we went through all that analysis with the line etc when Tampa hosted Denver and Tampa got smoked anyways.
Wish we didn't spend so much time on this board saying "well vegas wants you on this side or that side". It's overthinking and largely a bunch of bullshit.
He's right, Oakland is better, and at the given odds should cover because they win the game outright. Tampa ia bad.
5th pick (small lean)
JETS -3 AT BROWNS
1. Typically I add 5-6 points on a road fav if you are asking yourself what would they be favoured if at home, so in this case the books are saying the jets would of been favoured by 8 or 9 at home!!! which is crazy since the jets are not very good, don't get me wrong the browns aren't any better, but i can't trust the jets laying 3 on the road versus anyone let alone the browns !!!!
2. The Browns and hue Jackson do not want to be the 5th team in history to go 0-16, and this spot at home gives them the opportunity to break the goose egg, because the only other winnable game would be vs the ravens on the road in week 10, the rest of there schedule is tough... (Cowboys, Steelers, Giants, Bengals, and chargers at home, Bills and Steelers on the road) the browns have been competitive in there 7 losses all except vs the patriots but everyone gets beat badly by the patriots !!!
3. QB Josh McCown is back, last time he played the browns were up 20-2 vs the ravens and McCown got hurt, the browns subsequently lost that game 25-20 without him, look for some extra motivation now that he is back starting at home !!!
4. Ryan Shitzpatrick is back after a brief benching since Geno Smith went down early last week, Shitzpatrick has a beauty ratio of 11 INT's to his 6 TD's and even though they put up 24 points on the ravens last week there 4 games prior. they failed to score 18 points or more??... and they are the road fav???
5. CB Joe Haden will be back to take away Shitzpatricks favourite weapon WR Brandon Marshall
TAKING THE BROWNS +3 (SMALL LEAN 5 UNITS)
BROWNS 21 JETS 17
**** have one more small lean will post shortly can't find any bigger plays like my top 4 plays for this week
recap
GOTW 25 UNITS
SAINTS +3
LARGE PLAY 15 UNITS
CHARGERS +5.5
REG PLAY 10 UNITS
COLTS +3
RAIDERS +1.5
SMALL LEAN 5 UNITS
BROWNS +3
CHEERS
TSF
JETS -3 AT BROWNS
1. Typically I add 5-6 points on a road fav if you are asking yourself what would they be favoured if at home, so in this case the books are saying the jets would of been favoured by 8 or 9 at home!!! which is crazy since the jets are not very good, don't get me wrong the browns aren't any better, but i can't trust the jets laying 3 on the road versus anyone let alone the browns !!!!
2. The Browns and hue Jackson do not want to be the 5th team in history to go 0-16, and this spot at home gives them the opportunity to break the goose egg, because the only other winnable game would be vs the ravens on the road in week 10, the rest of there schedule is tough... (Cowboys, Steelers, Giants, Bengals, and chargers at home, Bills and Steelers on the road) the browns have been competitive in there 7 losses all except vs the patriots but everyone gets beat badly by the patriots !!!
3. QB Josh McCown is back, last time he played the browns were up 20-2 vs the ravens and McCown got hurt, the browns subsequently lost that game 25-20 without him, look for some extra motivation now that he is back starting at home !!!
4. Ryan Shitzpatrick is back after a brief benching since Geno Smith went down early last week, Shitzpatrick has a beauty ratio of 11 INT's to his 6 TD's and even though they put up 24 points on the ravens last week there 4 games prior. they failed to score 18 points or more??... and they are the road fav???
5. CB Joe Haden will be back to take away Shitzpatricks favourite weapon WR Brandon Marshall
TAKING THE BROWNS +3 (SMALL LEAN 5 UNITS)
BROWNS 21 JETS 17
**** have one more small lean will post shortly can't find any bigger plays like my top 4 plays for this week
recap
GOTW 25 UNITS
SAINTS +3
LARGE PLAY 15 UNITS
CHARGERS +5.5
REG PLAY 10 UNITS
COLTS +3
RAIDERS +1.5
SMALL LEAN 5 UNITS
BROWNS +3
CHEERS
TSF
The Top 20 leaders in this years Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest week 8 picks correspond with my choices !!! Great handicappers vying for 1 million bucks this year 1st place estimated take !! far cry when our group won 306k in 2006 !!!!
2nd pick at 10 choices are the Saints +3 ( 50% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Browns +3 (40% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Colts +3 (40% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Raiders +1.5 (40% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Chargers +5.5 (40% of the top 20)
The 1st pick at 11 choices are the Patriots -6.5.... I personally don't like this game
The 3rd pick at 9 choices are the Eagles +4.5 .... I am on the fence on this game, leaning a bit towards Cowboys but no official pick
cheers:toast:
tsf
2nd pick at 10 choices are the Saints +3 ( 50% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Browns +3 (40% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Colts +3 (40% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Raiders +1.5 (40% of the top 20)
4th pick at 8 choices are the Chargers +5.5 (40% of the top 20)
The 1st pick at 11 choices are the Patriots -6.5.... I personally don't like this game
The 3rd pick at 9 choices are the Eagles +4.5 .... I am on the fence on this game, leaning a bit towards Cowboys but no official pick
cheers:toast:
tsf
UPDATE
YTD 24-12-2 ATS 63% +188 Units
GOTW 5-0 ATS
TODAY WEEK 8...3-1-1 ATS +30 UNITS
GOTW
SAINTS +3 WINNER 25 UNITS
SAINTS ML WINNER 6 UNITS
RAIDERS +1.5 WINNER 10 UNITS
BROWNS -3 PUSH
COLTS +3 10 UNITS LOST
PENDING
CHARGERS +5.5
Will post a play for tonight
cheers
tsf
YTD 24-12-2 ATS 63% +188 Units
GOTW 5-0 ATS
TODAY WEEK 8...3-1-1 ATS +30 UNITS
GOTW
SAINTS +3 WINNER 25 UNITS
SAINTS ML WINNER 6 UNITS
RAIDERS +1.5 WINNER 10 UNITS
BROWNS -3 PUSH
COLTS +3 10 UNITS LOST
PENDING
CHARGERS +5.5
Will post a play for tonight
cheers
tsf
SUNDAY PRIMETIME PICK
EAGLES AT COWBOYS -5
1. This long time rivalry is for the NFC East lead, and also will showcase the current NFL offensive rookie of the year race, with Eagles stud QB Carson Wentz, and Cowboys stud Qb Dak Prescott, and RB Sensation Ezekiel Elliott all in play, but the difference in this game is home advantage !!! The Eagles are not that good on the road and allow 14 more points getting scored against them on the road than at home, and the Cowboys are coming off that bye, more time to prepare for this matchup!!!
2. Cowboy's surprisingly tough defense has yet to allow an opposing 100-yard rusher or receiver.
3. Eagles banged up secondary could open things up for Dak Prescott, who has a 100-plus passer rating in five games in a row.
4 Dallas has a +27 1st quarter point differential, in other words they get out to big leads early and run the ball down your throat with RB Elliot who is averaging 117 Yards Per Game !!!
5 On the flip side the Eagles have been outscored 21-0 in the first quarter in there last 3 games !!! hence I like the 1st half play (Which I rarely play) and the game!!!!!
TAKING COWBOYS 1ST HALF -2.5 10 UNITS
TAKING COWBOYS -5 THE GAME 10 UNITS
COWBOYS 31 EAGLES 17
CHEERS
TSF
EAGLES AT COWBOYS -5
1. This long time rivalry is for the NFC East lead, and also will showcase the current NFL offensive rookie of the year race, with Eagles stud QB Carson Wentz, and Cowboys stud Qb Dak Prescott, and RB Sensation Ezekiel Elliott all in play, but the difference in this game is home advantage !!! The Eagles are not that good on the road and allow 14 more points getting scored against them on the road than at home, and the Cowboys are coming off that bye, more time to prepare for this matchup!!!
2. Cowboy's surprisingly tough defense has yet to allow an opposing 100-yard rusher or receiver.
3. Eagles banged up secondary could open things up for Dak Prescott, who has a 100-plus passer rating in five games in a row.
4 Dallas has a +27 1st quarter point differential, in other words they get out to big leads early and run the ball down your throat with RB Elliot who is averaging 117 Yards Per Game !!!
5 On the flip side the Eagles have been outscored 21-0 in the first quarter in there last 3 games !!! hence I like the 1st half play (Which I rarely play) and the game!!!!!
TAKING COWBOYS 1ST HALF -2.5 10 UNITS
TAKING COWBOYS -5 THE GAME 10 UNITS
COWBOYS 31 EAGLES 17
CHEERS
TSF
Thank you Big Mike i am glad you did well early!!!
The chargers had there chances for the backdoor cover twice but failed miserably lol!!
I tried something different with the first half play at dallas and looked real smart untill Dak threw that INT in the redzone late 1st half !!!
I admit got lucky with the game cover but thats gambling in the NFL !!!!
CHEERS
TSF
YTD 25-14-2 ATS 61% + 171 UNITS
GOTW 5-0 ATS
Week 8...4-3-1 ATS +13 UNITS
Monday Night
Vikings -5 at Bears
Here's the deal I hate QB Jay Cutler he is beyond a prick and does not deserve i job in a Subway restaurant let alone a job as a prestigious QB in the NFL!!!! How can I bet the bears led by this moron !!! I cant !!!! Here is a beauty quote from this asshole a few days ago.... when asked from one of the local media outlets in chicago the question was now that you are back playing since you were healthy last week and brian hoyer played and now he is on IR, what does coach John Fox said to you since he didnt play you last week when you were healthy ??? Cutler said Um he doesnt really have a choice does he !!!!
Wow this guy is so gone once the season is done maybe he can go start next year for the browns with Osweiler as his back up !!!!
No analysis
Taking Vikings - 5 small lean 5 units
Vikings 24 Bears 10
cheers
tsf
GOTW 5-0 ATS
Week 8...4-3-1 ATS +13 UNITS
Monday Night
Vikings -5 at Bears
Here's the deal I hate QB Jay Cutler he is beyond a prick and does not deserve i job in a Subway restaurant let alone a job as a prestigious QB in the NFL!!!! How can I bet the bears led by this moron !!! I cant !!!! Here is a beauty quote from this asshole a few days ago.... when asked from one of the local media outlets in chicago the question was now that you are back playing since you were healthy last week and brian hoyer played and now he is on IR, what does coach John Fox said to you since he didnt play you last week when you were healthy ??? Cutler said Um he doesnt really have a choice does he !!!!
Wow this guy is so gone once the season is done maybe he can go start next year for the browns with Osweiler as his back up !!!!
No analysis
Taking Vikings - 5 small lean 5 units
Vikings 24 Bears 10
cheers
tsf
Well Will i guess when in doubt bet or side with the asshole !!!! Hard to win when you give up 167 yards to a rookie running back !!! what happened to the stout vikings D ?? I didnt watch the game was too busy with kids and halloween shananigans!!! should of left the game alone, overall had a descent week thank god my big plays cashed in the saints!!! on to the next week !!!
cheers
tsf
