West coast week 3

[Conan]

OK I am officially flipping the UT/CAL pick.

I just don't buy all the hype about Texas. I know they're having a better year
thus far but you just don't go to Berkeley expecting to render the Calbears flat,
not in a big game. Cal is ranked #3 in total offense, #2 in passing.

Now I think I just fell for the hype and I can't allow that.

Cal +7½/UT (double play to reverse the original UT wager)

Sorry, I was eating a Milky Way.

 

[Conan]

Of course, there is some chance USC can upset Stan. Stan looked very mediocre in 2nd half vs KSU

I credit Snyder with KSU's 2nd half play.
He's about as good as they come when it
boils down to making half-time adjustments.

I don't like laying the points here but Stanford's
mastery over the Trojans has me a bit gun shy
backing USC. I'd love to watch this game though.

 

[Conan]

Loving the OVER 81 here........been on Cal's OVERs first 2 weeks of the season........i don't see this one going UNDER either. Very little defense on both sides of the ball, with powerful attacks on offense. Thoughts Conan? Thank you.

Varkey, I think I might throw a little your way,
and while I'm at it, I may as well wager Cal on
the ML for a bowl of soup -- (small bowl)

 

[Conan]

Conan,

I agree with your WSU play. Just check the weather the day of the game as some rain is predicted. Leach's passing game is not as good in the rain. Think Portland State last year. BTW, Idaho and New Mexico State got kicked out of the Sun Belt. Idaho had no choice. Idaho going back into the Big Sky is best for all parties. This topic is actually covered in my new ebook on Amazon Kindle, College Football Odyssey

rick,
Hey I don't mind you mentioning your site now and then, just don't overdo it.
It feels a little like reading the "Burma Shave" signs driving down the highway.
It's distracting from the messages.

Once per thread is fine. If you were a tout I'd have you thrown out of here
but since it's an information site, I don't mind too terribly much.

Thanks pal.

 

[WinOne]

OK I am officially flipping the UT/CAL pick.

I just don't buy all the hype about Texas. I know they're having a better year
thus far but you just don't go to Berkeley expecting to render the Calbears flat,
not in a big game. Cal is ranked #3 in total offense, #2 in passing.

Now I think I just fell for the hype and I can't allow that.

Cal +7½/UT (double play to reverse the original UT wager)

Sorry, I was eating a Milky Way.

Thought you might switch when you started looking inside the numbers.

 

[WinOne]

It was I that predicted a Tex beatdown here...
Coming from a Cal fan...born in Berkeley...
Although this will be the first road start for the Tex Fresh Qb I believe it will not have an affect because:
1. One third of the crowd + will be Texas fans.
2. Tex will be playing two qb's.
3. Like previously stated by another poster, qb Buechele has already played in a national tv spot vs ND.

Cal does have a good offense and an excellent passing game. They make a great underdog in a shootout (as does Wassu) getting back door covers. They did put up huge yards and points vs a very good Sdst defense, a defense that is likely better than Texas'. But this defense is different as the size and speed should be able to match up with Cal, wear it down and provide a pass rush and good coverage. Nd moved the ball well vs Tex but they are bigger and much better in the trenches than Cal. Texas' new kicker looks good too and Tex holds the special teams advantage and those aren't even the matchups that worry me.
Its the Tex offense that is gonna steam roll this Cal defense. I watch all the Cal games, they are terrible tacklers that don't have good fundamentals, discipline or angles. The defensive depth is the the second major issue. Tex could bring in Swoops at qb and rb run, qb run, qb run, qb pass all day on Cal.
To wrap it up,
I like Texas very much in the fundamental matchups.
I believe Tex is in the better situational spot (revenge, bye week on deck. Cal opens conference play @ ASU).
Technical spot is neutral as the line has moved already. I haven't looked up public betting or sharp book leans.

A lot of sharp people had Tex as a high variance team this year as did I, and everything seems to be falling into place to fulfill the higher end side of their potential . Trust in the Vegas linemaker I do, but every once in a while they miss on one. I believe this is that spot.
Thanks for the .02, I always look for your commentary and picks on here!

I too like Ucla, I think I wrote a little something on them here, but I am watching the injury news on Vanderdoes.

KDawgg - I always appreciate your insight, especially on CAL. While the CAL run defense leaves A LOT to be desired, I like their corners/safeties against UT. I think they'll be able to go man and run blitz UT until Texas makes an adjustment. One thing they did in the SDSU game was get Pumphrey going sideways. While that does not work for a guy like Pumphrey cause he's too quick, it can be disruptive for a ground game like Texas which is not explosive, but more pounding. And I think with the Cal pass game they have the potential to move the ball at will. With this being game #3, I expect to see QB Webb stop throwing picks. Also, they've been pretty good as a dog the last few years between 7-10 points. I still want to see the Texas coaching staff win a game on the road that they are supposed to win.

 

[WinOne]

I might add, despite UT beating UTEP 41-7, that game was 13-7 with about 1:22 left in the first half. UT still commits a lot of penalties (10 against ND, 11 against UTEP) as they get used to the new offense, and they only averaged 3.6 on the ground against the Miners (171 yards total). They were only 3/12 on third down conversions against UTEP.

 

[MoneyMiller]

Surprised you flip flopped on Texas, I just dont think they can slow them down at all on offense. As far as pac 10 home field I dont think Cal is in the top half, bunch of hand sitters.

 

[Conan]

You win a couple of games and the world beats its way
to the betting window. I think Nebraska is getting too
much credit here. As I said earlier, the Ducks firepower
is to much for the Huskers to match. This one scores big.

Time to place a wager on the Ducks. I'll take the hook.

Oregon +3½/Nebraska

 

[WebeBad]

I am liking the fact that you did a 'switcharoonie' and are liking the home underdog here. Cal lost by 5 at San Diego but covered the 7-point wood. I liked the 604-463 yard advantage LW!.

Your OryGun wager looks very solid! I played them +3' and on the ML. Nebraska's Reilly has experience facing Da' Ducks but he was 0-7 SU / 2-5 ATS in his last 7 games vs Da' Ducks while HC at Corvallis. When the line is single digits Oregon (either favored or a dawg) they are 16-2 ATS the last 6 years including a perfect 13-0 ATS in the regular season.

 

[bully07]

hey Conan any love for Zona st -21 ?

 

[varkeyboy]

But I still think there will be a lot of points scored in this one.
ASU can rack them up but they also give up quite a lot.
This one looks like a 45-23-ish score. That seems like enough
let down to allow for the Sun Devils.

ASU/UTSA O60½ (Friday)

Down to 59 now............any reason for the line movement? Still playing that OVER?

 

[Conan]

hey Conan any love for Zona st -21 ?

Not enough.
I don't know what RR said to the Wildcats at halftime vs Grambling St. to
make them change their game but what will he need to say the next time?
I'm not sold on Zona at all.

 

[KDawgg]

KDawgg - I always appreciate your insight, especially on CAL. While the CAL run defense leaves A LOT to be desired, I like their corners/safeties against UT. I think they'll be able to go man and run blitz UT until Texas makes an adjustment. One thing they did in the SDSU game was get Pumphrey going sideways. While that does not work for a guy like Pumphrey cause he's too quick, it can be disruptive for a ground game like Texas which is not explosive, but more pounding. And I think with the Cal pass game they have the potential to move the ball at will. With this being game #3, I expect to see QB Webb stop throwing picks. Also, they've been pretty good as a dog the last few years between 7-10 points. I still want to see the Texas coaching staff win a game on the road that they are supposed to win.

While Cal did force SdSt to run sideways, SdSt was happy to oblige and Cal may be able to do that against a mt west team but a team with the size, speed and depth of a good top 20 power 5 school will be different according to everything I've seen from this team. You definitely rate cal's db's higher than I. We agree that Cal will be able to pass and score and you are right about the Tex staff being able to win a big game on the road.
I think we have agreed to disagree. Appreciate everyone's commentary, we shall soon see.

 

[Jstack34]

Down to 59 now............any reason for the line movement? Still playing that OVER?

Hoping we get the over 60.5 for Conan. Glad it came down to 59 though for myself

 

[Conan]

Yeah hell....

The tight lines and totals have not been good to me.
Hope most of you guys got the win.

Like I was saying before, tight lines are a coin flip.

 

[richporter]

uggh missed total by .5 meanwhile closed at 58 i fucking despise when this happens i feel for you got hit with like 2 games last week same scenario.. gluck this week

 

[Conan]

If I was a Notre Dame fan this is how it would be.

 

[candy7]

If I was a Notre Dame fan this is how it would be.

you have had many great comments over the years but this one is a classic!!!!!! kudos and bol today.

 

[Conan]

you have had many great comments over the years but this one is a classic!!!!!! kudos and bol today.

When you lose 3 picks in 2 weeks by a total of 1½ points you'd better have a sense of humor.

Thanks.
GL2U2