weekend

[rolltide]

Mexico Sat Night

Leon vs Cruz Azul
- first half play here. Leon lost first leg 2-1 so must win the match which means if they're tied in 2H they will be forced to press heavy and of course be open to allowing counter goal and outright loss so I prefer 1H play. At home Leon led in 5/9 games at the break and were drawn in 3 others and that 5-3-1 1H record was best in Mexico. In last 3 home games they are 3-0-0 6/1 in first half. For entire season they are 10-5-2 16/6 in 1H, again best in league, while Cruz Azul just an average 1H team with only 3 away goals in 8 games and just 2 goals in last 7 away from home. They are great defensive club and with first leg advantage will be tough to break down but I like the -1/4 for home team that is so powerful like Leon who've only lost 10% of time here in last 2 seasons. Leon do have a history of playoff failures from Ascenso (lost to Tijuana and then La Piedad) but in Tijuana match were down to 10 men at 26' and down to 8 men by 69'. At worst I'd think half lost here as they've trailed at HT just once in 22 home matches dating back to that La Piedad playoff game in Ascenso.

Leon 1H -0.25 2/10 @+100

 

[rolltide]

France

Brest vs Bastia
- good home team vs terrible away team. Bastia long time worst traveler in France top flight just 2 wins in 41 away games (2-11-28). Brest lots of home draws since promotion so have to go with either level ball or -0.25 as draw is too prevalant in home results. But, outright losses are rare...just 8 in 43 (18%) with the majority against top clubs like Bordeaux, PSG, and Lille). H2H Brest 4-1-1 at home with that loss coming 6 years ago in L2 (so unbeaten last 5 here) with the 4 wins coming by 2-2-4-4 goals. Bastia worst defense in Ligue 1 by far and newly promoted club should be big dog here. Away team also 4 suspensions here...Yatabaré, Palmieri, Barbato, Choplin

Brest pk -125 (1.25u to win 1u)

 

[rolltide]

I don't bet QPR simply because I am rooting for them to go down (along with Liverpool of course) but don't understand how this team is winless in 12. In Ferdinand, Nelsel, Bosingwa, Park, Wright-Phillips, Dyer, Johnson, Fabio, Zamora, Cisse they have 10 players that either have significant starting experience with 2nd-tier clubs (like Castle, Sundy, Fulham, BBurn) or fringe players with top teams (Chelsea, City, United). Really is too much quality to be winless with a DD goal differential. I would never recommend betting them at odds like -125 today but maybe home vs Villa on Dec 1 is the time they break the streak. Won't be next Saturday I can assure you

 

[rolltide]

Belgium 2pm

Mons vs Oh Leuven
- #2 gpg vs #3 gpg as they avg 3.80 and 3.53 gpg and only Club Brugge avg more. Last month when Oh Leuven played Brugge 5 goals were scored and when Mons played them 4 were scored. Last 6 H2H ended with 7-4-4-5-6-5 in net.

Mons/Oh Leuven o3 -125 (2u to win 1.6u)

 

[rolltide]

Brest easy 3-0

Mons 3-1`... nice to get off the push and into the win at 92nd minute...

Leon at 8pm on Telemundo

heading out for the night

 

[Mutiny]

thanks for the winners RT. Enjoy the evening. LA and HOU should wrap up their spots in the MLS Cup tomorrow. The over 2.5 in LA/SEA is appealing to me. LA just isn't that good defensively to sit back and absorb pressure for 90 minutes. SEA at home on the slick turf will be going at them in waves opening up what should be a number of great counter attacking opportunities for LA.

 

[roundrobin11]

I don't bet QPR simply because I am rooting for them to go down (along with Liverpool of course) but don't understand how this team is winless in 12. In Ferdinand, Nelsel, Bosingwa, Park, Wright-Phillips, Dyer, Johnson, Fabio, Zamora, Cisse they have 10 players that either have significant starting experience with 2nd-tier clubs (like Castle, Sundy, Fulham, BBurn) or fringe players with top teams (Chelsea, City, United). Really is too much quality to be winless with a DD goal differential. I would never recommend betting them at odds like -125 today but maybe home vs Villa on Dec 1 is the time they break the streak. Won't be next Saturday I can assure you

I'm throwing my money away betting on them. Loftus Road is a pretty rowdy stadium. It can be a tough place to play, yet QPR are doing nothing there. I don't see how Hughes lasts till next Saturday.

 

[rolltide]

Leon 2-0 HT works for me

 

[rolltide]

took tiny .5u double to win .43 with stromgodset/tromso. two great home sides looking to close out season on winning note in norway

 

[rolltide]

I'm throwing my money away betting on them. Loftus Road is a pretty rowdy stadium. It can be a tough place to play, yet QPR are doing nothing there. I don't see how Hughes lasts till next Saturday.

yeah but not sure you want to indoctrinate a new coach in old trafford even if it's rednapp. i like hughes...honest guy, straight shooter, but clearly overwhelmed with trying to gel all these new signings. after that may match i hope they go down, never to return

 

[rolltide]

tromso lost -.5u

 

[impressivegol]

nice picks this weekend Roll,

on the QPR front, i second your thoughts exactly regarding the actual talent that is on that team sheet should not still be vying for first win. After watching them vs Southampton i'm not sure if I can back them anytime soon but i agree you'd think either villa/fulham , QPR's next two opponents at home should be their first casualty. possibly even both. good home support and lack of talent isn't the issue, maybe the new manager syndrome can revive some life.