Week 7 Picks

ChadC · Oct 13, 2003

Couple plays stand out already, will have write-ups and more later.

Chargers +6
Chiefs -3.5
Lions +3.5
Ravens -1.5
Vikings -3 (wagerstreet)
Rams -4
Atlanta +2
Texans +3

[This message was edited by ChadC on October 14, 2003 at 10:49 PM.]

[This message was edited by ChadC on October 17, 2003 at 10:01 PM.]

[This message was edited by ChadC on October 18, 2003 at 09:37 PM.]

ChadC · Oct 14, 2003

Adding:

Rams -4

Don't have the numbers, but I always play against Brett Favre in domes no matter who he is playing.

JESUS · Oct 14, 2003

ChadC if you have numbers or anyone out there on Favre playing on turf or indoors can you post them up. Thank you.

THEBUFFROCK · Oct 14, 2003

Farve is 11-19 on turf

ChadC · Oct 14, 2003

Lions +3.5

-Dallas are 2-5-0 ATS in their last 7 games against Detroit
-Dallas are 2-4-0 ATS in their last 6 away games against Detroit
-Dallas are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
-Dallas are 2-4-0 SU in their last 6 games after being .5 to 3 point favorites

-Detroit are 10-5-0 ATS in their last 15 home games
-Detroit are 5-2-0 ATS in their last 7 games against Dallas
-Detroit are 4-2-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against Dallas
-Detroit are 4-2-0 ATS in their last 6 games
-Detroit are 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 10 to 20 points

Unfortunately I am a Lions fan and I never bet on them. But this is to good for me to pass on. This is the thrid straight season that Dallas has traveled to Detroit and Detroit won the first two SU. Let's put this in perspective. The Lions have only won five games the past two seasons and two of them were against Dallas. Dallas is hot right now, but the past two meetings tell me that Detroit matches up well man for man with them. This is going to be a boring sloppy game I believe, but 3.5 is a good play in my book.

ChadC · Oct 14, 2003

Rams -4

-St. Louis are 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Green Bay
-St. Louis are 6-2-0 SU in their last 8 games after scoring 31 to 40 points
-Off Division Game 10 2 0 83.33% (playing at home)
-Opponent Less Than 500 5 2 1 71.43%
-Team More Than 500 9 5 1 64.29%

-Green Bay are 1-4-0 ATS in their last 5 games against St. Louis
-Green Bay are 2-4-0 ATS in their last 6 away games
-Green Bay are 6-12-0 SU in their last 18 games after scoring 31 to 40 points
-Green Bay are 2-7-0 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 31 to 40 points
-Green Bay are 1-4-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being .5 to 3 point favorites
-Off Loss 1 4 0 20.00% (last 5 years as a road dog)

Theory here is to always play against the Packers in domes. Another thing I noticed when looking at this game I can see how good the Rams defense is at home. They only allow 85 yards per game on the ground, only allow 167 per game through the air, the creat an average of 2.7 turnovers per game, allow 12 points per game, all at home this season. The Packers are 29th in the league against the pass this season and they have allowed an average of 130 yards per game on the ground in away games this season.

ChadC · Oct 14, 2003

Ravens -1.5

-Baltimore are 13-6-0 ATS in their last 19 games
-Baltimore are 5-1-0 ATS in their last 6 away games
-Baltimore are 7-3-0 ATS in their last 10 away games against Cincinnati
-Baltimore are 6-1-0 ATS in their last 7 games against Cincinnati
-After playing Cardinals are 4-1

-Cincinnati are 7-14-0 ATS in their last 21 games
-Cincinnati are 1-9-0 ATS in their last 10 home games
-Cincinnati are 3-7-0 ATS in their last 10 home games against Baltimore
-Cincinnati are 1-6-0 ATS in their last 7 games against Baltimore

Looking at the numbers this gmae makes me nervous because the number is so low. I think it in overreaction by the public thinking that Marvin Lewis knows the Ravens "secrets". I'm not falling for that stuff anymore. The Bengals are getting better but are still a few good drafts away. One thing really sticks out to me in this game. The Bengals are allowing 121 yards per game rushing total but they allow 160 at home per game. The Ravens are #1 in the league running the ball this season and Jamal Lewis is dominating the whole NFL. The Ravens are going to control the clock in this game and unleash their defense on the Bengals with a banged up Cory Dillon. Conversely the Bungals are 4th to last in the league running the ball. I wouldn't doubt it one bit if the Bengals get shutout in this one.

[This message was edited by ChadC on October 14, 2003 at 10:49 PM.]

Rattler+ · Oct 14, 2003

ChadC
I've been bending the elbow most of the night (hic) so don't mind me if this is a stupid questiom. What do u mean by "The Bengals are allowing 160 yards per game on the ground at home this season and 121 home and away".More the last part. Cincy allows 160yds/game ground at home - OK. But 121 home and away. What does this mean. Thanks.
By the way, I love your Ram and Raven picks, agree low # is scary, must be areason we'll need to uncover. Not big on your Lion pick and look forward to your angle on Chargers abd KC.
Thanks again, All the best.

ChadC · Oct 14, 2003

Rattler,

I just worded it wrongly. They allow 160 per game at home and 121 total meaning both home and away combined.

Rattler+ · Oct 14, 2003

Cool. thanks ChadC. It's probably obvious what you wrote when I read it, but like I said, the brain cells have been invaded tonight, fighting a variety of tasty thirst- quenching demons. So You mean 121 yds. against home and away as average. If my severely impaired thinking is correct, This implies that Cincy is much better vs. the run on the road than at home? There Must be a reason. This Another thing I'll to look why for future games. Does anybody have a view or reason that may be why? For this Sunday, this tidbit definitely points to a possible big day for Lewis and Baltimore in Cincy this Sunday.
Thanks for your angles Chad, appreciated. and good luck.

ChadC · Oct 15, 2003

Upon further review the Bengals have only played two home games and they were against Denver and Pittsburgh. Surprisingly all their road games have been fairly close. Either way, allowing 121-160 yards a game on the ground per game is a recipe for disaster.

ChadC · Oct 16, 2003

Rattler:

I think it was just because they played better running teams at home, that's all. Look for Baltimore to rush for a good 150 and cash in on Bungles miscues.

ChadC · Oct 17, 2003

Adding;

Vikings -3

rebelmav · Oct 17, 2003

I think you should take a look at your pattern of betting. All of them except San Diego are small favorites. The odds are against yoou right off the bat. As we all know, the dog usually takes the money. And that San Diego pick is just bizarre. They stink this year!

Anyway best of luck,

Rebel

ChadC · Oct 18, 2003

What do you classify as a small favorite? Probably 0-3 right. Well Detroit is +3.5 and KC and St Louis are over 3. There is a very strong trend supporting the Chargers this Sunday, you should look it up. Why don't you take your 90 posts out of my thread and stop telling me what's right and wrong.

[This message was edited by ChadC on October 18, 2003 at 02:20 PM.]

winbet · Oct 18, 2003

Chad,

I have noticed you are a tad touchy this week, not your usual calm, helpful self.I know some of these games are driving me crazy as well.

Anyways, I would just like to say The Bengals are playing very good Defense this year in a bend dont break type mode. If the Offensive play calling had been better they could have won 3 more games. Wether this improves no one knows but The Ravens feast on that type of play GL

ChadC · Oct 18, 2003

Yeah, I was a bit snippy there. Just pisses me off when some guy comes in here and questions me and he has less then 100 posts. I love sharing information and ideas with a lot of the good folks in here, this guy just struck a nerve with me. I really like the Ravens, I could care less about the Bengals revival. They haven't played a defense like this yet and Baltimore has every trend working in it's favor this week.

HacheMan · Oct 18, 2003

Chad, do you base most of your picks solely on Trends? Thanks, just asking....

Menses · Oct 18, 2003

We need to disagree without fighting about it..its impossible for everyone to be on the same side but thats what makes this fun.

Hell I like the majority of those pics...As much as it pains me to say it, right or wrong...chargers are the pick this week. Browns damn near lost last week and are getting more and more points as the weeks go by...and that means one thing...DOG

As far as im concerned we are betting on whether or not Ol Marty can keep it together for 4 quarters like he failed to do against Oakland (but at least they covered). Hopefully they can

ChadC · Oct 18, 2003

Regardless of what people say about the Browns defense lets not forget what Jamal Lewis did to them. I think Ladanian Tomlinson is an even better runner than Jamal (Jamal has better line though). I think were gonna see Tomlinson up the gut all day and some play action to David Boston (if he manages not to get arrested this evening).