?
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
We would all love to be able to draft Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Troutor Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts. These are the top players in fantasy baseball and the guessing game for many starts at pick No. 3. I generally want to select first or last, narrow down the list of potential picks to three or four and then, choose two of them in quick fashion. It is just my thing. Picking last in the first round means no Trout or Betts, of course, but also, in theory, it does mean two of the top 11 players are yours, or for 12-team formats, two of the top 13. With no obvious first-round hierarchy after the big two stars, that works for me.
The annual "Perfect Draft" article usually has me choosing in the middle of each round, but since I prefer picking at the end, let us shift that direction. We can change the rules! We use ESPN ADP as our guide, and while no draft can really be perfect, the intention is clear. We want to construct a balanced squad with no obvious, statistical weakness, mixing in players young and old, durable and not so much, aiming for the potential to compete for the top in each of the statistical categories. It is hardly impossible. ESPN standard is 10 teams and points, but for these purposes, we shall go with a roto format.
Round 1-2 turn
Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros
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Turner ranks better on all our individual lists, but starting pitchers Chris Saleand Jacob deGrom have moved up and pushed him to No. 10 in latest ADP. Turner is awesome, and it is not merely the stolen bases. He hits for average, scores runs and there is ample power. It might seem odd to choose another shortstop-eligible but Bregman is another five-category contributor and multi-eligibility is never a bad thing. People get hurt. Speaking of, if being able to select Turner at No. 10 seems ridiculous to you, then shift to Cleveland Indiansshortstop Francisco Lindor, an acknowledged top-5 choice that has fallen outside the top 10 because of a calf injury. Perhaps he misses the first week or two, and perhaps he does not steal many bases early on, but I would be fine with him at this turn, too. Rostering Turner means that fewer stolen bases will need securing later on.
Round 3-4 turn
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians
I rank the former considerably better than this slot, again due to the five-category goodness. This would not be an awesome start to this team for sheer power, but these three hitters are young and terrific. I will accrue ample power. Bauer might be a bit of a reach at pick No. 31 but I do enjoy securing an ace and high-end starting pitching is gold in ADP. Remember, picking consecutively means it will be a while before you pick again, so acting sooner on a player that fits your team needs is OK. I do not count many aces.
Round 5-6 turn
Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Here comes some power! Castellanos has yet to deliver his first 30-homer, 100-RBI campaign, but he has been close, and two seasons of 157 games is attractive. Suarez comes off a 30-100 season, and while I prefer teammate Joey Votto in points leagues, and think his power comes back to normal levels, there are no such questions across the Cincinnati diamond. I thought about Arizona ace Zack Greinke here, a big K option, but I cannot pass up safe power. I did not consider a closer.
Round 7-8 turn
Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins
Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rosario goes at least a round earlier in my rankings, so I consider him a steal at pick No. 70. I also considered his teammate Nelson Cruz, a DH-only with safe power. Rosario is younger, and that matters, but I do not have any issue "clogging" the DH spot early. It is not clogging if you get 35 home runs. Taillon is a not quite a 200-strikeout option, unless he really makes strides, but his other numbers work and he can still improve.
Round 9-10 turn
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Mets
Travis Shaw, 2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers
I can find middle infield sleepers with question marks later on, but why bother if these fellows remain on the board? Cano can still hit; last year extrapolated to a full season is .303-20-100. Do not expect him to fall apart in the National League. This is not a keeper league. Shaw boasts consecutive seasons of 30-plus home runs, and I fail to see why he cannot make it three in a row. Multi-eligibility is always a plus, too, and that is why Shaw gets my nod over Mike Moustakas, who could/should also add the same second base eligibility. I still do not regret passing on saves, but by taking more bats, I have passed on good starters like Zack Wheeler and Miles Mikolas, the latter just misses being my Round 11 pick.
Round 11-12 turn
Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees
Charlie Morton, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
These right-handers combined for 57 starts a season ago, while striking out more than a hitter per inning each and protecting WHIP. Hey, if there were no concerns about injury, they would not be available this late. Nothing against Colorado's German Marquez, who was phenomenal considering his circumstances, but Tanaka and Morton are safer. By the way, I decided to leave out statistical lightning rod Adalberto Mondesi of the Kansas City Royals, because his ADP continues to rise, and I have him ranked considerably better than this. However, if you see Mondesi on the board after the 10th round, by all means go and get him. Yes, he might not hit above .250, but otherwise he could look, for fantasy purposes, a lot like Turner.
Round 13-14 turn
Jose Leclerc, RP, Texas Rangers
Ian Desmond, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies
Leclerc sure seems like an underrated saves option in ADP -- he comes off a dominant season, the Rangers committed long-term and he should double his saves total. Frankly, he should be going a few rounds prior to this. Desmond is different, of course, but still, being able to find 20-homer, 20-steal options -- which he has achieved five of the past seven seasons -- this late are unusual. Nobody enjoys the batting average, but the Rockies are going to play him regularly, and while we can debate the merits of that intention, all we care about are the numbers.
Round 15-16 turn
Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
I like quite a few of the players in this range of picks, actually. I am passing up my big starting pitcher sleeper (Shane Bieber) and several young hitters with upside (Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada) to secure a second safe closer and an old first baseman that sure looks like he is going to bounce back, health permitting. I am not concerned about Giles. The role is his and he misses plenty of bats. It beats relying on Wade Davis or Cody Allen. Cabrera could be the new Nelson Cruz, with a bit less power and a .300 batting average.
Round 17-18 turn
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Think about how much earlier one had to pounce to secure these players a year ago, and then ask yourself, what really changed? Buxton went in Round 7. Braun was a bit later. I neither promise health or that either returns to statistical prominence, but Buxton is certainly capable of his 2017 stats, when he hit .253 with 16 home runs and 29 steals. Braun misses many games these days, but we cannot overlook the 37 home runs and 23 steals over the past two truncated seasons. This fantasy team is now set on offense except at catcher, which we secure at the very end, and it competes in each category, including batting average. Buxton/Braun are not winning batting titles, but there are potential .300 hitters here, including Cabrera, Cano, Bregman and others.
Round 19-20 turn
Collin McHugh, RP, Houston Astros
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
The former slides right back into the rotation after a year in relief, while the latter took off after the trade from Pittsburgh and a guarantee of starting. McHugh was a reliable starter for several seasons before team depth forced him into a relief role, which he starred in, perhaps thanks to a combination of higher velocity and a better slider. Glasnow is young and walks are a problem, but he misses bats. Whether he can go deeper into games to win them is a mild concern, but at this point of a draft, no upside choices are bad ones.
Round 21-22 turn
Ross Stripling, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Archie Bradley, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stripling has pitched well in multiple roles the past two seasons, and selecting him at all is under the presumption Clayton Kershaw misses time with injury, which seems like a safe one at this point. Stripling's durability is far from safe, but he was 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 at the All-Star break last season. That will work. With Bradley, it is about the saves. I like to leave a 10-team draft with three strikeout closers. It will not be difficult to find saves during the season. If not Bradley at this spot, then Jordan Hicks serves a similar purpose, though likely with fewer saves.
Round 23-24 turn
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics
Chacin finished last season as the No. 27 starting pitcher on the Player Rater, boasting consecutive seasons of durability (67 starts) and near-identical peripheral numbers. He is not an ace, nor a big strikeout option, but I like to have a starter or two on the bench to plug in whenever, and Chacin performs for a good club and still gets no respect. Laureano looks like a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option, and this late in a draft, that is a bargain, especially with several outfielders likely to miss time at some point.
Round 25
Francisco Mejia, C, San Diego Padres:
Someone has to catch the baseball and it seems to make perfect sense, at this point, to grab a high-upside option rather than a boring veteran like Tucker Barnhart or Jonathan Lucroy (ah, once upon a time). Mejia is one of the better upside choices in that regard. We know he can hit, and he has boasted impressive power the past few weeks. We think the Padres intend for him to catch long-term. If it is not going well in mid-April, perhaps just move on to whomever is playing well and stream the position. Welington Castillo, Austin Barnes and one of the Nationals works for me as well.
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
We would all love to be able to draft Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Troutor Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts. These are the top players in fantasy baseball and the guessing game for many starts at pick No. 3. I generally want to select first or last, narrow down the list of potential picks to three or four and then, choose two of them in quick fashion. It is just my thing. Picking last in the first round means no Trout or Betts, of course, but also, in theory, it does mean two of the top 11 players are yours, or for 12-team formats, two of the top 13. With no obvious first-round hierarchy after the big two stars, that works for me.
The annual "Perfect Draft" article usually has me choosing in the middle of each round, but since I prefer picking at the end, let us shift that direction. We can change the rules! We use ESPN ADP as our guide, and while no draft can really be perfect, the intention is clear. We want to construct a balanced squad with no obvious, statistical weakness, mixing in players young and old, durable and not so much, aiming for the potential to compete for the top in each of the statistical categories. It is hardly impossible. ESPN standard is 10 teams and points, but for these purposes, we shall go with a roto format.
Round 1-2 turn
Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Turner ranks better on all our individual lists, but starting pitchers Chris Saleand Jacob deGrom have moved up and pushed him to No. 10 in latest ADP. Turner is awesome, and it is not merely the stolen bases. He hits for average, scores runs and there is ample power. It might seem odd to choose another shortstop-eligible but Bregman is another five-category contributor and multi-eligibility is never a bad thing. People get hurt. Speaking of, if being able to select Turner at No. 10 seems ridiculous to you, then shift to Cleveland Indiansshortstop Francisco Lindor, an acknowledged top-5 choice that has fallen outside the top 10 because of a calf injury. Perhaps he misses the first week or two, and perhaps he does not steal many bases early on, but I would be fine with him at this turn, too. Rostering Turner means that fewer stolen bases will need securing later on.
Round 3-4 turn
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians
I rank the former considerably better than this slot, again due to the five-category goodness. This would not be an awesome start to this team for sheer power, but these three hitters are young and terrific. I will accrue ample power. Bauer might be a bit of a reach at pick No. 31 but I do enjoy securing an ace and high-end starting pitching is gold in ADP. Remember, picking consecutively means it will be a while before you pick again, so acting sooner on a player that fits your team needs is OK. I do not count many aces.
Round 5-6 turn
Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Here comes some power! Castellanos has yet to deliver his first 30-homer, 100-RBI campaign, but he has been close, and two seasons of 157 games is attractive. Suarez comes off a 30-100 season, and while I prefer teammate Joey Votto in points leagues, and think his power comes back to normal levels, there are no such questions across the Cincinnati diamond. I thought about Arizona ace Zack Greinke here, a big K option, but I cannot pass up safe power. I did not consider a closer.
Round 7-8 turn
Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins
Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rosario goes at least a round earlier in my rankings, so I consider him a steal at pick No. 70. I also considered his teammate Nelson Cruz, a DH-only with safe power. Rosario is younger, and that matters, but I do not have any issue "clogging" the DH spot early. It is not clogging if you get 35 home runs. Taillon is a not quite a 200-strikeout option, unless he really makes strides, but his other numbers work and he can still improve.
Round 9-10 turn
Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Mets
Travis Shaw, 2B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers
I can find middle infield sleepers with question marks later on, but why bother if these fellows remain on the board? Cano can still hit; last year extrapolated to a full season is .303-20-100. Do not expect him to fall apart in the National League. This is not a keeper league. Shaw boasts consecutive seasons of 30-plus home runs, and I fail to see why he cannot make it three in a row. Multi-eligibility is always a plus, too, and that is why Shaw gets my nod over Mike Moustakas, who could/should also add the same second base eligibility. I still do not regret passing on saves, but by taking more bats, I have passed on good starters like Zack Wheeler and Miles Mikolas, the latter just misses being my Round 11 pick.
Round 11-12 turn
Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees
Charlie Morton, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
These right-handers combined for 57 starts a season ago, while striking out more than a hitter per inning each and protecting WHIP. Hey, if there were no concerns about injury, they would not be available this late. Nothing against Colorado's German Marquez, who was phenomenal considering his circumstances, but Tanaka and Morton are safer. By the way, I decided to leave out statistical lightning rod Adalberto Mondesi of the Kansas City Royals, because his ADP continues to rise, and I have him ranked considerably better than this. However, if you see Mondesi on the board after the 10th round, by all means go and get him. Yes, he might not hit above .250, but otherwise he could look, for fantasy purposes, a lot like Turner.
Round 13-14 turn
Jose Leclerc, RP, Texas Rangers
Ian Desmond, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies
Leclerc sure seems like an underrated saves option in ADP -- he comes off a dominant season, the Rangers committed long-term and he should double his saves total. Frankly, he should be going a few rounds prior to this. Desmond is different, of course, but still, being able to find 20-homer, 20-steal options -- which he has achieved five of the past seven seasons -- this late are unusual. Nobody enjoys the batting average, but the Rockies are going to play him regularly, and while we can debate the merits of that intention, all we care about are the numbers.
Round 15-16 turn
Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
I like quite a few of the players in this range of picks, actually. I am passing up my big starting pitcher sleeper (Shane Bieber) and several young hitters with upside (Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada) to secure a second safe closer and an old first baseman that sure looks like he is going to bounce back, health permitting. I am not concerned about Giles. The role is his and he misses plenty of bats. It beats relying on Wade Davis or Cody Allen. Cabrera could be the new Nelson Cruz, with a bit less power and a .300 batting average.
Round 17-18 turn
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Think about how much earlier one had to pounce to secure these players a year ago, and then ask yourself, what really changed? Buxton went in Round 7. Braun was a bit later. I neither promise health or that either returns to statistical prominence, but Buxton is certainly capable of his 2017 stats, when he hit .253 with 16 home runs and 29 steals. Braun misses many games these days, but we cannot overlook the 37 home runs and 23 steals over the past two truncated seasons. This fantasy team is now set on offense except at catcher, which we secure at the very end, and it competes in each category, including batting average. Buxton/Braun are not winning batting titles, but there are potential .300 hitters here, including Cabrera, Cano, Bregman and others.
Round 19-20 turn
Collin McHugh, RP, Houston Astros
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
The former slides right back into the rotation after a year in relief, while the latter took off after the trade from Pittsburgh and a guarantee of starting. McHugh was a reliable starter for several seasons before team depth forced him into a relief role, which he starred in, perhaps thanks to a combination of higher velocity and a better slider. Glasnow is young and walks are a problem, but he misses bats. Whether he can go deeper into games to win them is a mild concern, but at this point of a draft, no upside choices are bad ones.
Round 21-22 turn
Ross Stripling, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Archie Bradley, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stripling has pitched well in multiple roles the past two seasons, and selecting him at all is under the presumption Clayton Kershaw misses time with injury, which seems like a safe one at this point. Stripling's durability is far from safe, but he was 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 at the All-Star break last season. That will work. With Bradley, it is about the saves. I like to leave a 10-team draft with three strikeout closers. It will not be difficult to find saves during the season. If not Bradley at this spot, then Jordan Hicks serves a similar purpose, though likely with fewer saves.
Round 23-24 turn
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics
Chacin finished last season as the No. 27 starting pitcher on the Player Rater, boasting consecutive seasons of durability (67 starts) and near-identical peripheral numbers. He is not an ace, nor a big strikeout option, but I like to have a starter or two on the bench to plug in whenever, and Chacin performs for a good club and still gets no respect. Laureano looks like a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option, and this late in a draft, that is a bargain, especially with several outfielders likely to miss time at some point.
Round 25
Francisco Mejia, C, San Diego Padres:
Someone has to catch the baseball and it seems to make perfect sense, at this point, to grab a high-upside option rather than a boring veteran like Tucker Barnhart or Jonathan Lucroy (ah, once upon a time). Mejia is one of the better upside choices in that regard. We know he can hit, and he has boasted impressive power the past few weeks. We think the Padres intend for him to catch long-term. If it is not going well in mid-April, perhaps just move on to whomever is playing well and stream the position. Welington Castillo, Austin Barnes and one of the Nationals works for me as well.
