Week 9 - Jets only favored by 3?

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I have a couple of picks that I'm gonna take a shot at right away and may take a look at some other games.

First start with these two:

Jets -3 (even)

In their first meeting at NY the Jets were favored by -7. Now the Jets go to Buffalo favored only by -3. My question is where did the 1 point go (I cant believe they would take away a full point because of the monday night game but what do I know)?

Sure take 3 away from the jets for playing in NY, but since these two teams played last they have gone in different direcitons

--->the Jets wiped the floor with Miami, beat SF (after having to come back in the 4th Q however their 8 pt win at the end of the game on the scoreboard was convincing despite missing the cover by a couple of points), and lost a tight one to NE (7-13).

---> The bills in the meantime have gotten by Miami (their 7 point win over miami is a drastic contrast to what the Jets did this past monday), lost to baltimore by 2 TDs, and handily beat Arizona last week. Even if Magahee is the saviour of this team (which he very well could be) I dont see the jets allowing him to have his way with them (he did get 100 yds vs miami and Arizona but they are 3rd and 10th worst respectively in terms of rushing yards allowed [incedentally the jets are ranked 8th in that category]).


Kansas City -3 (-105)

I am not a big fan of KC and looking at the way they played over their first 5 weeks I don't see how anyone can really have any confidence in long term. However stranger things have happened - and this time I'm simplifying the way I look at things to take a shot on a team that seems to have put it back together. Tampa has not put anything together - I can at least say they have been consistent, losing all but two of their games (NO and Chicago).


Others I'm looking at:

Oakland +7 ?

Suprised carolina is favored by anyone by this much but Oakland hasnt done much to warrant anything much closer either. I dont know if Kerry Collins is hitting the bottle again or what, but at some point he's gonna have to use some of the talent he has pent up in there. If he doesn't start using it soon then he is gonna be a has-been faster than he may realize. At any rate I'll look into this one further and I'd love to hear anyone's opinion on it.

Dallas -1?

How you can lose to Billy Volek is beyond me - and Cinncinati did it in superb fashion. I'm looking at dallas here to see if anything else sticks out....

Thanks for the input...



Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)

Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16

Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120

Week 4 Result: 2-2 -1.50
W--Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
W--St. Louis Rams -3 (-135)
L--Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
L--Baltimore Ravens ML (-240)

Week 5 Result: 1-2 -1.35
L--Jags -3 (+105)
L--Dallas -3 (-135)
W--Carolina +6 (-115)

Week 6 Result: 2-0 +2.0
W--Minny -3 (-121)
W--Minny (-180)

Week 7 Result: 1-2 -1.05
L-#1 Atlanta Falcons +4 (-105)
W-#2 New York Jets +6½ (-105)
L-#3 3 team ML parlay (+142)
Philadelphia Eagles -320, Sun@1:00p
St. Louis Rams -270, Sun@1:00p
Seattle Seahawks -290, Sun@4:15p

Week 8 Result: 2-2 -0.05
L-Indianapolis Colts pk (-105)
L-Cinncy +3 (+108)
W-GB -2 (-110)
W-Chicago -1.5 (-104)

YTD 15-12 +0.89
 

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GL Jaypaw! Really like Oak and Dallas, but on the Bills though. Really like McGahee and the spark he's given this team and I don't even see Jets running the way they did vs Miami. Also, I believe Milloy missed that first contest, but he's back now and should help the pass defense and defense overall. Bills seem to be getting a bit better each week as they fit the pieces to their puzzle...all I say is "protect the damn QB!!". Sacks have been out of control....should be another close one here. I don't like the fact that respected cappers like Hansen, Ace Ace and yourself are on the Jets, but gotta go with your own instincts..right? I did put that into play with my unit rating though....GL buddy!
 

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the difference in the Buffalo game RS is, Buffalo had a ton of trends favoring them last week vs. Arizona, but here they've got some going against them. The one I like is Jets are (9-0-1 ats) coming off the Monday night game. The Jets are getting amazing line value because of Buffalo's blowout last week.Good luck to all.
 

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If you dont see the jets running the way they did vs miami - do you see the bills running the way they did vs arizona?

I hadnt thought of the milloy factor - but how have they done since his return?
 

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I didnt realize that milloy just came back two games ago. He did pretty well against arizona but I am not sure if that really says much.

Anyway I'm already committed to the Jets for better or worse

The thing I need to do now is decide if either oakland or Dallas is worth a shot.
 

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I'm on the jets as well. I also just picked up KC. I really will be VERY surprised if either of these teams lose
 

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I'm gonna pick up Dallas also

Cowboys pk (-110)

I'm probably missing most of the meat of the analysis - but what's sucking me in is their aweful rush defense vs eddie george. The strength of the Boys schedule thus far as compared to Cinncy seems far tougher.

anyone agree?
 

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the entire world is on the jets. a big monday nite win on national tv, and now playing a 2-5 team they already beat this year. its free money. just onload on the jets. :biggrinin



Buffalo 40
jets 13
 

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It does make sense that the jets are due for a loss - especially on the road vs a division foe that seems to have found a running game.

I hope its not this sunday but it might be

best of luck
 

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nfny said:
the entire world is on the jets. a big monday nite win on national tv, and now playing a 2-5 team they already beat this year. its free money. just onload on the jets. :biggrinin



Buffalo 40
jets 13
it will be more like

buffalo 28
jets 10

:howdy:
 

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hey what do you mean its free money but you think the bills will win?

How do you get a blowout out of this?
 

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jaypaw said:
hey what do you mean its free money but you think the bills will win?

How do you get a blowout out of this?
you did not detect my sarcaism. its your typical public wager. see a MNF game, think that means they are really that good, and then put the title deed to your house on it, and then they are a wire to wire loser

:coffeetim
 

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haha red eye that is funny which ever way you meant it!

The jets arent panning out, cinncy is making a mockery of me, and KC is playing heart attack ball

Im gonna make it a foursome and take the pats at +2 (+100)


beware this could be 0-4

GL though whatever you choose
 

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sure enough an 0-3 to start it off...

Pats are just teasing me - but I'm gonna take a chance also on cleveland at +6.5 (-115)
 

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I lost to buffalo two weeks in a row now.... Can't predict weather like that the past two weeks though, don't feel bad.
 

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yep

hopefully cleveland will keep it tight and I'll be one away from where I started the weekend...

I'm thinking minny is getting too many points - any thoughts?
 

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L-Jets -3 (even)
L-Kansas City -3 (-105)
L-Cowboys pk (-110)
W-Pats +2 (+100)
L-Cleveland at +6.5 (-115)

1-4 -3.3

YTD 16-16 -2.41

Still looking at minny - but i dont know if I dare.

I figured I'd break out of spinning my wheels this weekend in one direction or the other, unfortunately it was the 'other' direction.

Anyone catch that interception return by baltimore? Nice way to cap off my Sunday...
 

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