3 compartments of handicapping: Fundamental, Technical and Situational. How you weigh each compartment in reaching a summation of your decision, determines what type of handicapper you are. Jet..you're probably a fundamental (stats) handicapper..and a damn fine one I might add. I believe GoGo to be more of a situational handicapper...and a damn fine one I might add as well. I believe all three areas need to be explored in reaching a verdict when capping a game. Tonights game favors the Titans in fundamental capping and the Colts in both technical and situational capping.
If I'm not mistaken, you (Jet) have a play on the Titans while GoGo has settled on the Colts. This game on paper isn't close but as we all know it's played on turf and both technical and situational factors will come into play this evening. For a pure numbers capper, this game would yield a line of Titans -10 or -11 but yet we see the price has settled in at -4.
Here is a strong technical example for tonight: Since 1980, there have been six teams that have started an NFL season at 6-0 SU (straight up) and 6-0 ATS (against the spread). In game seven, these teams have gone 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, including 0-5 SU and ATS when favored by less than 10 points.
Situationals are self explanatory...I believe the situation strongly favors the Colts tonight.
I am curious how many cappers use stats (and to what extent) in determining their selections.
BOL to all.
A&F> Dead on. I know that the Colts are a situational play. HOWEVER, I still feel the situation (before I knew the whole 6-0 trends u gave) was not large enough for me to think about taking the Colts. Now the line is at 4. Why not 3.5 or 3? At 4 the fundamental capper says Take the Titans but other would say Colts (which is sounding more and more like the right side lol).
With Addai being out and Bob Sanders coming in for the first time in a while... I still think TENN -4 is the right play.
You are correct about me being on the titans. But it's nothing near large, nothing near medium. In fact, I should have advertised it at *SMALL* for every play because of the situational factor. In the end,
my stat says the line should be approx -4.5 I believe. We'll find out tonight.
I enjoyed reading the trend you gave and that you gave an example of each. Good work coach >
Tide> LOL, yeah... sounds about right. But sometimes i wonder when 80% of us are on a side, and the touts are also--seems like it's been hitting. So it's weird.
HIWARRIOR> Haven't seen you around these parts much, but thanks for the input. I feel your writeup is plausible, and it's very much like what I do when I have time. Those give you the biggest edge IMO.
Powerz> Yep, but I think it's the accounting department that throws them the true line first. The marketing department pushes the public to play the "other" side. Although sometimes when the line is way off, in the case of CINCY/HOU this week. I said the line should probably be about -21 but it was -9. Obviously at 21 the betting would be 90%+ on CINCY and the other side still would have covered. I also had NE -13 or -14 this week but they didn't cover their -8.5. In games like this I feel outdrawn because according to others who were watching the live game said the Patriots were dominant besides a few blown plays. The pats had a good amount of dropped passes, the INT's were not truly the QB's fault... WR should have been able to protect it or come down with it. Even the ending of the Pats game had me frustrated even though it looked doubtful that I'd get in a FG with a little under 2:00 left to cover while being on the 30yd line. Bill decides to kneel out, and then PUNT... this is vs the Rams... come on Bill, I've seen you do worse.
