Week 4

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Last week: 3-3 on large plays, 2-4 on small. Only large loss that really was glaringly bad was taking Wisconsin. I just haven't seen them look that shitty at home in years. Iowa loss(no cover) mostly because of Troy's Devonte Ross just playing out of his head.

Small:
Illinois +8.5 Low total, two good defenses that run a lot. Hard to gauge just how good either team is. Both have a signature win vs. Colorado and Kansas- but otherwise playing creampuffs. Nebraska QB not all that mobile so I'm assuming Illinois defensive schemes will try to cause some indecision and pressure there.

 

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Early games:

Ohio +20 Like many bettors, the QB differential is important to the outcome of the ATS result. Ohio has the better QB here, and he's a decent dual threat. Kentucky's defense will have to win this game, with help from the run game. Still, I think the Ohio offense scores enough to keep it competitive for much of the game. Kentucky also has this game wedged between Georgia and Ole Miss.

Small plays:

Charlotte +29 Indiana has played very well so far, but teams like them tend to have letdown games between more important contests. After all, Indiana is NOT that good. UCLA is THAT bad and make Kurtis Rourke look way better than the QB he is. Charlotte is not just a pushover defensively as in the past, and yet they have QB issues. Indiana might allow a backdoor cover preserving key players for conference games ahead.

Marshall +40 Ohio State has dominated Akron and WMU, but Marshall has a more physical, talented team than either of those. It's rare to see any team win by 40+ three games in a row. Conference games begin next week, and I doubt OSU shows much offensively or defensively that'll give film to their future opponents.

Army-7 Rice has a dreadful QB situation, while Army returns to the triple option this season. Army's secondary won't be exposed to a high flying passing offense here. They should wear down Rice by 2nd half. Army run D looks good.

 

[indiana]

Fred......BOL with all your Sat. action buddy......
here's to a solid winning weekend....indy

 

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Michigan State +5.5 So much love for BC that they deserve. But as well as they've played, BC has issues that you can read about in preseason previews. Michigan State impressed in their Maryland road game, and maybe Aidan Chiles can get the job done. Their run defense is solid, and they should have enough film on Castellanos to hem him in the pocket. Castellanos is 5'9" and I'm not sold that his passing skills are that much better, or that he won't commit turnovers like last season.

Bowling Green +22.5 Usually it's a good idea to bet against a team off a game like BGU had vs. PSU. But they really did play Penn State pretty even, and PSU HC Franklin often pummels these Group of 5 teams at home. BGU is a veteran team, with no glaring weaknesses. Weigman available as an emergency backup for freshman QB Reed. A&M just doesn't look as loaded with talent as in the past. With SEC games on deck, they could be happy with just a W here.

Washington -11.5 The Huskies really did outplay WSU last week and I think they will have just too much offense for NW to keep up. Jack Lausch's first road game as QB in Husky Stadium. I think UW surprises us this season after losing Penix and his WRs to the NFL. The running game could be a great complement to Will Rogers at QB, who is completing 77% of his passes.

FSU -2.5 FSU is having a nightmare start, but this is football and they are at home. Norvell has lit into his team, and that along with him being a good coach, should give them an edge over Cal on a hot, muggy day. Cal is feeling great starting 3-0, but this feels like a letdown game vs. a very hungry team.

ULL +2 Tulane has had two tough, physical games in a row, and the grind has got to have worn them down a bit. Now they're on the road vs. a ULL team with 2 good options at QB and a pretty good run game. ULL has an improved D with some nice transfers on the DL. They haven't played any consequential opponents yet so this will be a good test.

 

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Favorite total:

Fresno/ UNM- over 60 Fresno really can score in bunches, and they will love playing against this awful UNM defense. On the other hand, Fresno looks vulnerable defensively as they somewhat rebuild. UNM has been able to score more often in 2024 due to the hard to catch Devon Dampier. An improviser with the ball, he is elusive and and an improved passer. UNM no longer runs the ball 70% of the time, which gives them a better chance to score and keeps Ds guessing. Clock stoppage more likely with incomplete passes.