I've noticed one thing over time...when a major team is having problems, that home field ceases to be worth as much when they are decent-sized favorites. You have the big years - 12-4+ record, when they cover at home 6-2 or better, and you get the bad years where they still do ok when a tiny fav. or dog - KC, DEN, the old BUF all come to mind. But I see this moment for the Chiefs as a 'tweener, a poor reflection of their traditional home edge.
You emphasize the Chiefs O-line, which I grant you is a good edge for them. What about their ridiculous defense against a fairly explosive Texan offense? It's easy to get fixated on a favorite and not recognize that the wheels are nearly coming off
I've been there before.
Good luck whatever you decide...if Holmes is announced as definitely out, I recommend waiting for 6.5 or maybe even 6...I feel confident it breaks through 7.