week 8 vegas line vs my ratings (systems, stats info & more inside) strong card !!!

[w365]

road teams ranked 43-80 places better and favored by a TD or less are 0-8 ats if at least 62% of public bets are on them. several teams are in this category in week 8. nebraska (as long as they are favored by 7 or less - wouldn't surprise me to see them go up to -7.5 or -8), wake, marshall, akron and uconn.


Akron -3.5 @ EMU
Play: EMU +3.5
*This line could rise up to +4*

Probably one of the fishiest two lines on the board this week. 3-4 Akron (4-3 ATS) is favored by only 3.5 at 2-5 Eastern Michigan (1-5 ATS) that lost to Army last week. The betting world is reacting accordingly, as they are simply pounding Akron in this one.

Akron was already in this situation two weeks back when they were favored by 3.5 at Kent. They failed to cover that spread.

I'm not so sure that this game will be easy for Akron. First of all, this is their 8 straight game that involved travelling since week 1, without any bye weeks yet. In last three weeks they were involved in three extremely tight games. First they lost by 2 to a fellow Ohio team (Cincinnati) as 12 pts underdogs after leading with just under 8 minutes left in that very physicall game. Then they went to Kent State (another rivalery game), trailed almost wire to wire, only to take the lead with a couple of minutes left in the game, and lose that lead in the final seconds of the game. The game went in overtime and Akron won by 3. And finally last week, they hosted Bowling Green, led by double digits in three different occasions, 14-0, 21-7 and 27-14, only to collapse in the fourth quarter when they were outscored 23-6. They lost the game 37:33. They were outgained in all of their last three games and with their defense ranked #97 in total yards and #111 in rushing yards, they should not be favored on the road against anyone.

EMU lost their starting QB a few weeks back and stil won at Bowling Green as 19 pts underdogs with the new QB. Last week was a natural letdown for them when they faced Army and lost. Even in that loss, their new QB Schmitt played well (21/29 for 253 yds and TD) and they outrushed Army 147:94. Don't forget that this Akron team also struggled against Army, earlier this season when they were in top form and Army looked like the worst team in football. Akron ended up winning and covering the spread but the game was very close for three quarters, and Army outrushed Akron by a few yards.

These two teams did not meet since 2003 and the series was dominated by the home team from 1996 to 2003 (home team went 7-0 SU and the underdog went 5-0 ats in last 5).

As I said last week, I will not stop fading MAC East teams against MAC West teams until they prove that they can win. So far this season, MAC East teams are winless against MAC West teams (0-10 straight up).

 

[w365]

w365, thanks for all the info. i have a ?. is missouri still a play at +5.5 or is it a more of a lean? how far down should it go before its not a play. thanks.

at +5.5 it would be just a lean

 

[w365]

Like each one of your plays a lot this week. Too bad, you aren't playing Purdue though, they'll pull out the win IMO. GL

if purdue played against any other team in last two weeks i would go for it but i wonder how much they have left in the tank. gl !!!

 

[MikRetSam]

love your stuff, have you considered adding the rotation # and time of game ........ thanks keep it up

 

[beerformyhorses]

thanks w365. i will watch the lione and play accordingly.

 

[w365]

UCONN -1.5 @ Rutgers
Lean (No Play): Rutgers +1.5

I was a big admirer of UConn football earlier this season and I believe I stoped betting on them in time, just after I got the win in their game vs Louisville. In their very next game, against UNC I advised people that they either stay away or go with UNC. UNC won that game big. I stil admire these guy's ability to win, and to cover, but with their QB situation and fading defense (allowed a total of 22 pts in their first three games and 87 points in the following three games), I think they've lost their mojo and the books are finally catching up with this team.

They are comming off of a bye week and that's great, but I believe that Rutgers will be in this game from start to finish. It is a real rivalery game and the only reason that keeps me from making Rutgers an official play is the scheduling. Uconn is well rested and Rutgers played @ Cincinnati and @ WVA in last two weeks.

 

[w365]

love your stuff, have you considered adding the rotation # and time of game ........ thanks keep it up

i will do that with my college basketball selections but i believe that it is not very hard to find the games as we only have 52 games this week and 7 days to make the bets. hope you understand. gl this week.

 

[w365]

thanks w365. i will watch the lione and play accordingly.

good. gl this week

 

[w365]

UNC -5 @ Virginia
Play: Virginia +5

I have North Carolina ranked some 36 places better than Virginia, and ranked teams, playing unranked teams, rated 10-80 places better on the road are 5-10 ATS if not favored by more than 14. Very rarely these teams are favored by less than a TD. So far this season we had 3 teams in this situation and all three lost against the spread. Fresno went to OT against Toledo, Vanderbilt lost outright to Mississippi State last week and Wisconsin lost at Michigan.

North Carolina was definately on their emotional high last week and they could find it difficult to get at that energy level again this week after riding the emotions for three straight weeks. First they went to Miami with their backup QB, and got the outright win as the 7 pts underdogs. Then they beat then ranked UConn at home as 8 pts favorites, and finally last week they hosted Notre Dame, a team that would probably be ranked this week had they won @ UNC last week. UNC won that game as well, but it wasn't easy and the energy they spent on the field was huge.They trailed 7-0, 10-3, 17-6 and 24-18. They finally took the lead for good in the fourth quarter but stil failed to cover the spread for their backers.

They have a good team, but I stil believe that all the hype around this team is not justified. People talk about their defense like they are the world beaters or something. They are good at creating turnovers but they stil allow big chunks of yards to their opponents game after game after game. I agree that Virginia's three wins came against not so good teams, but who did the Tar Heels beat ? The overrated Notre Dame, UConn, Miami, the 1-5 Rutgers and div.I-AA McNesse State ? Sorry but I don't see any good team on that list. What is more important to me here, is how did they beat those teams, assuming that they have beaten some very bad and overrated teams.

Virginia destroyed ECU, Maryland and Richmond with the combined score of 82-20, outgaining every team by at least 100 total yards. They outpassed all of their opponents ytd except USC. In last two weeks they rushed for 202 (6.1 ypc) and 207 yards (4.9 ypc). At the same time they allowed 78 and 89 rushing yards. After two straight home upset wins, they should remain pumped up as they now host a ranked team and they are home dogs with no respect once again.

As for UNC, they were outgained in all of their three wins vs ND, Mia and UConn, and that number got worst from game to game, as they were outgained by 10 against Miami, by 115 against UConn and by 150 against Notre Dame. You just can't keep winning forever with such bad numbers.

After playing three teams with a winning record, they now have to keep their motivation up against a 3-3 team, before playing BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland in the next three games. Not gonna happen.

Keep in mind that being a road fave is the unknown territory for this team. Not same beating Miami and Rutgers as road dogs and winning and covering on the road while being favored in a road game for the first time in ages.


system of the week II: in games 3-9 play on home dogs getting 2.5-7.5 points after a home dog win, against teams that played at home in their previous game and did not lose by double digits. 30-3-1 ats in last 34.

 

[jetro315]

Purdue is one of my favorite plays of the week. I think them and NW are pretty even teams and Purdue getting 4 is a nice gift b/c of the level of comp. I think Purdue will win on the field and they are def one of my bigger plays this week.

Other big plays:
Buf-11.5
Navy+4.5
Mich St+3.5

small plays:
TCU+1.5
Ari+2
Vir +5

Leans:
Rutg+2.5
Duke +6
Miss+13
Mary+3
Mizz+6
N.Ill-8.5
SC +3
Tulsa-17.5
Ill-16
AFA-6(they always burn me)
N.Tex+18

Obviously will cut down my leans, but I do like most of these games quite a bit. I haven't completed research on all of them yet but have a pretty good idea.

I like the looks of the Miami(Oh) pick as well. Haven't looked into that game yet but your write up makes sense. They played really well last week at N.Ill.

 

[w365]

road teams ranked 1-31 places better, favored by 3 or less or underdogs of 4.5 or less are 22-5 ats ytd. breaking down this group of teams i discovered that favorites or underdogs of not more than 1 pt are 13-0 ats, underdogs of 3-4.5 pts are 5-0 ats and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 pts are only 5-5. A total of 10 teams fit this system this week. One of them is San Jose State as -2 favorite at New Mexico State.


San Jose State -2 @ New Mexico State
Lean (No Play): San Jose State moneyline (-130)

Here is a classic matchup of a team that has a very good defense and an opportunistic offense that will not score much but will score when needed, against a great offensive team (but one-dimensional) with no defense whatsoever.

San Jose State is really flying under the radar in the WAC right now. The only reason why this is not an official play for me is SJS hosting Boise next week. They are in a lookahead spot here but I stil believe that they can handle NMSU. They have a great defense ranked #5 in the nation in the pass efficiency defense, #8 in takeaways, #13 in total defense, #7 in sacks, #5 in first downs defense#18 in third down defense and so on. They are also #11 in the nation in the turnover ratio, they are 4-1 ats this season, 7-1 ats in last 8 and they won and covered last 4 vs new mexico state.

New Mexico State can't run, can't defend, and their only weapon is C.Holbrook and the air attack. It is a good one, but a good defense (especially a good passing defense) should have no trouble stoping them.
They played at Nevada last week, got the upset win as the 21 pts underdogs in a game that featured 4 ties and 7 lead changes. There was no defense in that game that ended 48-45. Nevada rushed 42 times against NMSU for 313 yards (7.5 ypc) and NMSU defense will have hard time recovering in time for their game against SJSU.

teams with the line in the +19.5/-7 range, are 17-44 ATS after a road game in which they did not lose by more than 5 despite allowing 25+ points as 17+ pts underdogs. and if they won that game, they are 2-18 ats in the following game

 

[w365]

road teams ranked 1-31 places better, favored by 3 or less or underdogs of 4.5 or less are 22-5 ats ytd. breaking down this group of teams i discovered that favorites or underdogs of not more than 1 pt are 13-0 ats, underdogs of 3-4.5 pts are 5-0 ats and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 pts are only 5-5. A total of 10 teams fit this system this week. One of them is San Jose State as -2 favorite at New Mexico State.


San Jose State -2 @ New Mexico State
Lean (No Play): San Jose State moneyline (-130)

Here is a classic matchup of a team that has a very good defense and an opportunistic offense that will not score much but will score when needed, against a great offensive team (but one-dimensional) with no defense whatsoever.

San Jose State is really flying under the radar in the WAC right now. The only reason why this is not an official play for me is SJS hosting Boise next week. They are in a lookahead spot here but I stil believe that they can handle NMSU. They have a great defense ranked #5 in the nation in the pass efficiency defense, #8 in takeaways, #13 in total defense, #7 in sacks, #5 in first downs defense#18 in third down defense and so on. They are also #11 in the nation in the turnover ratio, they are 4-1 ats this season, 7-1 ats in last 8 and they won and covered last 4 vs new mexico state.

New Mexico State can't run, can't defend, and their only weapon is C.Holbrook and the air attack. It is a good one, but a good defense (especially a good passing defense) should have no trouble stoping them.
They played at Nevada last week, got the upset win as the 21 pts underdogs in a game that featured 4 ties and 7 lead changes. There was no defense in that game that ended 48-45. Nevada rushed 42 times against NMSU for 313 yards (7.5 ypc) and NMSU defense will have hard time recovering in time for their game against SJSU.

teams with the line in the +19.5/-7 range, are 17-44 ATS after a road game in which they did not lose by more than 5 despite allowing 25+ points as 17+ pts underdogs. and if they won that game, they are 2-18 ats in the following game

btw other than sjsu, the following teams fit the same system: pitts, byu, ohio state, lsu, v.tech, arkansas state, wmu, cal and stanf.

 

[w365]

Purdue is one of my favorite plays of the week. I think them and NW are pretty even teams and Purdue getting 4 is a nice gift b/c of the level of comp. I think Purdue will win on the field and they are def one of my bigger plays this week.

Other big plays:
Buf-11.5
Navy+4.5
Mich St+3.5

small plays:
TCU+1.5
Ari+2
Vir +5

Leans:
Rutg+2.5
Duke +6
Miss+13
Mary+3
Mizz+6
N.Ill-8.5
SC +3
Tulsa-17.5
Ill-16
AFA-6(they always burn me)
N.Tex+18

Obviously will cut down my leans, but I do like most of these games quite a bit. I haven't completed research on all of them yet but have a pretty good idea.

I like the looks of the Miami(Oh) pick as well. Haven't looked into that game yet but your write up makes sense. They played really well last week at N.Ill.

looks like a winning card...gl my friend.

 

[w365]

i'm looking at a few more games...probably 1 more play and 1-2 leans...check back tomorrow or on friday.

 

[MMfan]

Thanks again. I love the write ups and have had great success wiht you. I'm riding again with you this weekend :toast:

 

[w365]

Thanks again. I love the write ups and have had great success wiht you. I'm riding again with you this weekend :toast:

glad to hear that

 

[MikRetSam]

great job 365......... you play all of them for 1 unit? have you considered a unit basis? i love miami-ohio... this same team crushed b.g. last year by like 5 tds

 

[w365]

all for 1 unit...no nead to unload on any game....gl

 

[w365]

gl to those of you having money on tinights games...i'll sit back and watch

one more play and two leans will be posted tomorrow.

 

[w365]

fwiw i checked back since the start of the 2007 season to find out what happens with a line change like in the tcu/byu game...

when a public favorite (byu) becomes a dog (and the closing line favorite is not a public team:

since 2007, the team that closed as favorite (must have less than 50% of action on them) is 4-9 ats.