[h=1]Week 16 fantasy projections[/h][h=3]Matt Schaub, Reggie Bush and Miles Austin look like good starts[/h]
By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders
I could sit here and bemoan the fact that the fantasy football playoffs are random -- such as me winning this past week by one half-point thanks to Chris Johnson's 94-yard touchdown run. Or me nearly blowing a 50-point lead the week before when the Seahawks' defense posted one of the top 10 fantasy football performances of all time.
I also could regale you with the story of how fantasy football playoffs aren't random -- such as how I used our matchup projection system in another league to correctly choose my semifinal opponent (which happens to be a nice wrinkle in the rules that I endorse). Yes, I could wax philosophical like this, but I won't. You're here to get help from me about your own matchups in your playoffs.
So without further ado, here are the best and worst fantasy football matchups for Week 16:
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Matt Schaub (plus-5 points)
The Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection continued its recent hot streak against Indianapolis last week, and Houston now has a home game against Minnesota's 29th-ranked pass defense according to DVOA. The Vikings also give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. To boot, they're coming off a game where Sam Bradford threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns against them.
Sam Bradford (plus-3 points)
<offer>Speaking of Bradford, he figures to have another big game this week against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 28th in DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Last week, they gave up 32.5 points to Drew Brees, but they also gave up 35.8 points to Nick Foles the week before last.
Colin Kaepernick (minus-6 points)
Since he became San Francisco's starting quarterback, Kaepernick has been one of the most prolific fantasy QBs, averaging 21.2 points per game. But he has yet to face a pass defense as good as Seattle's. (Chicago's pass defense has proved to be worse than we thought at the time he played them.) The Seahawks rank third in pass defense DVOA and second in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Also, this game's in Seattle, where the entire team seems to raise its game.
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Russell Wilson (minus-3 points)
Wilson will be helming the offensive huddle opposite Kaepernick this week, and he too has been on a tear of late, including a 29.8-point performance against the aforementioned faltering Bears defense. Before going to a vanilla defense in the second half against New England, San Francisco showed it can slow down the best offense in the league -- on the road. The 49ers are fifth in pass defense DVOA and sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (plus-3 points)
We recommended Bush against Jacksonville's No. 28 run defense last week, and he came through with a 100-yard game. This week, he has another home game against another porous unit: the No. 32 Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and gave up 26.9 points to Seattle's backs just last week. With Daniel Thomas out, Bush will be the primary beneficiary of Buffalo's largesse.
DeAngelo Williams (plus-2 points) and Mike Tolbert (plus-2 points)
Williams and Tolbert resurrected their seasons last week against the San Diego Chargers, who had the No. 10 run defense DVOA going into the game. Their matchup gets infinitely easier in Week 16 as the No. 27 Oakland Raiders take a trip to Charlotte. Even after totally shutting down the Chiefs' offense last week (which isn't saying much), the Raiders have still allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Vick Ballard (plus-2 points)
Since the rest of the Colts' backfield has been injured, Ballard has quietly put together a streak of three consecutive double-digit fantasy games. This week, he faces a Kansas City Chiefs run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Last week, the Chiefs allowed double-digit points to both Darren McFadden and backup Mike Goodson.
Steven Jackson (minus-3 points)
As we've been chronicling all season, Jackson's Week 16 opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are horrible against the pass, but great against the run. The Buccaneers still rank third in run defense DVOA despite an uncharacteristically charitable performance last week. Unlike that New Orleans game, however, this one's in Tampa. Jackson has scored double-digit points in every game since the team reduced Daryl Richardson's role, but that streak is likely to end Sunday.
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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<!-- end inline 2 -->BenJarvus Green-Ellis (minus-2 points)
Similarly, Green-Ellis' streak of double-digit games stands at five, but the Pittsburgh Steelers own the No. 10 run defense DVOA and allow the fifth-fewest points to opposing backs. With Ike Taylor out, teams have focused on passing the ball against Pittsburgh, so Green-Ellis is likely to be a victim of the game plan this week.
[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Cecil Shorts (plus-1 point) and Justin Blackmon (plus-1 point)
Since Chad Henne became Jacksonville's starting quarterback, and the team changed some of the routes they run in the passing game, Shorts and Blackmon have turned into legitimate fantasy options. This week, they face a New England Patriots pass defense ranked 23rd in DVOA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. It also helps that this game might easily be 31-3 at halftime, meaning that the Jaguars will be forced to throw on almost every down.
Miles Austin (plus-1 point)
With Dez Bryant trying to catch the ball with eight fingers -- he wasn't very good at it even with 10 fingers -- Austin became a more attractive option to Tony Romo the past two weeks. In Week 16, Austin faces a Saints pass defense that's ranked 25th in DVOA and allows the third-most points to opposing wide receivers. They shut down Josh Freeman & Co. at home last week, but it's a much taller task to shut down Romo & Co. at Cowboys Stadium.
Brian Hartline (plus-1 point)
With Davone Bess out last week, Hartline became Ryan Tannehill's first, second and third option against Jacksonville. Bess is likely out once again this week against the Bills, so Hartline will continue to get the bulk of the targets. In the past three games, Buffalo's pass defense has allowed an average of 12.4 points to opposing No. 1 wideouts.
Danny Amendola (plus-1 point)
Amendola is Bradford's safety blanket. When he's not visiting team doctors and physical therapists, the Rams' pass offense looks competent. When he is, it doesn't. Well, he came out of Week 15 unscathed, and now faces the aforementioned Tampa Bay pass defense. In addition to their sorry DVOA ranking, the Buccaneers also allow the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Michael Crabtree (minus-1 point) and Randy Moss (minus-1 point)
Similarly, Crabtree seems to be Kaepernick's favorite receiver. Since Kaepernick took over, Crabtree is averaging over 10 points per game. For Moss, Mario Manningham's injury has given him an increased role, which he took full advantage of against New England. As already mentioned, however, Seattle is no New England. In addition to their pass defense DVOA ranking, the Seahawks give up the second-fewest points to opposing wideouts.
Josh Gordon (minus-1 point) and Greg Little (minus-1 point)
Gordon is another player who has flown under the fantasy radar all season, but don't jump on the bandwagon this week. The Browns face the Broncos in Denver. Champ Bailey, Von Miller and the Denver defense rank sixth in pass defense DVOA and allow the ninth-fewest points to opposing wideouts.
[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
Marcedes Lewis (plus-1 point)
We already know New England's pass defense isn't that good, but they're especially bad against tight ends, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to that position. Last week, they even allowed San Francisco's second tight end into the end zone.
Jermichael Finley (plus-1 point)
Finley is a headache, I know. But he should be able to have an above-average game at home against a Tennessee Titans defense ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA and 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Vernon Davis (minus-1 point)
By now, you should know that Davis isn't having the kind of season you'd expect from an elite tight end. Most of it is that defenses are keying on him, but it's also been the case that he and Kaepernick still aren't on the same page in terms of timing and chemistry. If you haven't already been benching him for a while, please do so this week against Seattle -- for your own sake.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]Finally, below is the list of the week's elite fantasy players I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 16 Projections For Elite Players[/h]
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By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders
I could sit here and bemoan the fact that the fantasy football playoffs are random -- such as me winning this past week by one half-point thanks to Chris Johnson's 94-yard touchdown run. Or me nearly blowing a 50-point lead the week before when the Seahawks' defense posted one of the top 10 fantasy football performances of all time.
I also could regale you with the story of how fantasy football playoffs aren't random -- such as how I used our matchup projection system in another league to correctly choose my semifinal opponent (which happens to be a nice wrinkle in the rules that I endorse). Yes, I could wax philosophical like this, but I won't. You're here to get help from me about your own matchups in your playoffs.
So without further ado, here are the best and worst fantasy football matchups for Week 16:
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Matt Schaub (plus-5 points)
The Schaub-to-Andre Johnson connection continued its recent hot streak against Indianapolis last week, and Houston now has a home game against Minnesota's 29th-ranked pass defense according to DVOA. The Vikings also give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. To boot, they're coming off a game where Sam Bradford threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns against them.
Sam Bradford (plus-3 points)
<offer>Speaking of Bradford, he figures to have another big game this week against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 28th in DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Last week, they gave up 32.5 points to Drew Brees, but they also gave up 35.8 points to Nick Foles the week before last.
Colin Kaepernick (minus-6 points)
Since he became San Francisco's starting quarterback, Kaepernick has been one of the most prolific fantasy QBs, averaging 21.2 points per game. But he has yet to face a pass defense as good as Seattle's. (Chicago's pass defense has proved to be worse than we thought at the time he played them.) The Seahawks rank third in pass defense DVOA and second in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Also, this game's in Seattle, where the entire team seems to raise its game.
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan. Pts. |
| QB | HOU | Matt Schaub | +5 |
| QB | IND | Andrew Luck | +3 |
| QB | STL | Sam Bradford | +3 |
| RB | MIA | Reggie Bush | +3 |
| RB | CAR | DeAngelo Williams | +2 |
| QB | KC | Ricky Stanzi | +2 |
| QB | DAL | Tony Romo | +2 |
| RB | IND | Vick Ballard | +2 |
| WR | CAR | Steve Smith | +2 |
| RB | DET | Mikel Leshoure | +2 |
| RB | CAR | Mike Tolbert | +2 |
| QB | MIA | Ryan Tannehill | +1 |
| QB | JAC | Chad Henne | +1 |
| RB | NE | Danny Woodhead | +1 |
| TE | CAR | Greg Olsen | +1 |
| WR | GB | James Jones | +1 |
| WR | GB | Randall Cobb | +1 |
| WR | JAC | Cecil Shorts | +1 |
| RB | NE | Shane Vereen | +1 |
| RB | DET | Joique Bell | +1 |
| WR | DAL | Miles Austin | +1 |
| WR | MIA | Brian Hartline | +1 |
| WR | HOU | Kevin Walter | +1 |
| WR | JAC | Justin Blackmon | +1 |
| TE | KC | Tony Moeaki | +1 |
| WR | KC | Dexter McCluster | +1 |
| WR | IND | Reggie Wayne | +1 |
| WR | CAR | Louis Murphy | +1 |
| WR | NE | Wes Welker | +1 |
| WR | STL | Danny Amendola | +1 |
| TE | JAC | Marcedes Lewis | +1 |
| WR | IND | T.Y. Hilton | +1 |
| TE | GB | Jermichael Finley | +1 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Russell Wilson (minus-3 points)
Wilson will be helming the offensive huddle opposite Kaepernick this week, and he too has been on a tear of late, including a 29.8-point performance against the aforementioned faltering Bears defense. Before going to a vanilla defense in the second half against New England, San Francisco showed it can slow down the best offense in the league -- on the road. The 49ers are fifth in pass defense DVOA and sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (plus-3 points)
We recommended Bush against Jacksonville's No. 28 run defense last week, and he came through with a 100-yard game. This week, he has another home game against another porous unit: the No. 32 Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and gave up 26.9 points to Seattle's backs just last week. With Daniel Thomas out, Bush will be the primary beneficiary of Buffalo's largesse.
DeAngelo Williams (plus-2 points) and Mike Tolbert (plus-2 points)
Williams and Tolbert resurrected their seasons last week against the San Diego Chargers, who had the No. 10 run defense DVOA going into the game. Their matchup gets infinitely easier in Week 16 as the No. 27 Oakland Raiders take a trip to Charlotte. Even after totally shutting down the Chiefs' offense last week (which isn't saying much), the Raiders have still allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Vick Ballard (plus-2 points)
Since the rest of the Colts' backfield has been injured, Ballard has quietly put together a streak of three consecutive double-digit fantasy games. This week, he faces a Kansas City Chiefs run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Last week, the Chiefs allowed double-digit points to both Darren McFadden and backup Mike Goodson.
Steven Jackson (minus-3 points)
As we've been chronicling all season, Jackson's Week 16 opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are horrible against the pass, but great against the run. The Buccaneers still rank third in run defense DVOA despite an uncharacteristically charitable performance last week. Unlike that New Orleans game, however, this one's in Tampa. Jackson has scored double-digit points in every game since the team reduced Daryl Richardson's role, but that streak is likely to end Sunday.
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan. Pts. |
| QB | SF | Colin Kaepernick | -6 |
| QB | CHI | Jay Cutler | -4 |
| QB | CLE | Brandon Weeden | -4 |
| QB | MIN | Christian Ponder | -4 |
| QB | SEA | Russell Wilson | -3 |
| RB | STL | Steven Jackson | -3 |
| QB | SD | Philip Rivers | -2 |
| QB | TEN | Jake Locker | -2 |
| QB | ARI | Ryan Lindley | -2 |
| RB | CIN | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | -2 |
| WR | SF | Michael Crabtree | -1 |
| RB | ARI | Beanie Wells | -1 |
| RB | JAC | Montell Owens | -1 |
| WR | CLE | Josh Gordon | -1 |
| TE | MIN | Kyle Rudolph | -1 |
| TE | SF | Vernon Davis | -1 |
| WR | SF | Randy Moss | -1 |
| WR | TEN | Nate Washington | -1 |
| WR | CHI | Alshon Jeffery | -1 |
| WR | TEN | Kenny Britt | -1 |
| WR | CLE | Greg Little | -1 |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->BenJarvus Green-Ellis (minus-2 points)
Similarly, Green-Ellis' streak of double-digit games stands at five, but the Pittsburgh Steelers own the No. 10 run defense DVOA and allow the fifth-fewest points to opposing backs. With Ike Taylor out, teams have focused on passing the ball against Pittsburgh, so Green-Ellis is likely to be a victim of the game plan this week.
[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Cecil Shorts (plus-1 point) and Justin Blackmon (plus-1 point)
Since Chad Henne became Jacksonville's starting quarterback, and the team changed some of the routes they run in the passing game, Shorts and Blackmon have turned into legitimate fantasy options. This week, they face a New England Patriots pass defense ranked 23rd in DVOA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. It also helps that this game might easily be 31-3 at halftime, meaning that the Jaguars will be forced to throw on almost every down.
Miles Austin (plus-1 point)
With Dez Bryant trying to catch the ball with eight fingers -- he wasn't very good at it even with 10 fingers -- Austin became a more attractive option to Tony Romo the past two weeks. In Week 16, Austin faces a Saints pass defense that's ranked 25th in DVOA and allows the third-most points to opposing wide receivers. They shut down Josh Freeman & Co. at home last week, but it's a much taller task to shut down Romo & Co. at Cowboys Stadium.
Brian Hartline (plus-1 point)
With Davone Bess out last week, Hartline became Ryan Tannehill's first, second and third option against Jacksonville. Bess is likely out once again this week against the Bills, so Hartline will continue to get the bulk of the targets. In the past three games, Buffalo's pass defense has allowed an average of 12.4 points to opposing No. 1 wideouts.
Danny Amendola (plus-1 point)
Amendola is Bradford's safety blanket. When he's not visiting team doctors and physical therapists, the Rams' pass offense looks competent. When he is, it doesn't. Well, he came out of Week 15 unscathed, and now faces the aforementioned Tampa Bay pass defense. In addition to their sorry DVOA ranking, the Buccaneers also allow the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Michael Crabtree (minus-1 point) and Randy Moss (minus-1 point)
Similarly, Crabtree seems to be Kaepernick's favorite receiver. Since Kaepernick took over, Crabtree is averaging over 10 points per game. For Moss, Mario Manningham's injury has given him an increased role, which he took full advantage of against New England. As already mentioned, however, Seattle is no New England. In addition to their pass defense DVOA ranking, the Seahawks give up the second-fewest points to opposing wideouts.
Josh Gordon (minus-1 point) and Greg Little (minus-1 point)
Gordon is another player who has flown under the fantasy radar all season, but don't jump on the bandwagon this week. The Browns face the Broncos in Denver. Champ Bailey, Von Miller and the Denver defense rank sixth in pass defense DVOA and allow the ninth-fewest points to opposing wideouts.
[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]
Marcedes Lewis (plus-1 point)
We already know New England's pass defense isn't that good, but they're especially bad against tight ends, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to that position. Last week, they even allowed San Francisco's second tight end into the end zone.
Jermichael Finley (plus-1 point)
Finley is a headache, I know. But he should be able to have an above-average game at home against a Tennessee Titans defense ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA and 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Vernon Davis (minus-1 point)
By now, you should know that Davis isn't having the kind of season you'd expect from an elite tight end. Most of it is that defenses are keying on him, but it's also been the case that he and Kaepernick still aren't on the same page in terms of timing and chemistry. If you haven't already been benching him for a while, please do so this week against Seattle -- for your own sake.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]Finally, below is the list of the week's elite fantasy players I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 16 Projections For Elite Players[/h]
| Pos | Team | Player | Proj | Pos | Team | Player | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | CAR | Cam Newton | +6 | WR | HOU | Andre Johnson | +2 |
| QB | NE | Tom Brady | +4 | WR | DAL | Dez Bryant | +1 |
| QB | GB | Aaron Rodgers | +2 | WR | DEN | Demaryius Thomas | +1 |
| QB | DEN | Peyton Manning | +1 | WR | DET | Calvin Johnson | +1 |
| QB | NO | Drew Brees | 0 | WR | DEN | Eric Decker | +1 |
| QB | ATL | Matt Ryan | -1 | WR | TB | Vincent Jackson | +1 |
| RB | KC | Jamaal Charles | +3 | WR | ATL | Roddy White | -1 |
| RB | DAL | DeMarco Murray | +3 | WR | NYG | Victor Cruz | -1 |
| RB | NE | Stevan Ridley | +2 | WR | ATL | Julio Jones | -1 |
| RB | BAL | Ray Rice | +2 | WR | CIN | A.J. Green | -1 |
| RB | SF | Frank Gore | 0 | WR | SD | Danario Alexander | -1 |
| RB | TB | Doug Martin | -1 | WR | CHI | Brandon Marshall | -1 |
| RB | HOU | Arian Foster | -1 | TE | HOU | Owen Daniels | +1 |
| RB | BUF | C.J. Spiller | -2 | TE | DAL | Jason Witten | +1 |
| RB | WAS | Alfred Morris | -2 | TE | NE | Aaron Hernandez | +1 |
| RB | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | -2 | TE | PIT | Heath Miller | 0 |
| RB | CLE | Trent Richardson | -4 | TE | NO | Jimmy Graham | 0 |
| RB | MIN | Adrian Peterson | -5 | TE | ATL | Tony Gonzalez | -1 |
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