Week # 3

[Kaboom]

Since 2005, double-digit underdogs on Thursday have gone 12-21 ATS

Since 2005, when two winless teams play, the underdog has gone 70-37-4 (65%)

Since 2005, winless teams have gone 82-63-4 (57%) ATS in Week 3

Underdogs of 7 or more points are 0-5 SU this NFL season losing on average by 15 points per game.

Big Week 3 Dogs: Giants +10.5 at SF Texans +9.5 at JAC Colts +7.5 at BAL Bears +13 at KC Cardinals +12.5 vs. DAL

Since 2002,

99 teams have started 0-3. Just one of those teams (2018 Texans) has made it to the playoffs

Week 3 is must-win for these 0-2 teams: Bengals Patriots Texans Chargers Broncos Vikings Bears Panthers Cardinals

 

[Kaboom]

Used Sf ML only in a few parlays .............NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.

 

[MMgble]

NFL Trends / Week # 3

In Week 2 a Marc Lawrence Tanked Badly …. Not his fault …but it happens

Your Call

Over Spot since 2007

Over /Under Rec 38-18-1 or 68% Over Total

Teams that start season 2-0 Record

Favored at Home

Over /Under Rec 24-8 or 75% Over Total

also when Facing the 1-1 Team

the Total closes between 39 to 55

last 8 years … Over/Under is a Cool 12-1 or 92% Over Total

WOW

If tailing this trend Over /Under 12-1 last 8 years

Sf 2-0 vs Nyg 1-1 / Total 45 ….….. If Tailing the Trend Over the Total

Balt 2-0 vs Indy 1-1 / Total 44 ….. If Tailing the Trend Over the Total

These teams are Under this trend

Over /Under Rec 38-18-1 or 68% Over Total

Team that start season 2-0 Record

Favored at Home

Miami

….................................................................................

NFL Trends / Week # 3

Under Spot 4-16-1 Under Total

when

Teams that start season 2-0 Record

they are Road Fav -3 or More in Non-Div Game

and Total Closes 38 or Higher

The Wow

Last 16 Years with this Trend

0-11 or 100% Under Total

Dallas -12 / Total 43.5 ….. If Tailing the Trend Under 43.5

Phi - 5.5 / Total 46 ….. If Tailing the Trend Under 46

 

[MMgble]

View attachment 75409

 

[MMgble]

View attachment 75410

From season 2000 with any total :

 

[Kaboom]

From season 2000 with any total :
View attachment 75411

Thx bro ... and I really appreciate your input with the data base

Can you please explain do the forum ..... what we need to look for on these ??

Many thx

 

[Kaboom]

Patrick Mahomes is 7-13-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the regular season.

Watch ... here comes the Over this weekend ... whenever I see posts like this ...more times than not ...go opposite ...no shit
Trevor Lawrence is 23-15 (60.5%) to the under in the last three seasons That makes him the most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 88 QBs)

Here comes a Buffalo Bills Cover ... whenever I see posts like this ...more times than not ...go opposite ...no shit
Over the last five years, teams after playing in Denver are 24-10 ATS in their next game, making them the most profitable previous road opponent The Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs vs. the Bills after beating the Broncos last week.

Seattle has forced a punt on just 10% (2-of-20) of opponent drives lowest rate in the NFL they've allowed a first down or touchdown on 46.6% of opponent pass attempts highest rate in the NFL now they face rookie Bryce Young

The Chargers are allowing a league-high 9.0 yards per passing play. 90.7% of the Minnesota yardage has come via passing, the highest rate in the league. Under Brandon Staley, LAC has allowed... 118 catches for 20+ yards (27th) 55 for 30+ yards (32nd) 25 for 40+ yards (29th)

• San Francisco is averaging 32.0 points per game over Brock Purdy‘s nine complete games, scoring 30 or more points in seven of those games.
• San Francisco is averaging a first down or touchdown on 32.3% of their early-down plays, second in the NFL.
• The 49ers are averaging a league-high 5.6 yards per rushing play.
• The Giants are the only team without a sack or takeaway through two weeks.
• The Giants have allowed 14 sacks plus turnovers through two games, tied with the Bears for the most in the league.
• The 49ers have allowed a first down or a touchdown on a league-high 39.1% of running back rushes after a league-low 17.2% rate in 2022.

Enjoy the stats

Let me know if there is an interest with the rest of the games on the slate

with various breakdowns ???

 

[Kaboom]

OUT for the Year

 

[Kaboom]

Not Playing Thursday

 

[sidthekid]

OUT for the Year
View attachment 75419

That's not good news for the CBoys

 

[MMgble]

Thx bro ... and I really appreciate your input with the data base

Can you please explain do the forum ..... what we need to look for on these ??

Many thx

i mean the record mentioned that 12-1 ou last 8 yrs isn't correct

 

[Kaboom]

Ravens ruled out the following players for Sunday’s game vs the Colts: WR Odell Beckham Jr., RB Justice Hill, CB Marlon Humphrey, OT Ronnie Stanley, C Tyler Linderbaum, LB Odafe Oweh and S Marcus Williams.

Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson officially ruled out for Sunday vs. Baltimore.

Commanders ruled out TE Logan Thomas for Sunday’s game vs Washington due to his concussion.

Panthers officially ruled out QB Bryce Young for Sunday’s game in Seattle; Andy Dalton starts vs. Seahawks.

BREAKING: it's official, we have Tropical Storm Ophelia and it looks like it's hitting the DC/Baltimore region during the Commanders & Ravens games per the National Hurricane Center's 2pm model looking at the track of the storm

 

[Kaboom]

New Orleans has allowed 20 or fewer points in 10 straight games. That is their longest streak as a franchise and the longest streak in the league since the 2018-2019 seasons.

 

[Kaboom]

Cancelled or Middled now

$10 Sea ML - 185 .... just middled it ....

$15 Lar .... because of Burrow status ... cancelled

NFL Rec 5-2.. so far ... 2 plays pending tonight

Wagered a week ago

Rookie QB'S are 2-13 SU at Century Link Field in Seattle

$10 Seattle ML - 185

Just going to middle this game ... for some reason ...don't trust the Hawks

$10 Sea ML ...now a middle

 

[Kaboom]

Rams ... as Non Con Road Dogs of 6 or Less Points vs teams with win % below .1000

9-0 ATS

Play

$15 Rams + 3 - 145.... using them in a few parlays too

Just Middling .... I don't like the status of Burrow and Rams Receiver

$15 Lar + 3 ....just a middle now

 

[Kaboom]

Tenn

0-8 ATS off SU Non Div win vs teams above .400 Win % that are off a SU Ats loss

Playing just the ML here

$10 Cleve ML - 180

Keeping this for now ... but may just middle ...a bit later

 

[Kaboom]

Updated Plays

NFL Rec 5-2

$10 Buff - 5 - 140

$10 Cleve ML - 180

$15 Dallas - 11 - 136 ...... Arizona 0-7 ATS as a Home Dog

 

[Kaboom]

Dallas ... 9-3 SU / Ats Last 12 as an Away Fav

Phi ... 11-1 SU / 5-7 Ats as an Away Fav ...... using Phi in a ML Parlay

Denver 1-8 SU / 4-5 Ats as an Away Dog

Jac 1-3 SU / 0-4 Ats as a Home Fav

 

[Kaboom]

 

[one51rum]

gl brother