weekend Sept 30 - Oct 1

[rolltide]

early one as I really like this play from MLS

RBNY vs Fire - call this my MLS game of the year if you'd like - The Fire are playing some phenomenal soccer and won the US Open Cup this evening 3-1 over LA in a very hard fought match (Fire scored #3 in 88th). Because of the building of their new stadium the Fire have played very few away matches in last few months. Including US Open Cup play this will be just their 4th road game in last 23. They're on fire right now with an 11-1-1 record since August 14 but I will bet against them big here. Game is meaningless to Chicago who have already wrapped up a playoff spot, have no chance to be #1 in the East, and will wrap up the #2 spot at home next week against hapless Columbus. They just won the US Open Cup, which is the 2nd most important trophy in US soccer, and by the looks of the celebration during their 3rd goal a few days of partying are in order. I bet against the Fire at home last week vs LA and rightfully so as they were terrible in that match against the super-motivated Galaxy. Outshot 21-6 at home they still won with a goal at :30 and a late penalty but must now play their 3rd match this week and 8th match in a month. This is a must win for the Red Bulls, sitting 2 points out of a playoff spot with 3 to play. Their next match is one where a point will be a great result at Colorado and final match is home to the team they trail, Kansas City. Nothing but 3 points can suit them here and they have played well at home. Although their recent form is not strong, 1-0-4, they've lost just one in 9 at home and are 4-1-1 since Arena was announced as their new coach. Lineup could be a mixed group for Chicago but this bet is due to a predicted Fire letdown vs must-win motivation for RBNY. Asians not out yet but if RBNY just play a draw here they might as well just lose outright. Red Bull NY 7.5/10 @2.50 (olympic/10bet/expekt/sportingbet/bet365)

 

[Taparosca]

Nice write up man!!! Good luck with RBNY!!!

 

[rolltide]

LA Galaxy vs Chivas USA - well, last night was a real killer for LA and the quotes before the match show that they really were putting all their eggs in the US Open Cup basket because of their 6th place spot in the West which puts them 6 points from playoffs with 3 games remaining and a team in b/w. The only way they can make the playoffs is by winning all 3 remaining matches and have Chivas lose all 3 OR have Colorado fail to win any of their 3. With such slim hopes check out the quotes before last night's US Open Cup final in Chicago.

coach Frank Yallop - "If you look at the standings and look at the points total and what other teams are going in the West, it looks like it (is the season)."
"We must move forward and look forward to possible winning a championship. When you start the season off we're all going for the same stuff, an MLS Cup and a U.S. Open Cup. We have a chance to win one of those two trophies."

top player Landon Donovan - "The last three or four weeks haven't been very encouraging. It would be nice to have something to celebrate and cheer about." and "I don't know if it adds to (the final's) importance. Certainly, with the disappointment with how the season has gone, we have an opportunity to, I hate to use the word, salvage but, to win something. If things don't go our way in our league in the next couple of games, it would be nice to have something to win so we could say we had a decent year."

Basically their season was riding on last night's match and they lost 3-1 in a very hard fought game. They have not been getting the needed results and are now 0-1-3 in last 4 and there season is all but over. Donovan is the heart of the team and if he does not play well, they don't play well. He is a very emotional player and in this situation I expect him to do what he does best...disappear. A Chivas USA win could very well clinch a playoff spot with 2 games left so I see a very motivated Chivas USA team against a despondent and tired Galaxy squad and personally rate Chivas as the slight favorite. Chivas are also the 2nd hottest team in the league after Chicago though they must again play without Palencia who's gone until the playoffs. Garcia and Razov with slight injury concerns but they'll play. Of course these teams share the Home Depot center so no homefield advantage to speak of. Had to decide between the level ball 2.23 and +1/4 1.84 and have decided on the level ball. Chivas USA level ball 6/10@2.23 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

Peterhead vs Forfar - Scotland Div 2 - major injuries at Forfar and this should be a very easy win for Peterhead who've won 2 of their last 3 after a 0-2-3 start. Forfar winless in 7 and lost their L2 away matches 3-0 and 4-2. Market has moved with the news but this really should be a home win. Peterhead 5/10 @1.50 (centrebet)

from BBC
Injury-hit Forfar Athletic have applied to the Scottish Football Association to have Saturday's Second Division game against Peterhead postponed.
Forfar say boss George Shaw has just eight fit players, including two goalkeepers, from a squad of 19.
"The club have put in the application to have the game called off," said club physio Brian McNeill.
"The club doctor has provided the appropriate certification required by the SFA to make their decision."
That decision is expected on Thursday as Forfar seek help after what McNeill describes as the worst injury crisis he has experienced.
Forfar say they were only able to name three "useable outfield substitute players" for Saturday's 3-1 home defeat by Morton.
One of those was Shaw, who was listed as a trialist.
"Alan Rattray and Fraser Coyle were both forced to end their game prematurely with recurrences of injuries, the former's injury requiring an un-fit Paul Tosh to play 45 minutes as a make shift centre half," said the club website.
In all, Forfar have nine players definitely out through injury and two others doubtful for the trip to Peterhead this weekend.

 

[rolltide]

Necaxa vs Tecos - Mexico Saturday - two leagues that you always bet on a team with a new coach are Mexico and NHL. Nothing has changed this year as only Santos has lost their 1st match with a new coach. Veracruz defeated Tigres, Morelia drew Cruz Azul, Tecos drew Cruz Azul, and now it's Necxa's turn with their high-profile signing, Hugo Sanchez. Sanchez won the title as coach of Pumas two years back and should add some life into a team that is terribly under-achieving so far. You'll remember from my season preview that I really liked Necaxa but to have 7 of 10 goals scored by one player is not good team football. They've had a few good results (3-1 vs Pachuca, 2-1 at Cruz Azul) but a few nightmares too (1-2 home loss vs Gallos, 4-0 away to Chivas) and have just one home win this year. Tecos are a disaster even with new coach. Don't take much from the 2-1 derby win vs Chivas as they miraculously held on pressued for the last 65'+ of the match. Top scorer and playmaker Daniel Ludueña is suspended and Tecos are a mess away with just the 1-1 draw at Veracruz to show for points. They've scored a goal and allowed a goal in every match this year running 8-2 in overs so this could be a high scoring one as well. Hugo Sanchez will get max effort from Necaxa the rest of the tourney and expect them to come out and pound Tecos tomorrow night. There is still plenty of time left to make the playoffs and even though they're in a group with some tough sides they have a decent shot IMO. May seem a bit low but this is the highest price yet to oppose Tecos in an away match since week 1. Necaxa 6/10 @1.80

 

[rolltide]

Santos vs Atlas - Mexico Sunday - This should be an entertaining match as Atlas, IMO, are more dangerous away than at home with their counter attacking style. Except for the beating they took against Jaguares they've scored in every away match, highlighted by the 6 they knocked in against 10-man Tecos. Overall they've actually gone under in 7/10 games this tourney but Santos have been the opposite, with 7/10 overs. Santos are a miserable team on defense (17th out of 18 ), allowing a goal in 9/10 and allowing 2+ goals in 7/10. They do have solid scoring power though (10th in league) netting in 8/10 with 5 multiple-goal games. Santos cannot afford more home draws and still seeking 1st win of the season while dropping to the relegation spot on the annual board. I've mentioned Atlas style of play many times because it is really uncommon in this league. They get a great amount of chances each match and should get a ton against this defense. They have played the other 3 worst defensive teams in Mexico, scoring 6 on Tecos, 3 on Veracruz, and 1 at Tigres (though Tigres #'s are skewed b/c of 7-0 loss at Toluca). I think both teams will score and this one goes over like almost always happens when they meet as the over is 17-2 in last 19 meetings and 11-1 in last 12 in Santos. Rare for me to have so many 5/10+ bets in a weekend but here goes another. Santos/Atlas over 2.5 goals 8/10 @2.01

 

[rolltide]

Rangers vs Aberdeen - Scotland Sunday - Aberdeen not easy to score against and do not score to many times when travelling to Glasgow. Aberdeen with pretty much all their scorers injured and Rangers going through some injuries to midfielders. Rangers blew out Falkirk here a month back but otherwise have had no easy SPL match. Aberdeen with a bad loss to Hearts last round both otherwise had a streak of 7 straight unders going. Rangers much of an over team, 5-3 so far, but Aberdeen have a history of keeping the score down in this series. 6 of last 9 have ended under 2.5 with only 1 over 3 goals scored when playing way. Their last 3 matches have produced just 4 goals total and Abby have become sort of a bogey team for Rangers who are winless in 4 against them. Abby with just 2 goals allowed in 4 away games and lost to Celtic just 1-0 at home so plenty of reasons to expect this match to end under 3 goals. Rangers/Aberdeen under 2.75 goals 3.33/10 @1.847 (pinn)

 

[quantumleap]

rolltide:

Thanks for the time and effort put in for these write-ups. Keep up the good work.

:toast:

 

[mxnprd]

good luck rolltide. i also like your necaxa pick.

 

[fhmesq44]

early one as I really like this play from MLS

RBNY vs Fire - call this my MLS game of the year if you'd like - The Fire are playing some phenomenal soccer and won the US Open Cup this evening 3-1 over LA in a very hard fought match (Fire scored #3 in 88th). Because of the building of their new stadium the Fire have played very few away matches in last few months. Including US Open Cup play this will be just their 4th road game in last 23. They're on fire right now with an 11-1-1 record since August 14 but I will bet against them big here. Game is meaningless to Chicago who have already wrapped up a playoff spot, have no chance to be #1 in the East, and will wrap up the #2 spot at home next week against hapless Columbus. They just won the US Open Cup, which is the 2nd most important trophy in US soccer, and by the looks of the celebration during their 3rd goal a few days of partying are in order. I bet against the Fire at home last week vs LA and rightfully so as they were terrible in that match against the super-motivated Galaxy. Outshot 21-6 at home they still won with a goal at :30 and a late penalty but must now play their 3rd match this week and 8th match in a month. This is a must win for the Red Bulls, sitting 2 points out of a playoff spot with 3 to play. Their next match is one where a point will be a great result at Colorado and final match is home to the team they trail, Kansas City. Nothing but 3 points can suit them here and they have played well at home. Although their recent form is not strong, 1-0-4, they've lost just one in 9 at home and are 4-1-1 since Arena was announced as their new coach. Lineup could be a mixed group for Chicago but this bet is due to a predicted Fire letdown vs must-win motivation for RBNY. Asians not out yet but if RBNY just play a draw here they might as well just lose outright. Red Bull NY 7.5/10 @2.50 (olympic/10bet/expekt/sportingbet/bet365)

Halftime Stats:

<table style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204);" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td class="bg3" colspan="3">Game Stats</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="95">
</td><td align="center" width="215">New York Red Bulls</td><td align="center" width="215">Chicago Fire</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Shots:</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr class="scoreStats2"> <td>Shots on Goal:</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Saves:</td><td align="center">1</td><td align="center">3</td> </tr> <tr class="scoreStats2"> <td>Fouls:</td><td align="center">8</td><td align="center">10</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Offsides:</td><td align="center">0</td><td align="center">2</td> </tr> <tr class="scoreStats2"> <td>Corner Kicks:</td><td align="center">3</td><td align="center">0</td></tr></tbody> </table>
Your analysis appears to be right on, now we just need a goal.

 

[rolltide]

Cobreloa vs Santiago Wanderers - Chile Sunday - The young SW squad makes it's first long trip of the season up north to Calama. Their previous trips have been short ones south to Concepcion, Talca, Santiago, and Talcahuano but now they face the hottest team in the league and a big altitude shift. Not many teams win in Calama and Cobreloa another impressive 4-1-0 9/2 year going there and in superb form with 4-0-1 in last 5 with 13 goals netted. SW has never won a Chilean game in Calama and Wanderers went through a difficult week back at home. 5 of the last 6 visits ended in 2+ goal losses and the same should hold true tomorrow against the highest scoring team in the league. Cobreloa -1 goal 4/10 @2.06

 

[rolltide]

adding Cobreloa 1.5/10 @2.07 (pinn)

 

[rolltide]

losing the big play was a real killer with 1-1 at 23rd minute. was almost a great couple days (aside from the football tips I took)

weekend 5-2 +13.22
RBNY 1-0 +11.25
C-USA 0-3 -6.00
Peterhead 7-0 +2.50
Necaxa 2-1 +4.80
Santos 1-1 -8.00
Rangers 1-0 +2.82
Cobreloa 3-1 +5.85

56-40-1 +57.40
408.58 out -> 465.98 in (+14%)

 

[fhmesq44]

should have gone over. I watched some of the game and at about 70 minutes a guy on the red/black team (sorry, don't know which is which as I don't watch Mexican league. With good reason based on that shit game) missed a sitter that I could have put in. BRUTAL, so close the guy ran into the post.

 

[rolltide]

yeah, watched the match. that play was a perfect cross from Atlas and somehow he just whiffed on the tap in, not even touching the ball and then running into the post. Atlas also hit the post off a corner and had two sure goals deflected wide. Overall the teams combined for 30 shots (18 on goal) ... really not happy about the result