weekend

[rolltide]

early pick for Sunday

LA Galaxy vs Houston Dynamo - teams played last night in the US Cup semifinals with LA winning 3-1 and match was 2-1 at HT. It was a very offensive match which actually Houston had better pressure but game finished with 26 shots taken, 16 from the Dynamo including 10 corners. With last night's match that is now 4 of Houston's last 5 games reaching 4 or more goals. Bookies understandably dropping LA to 2.25 goals based on their nice defensive run but they've now gone over in 3 of 4 including last night yet bookies have not adjusted back to 2.5. Houston got Ching back last night and their offense will be that much better because of it but will miss their top defender, Eddie Robinson, due to suspension. A clearly mispriced total IMO... LA/Houston over 2.25 goals 6/10 @1.83

 

[rolltide]

DC United vs Real Salt Lake - DC have 4 players suspended including 3 of their top 5 scorers and best defender, Bobby Boswell. Christian Gomez was league player of the weak last year and leads DC in goals and assists while Alecko Eskandarian is 3rd on the team with 7 goals. They also miss Josh Gros who is 5th in goals and 4th in assists on the team. Gomez, Eskandarian, and Gros have 19g/16a between them and 6 of the team's game winning goals so this will really leave Jaime Moreno alone in attack with little offensive support from midfield. DC were thumped 3-0 last night in the cup semifinal and have now won just one of last 7 games after such a dominant start, but have already clinched a playoff spot and are in 1st by 15 points. RSL sit 2 points out of the playoffs and continue to post erratic results with poor matches against RBNY and Colorado surrounded by impressive wins over LA, Houston, and Columbus. They are much better this year and actually have won 3 of their last 4 road games. Been over many times how badly MS teams play in 3rd match in a week when up against a rested opponent and this falls into that situation. Still, it's RSL against the leader of the league so a small stake. RSL +3/4 2/10 @2.22 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Toluca vs Morelia - Mex Sun - there are max 3-4 teams in the league that Toluca should be -1 goal against and Morelia is not one of them. Toluca with a great start to the season, 4-2-0, but still have trouble generating offense and are not the dominant home team of 3 years ago. Their goalie, Hernan Cristante, is injured and coach is suspended while Morelia have no issues. Morelia have not played a good road game this season, 0-0-3, but they are capable of getting a low-scoring result in this one. They even won here in February, 3-2, though that was their 1st win in Toluca in 10 years. Toluca righful favorites but not with a full goal HC. Morelia +1 goal 3/10 @1.85 (pinn)

Monterrey vs Gallos Blancos - Mex Sat - this will be a game of one way traffic and if Rayados convert on their chances the -1 goal HC will not be a problem. I rate Monterrey in top 5 and Queretaro at the bottom of the league. Queretaro have yet to score on the road, 0-0-3 0/6, and were beaten 3-0 by both Veracruz and Toluca. I rate Monterrey higher than both of them so a 3-0 win seems about right here. Rayados playing very well with just one loss at Cruz Azul and are a very good home team. No problems for Monterrey while Gallos Blancos miss a starting MF. Monterrey -1 goal 6.5/10 @2.09 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Everton vs Liverpool - EPL early Sat match - one of the matches I look forward to each year but because FSC no longer show the live 7:45am match on Saturday I'm SOL except for internet streaming. I'm a United fan so not much for Liverpool anyway, but they are not an impressive bunch. Riise and Carragher, both important players, continue to miss out while Everton have a full squad including solid attacking pair of Beattie and Johnson. Everton have a dreadful h2h in this derby of 1-1-5 in last 3.5 years and 1-4-8 in the new century and don't fare a lot better at home (1-0-5 L6) but this is a very good Everton squad. Liverpool with PSV in Champions League at midweek so could be looking ahead a bit. Gonna take my chances on the +1/2 instead of taking a straight bet on draw because I would not be surprised to see Everton sneak a winner. Everton +1/2 goal 2.5/10 @1.84 (mansion)

 

[rolltide]

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians - Brazil Sunday - huge derby match of course but Timao are just way out of form. Before the coaching change they were strong on offense and weak on defense but now are the opposite and, of course, Mascherano and Tevez are gone. Basically they are gone because they are Argentinian...period. Tevez was their best attacker and 3-time So American POY while Mascherano is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world. Yes, the brought in Cesar, Magrao, and Amoroso but Timao have show an inability to integrate new players so I rate this as a big negative. Sao Paulo will miss Josue and Aloisio which is a problem in attack, and obviously are not as fresh as Timao having traveled to/from Buenos Aires in midweek. If not for this I'd be hitting my first 10/10 in 17 months but I have to take fatigue and injuries into account...damn the Recopa Sudamerica. Sao Paulo's only home loss this year at home was with reserves and otherwise have dominated while Timao have relied on defense in away games. Really impossible to think of shutting out SP at home and Timao are such a mentally fragile team that one goal for SP should wilt them. h2h is a mess... Sao Paulo 4-1-0 L5 and 7-3-0 L10. Very large wager for me. Sao Paulo -1/4 goal 8.5/10 @1.926 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Juventude vs Cruzeiro - signficant stats pointing to the under here. Juventude with 4 straight unders and 8 of last 9 games plus 7 straight home games. Cruzeiro with 8 of last 9 away games going under and have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 trips. Huge changes on both teams with Juventude unable to play 7-8 guys due to injuries and suspensions. Cruzeiro will completely flop their team that played in midweek vs Santos, not because of resting players, but because they were so poor in the 1-0 loss vs Santos' B team. Juventude/Cruzeiro under 2.5 goals 4/10 @1.95 (pinn)

 

[quantumleap]

Juventude vs Cruzeiro - signficant stats pointing to the under here. Juventude with 4 straight unders and 8 of last 9 games plus 7 straight home games. Cruzeiro with 8 of last 9 away games going under and have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 trips. Huge changes on both teams with Juventude unable to play 7-8 guys due to injuries and suspensions. Cruzeiro will completely flop their team that played in midweek vs Santos, not because of resting players, but because they were so poor in the 1-0 loss vs Santos' B team. Juventude/Cruzeiro under 2.5 goals 4/10 @1.95 (pinn)

I was just looking at this match as well. I noticed that Juve has only given up 4 goals in 11 home matches. I can't believe Pinnacle opened this total with 2.75.

GL to us. I hope I didn't jinx you.

 

[redrocket]

Sao Paulo 2 extra men from 1/2 time and they can't score?

 

[Hooligans]

mates! dont forget Boca Juniors!!! The best team in South America and this team is on fire right now!! Boca Juniors -150 5units @iasports

cheers! :toast:

 

[rolltide]

weekend 4-2-1 +2.57
Galaxy 1-2 bet won +4.98
RSL 1-1 bet won +2.44
Morelia 1-2 bet pushed +0
Monterrey 2-2 bet lost -6.50
Everton 2-0 bet won +2.10
Sao Paulo 0-0 bet half lost -4.25
Juventude 2-0 bet won +3.80

38-29-1 +24.98
288.25 out - 313.23 in (+8.7%)