wekend thread

[rolltide]

27-14 +38.29
171.75 out - 210.04 in (+22.3%)

EPL Saturday
Fulham vs Sheffield Utd - both teams are 0-1-1 but Fulham I rate in the 10-14 area while Sheff U will battle with Watford for worst in EPL, thus odds of 2+ way too good to pass up. Fulham played very well against Bolton allowing just 1 shot on goal, but came away with just the late 1-1 equalizer. Sheff have started with tough opponents, Reds and Spurs, which I think is influencing this price too much. Sheffield just don't have enough EPL-quality players on staff to grab away points and Fulham are better than last year's version. Fulham 4/10 @2.04 $400/416

Dutch Eredivisie
Twente vs PSV - PSV certainly main title contender and Twente probably in the 10-14 area in Dutch top league. PSV no problems winning away, 12-3-2 last year, while Twente a very average team that were unable to advance in 2 legs in Uefa cup against poor Lavadia Tallinn. PSV have not lost against Twente in an amazing 18 matches, 11-7-0, though a low scoring contest would be expected. I took 1.61 though it seems some 1.66's (-150) are out there. PSV 4.5/10 @1.61 (10bet) $450/275

 

[rolltide]

Schalke vs Werder Bremen - Friday 2:30pm EST - Werder with the top attack in Germany this year but not a great defensive club. Both of their matches this year hit 3+ and Schalke are "due" offensively. They have a very strong attack but missed many chances in the draw vs Frankfurt then had a man sent off in 1st half vs Aachen and scored just the one goal. H2H have 3 of last 4 matches at Schalke hitting 3 goals and I'm of the opinion that any Werder total of 2.5 laying -125 or less should be taken. Schalke/Werder over 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @1.833 (pinnacle$350/292)

 

[Hooligans]

Soild pick rolltide ! here at iasports i have it at 2.5 o -155 but im going to go ahead and take my chances and see how it turns out! i will post again after the match mate! cheers and good luck to all! :toast:

Schalke vs Werder Bremen - Friday 2:30pm EST - Werder with the top attack in Germany this year but not a great defensive club. Both of their matches this year hit 3+ and Schalke are "due" offensively. They have a very strong attack but missed many chances in the draw vs Frankfurt then had a man sent off in 1st half vs Aachen and scored just the one goal. H2H have 3 of last 4 matches at Schalke hitting 3 goals and I'm of the opinion that any Werder total of 2.5 laying -125 or less should be taken. Schalke/Werder over 2.5 goals 3.5/10 @1.833 (pinnacle$350/292)

 

[rolltide]

Morelia vs Atlas - Mexico Saturday - had been waiting for pricing on this once since I figured Atlas would be rated too high with their 3-0 start. MF Trujillo out for Morelia which is a nonfactor as he's played just 28' in 3 matches while Atlas no squad problems. Guardado with two golazos last week in the win at home vs America in their favored 9:45 EST time slot but they did not play that well even with an extra man for 75'. In the massacre of Tecos the score was 1-1 at the time of the red card and Atlas destroyed Tecos with the man advantage so some favorable things happening for them this year. Still, this is not a good club (IMO) while Morelia have an excellent lineup perhaps as strong of an 11 as any team in the league. They are very inconsistent and never a team to take with high stakes but this line should be 2.00 not 2.40. If it were a team that I trusted more I'd be staking a lot higher than 4/10. Morelia 4/10 @2.35
(betcris ... $400/540)

 

[rolltide]

small bets
Aldershot Town vs Dag & Red - Eng Conf - Numbers look good for an over here. Aldershot with an 8-6 goal differential through 3 matches and D&R just put 4 by Tamworth last week. H2H with 5/6 overs including 3-1, 4-0, 2-1 in Aldershot. Aldershot/D&R over 2.5 goals 2.5/10 @1.93 (pinn)

Cambridge vs Halifax - Eng Conf - Cambridge with 1 goal scored in 3 matches and just 3 allowed while Halifax just one goal scored as well. Both teams 3/3 unders and last year's matches ended 1-1 and 0-1. For Halifax "Striker Andy Campbell is expected to start up-front despite being short of match fitness." Cambridge/Halifax under 2.5 goals 2.5/10 @1.87 (pinn)

Chile:
U de Concepcion vs Santiago Wanderers - SW are definitely punching above their weight right now and U de Conce not a great opponent for them to face. SW without top goalie Francisco Prieto and important Paulo Pérez and Alejandro Carrasco which makes this young squad even younger. U de Conce 6-0-1 L7 against SW and playing just their 2nd home game this year in Collao. U de Conce not the strongest home record in the past year but they are a very strong team and much more experienced than SW. U de Conce -1 goal 3/10 @2.07 (pinn)

Union Espanola vs Antofagasta - I watched UE vs Colo Colo and UE were very strong in defense and, based on that, Antofagasta will have a difficult time scoring. UE have allowed 0 or 1 goal in 4 of 6 matches this season while Antofagasta have allowed 0-1 goals in 5/6. Over/Under 2.5 goals are 2-4 for UE and 1-5 for Anto so decent value here on u2.75 goals. UE/Anto under 2.5 goals 2.5/10 @1.787 (pinn/ibc)

 

[rolltide]

Brazil Saturday

Cruzeiro vs Sao Caetano - I don't really care for SC but will bet them in this one as they are in better form than Cruzeiro. Sao Cae with just a loss in 11, 3-7-1, and a solid 1-3-1 in last 5 road games while Cruzeiro are winless in 8, 0-3-5, and just 1 win in last 6 at home. Both teams with a lot of missings which make the match a bit less predictable. Anderson Lima returns for Sao Cae but Caninde is still out along with striker Diego Tardelli and defender Triguinho. Cruzeiro with some big time issues to mount a solid 11. They sold leading scorer Alecsandro to Betis this week and will also miss Edu Dracena, Sandro, Élson, Jonílson, Fábio Santos, Martinez, Diogo, and Thiago Heleno. Cruzeiro usually solid at home but have dropped points in 4 straight home games against Sao Caetano. Good chance for Sao Cae to grab a result for 11th time in 12 matches. Sao Caetano +1/2 goal 5/10 @1.952 (pinn)

 

[SunDodger]

Fulham 1-0

Nice pick, rolltide!!

 

[Hooligans]

hey sun dodger i hope your taking PSV tommorow... should be easy money! i got it at -160 how about you mate? cheers! :toast:

 

[SunDodger]

I will most definately get a bet down on PSV before kick-off. Hopefully, D. Beasley scores the game winner.

 

[Hooligans]

i sure hope he does!!! arty:

 

[bman]

what league is the PSV game in? i can't seem to find the "dutch" matches on my book :cryingcry

 

[Hooligans]

Holland Eredivisie :toast:

 

[rolltide]

worst weekend of the year for me ... sorry to any who followed. Completely insane weekend that saw Twent beat PSV for 1st time in 19 games, Everton winning away with 10 men at Spurs for 1st time since 1985, and Man City winning at home against Arsenal for 1st time in 15 years. Add to that PAO losing to Ionikos at home after 14 straight home wins ...
Fulham 1-0
PSV 0-1
Schalke 2-0
Morelia 1-1
D&R 1-1
Halifax 2-1
Conce 1-2
UE 3-3
Sao Cae 0-3

27-14 +15.95
202.75 out - 218.70 in (+7.8%)

today's bets from Pinnacle:
Brazil - Corinthians -1/2 2.5/10 @1.85
Brazil - Palmeiras/Ponte Preta over 2.75 goals 6/10 @1.80

 

[Hooligans]

i feel you mate! :hanging: i got hung on PSV as well! i was really expecting them to win with no problem at all! PSV is one of my favorite teams of all time so its ok! dont get down on yourself we have plenty of games left so we can get out of this hole !!! cheers mate!!! :toast: