Week 9

[ofred]

Last week:
4-3 large plays
5-4 on small plays.

Small:
Jacksonville St/ MTSU- under 64 Bets and money are heavily on Jack. St, but line moving the opposite way. I'm going to assume that Jacksonville State will not score as they did their last 2 games. Their offense is not that dynamic. On the other hand, MTSU has an awful run game, and a passing game that lacks any deep threat. Just seems like a large number for a Conf. USA game.

Syracuse +6 Pitt and Syracuse have both played a large number of close games. I can see this game could go either way, and Syracuse has the offense that can make it difficult for Pitt to stop...and possibly get a back door cover. Pitt has the tougher part of their schedule up ahead, is undefeated, and seem overdue for an off game. Their freshman QB has been good, but really struggled vs. Cal.

 

[bluefish33]

Last week:
4-3 large plays
5-4 on small plays.

Small:
Jacksonville St/ MTSU- under 64 Bets and money are heavily on Jack. St, but line moving the opposite way. I'm going to assume that Jacksonville State will not score as they did their last 2 games. Their offense is not that dynamic. On the other hand, MTSU has an awful run game, and a passing game that lacks any deep threat. Just seems like a large number for a Conf. USA game.

Syracuse +6 Pitt and Syracuse have both played a large number of close games. I can see this game could go either way, and Syracuse has the offense that can make it difficult for Pitt to stop...and possibly get a back door cover. Pitt has the tougher part of their schedule up ahead, is undefeated, and seem overdue for an off game. Their freshman QB has been good, but really struggled vs. Cal.

Thanks Fred! GL this week

 

[ofred]

GL to you Bluefish.

Large:
Boise State -3 (-126) Have seen both of these teams play twice. UNLV does have a really nice run game, and that includes their QB Williams. But Williams is inconsistent as a passer. And UNLV is also vulnerable to a good running team like Boise. Their defense is pretty good up front, but in the second level, they look a bit slow. Boise's almost win at Oregon wasn't really a fluke. They held Oregon to 3 ypc, pressured Gabriel quite a bit, and while being physically overmatched, Boise held their own when they had the ball. Because Jeanty has been such a weapon, Boise has been able to decoy with him, or go elsewhere with the ball and still gain chunks of yardage. The Boise OL is very good, with their QB only getting sacked 4 times.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....appreciate your early week 9 thought's buddy.....
BOL with all your action.....indy

 

[ofred]

Good lord. Two pick sixes for McCord. Put a live bet on Syracuse at +22.5.

Apologize for the short write-ups for these Saturday games, but I do really like the card for these early ones:

Large:
UW +6 Rourke out for Indiana. He has been phenomenal. Best QB transfer pick-up in the portal. Indiana is still a solid team, and they are at home, but without Rourke and his 75% completion rate, I think the Huskies can not only cover, but win. They have the better run game (barely) if Coleman is his usual self. Passing game likewise. The Huskies laid an egg vs. Iowa, but that was after 6 consecutive games, and now they are off a bye.

Oklahoma +20 This goes in the category of forget what you saw last week (Oklahoma's 3 early ints. and a 21-0 hole to SC), and look at a really good Sooner D. They are back with Jackson Arnold at QB. Both teams have their top WRs as questionable. Oklahoma stays in this game by running the ball, playing smart, and a turnover or 2 on defense.

Charlotte +18 This game has some RLM on it, probably because Memphis is overrated and has a lousy defense. Charlotte can run the ball well, and usually defend the run fairly well. Charlotte got hammered by Navy due to TOS, but out-yarded them.

Nebraska +25.5 What a glutton for punishment, going against OSU off a loss. I saw that loss vs. Oregon, and OSU isn't as dominant as most of us thought. Part of this play is the Nebraska QB, coming off his worst game. He's got a ton of confidence and I think he plays okay here. The Nebraska D also off their worst game, but I expect a good response to that . Besides, 25 points...

 

[ofred]

Small:

Navy +14 (-114) Good Navy teams have played competitively over the years vs. ND. This one has a defense that gets turnovers, and often bends but doesn't break. I also expect the Navy offense to pull out all the stops offensively...including continuing to pass more at times. Not yet sure about this ND team yet.

UNC +4 Don't think Mack Brown lasts too much longer for UNC, but this game is more of a regression to the mean kind of game. UNC runs the ball well, and they do have talent on both sides of the ball. Virginia struggles defensively and I can see this game as a toss up.

 

[bluefish33]

Small:

Navy +14 (-114) Good Navy teams have played competitively over the years vs. ND. This one has a defense that gets turnovers, and often bends but doesn't break. I also expect the Navy offense to pull out all the stops offensively...including continuing to pass more at times. Not yet sure about this ND team yet.

UNC +4 Don't think Mack Brown lasts too much longer for UNC, but this game is more of a regression to the mean kind of game. UNC runs the ball well, and they do have talent on both sides of the ball. Virginia struggles defensively and I can see this game as a toss up.

Good luck Fred! Nice looking card..let’s cash in

 

[ofred]

Large:
Miami -11 1H (-112)
Miami -20.5 (-120) FSU just has a complete mess at QB. Turnovers will plague them again. Miami will enjoy running the score up on a team that has tormented them over the years.

JMU -13 (-125) 1H
JMU -24 S. Miss also has a hot mess at QB. Their QB ran the ball 26 times last week, partly because he's a lousy passer, partly because his OL caves easily. JMU off a loss, at home, and is pretty good at padding the score vs. creampuff teams like this.

 

[ofred]

Large:

UCF -2.5 Part of this is in the category that football players never give up, that even if their season has gone south, they will play all out. UCF has a 4 game losing streak, although they played ISU tight last week on the road, and are not as bad as their record. Beating undefeated BYU will be a huge motivation for them.

Bowling Green +3 (-120) BGU is a pretty good 3-4 team, playing a really tough early schedule, but playing good FBS teams close. There is nothing really wrong with the Falcons except their QB Bazelak holds onto the ball too long and gets sacked when he needs to throw the ball away. Toledo has more holes on their team. BGU has a star WR and RB, a very good defense and is overdue for an excellent game. A little on the ML.

 

[ofred]

Small:
ECU -8 ECU playing for their season here vs. a Temple team that has outperformed their talent level. RLM on this with the great majority of bets and money on Temple.

Illinoise +22 Illinois is competitive in all of their games, losing only one. Oregon has some injuries on offense, and it does seem like number one ranked teams struggle once they get there. Illinois has the pass defense to keep the Duck passing game from having it easy (like Purdue).

Alabama -15.5 Brady Cook out, and I think a couple other offensive players for Missouri. Alabama is no longer a dominant force, but they can still romp here in a game vs. an overrated Missouri team.

Vanderbilt +17.5 It's not just Vandy's new QB Diego Pavia that has made the difference. They have some decent talent for Pavia to get the ball to. Considering that Vanderbilt really beat Alabama, and it was not a fluke, they can hang with a Texas team that looks shaky on offense. Everyone assumes Texas will win easily after last week's loss. But they finally faced a team last week that was a legit offense, and I'll wager that Vandy is that also.

Texas Tech +6.5 I'm not sure what TCU has as much of an advantage, other than home field. Their run game is mediocre, Hoover has given up 6 ints. in his last 4 games, and they should have trouble defending a dynamic Tech offense. Texas Tech needs to play better defensively to win this game.

 

[Bobbycap]

Just for your info------Missouri QB Brady Cook is going to give it a try.

 

[ofred]

Just for your info------Missouri QB Brady Cook is going to give it a try.

Saw that. The line didn't change. High ankle sprain will make him immobile. Noel out, their top RB.

 

[ofred]

One last play. Large:

Utah St. -2.5 Yes, I know how bad their defense is. But Wyoming just doesn't have the offense to take advantage of it. Another factor here is just how this year's Wyoming defense is not like their past versions. Like their UNT loss, they just can't stop a dynamic offense like what Utah State has.