Week 5

[ofred]

Last week: 4-2 on large plays, 5-2 on smaller, 0-1 on totals

Small:
UW +3 (-128) Friday night game at Rutgers. both teams have very solid defenses, but I think UW has the edge in the passing game, and probably the run game. Jonah Coleman might be the key guy here for the Huskies, not Will Rogers. Coleman is speedy and elusive, with 23 missed tackles in his first 4 games. The Rutgers QB played well vs. VT last week, but his stint at Minnesota was glaringly poor. Rutgers has played 2 creampuffs early, while the Huskies have played a tougher schedule.UW better clean up their penalties, or the offense will get bogged down.

Large:
UNLV -1.5 Their QB, Sluka, deserted the team this week, over a supposed promised NIL payment. I think this will bring the UNLV team together to play harder. They probably don't need much incentive to get up for Mt. West nemesis Fresno. Already some UNLV players are excited about their other QB, who is likely as good a dual threat as Sluka was- maybe a better passer. UNLV has played outstanding defense, is at home, and Fresno's D looked pretty mediocre vs. UNM last week.

 

[ofred]

Early games Saturday:

Large:
Kentucky +15.5 I underestimated Kentucky last week. But I think Vandagriff will continue to improve as the season progresses. Kentucky's OL has not given him much time passing, but he has some mobility and an ability to throw on roll-outs. KY has a very good defense, can run the ball, and Ole Miss has just had it too easy in their early schedule. They are very good team that will likely make the playoff. Kentucky's game vs. Georgia showed that they can matchup with anyone. KY might even pull an upset hwere, or lose 4th quarter.

Maryland +7 Both QBs here are playing really well, with about 75% completion pct. But Bill Edwards might just be the better of the two. Looks like he is one of those gamers that will find a way to win. Indiana impressed beating a bad UCLA team, but otherwise they have played creampuffs. Maryland has a decent running game to complement their passing game. Possible upset. Teams like Indiana at 4-0 will often end up 5-3 or 6-3.

Small:
WKU +14 (-122) Not sure about this BC team. They beat MSU, but were probably outplayed. They kept the score close with Missouri, but only had about 200 yards of offense until late 4th qtr. Beating FSU and Duquesne nothing to brag about. QB Castellanos might not be THAT much improved from 2023. WKU QB, Caden Velktkamp, looks like a nice find for them. Throws a nice ball, spreads the ball around, and can score on a so-so BC defense. Backdoor cover also a possibility.

Oklahoma St./ Kansas St- over 57 Two of the better coaches in CFB. Both have balanced attacks on offense and will have a game plan that should put up points. Oklahoma State's defense is full of poor tacklers, and KSU is vulnerable to a strong passing attack. Just seems like one of those Big 12 games that will be fun to watch and include lots of TDs.

 

[indiana]

Fred........BOL with all your action buddy....
here's to a solid winning weekend......indy

 

[ofred]

Large:

Nebraska -10 Despite losing to a good Illinois team last week, I really can't find much fault with this Nebraska team. They finally have a passing attack to go with a solid running game. And the defense is disruptive and physical. Part of this play is from my eye test of watching Purdue last week. Defensively they are slow and easy to push in the trenches. When Nebraska gets a runner past the DL, and into the secondary, it's gonna be big chunks. Oregon State ran on them at will. The only reason Purdue put up 21 points was that the Beavers have almost as bad a D as Purdue. Mockobee had a field day, but I doubt we see a repeat of that. The Purdue passing game sucked...no other way to say it- and that includes their last 2 games. The Boilermakers are at the bottom of the Big 10 and it might not be close.

Navy -3 (-128) Debated whether too just take the 3.5 at normal juice, but Navy is on the road, and UAB does have a decent QB. Sort of. The run defense is awful, and that bodes poorly for playing Navy. The UAB run game is also pretty mediocre, and most of the UAB offensive stats are inflated by their Alcorn State game. Love the Navy offense, Wing-T with a passing game. Watched some of their plays last week, and it definitely will be hard for UAB to prep for , even off a bye. Lots of misdirection, and plays that just make defenders pause as to where the play is going.

BYU +3 BYU is another team that looks like they've made some improvements from last year. The defense especially. Their QB, Retzlaff, is doing a better job taking care of the ball..and though inconsistent, Baylor's QB situation is worse. Baylor is also not exactly a good home favorite. Coming off a 3-9 season, and there's nothing special about this team. Aranda even admitted he was too militaristic on his team last season, and you wonder if his players were hoping he'd be let go in the offseason. The defense looks a bit better than last season's mess, but maybe not by much.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....thank you for the early thoughts and write-ups.......
have a great weekend buddy.....indy

 

[VegasKnows]

Good luck Ofred!! Nebraska my favorite play this weekend.

 

[ofred]

Good luck Ofred!! Nebraska my favorite play this weekend.

Me also. Purdue is in for a 2 win season.

 

[ofred]

Last large:
WSU +6.5 Wazzu isn't so good to be undefeated for much longer, but John Mateer is just playing lights out. He needs to hit a few more downfield passes to lighten up the defensive fronts, but Boise's D does not look all that good. I'm also not sold on their QB, Maddux Madsen. He reminds me of a game manager. These two teams are not that far geographically, and I expect the Coug fans will travel well. WSU impressed me in their UW game, holding their running game somewhat in check. A lot of enthusiasm, and good coaching, on this team. I think the large spread is a product of Boise's tight loss to Oregon....but the Ducks played like crap that game. Really off their game.

Small:
UCLA +25.5 Oregon blew out the Bevaers before their bye, but I think this will be a tougher contest. UCLA is rebuilding, but it is hard to win by this many points vs. a home team that has some spark on offense. Garbers has protection issues but he throws pretty well on the run. UCLA has some offensive weapons to keep Oregon's offense off the field at times. UCLA has a very good LB corps, which they'll need due to their weak DL. But UCLA might as well at least stack the front 7 and try to penetrate the Duck OL, which has had issues protecting Gabriel. Oregon wins, but doesn't cover.

UCF/ Colorado- over 62 With the Colorado D, UCF might hit 50 by themselves. Colorado can score 4th quarter trying to catch up. Lots of passing by the Buffs will stop the clock. Big runs by UCF will also wear down the Colorado D.

Iowa State -16 Iowa State is a pretty complete team and Houston can't likely keep up in the scoring here. Donovan Smith was supposed to be an asset on offense, but has played poorly. Face it, the Cougars are rebuilding all over the place, and except for a few defensive players, they are going to get stomped now and then.

Wisconsin +14.5 The USC OL has caused Miller Moss, a pocket passer, to be under constant duress. He's a tough kid, but I think Wisconsin comes after him for much of the game. USC does not have very good players on the DL either. High effort guys, but should struggle with the Badger run game. Not discouraged by their loss to Alabama. Bama is in an elite class, while USC is clearly not. Key is the Wisconsin QB, Locke. He's poised, vocal, and has solid decision making skills. Has to be able to hit his receivers consistently.