KAN @ OKL -20
Lean (No Play): Kansas +20
I have Oklahoma ranked 40 places better than Kansas and home teams ranked 1-45 places better rarely lay more than 17.5 pts. This season it happened 4 times and the dog is 4-0 ATS. (Troy and Minnesota against Ohio State - two consecutive games after Ohio State's first loss, NCST against Clemson - forst lined game for Clemson after their first loss, and UCLA last week against Oregon). Last year this happened 9 times and the dogs went 8-1 ATS.
Is Oklahoma really 20 pts better than Kansas ? Is Oklahoma strong enough to bounce back after that crushing loss last week ? Oklahoma didn't lose to Texas as a favorite or a small dog of less than 5 pts since 1997. And from 1983 to 1997 it happened 7 times. They were 1-6 ATS following these losses. I know that it happened a long time ago, but tells me that this Oklahoma players and coaches have no clue how to react after such a devastating loss.
System of the week III
go against (fade) 6+wins teams after their first loss if they are favored by 4-33 pts, if they were not favored by 27.5+ and did not lose by 15+ in their first loss.
this system is 73-27-2 ATS for the underdog
and if they allowed 34+pts in that first loss, the dog is 24-1 ats. the only cover for the 1 loss favorite came when they had the bye week in between two games. oklahoma has no bye here. this system is 15-0 ats in last 14 years.
Lean (No Play): Kansas +20
I have Oklahoma ranked 40 places better than Kansas and home teams ranked 1-45 places better rarely lay more than 17.5 pts. This season it happened 4 times and the dog is 4-0 ATS. (Troy and Minnesota against Ohio State - two consecutive games after Ohio State's first loss, NCST against Clemson - forst lined game for Clemson after their first loss, and UCLA last week against Oregon). Last year this happened 9 times and the dogs went 8-1 ATS.
Is Oklahoma really 20 pts better than Kansas ? Is Oklahoma strong enough to bounce back after that crushing loss last week ? Oklahoma didn't lose to Texas as a favorite or a small dog of less than 5 pts since 1997. And from 1983 to 1997 it happened 7 times. They were 1-6 ATS following these losses. I know that it happened a long time ago, but tells me that this Oklahoma players and coaches have no clue how to react after such a devastating loss.
System of the week III
go against (fade) 6+wins teams after their first loss if they are favored by 4-33 pts, if they were not favored by 27.5+ and did not lose by 15+ in their first loss.
this system is 73-27-2 ATS for the underdog
and if they allowed 34+pts in that first loss, the dog is 24-1 ats. the only cover for the 1 loss favorite came when they had the bye week in between two games. oklahoma has no bye here. this system is 15-0 ats in last 14 years.
the following lean and play are from the same group of favorites that went 2-17-2 ats so far this season. (home teams ranked 10-45 places better, favored and having at least 63% of bets on them - looks like both will stay in that range).
FIU @ Troy -10
Lean (No Play): FIU +10
I went against FIU last week and lost that bet. Looks like I have them ranked too low. Beating North Texas is nothing special, but beating Toledo on the road and MTSU at home, as well as playing SFL close is something else. They've already achieved more success than in any of the past three seasons when they were able to cover the spread a couple of times early in the season, beat N.Texas and then lose all remaining games without covering the spread. From now on, every win or cover will go into their history books. Troy is not as good as in previous years, but for a Sun Belt team, they are definately able to reload every season, picking the best athletes avaiable. But even in last three seasons, when they were really good, they played FIU relatively close.FIU was able to keep it close in the first half only to collapse in the second. I believe that they are capable of staying within the reach a lot longer this time around. This line moved from Troy -7 to Troy -10 and everyone is on Troy, but keep in mind that the books usually are right with the opening number. I have Troy winning by 6-7 and now that this line is at -10, there is definately some value with Troy. I will not play it, but I'm definately leaning to FIU +10.
(weeks 5-9) teams 1 game over .500 after 1 win are 0-15 ats with the line -10/-12.5
MTSU @ Louisville -14.5
Play: Middle Tennessee State +14.5
This play is from that same2-17-2 group but more importantly they are in a group of favorites that also have a huge % of bets on the over that is 1-14 ats ytd and that is a perfect fit for this Louisville team that is now 0-8-1 ats in last 9 when they have a big % of bets on them and on the over.
I have Louisville favored by 10.5 pts with the total of 48. The average bettor will be surprised to see that Louisville is not favored by more against a subpar Sun Belt team that lost to Florida International, Arkansas State and Troy, and also needed a miracle in the last seconds to beat Florida Atlantic. Well, this MTSU team usually plays better against good teams. They lost by only 6 @ Kentucky, they beat Maryland by 10, and last year they won @ Memphis, lost by only 2 against Virginia, almost beat this same Louisville team as 40+ pts underdogs. They are definately capable of competing with big guys if they don't take them seriously, and Louisville is in a situation where they could lay an egg this week.
The Cardinals have a young team this season, and after their win @ Memphis, they had a few extra days of rest, and I don't think they were talking much about this game vs MTSU. The reason for that is their upcomming schedule against Big East teams that will start next week against the nationally ranked South Florida team. A huge home game for Louisville against one of the best teams in the nation that beat them 55:17 last year. Young and inexperienced teams like Louisville are usually caught looking ahead or in a letdown spot more often than veteran teams. Very dangerous game for Louisville against a Sun Belt team that is known for good performances against out of conference big name schools.
As I already said, Louisville seems to be unable to deliver when the betting public likes them & the over, and that is the case in this game. The closest numbers that they had recently (on them and on the over) were last season when they lost outright as big favorites against Utah, Syracuse and when they barely edged MTSU as 40 pts favorites.
They were also 0-2 ats last season when favored against an unranked team before facing a ranked team.
I will not have any more plays or leans this week, but if you need me to check or comment some games for you, I'll be glad to help.
FIU @ Troy -10
Lean (No Play): FIU +10
I went against FIU last week and lost that bet. Looks like I have them ranked too low. Beating North Texas is nothing special, but beating Toledo on the road and MTSU at home, as well as playing SFL close is something else. They've already achieved more success than in any of the past three seasons when they were able to cover the spread a couple of times early in the season, beat N.Texas and then lose all remaining games without covering the spread. From now on, every win or cover will go into their history books. Troy is not as good as in previous years, but for a Sun Belt team, they are definately able to reload every season, picking the best athletes avaiable. But even in last three seasons, when they were really good, they played FIU relatively close.FIU was able to keep it close in the first half only to collapse in the second. I believe that they are capable of staying within the reach a lot longer this time around. This line moved from Troy -7 to Troy -10 and everyone is on Troy, but keep in mind that the books usually are right with the opening number. I have Troy winning by 6-7 and now that this line is at -10, there is definately some value with Troy. I will not play it, but I'm definately leaning to FIU +10.
(weeks 5-9) teams 1 game over .500 after 1 win are 0-15 ats with the line -10/-12.5
MTSU @ Louisville -14.5
Play: Middle Tennessee State +14.5
This play is from that same2-17-2 group but more importantly they are in a group of favorites that also have a huge % of bets on the over that is 1-14 ats ytd and that is a perfect fit for this Louisville team that is now 0-8-1 ats in last 9 when they have a big % of bets on them and on the over.
I have Louisville favored by 10.5 pts with the total of 48. The average bettor will be surprised to see that Louisville is not favored by more against a subpar Sun Belt team that lost to Florida International, Arkansas State and Troy, and also needed a miracle in the last seconds to beat Florida Atlantic. Well, this MTSU team usually plays better against good teams. They lost by only 6 @ Kentucky, they beat Maryland by 10, and last year they won @ Memphis, lost by only 2 against Virginia, almost beat this same Louisville team as 40+ pts underdogs. They are definately capable of competing with big guys if they don't take them seriously, and Louisville is in a situation where they could lay an egg this week.
The Cardinals have a young team this season, and after their win @ Memphis, they had a few extra days of rest, and I don't think they were talking much about this game vs MTSU. The reason for that is their upcomming schedule against Big East teams that will start next week against the nationally ranked South Florida team. A huge home game for Louisville against one of the best teams in the nation that beat them 55:17 last year. Young and inexperienced teams like Louisville are usually caught looking ahead or in a letdown spot more often than veteran teams. Very dangerous game for Louisville against a Sun Belt team that is known for good performances against out of conference big name schools.
As I already said, Louisville seems to be unable to deliver when the betting public likes them & the over, and that is the case in this game. The closest numbers that they had recently (on them and on the over) were last season when they lost outright as big favorites against Utah, Syracuse and when they barely edged MTSU as 40 pts favorites.
They were also 0-2 ats last season when favored against an unranked team before facing a ranked team.
I will not have any more plays or leans this week, but if you need me to check or comment some games for you, I'll be glad to help.
Final list (no leans or plays will be changed and there will be no add.)
Plays:
Miami of Ohio +10 (buy 0.5)
Missouri +7 (buy 0.5)
Ole Miss +13
Eastern Michigan +3.5
Virginia +5
Middle Tennessee State +14.5
Leans (No Play):
Colorado State +21.5
Purdue +4
Rutgers +1.5
San Jose State moneyline
Kansas +20
Florida International +10
Plays:
Miami of Ohio +10 (buy 0.5)
Missouri +7 (buy 0.5)
Ole Miss +13
Eastern Michigan +3.5
Virginia +5
Middle Tennessee State +14.5
Leans (No Play):
Colorado State +21.5
Purdue +4
Rutgers +1.5
San Jose State moneyline
Kansas +20
Florida International +10
Had this game circled and was planning to play it, but by you jumping on it confirms that my formula and feelings were pretty good. I just hope MTSU can perform being this is their 2nd road game in two weeks.
Also, how do you feel or see the Wake/MD game playing out. I like the swing of points towards MD. What's ur thoughts??
as always... aloha.
