3* Toledo/ CMU- over 62 This will be a battle of "keep up with the scoring". It seems that when two of a conference's better teams face off, if they have strong offenses, that the score tends to be higher than if they are playing a lesser team. Neither team can dare play conservatively on offense. The whole playbook, and some new kinks and trick plays, will be on display. Both Toledo and CMU are perfect for this kind of scoring because neither is one dimensional. Both have very good passing QBs, and both can run the ball well- especially Toledo. Also, both teams also seem to be giving up a lot of points when playing better opponents. Yeah, CMU can hold to Ball State to 21, but gave up 49 to both WMU and Virginia. Toledo just tries to outscore every opponent, and at 5-1, it's been working. Between Logan Woodside and Cooper Rush, the 2 QBs, they have passed for 42 TDs.
1* San Jose State +23.5 Should be on this for more, but we'll see how the BYU game shakes out. San Jose might have found a workhorse RB in Malik Roberson, who helps their weak OL keep defenses honest and ripping through to go after QB Kenny Potter. Actually, SJ has a decent running game, and this is always a good thing when getting this many points. Potter is a pretty good passing QB, hitting at 67% last season. But he is not very mobile and SJ's OL has been allowing him to get sacked too many times. Potter also could help by throwing the ball away sooner when in trouble. San Jose held Nevada's star RB Butler to 94 yards last week and handled Hawaii's running game pretty well. But this week they'll have to load up the box to handle a truly great back, and Heisman possibility, in Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey already has 167 carries this year, and hopefully, for the sake of this play, they allow him to scale back. SD State is a funny team. One week they lose by 18 to a crummy South Alabama team, and another week they beat Cal. But they have NOT been blowing teams out by margins of 23+. And they lose 2 defensive starters this week from their tough D. SD St. will happy to just win this game, knowing they have no byes left until the end of the season. San Jose has enough offense to get 13-20 points and keep within the number.
Part of it is that LSU can run on Ole Miss, which is their biggest weakness. But Ole Miss put up 522 yards on that Bama defense, and can do that here. I also think bettors are convinced that LSU is going to play like everyone expected them to when they were ranked #5(I'm not). I would like to have gotten 7, but I think I'm just going to settle for what I got at 3* with +4.5.
Small, but hit some of these last week:
1* UNT +18 North Texas is off a bye and seems to have finally escaped the dismal failures of last year. In fact, they played much better even last year after firing head coach Dan MCarney. This spread is so high because Army is a handful to defend. However, UNT, with an extra week, will at least have that advantage. Army is having a great season at 4-2, especially compared to the past many seasons when they were plain awful. But they are still Army, a team that doesn't have much team speed on defense, and can be beaten by a decent passing game. I think UNT's QB, Mason Fine, has shown that he is the future there. He was invited as a walk on at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but honored his commitment to UNT. He is 62% passer in his last 3 games with no picks. He is also a scrambler that can buy himself time to pass. A freshman that seems to be improving game by game. Army has lost to Buffalo and Duke, and I expect they will come down to earth at some point. If UNT can effectively pass here, they can win or keep it close, and 18 is just too many points to pass up for an underdog that is off a bye and has confidence.
1* UNT +18 North Texas is off a bye and seems to have finally escaped the dismal failures of last year. In fact, they played much better even last year after firing head coach Dan MCarney. This spread is so high because Army is a handful to defend. However, UNT, with an extra week, will at least have that advantage. Army is having a great season at 4-2, especially compared to the past many seasons when they were plain awful. But they are still Army, a team that doesn't have much team speed on defense, and can be beaten by a decent passing game. I think UNT's QB, Mason Fine, has shown that he is the future there. He was invited as a walk on at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but honored his commitment to UNT. He is 62% passer in his last 3 games with no picks. He is also a scrambler that can buy himself time to pass. A freshman that seems to be improving game by game. Army has lost to Buffalo and Duke, and I expect they will come down to earth at some point. If UNT can effectively pass here, they can win or keep it close, and 18 is just too many points to pass up for an underdog that is off a bye and has confidence.
USF/ Temple over hits..with +10 units to start the week, I got to play on:
2* WMU -23.5 This is a solid play under any circumstances. I would have hit it earlier, but was hoping the line was going to drop. Right off the bat, I'll admit that EMU is having a great season for them. 5-2 is an incredible season for EMU considering they usually win 2-3 at the most in a full season. But…after beating Ohio last week(a weak Ohio team, might I say), they have been in a celebratory mood. Almost, as if they have accomplished as much as they thought they would prior to the season. Also, Brogan Roback, a 4th year junior, had his best game in his career last week. Roback has been an on and off again starting QB since 2013 for a reason. And I doubt he repeats last week's performance @WMU. EMU has a mediocre running game, and a defense that is better than expected, but still too porous to stop this Western Michigan team. As I said in last week's write-up, WMU is like a mid-level Big 10 team. They already beat Northwestern and Illinois and seem to get up for challenges like last week's thrashing on the road of Akron, or their 39 point win @ CMU. They are THAT good. If you get a chance watch their QB, Zach Terrell. Best QB no one knows about. Besides his passing and running skills, he's a great decision maker, and is surrounded by talent. If WMU doesn't cover, it'll be because they allow Roback too much time to throw. WMU has no game next Saturday, and don't play until November 1.
2* WMU -23.5 This is a solid play under any circumstances. I would have hit it earlier, but was hoping the line was going to drop. Right off the bat, I'll admit that EMU is having a great season for them. 5-2 is an incredible season for EMU considering they usually win 2-3 at the most in a full season. But…after beating Ohio last week(a weak Ohio team, might I say), they have been in a celebratory mood. Almost, as if they have accomplished as much as they thought they would prior to the season. Also, Brogan Roback, a 4th year junior, had his best game in his career last week. Roback has been an on and off again starting QB since 2013 for a reason. And I doubt he repeats last week's performance @WMU. EMU has a mediocre running game, and a defense that is better than expected, but still too porous to stop this Western Michigan team. As I said in last week's write-up, WMU is like a mid-level Big 10 team. They already beat Northwestern and Illinois and seem to get up for challenges like last week's thrashing on the road of Akron, or their 39 point win @ CMU. They are THAT good. If you get a chance watch their QB, Zach Terrell. Best QB no one knows about. Besides his passing and running skills, he's a great decision maker, and is surrounded by talent. If WMU doesn't cover, it'll be because they allow Roback too much time to throw. WMU has no game next Saturday, and don't play until November 1.
For the most part I haven't done well on 1*, so tail at your own risk:
1* Colorado +2 Even if McCaffrey plays, he likely won't be 100%, and this Colorado team is solid in every way. I especially like Colorado's offense with Liufau back in control. I still go back to that Michigan game where they were looking at the same competitive level..until Liufau went out. Stanford, though, is a dangerous wounded animal so hopefully the Buffs come to play.
1* Arkansas +10.5 I'll bite. Auburn blew out Miss. State, which is having a poor season, but really are they able offensively able to cover this spread? Arkansas hung in there for 3 quarters with Bama and A&M, and I think they'll hang in there for all 4 here. They can win with a break or two.
1* Houston -22.5 Waited too long on this and missed the -21. But SMU has such a piss poor offense that I can see the Cougars getting great field position and turnovers here. Houston way overdue for beating up on a cream puff like this. SMU QB Ben Hicks is one of the worst QBs I've seen this year.
1* Navy +2 Navy took a half a season to get their offense working properly, but it seems like they have adjusted to the loss of their QB. Last year, Memphis had no chance vs. this offense, and now they are on the road and without Paxton Lynch. Riley ferguson has good numbers, but when you see him play, he's not that impressive.
1* Illinois +39.5 Michigan usually has no mercy, but I don't think Illinois' offense is nearly as inept as Rutgers. Also, it is rare to see a team win consistently with these margins especially when the QB play is average like Michigan's. Illinois has to move the ball enough to get a couple of scores, and they should cover. I also think this spread could be an overreaction to the Rutgers game.
1* Colorado +2 Even if McCaffrey plays, he likely won't be 100%, and this Colorado team is solid in every way. I especially like Colorado's offense with Liufau back in control. I still go back to that Michigan game where they were looking at the same competitive level..until Liufau went out. Stanford, though, is a dangerous wounded animal so hopefully the Buffs come to play.
1* Arkansas +10.5 I'll bite. Auburn blew out Miss. State, which is having a poor season, but really are they able offensively able to cover this spread? Arkansas hung in there for 3 quarters with Bama and A&M, and I think they'll hang in there for all 4 here. They can win with a break or two.
1* Houston -22.5 Waited too long on this and missed the -21. But SMU has such a piss poor offense that I can see the Cougars getting great field position and turnovers here. Houston way overdue for beating up on a cream puff like this. SMU QB Ben Hicks is one of the worst QBs I've seen this year.
1* Navy +2 Navy took a half a season to get their offense working properly, but it seems like they have adjusted to the loss of their QB. Last year, Memphis had no chance vs. this offense, and now they are on the road and without Paxton Lynch. Riley ferguson has good numbers, but when you see him play, he's not that impressive.
1* Illinois +39.5 Michigan usually has no mercy, but I don't think Illinois' offense is nearly as inept as Rutgers. Also, it is rare to see a team win consistently with these margins especially when the QB play is average like Michigan's. Illinois has to move the ball enough to get a couple of scores, and they should cover. I also think this spread could be an overreaction to the Rutgers game.
Any chance you have thoughts on UMD vs MSU? MSU is 3 point favorite on the road, but UMD hasn't shown the ability to compete with Nebraska/MSU/Michigan/OSU since moving to the Big Ten.
MD has new energy with Durkin, but I really don't see them competing here especially after losing to Minnesota @ home and most likely a true freshman starting at QB
MD has new energy with Durkin, but I really don't see them competing here especially after losing to Minnesota @ home and most likely a true freshman starting at QB
