Hello Everyone.
Week 4 of the NFL 2012!
YTD: 1-1
Starting BankRoll: $5000
Current BankRoll: $5031.82
1UNIT = $20
+$31.82
Now that the season is underway, and we are getting deep into it;
I will put more effort and bring out more solid plays with better analysis.
Week 4 Plays:
ST LOUIS RAMS +3 (HOME) -110 | 20 UNITS
SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
RAMS +1.5 open, now RAMS +3
62% Public on Seahawks
Weather: Dome Game
Major Trends:
As Away Team 14-28-1 33.3% (One of The worst in the NFL when playing "Away")
West Coast travelling to the East coast - Very early game for the Hawks.
it's 10AM for Seattle Seahawks Players.
It's 12PM for the Saint Louis Rams Players in their Home Dome.
Expect a slow start from the Hawks because of this.
RAMS 2-0 ATS in dome games this year.
biggest game of the year for STL.
Seattle coming off huge victory vs GB feeling amazing.
This is a really great spot for the Rams. They are coming home off a double digit loss to a tough bears run D' in the bears home stadium. The rams were looking ahead for a very important matchup against their divisional opponent seahawks. This is an absolute must-win for the rams or they can kiss their season good-bye. They are currently sitting last in their division and are going to be throwing the kitchen sink at Seattle. Expect steven jackson to show up and pound the hawks Run D'
Another imporant thing to note is Seattle is losing that extra day of rest/practice from playing on monday night against GB. It was obvious they should've lost the game, people are going to overvalue the hawks now because of defeating two tough opponents, GB & Dallas. The key here is they were at Home, and they are an entirely different team at home--More so, than any other team in the NFL. Not to discredit Seattle, they do have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Lynch is a good solid RB as well, expect him to put up numbers like he always does.
However, it won't be enough as the Rams have such a big advantage in spot they are in. The hawks almost always fall flat on the road, but they must also endure psychological aspect of a 10AM playtime.
Seattle playing on a short week after
having to fly cross the country. As tough as they are at home,
they're only 5-13 on the road since the start of the 2010 season;
0-2 as road favorites of a field goal or less.
EAGLES -2 (HOME) -110 | 15 UNITS
NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) - 9/30/2012, 8:30 PM
Open: Eagles -2, current: no change
Public Betting: 76% on GIANTS
Weather: A slight chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Major Trends:
EAGLES are 18-5 ATS after losing by 15 or more.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
Public Perception is riding high on the Giants (Doesn't this seem familiar?)
The Public are jamming the giants as the road underdogs. It's obvious they are
undervaluing the eagles here and overvaluing the giants. After seeing the eagles get beaten badly by arizona, nobody wants these guys. The giants coming off
a blowout victory over carolina back to feeling dominant again. Sell high buy low--one of the fundamentals of smart investing. I'm loving this play because the eagles are in an amazing spot. Giants coming off blowout victory, eagles coming off blowout loss in an epic battle of divisional rivalries. a very solid tough eagles D' at home will be able to slow the giants down. Desean Jackson also has a good matchup and will get the 70+yds + TD
The eagles need to win this game more then the giants do because of scheduling. If the giants get ahead here and win this one, it's going to be really hard to win the division as the eagles. The Eagles want it more, are in a much better spot at home, and have a better, more solid defense than the giants. Eagles get it done @ home
6.5PT Teaser - GB -1 (HOME) | NE +3 (HOME) - | 3 UNITS
*I rarely play teasers, however; I see some value here so it's a must-play for me.
GB -1 @ Home against the New Orleans Saints. The saints are done for the season after that loss to KC in their own home dome. I see Brees trying to carry
the load once again, but he can only carry so much. The saints are absolutely wretched on defense:
PTS ALLOWED: 34.0 (30th)
YDS ALLOWED: 477.3 (Last)
PASS YDS ALLOWED: 262.3 (25th)
RUSH YDS ALLOWED: 215.0 (Last)
There is no possible way the saints will be successful with a defense that bad. Brees will be forcing the ball into spots where he would not normally throw because of how bad his defense is trying to play "catch-up."
On top of that, the head coach being gone is a major factor in play calling and leadership the saints desperately long for. The guy is so good, and I think many people underestimated how much he is really worth. Not to mention Vilma, a big part of the Saints D' is gone.
Aaron Rodgers is playing at an 87QBR which is unlike him. Last year, he averaged 122QBR per game. He's played 3 tough defenses in a row this year. Expect Rodgers to show up big time with big time passes to all of the many weapons GB has to offer.
The saints will not play as good on the road AND outside on grass, which is making the spot for the saints look worse negating most of the 3 loss position they're in. However, GB, too, is coming off a really tough loss against the hawks in their home dome with a terrible game-changing call by the refs.
NE +3 at Home. Good spot for NE here. Coming off back to back loss, very close losses. Bills at home is a solid team, great run game and defensive playmakers.
Good pressure. However, Brady coming off 2 losses is going to be a force to be reckoned with. The bills have holes and give up tons of YDS:
YDS ALLOWED: 348.7 (17th)
PASS YDS ALLOWED: 248.3 (19th)
and that was going against horrid teams (KC & Browns).
The Pats D' have improved this year and they are a premium 1-2 team (Record
is skewed).
The pats will throw everything they have to win this game as this is a divisional game and they are sitting tied for last place. Good solid spot for the Pats with the 2 masters doing what they do best, winning games.
How can you not like +3 here for NE.
However, Pats are pretty banged up and are missing a couple key players which is
why i'm not betting near as much as my top 2 plays.
Major Trends:
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NE hasn't lost 3 games in a row since 10yrs ago.
BOL Everyone! (<)<
Week 4 of the NFL 2012!
YTD: 1-1
Starting BankRoll: $5000
Current BankRoll: $5031.82
1UNIT = $20
+$31.82
Now that the season is underway, and we are getting deep into it;
I will put more effort and bring out more solid plays with better analysis.
Week 4 Plays:
ST LOUIS RAMS +3 (HOME) -110 | 20 UNITS
SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM
RAMS +1.5 open, now RAMS +3
62% Public on Seahawks
Weather: Dome Game
Major Trends:
As Away Team 14-28-1 33.3% (One of The worst in the NFL when playing "Away")
West Coast travelling to the East coast - Very early game for the Hawks.
it's 10AM for Seattle Seahawks Players.
It's 12PM for the Saint Louis Rams Players in their Home Dome.
Expect a slow start from the Hawks because of this.
RAMS 2-0 ATS in dome games this year.
biggest game of the year for STL.
Seattle coming off huge victory vs GB feeling amazing.
This is a really great spot for the Rams. They are coming home off a double digit loss to a tough bears run D' in the bears home stadium. The rams were looking ahead for a very important matchup against their divisional opponent seahawks. This is an absolute must-win for the rams or they can kiss their season good-bye. They are currently sitting last in their division and are going to be throwing the kitchen sink at Seattle. Expect steven jackson to show up and pound the hawks Run D'
Another imporant thing to note is Seattle is losing that extra day of rest/practice from playing on monday night against GB. It was obvious they should've lost the game, people are going to overvalue the hawks now because of defeating two tough opponents, GB & Dallas. The key here is they were at Home, and they are an entirely different team at home--More so, than any other team in the NFL. Not to discredit Seattle, they do have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Lynch is a good solid RB as well, expect him to put up numbers like he always does.
However, it won't be enough as the Rams have such a big advantage in spot they are in. The hawks almost always fall flat on the road, but they must also endure psychological aspect of a 10AM playtime.
Seattle playing on a short week after
having to fly cross the country. As tough as they are at home,
they're only 5-13 on the road since the start of the 2010 season;
0-2 as road favorites of a field goal or less.
EAGLES -2 (HOME) -110 | 15 UNITS
NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) - 9/30/2012, 8:30 PM
Open: Eagles -2, current: no change
Public Betting: 76% on GIANTS
Weather: A slight chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Major Trends:
EAGLES are 18-5 ATS after losing by 15 or more.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
Public Perception is riding high on the Giants (Doesn't this seem familiar?)
The Public are jamming the giants as the road underdogs. It's obvious they are
undervaluing the eagles here and overvaluing the giants. After seeing the eagles get beaten badly by arizona, nobody wants these guys. The giants coming off
a blowout victory over carolina back to feeling dominant again. Sell high buy low--one of the fundamentals of smart investing. I'm loving this play because the eagles are in an amazing spot. Giants coming off blowout victory, eagles coming off blowout loss in an epic battle of divisional rivalries. a very solid tough eagles D' at home will be able to slow the giants down. Desean Jackson also has a good matchup and will get the 70+yds + TD
The eagles need to win this game more then the giants do because of scheduling. If the giants get ahead here and win this one, it's going to be really hard to win the division as the eagles. The Eagles want it more, are in a much better spot at home, and have a better, more solid defense than the giants. Eagles get it done @ home
6.5PT Teaser - GB -1 (HOME) | NE +3 (HOME) - | 3 UNITS
*I rarely play teasers, however; I see some value here so it's a must-play for me.
GB -1 @ Home against the New Orleans Saints. The saints are done for the season after that loss to KC in their own home dome. I see Brees trying to carry
the load once again, but he can only carry so much. The saints are absolutely wretched on defense:
PTS ALLOWED: 34.0 (30th)
YDS ALLOWED: 477.3 (Last)
PASS YDS ALLOWED: 262.3 (25th)
RUSH YDS ALLOWED: 215.0 (Last)
There is no possible way the saints will be successful with a defense that bad. Brees will be forcing the ball into spots where he would not normally throw because of how bad his defense is trying to play "catch-up."
On top of that, the head coach being gone is a major factor in play calling and leadership the saints desperately long for. The guy is so good, and I think many people underestimated how much he is really worth. Not to mention Vilma, a big part of the Saints D' is gone.
Aaron Rodgers is playing at an 87QBR which is unlike him. Last year, he averaged 122QBR per game. He's played 3 tough defenses in a row this year. Expect Rodgers to show up big time with big time passes to all of the many weapons GB has to offer.
The saints will not play as good on the road AND outside on grass, which is making the spot for the saints look worse negating most of the 3 loss position they're in. However, GB, too, is coming off a really tough loss against the hawks in their home dome with a terrible game-changing call by the refs.
NE +3 at Home. Good spot for NE here. Coming off back to back loss, very close losses. Bills at home is a solid team, great run game and defensive playmakers.
Good pressure. However, Brady coming off 2 losses is going to be a force to be reckoned with. The bills have holes and give up tons of YDS:
YDS ALLOWED: 348.7 (17th)
PASS YDS ALLOWED: 248.3 (19th)
and that was going against horrid teams (KC & Browns).
The Pats D' have improved this year and they are a premium 1-2 team (Record
is skewed).
The pats will throw everything they have to win this game as this is a divisional game and they are sitting tied for last place. Good solid spot for the Pats with the 2 masters doing what they do best, winning games.
How can you not like +3 here for NE.
However, Pats are pretty banged up and are missing a couple key players which is
why i'm not betting near as much as my top 2 plays.
Major Trends:
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NE hasn't lost 3 games in a row since 10yrs ago.
BOL Everyone! (<)<
